Saturday 12/26/2009- 6 Tracks

[MitchS]

Sheet is up at the website for AQU,CRC,DED,SA,TAM and TP. I'll be back in a few for a brief explanation on ONE WAY to use the sheets profitably. Hope everyone had a great Christmas :). Have a profitable day at the track.

M

[MitchS]

VERY briefly, I'm going to show ONE WAY to use my sheets profitably but it takes patience :ThmbUp:

The sheet itself-

Race shape analysis-

Look at the Q/S and RP along with the H2f and H4f with the 2BL and 4BL to understand how the race is going to set up. Eliminate any horse as a contender that doesn't fit the race shape profile.

SPD-Late

The sheet is defaulted on SPD. Were generally looking at the top 5 SPD horses and or look for gaps in the numbers. There may be big gaps were we are only looking at the top two etc.

If the SPD and LATE are both #1 in the race pay attebtion!

P

Look for purse drops as indicated by a - value.

Tnotes

Look for trouble in the last race.


Secondary factors

I'm working on a combo sheet that includes all of the unnecessary factors and eliminates some of the non usable factors on the present sheet.

Recency-

Raced within the last 21 days or worked out within last 18 days. Higher class horses can sometimes look past this?

Odds-

ML odds usually 12/1 or better and horses odds the last two races were reasonable. Not like 30/1 and 50/1 on both races etc. Usually within 12/1 or better on at least one of the last 2.

AGE

6 Year olds and under win the majority of races.

Horses win %, J% and T%

Horse needs to be a winner this year or within the last 6 races or so. Jockey and Trainer WIN % needs to be reasonable. J%= 6-7%+ T%= 8-9%+

Hitting the board last two-

Horse needs to have finished in the money or a reasonable 4th or 5th in one of the last two. LAST RACE beaten lengths cant be over 15.

Pace call, last 2

Must have a reasonable number within 4.5 lengths or so at the pace call with one of the last two races. This can be determinate on the horse running style and past record.

P

Generally speaking must not be going up in purse value. Either staying the same or close to the same value or dropping from its last race.

The process

Start at the top rated horse and work your way down with these secondary factors. If the top 5 or so don't qualify you may consider passing the race depending on the overall numbers relating to the rest of the field.