Stop betting after meeting your goal?

[netherworld]

This is absolutely NOT meant to be a Karl bashing thread. I would like to look more closely at one of his tactics, that is, leaving the track after reaching your daily goal.

On the face of it it doesn't make sense to me to stop betting when you're up unless you are playing a negative expectation game like roulette or craps. But assuming a winning horse player, why would you quit after reaching a predetermined limit?

I went into my records and arbitrarily picked 106 consecutive win bets over 22 racing days. On 3 of these days I doubled my daily bankroll before the end of the race card. If I had stopped there it would have cost me money on two days (a little over 6 units) and saved me on the other (one unit).

This of course is a small sample and I would like to see if others' records show similar results. So for those of you who can query their "betting log" and get a larger sample, what are your findings?

Could this method be reasonable for the player who loses, say, equal to or less than the track take?

[hurrikane]

IMHO some of the things Karl says have some credence. But you have to expand the envelope a little.

In anything involving risk I think you have to have a plan stating when you get in and when you get out. In Karls case he does it by the day. In my case I do it by increase in bankroll. Once I double I make a withdrawal. Same principle applied to a different bank. Karls is daily, mine is cumulative, could be day, month, or, well..never experienced a year but I suppose it could happen.
With this in mind I can't really query what you ask..it wouldn't apply.

To make any assumptions on a small sample like this is folly in my opinion. Next week the results would be different.

I know serveral players that could make money using Karls method. I know them to consistantly be way ahead early on and lose it all and then some. by the end of the day.
My guess is they would find anouther way to lose even if they used Karls method...bless their little hearts. :D

PS..first thing I do when I see these guys ahead is buy them a beer...then I know the moneys going back in the pot.

[cj]

For what it is worth, this is how I do things...

I start each January 1st with a $2,000 bankroll. At the end of each month, I have all profits less $200 sent to my bank. So, if all goes well, I have $2,200 at the end of January, $2,400 at the end of February, and so forth. Of course, I don't win every month, but I do most, usually 9 or 10 of 12. When I have a losing month, I just leave the account alone and continue on the next month. I do things monthly mainly due to my method of play. I play win and exactas, usually the longer priced types. Three years of record keeping shows I cash between 8-12% of my bets, not a very high percentage. If I tried to "keep score" on a daily or weekly basis, I think it would have a negative effect.

At the end of each year, after the big Thanksgiving weekend, I take all but the original $2,000 from my account, and we have a nice Christmas. That is why I leave the $200 extra in each month. I do use a different account in December for the occasional spot play I may find, but I take most of the month off for wagering purposes.

CJ

[jackad]

CJ,
May I ask what percentage of your bankroll you bet on win bets?
Jack

[takeout]

I kept records on this once for about ten months and was surprised at how much I gave back.

[alysheba88]

Great discussion. Like with many horse racing strategies there is no ultimate right answer. But having some enforced discipline strategy is far superior to having none at all.

I think alot depends on how often you play. Is it every day? Once a week? Twice a month?

I do think there needs to be some specific dollar amount that you will leave with when you are up. Again all varying depending on bankroll, financial situation, etc.

If I am up $400 early on, I would commit to leaving a $280 winner.
No matter what happens I have to leave the day a $280 winner at worse.

If I get up say $100 early I may not necessarily make such a committment (to leave a winner) since the amounts are smaller.

But I do think there is something very physchological at work about leaving a winner. It puts you in a much better frame of mind when you return the next time. To me there is nothing worse than seeing someone up big for the day and leaving a loser. Such a lost opportunity.

In a perfect world if we had no emotions each bet would be entirely independent of each other and we would bet when we have an "edge" regardless of whether we were winners or losers for the day. But gambling is an emotional event, and its very hard to take or try to take all the emotion out of it. The more disciplined the better off we will all be.

The ultimate test for all of us is how do you reacte when up big? What about down big? The decisions you make during these extreme times will do more to determine your success or failure than anything else.

[cj]

Originally posted by jackad
CJ,
May I ask what percentage of your bankroll you bet on win bets?
Jack

I bet $30 to $40 per race. I bet 20 to 30 races 3 to 4 times per week. So I guess that's 1.5 to 2% initially, and decreases as my bankroll builds, as I don't change the amount. When I play exactas, it is almost always a straight exacta, two horse box, or one horse over two horse wheel.

CJ

[Show Me the Wire]

FWIW, in theory Karl has a sound idea of setting a goal or target to reach. If I remember corporate finance, investment is based on projected income or in other words a goal or target.

I too have a similiar philosophy of earning a return on my investment, but my common obstacle is the market or odds. I target what races are playable in my opinion and if the rate of return is acceptable I will make my wager. But of course in the real world the opportunities are not always there and I end up sitting on the sidelines until my next opportunity comes knocking.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality

[Larry Hamilton]

This whole thread troubles me.

Why do we go to the track? To make money.

Why do we gamble? Because we know and can prove we have some edge.

Why would we leave the track before the contest is over? ????????????????????????????????

So you could say that because we have the opportunity (the track is open) and skill to win (we have measured it), it isn't gambling, it's investing. Have you ever heard a day trader say, "I've made enough money today, think I'll take a nap."

[Show Me the Wire]

Larry:

I know I can't make money betting or investing in every event. If I invested in day trading, I would not trade just because the opportunity is present.

I attend racing to make a profit, not purely for entertainment. I understand I do not have the skill level to beat the takeout, the connections, and the general public in every single event or even in the majority of events. I agree with your assertion about knowing you have an edge. To me it is just as valuable to know when you do not have an edge.

I wait for opportunties as opposed to the shot gun approach. Let me correct myself if I see a perceived opportunity I do not use a single round, I shot gun it. See my thread about the insurance strategy if you are alive for a nice sum in the third leg.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality

[ljb]

My personal experience taught me to quit when ahead. I have usually always given it back and then some if I hang around to long. I set a percent of bankroll as a stop loss. That is if after two races I am up 100 percent I will set a stop loss at 50%. For me it feels much better to leave ahead. Most gamblers gamble for the thrill. The few that do it for the money have some method of money management which gives them a better chance of showing a profit at the end of the day.
Well wife calls I gotta jump now.

[Larry Hamilton]

THere is another point to be made here. When you say you are leaving the track because you have made your goal, are you saying you will NEVER return? Of course not. So tomorrow when you return, you are still playing with your money against the same invisible opponents, with your same skill level. All you have done is postpone the inevitable--over the span of some time, your winnings and losing will balance to the numbers you found when you measured your skill level.

If you found that you have a win rate of 50% and an ROI of 1.2, guess what. After 6 months of dayly treks to the track your win rate will be 50% and your ROI will be 1.2 no MATTER HOW MANY TIMES YOU QUIT EARLY AND WENT HOME WITH THE "GOAL"

[Show Me the Wire]

Larry:

Are you saying my win rate would be constant no matter how many races, I bet? I do not think so, no I know it won't stay the same.

Wait maybe we are talking about semantics? I cannot speak for anyone else or their goals only mine. My goal is to receive a min. rate of return on my investment and I understand I have an edge in certain situations. So yes I want to for example maintain that 1.2 over time. If I invested in every event, I would not be able to maintain that 1.2 return over time.

As you say it evens out overtime, because the number of playable events are not constant on a daily basis.

If your question is do I leave if I hit my rate of return early? The answer is it depends, on whether or not another opportunity will be available to increas my return for the day.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality

[Larry Hamilton]

you win

[PaceAdvantage]

Originally posted by Larry Hamilton
Have you ever heard a day trader say, "I've made enough money today, think I'll take a nap."

Yes, I have heard many daytraders say this. Many daytraders set daily goals and then quit. Not sure if this is the right strategy, but I know it is a semi-popular one, if you go by message board postings.....

[Show Me the Wire]

Larry:

I am not in a contest with you to win. I am trying to understand the logic of what you posted and how it would apply to me.

The easiest method for me to learn is using Q & A.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality

[ljb]

Larry Hamilton's words" If you found that you have a win rate of 50% and an ROI of 1.2, guess what. After 6 months of dayly treks to the track your win rate will be 50% and your ROI will be 1.2 no MATTER HOW MANY TIMES YOU QUIT EARLY AND WENT HOME WITH THE "GOAL"
"
Larry my position is:
If you have a 50% win rate and an ROI of 1.2, you win the first two races for an Roi of say 2.8. YOu then go home. Now your win rate is 100 and your roi is 2.8. That is, by leaving early you will improve both your win rate and your roi.

[Lefty]

For me, prob. with this line of thinking is: on a bad day with no wins you bet every loser but on a good day, say, with 4 wins you quit on first one and don't get benefit of other 3. I never did think this made any sense. But if it works for you, keep doing it. Many diff opinions, many diff styles, that's horse racing, hmmm?

[penguinfan]

Two theories here for me, first when I play at home it is for real money making purposes and I may not play a race on the card at all, though if the races all had an opportunity I liked then I would play all 10, that has never happened. Usually 1-3 races a night when my track is running and I bet only WIN tickets. When I go to the track for fun I take a certain amount of money and play all 10 races, or as long as the money lasts:eek: I will play exacts, tri's, pick-3's etc... If I am up early it is not uncommon for me to have a wager on a horse in one of the later races that is 5 times my normal wager, you'll know when I do, it's when my horse finishes "up the track". When I go to the track it's to GAMBLE baby, at home it's investing to me and I do a good job of keeping them seperate.

Penguinfan

[Shacopate]

Hats off to PA for putting this board together.

Personally, I like to leave the track on a postive note. I think the game is alot like golf. Missed puts and tough beats can carry over to the next hole or race. The latter can lead to chasing which can be very dangerous.

[karlskorner]

I have no idea which will be a "winning race". By wagering the same amount in every race I am dealing in probabilities, the purpose of flat betting is not to get caught in "switch betting".
By wagering on every race possible, makes the percentages work for me. With a sound system of handicapping, the more times I wager, the more times I can win. "Best bet of the day" is a sucker bet.

Why set a goal ? To quote Micahel Douglas in Wallstreet "
" GREED is good "

[GameTheory]

Originally posted by karlskorner
I have no idea which will be a "winning race". By wagering the same amount in every race I am dealing in probabilities, the purpose of flat betting is not to get caught in "switch betting".
By wagering on every race possible, makes the percentages work for me. With a sound system of handicapping, the more times I wager, the more times I can win. "Best bet of the day" is a sucker bet.


I think most will agree with the above, and is exactly the reason why so many don't understand why you might go home early. If you go home, you aren't betting on every race possible. It seems like pure superstition...

[Rick]

Although I'm not generally in favor of quitting early, I can see some reasons why it might be good. One reason is that it might stabilize the income somewhat. Another reason is that it might give one an occasional break from the usual routine. Going home early a winner would be a big psychological boost in my opinion. I find that I need to get away from the daily grind frequently just to feel like a real person instead of a machine. Just my opinion.

[karlskorner]

My Random House dictionary defines superstition: "An inrational belief in the ominous signifincance of a particular thing or circumstance. A custom or act based on such a thing". People who didn't wager on Friday the 13th are a good example. If it is superstition than it's "cut off at the pass" by a goal reached.

[Tom]

I have a frined who play blackjack frequently - a former horse player who found abetter game, to quote him. I don't understand his method, but it involves playing in sessions. He has goals, and when he hits them, he stops and then starts over, maybe the same night, but at different tables. He has a loss limit that prevents him from tapping out. Works for him-he is a consistent winner.
(He has this neat little gimick to ensure he takes money home with him - it is a little black box made out of some very strong material - you can drive a trcuk over it and it will not open. There is a little slot in it where you slid ein your mony, and then the only way you can get it out is to use the key and open it. The idea is to leave the key home so anything you put in it stays there.)

The point is, you can bet all the races or none of the races. Or some number in between. It doesn't matter which races or when, just as long as the slection of races does not affect your handicapping of the races or your betting decsions. I react differently if I am up or down. If I am way up, I get careless, if I am way down, I either get real conservative or real ballsy.
Discipline is important, and if stopping after hitting a goal works, do it.

[DJofSD]

Two posters to this thread have made what I think is an important point: stopping for the day while you're ahead.

While netherworld does not explicitely state quiting after cashing a ticket, it's implied in the posting that as soon as he's achieved his daily target, he would stop. Of coarse, you could be ahead even after losing additional bets.

I would think that psychologically, reaching your goal and having the last wager beinging a winning one has got to be a big boost. I know I would much rather reach the end of the day with more money in my pocket than I started with AND have my last ticket a cashable one.

Unless you are some one of the caliber of Dick that can "bet with both lungs" and not be put off you game by a bad day, I believe that your attitude and approach to playing has to include, along with money management, a certain degree of self awareness.

Or as Dirty Harry would say: "A man has got to know his limitations."

[Dave Schwartz]

Quitting when you reach a goal is a form of "session play," which is an idea that I fully embrace.

Of course, my personal view is "Why wait until tomorrow to start a new session?"

I have heard for years why it just doesn't matter; that they're all just part of the total bets we make, but no matter how hard I try it just seems different in the real world.

Just my opinion.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[karlskorner]

For those who are interested

ww.netcapper.com/TrackTractsArchive/TT030214.htm

[karlskorner]

www.netcapper.com/TrackTractsArchive/TT030214.htm

[Tom]

Originally posted by Dave Schwartz
Of course, my personal view is "Why wait until tomorrow to start a new session?"
Regards,
Dave Schwartz

Think about his analogy:
A young calf and a bull are standing on top of a hill overlooking a field full of young cows.
"Let's run down there and get us one of them!"
The older bull replied, "Let's walk down and get 'em ALL!"

[netherworld]

I agree about profit taking at a pre-determined time but I was just curious if anyone had studied their own records and found if daily (where applicable) profit taking helped anyone become (more) profitable or at least cause you to lose less. I would think that much depends on your hit rate and avg. mutuel. I used to bet about 90% win and 10% exotics but found I couldn't stay ahead of the game (what I made during one meet was usually lost the mext meet) but now I bet about 90% exotics and am doing much better. When I was betting to win almost exclusively my win% varied between 18-24%, so there were some long runouts and, for my style, it would have been suicide to stop halfway during a race card since I normally made up for the losses with a small win streak, and who knows when that will happen?

I believe, of course, that the mental aspect to betting is very important and diff'rent strokes etc...

[Racehorse]

a few thoughts arising from my area of the bleachers on this subect ...
the section for the old and feeble (both of mind and body)

I personally do NOT quit when I reach my profit goal, either at horse wagering OR daytrading..
but then,
I never set a goal ..... well, I do, but it is indetermiate ... as much as I can get ...... gggggg

I know personally of no horse players who reach a predetermined goal and quit .. but then, as the closest track, LS, is over a hundred miles away, and OP and LAD and REM are nearly two hunderd miles distant it seems reasonable, to me at any rate, that one would'nt drive that far and leave ...

however ... nealy ALL the folks whom I know that are successful wagerers DO NOT let a profit turn into a loss .....
whether it be in the stock market OR at the track ...
the ones who I define as successful, that is.

as far as me and the way I do it ...
my fav sentence is "give it to me in hundreds, please"
and
when I get to utter this simple phrase ... there is NO way I'm leaving the track THAT day with less than half of THAT payout ....
that is just me ....

and with the multi dozen of day traders of my acquaintance .... I know of about a third who set a goal and quit for the day when they hit the mark ....
and some of those have a pretty high mark, too ..... gggggg

I can see the salient points of both sides of this equation ....

but, I choose to try to get as much as I can to stuff into my bank account .. horses and market ... and not quit

but, then, I don't bet every race and I trade a highly limited area of the market, too .....
and
I have no trouble in calling it quits when things are going wrong, too ....
and
I never never never let a profit turn into a loss .. well, a reasonable profit that is .... this is not an etched in stone amount ....


horse

[Pace Cap'n]

My thoughts on the subject:

The only way to be a winner is to quit when you're ahead.

Leaving the track or OTB with more than you came with will reinforce a positive attitude for the next session.

Never chase.

Stay alert. At the OTB I frequent they have around 20 tracks going from 11:30 AM until midnight. Sure can't play 'em all, so I have to quit sometime. I can maintain concentration playing three tracks, with an occaisional flling at a fourth or fifth, for about four or five hours. After that, ADD kicks in. Then it's time to quit for sure.

Don't set an upper limit goal, but do have a loss limit.

From an author on craps: If you double your stake, rathole 2/3rds of it. Continue to wager, if you double again, save the 2/3rds, and raise the wager amount. Never get into what you stashed. (Tom's lockbox.)

[BMeadow]

This isn't that complicated.

If you are a long-term winning player who never plays unless he has an advantage, it's foolish to "quit when you're ahead."

If you are a long-term losing player who plays without an advantage, consider this a hobby. If it IS a hobby--as it is for the vast majority of those who attend the races--money management shouldn't be a priority. Instead, enjoy the races, the social aspect, the beautiful surroundings, etc. If you want to quit while you're ahead, behind, or even, play parlays or progressions or some due-column thing, feel free. None of this changes a long-term negative expectation.

You never know whether your edge will come in race 1 or in race 10. You never know whether you will cash a ticket in race 1 or in race 10.

I have never heard of any professional player--poker, horses, sports, blackjack, harness racing, etc.--who believes that you should quit when you're ahead.

Because if you ARE a professional, you will simply get further ahead if you keep playing.

Of course, unless you keep long-term records, you don't know whether you're a winner or a loser, or maybe just lucky or unlucky.

[GameTheory]

Bottom line is there is no mathematical reason for quitting while ahead. However, it is obvious that for some people there is a psychological advantage in doing so. Nothing wrong with that.

Being a consistent winner is hard enough. I would never tell a current winning player, "You're winning, sure, but you're not winning the right way." That would be pretty arrogant...

[Rick]

In fact you may have a greater advantage at the end of the day since there is some evidence to suggest that the public may underbet logical contenders and overbet longshots in the last race.

[WINMANWIN]

Over the years, I have noticed many things about gambling on
horses. I to, over the years have went for the kill, and bet way to
many races and at the end of the day, repeatedly said to
myself WOULDA,COULDA,SHOULDA, more times then I care to remember. The serious capper should dope out maybe 2 to 3
tracks a day and make x amount of plays a day. If they reach there bankroll after 2 plays, Thats all for the day, If they
tap out for the day, with there set amount of daily money, then it's a loss for the day. What I have noticed, after playing these
steeds, That the tracks only give us X amount of races that we can WIN ON IN 1 DAY........Another words, we can hit a certain amount of races at X Amount of Tracks and then it's Head Scratching time, The form doesnt hold up, and we start losing.
The name of this game is discipline, and by golly it's HARD TO
HAVE....The serious player, has it, and can Churn profits, but
this game is not for the weak minded or cappers that play most races, SURE WAY TO POOR HOUSE.Let's face facts, The small # of players making money gambling on ponies, is the players that pick there spots and have the composure to stick to the gameplan.