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View Full Version : my first successful sportsbook arbitrage!!


andicap
12-21-2009, 10:03 AM
I've been meaning to play around with this for a while and finally did so this year on a small basis but it worked out.

Over a month ago I bet the Eagles to win the Super Bowl on Betfair at 16-1 odds betting 10 pounds (about $16.50). They went into a slump and their odds zoomed into the 20s so I thought I was hosed. But they've rebounded and are now listed at 12.5-1 to win and 13-1 to "lay" them. (bet to lose)

So today I bet 10 pounds AGAINST them in the SB meaning i have a free bet. If they win the SB I win 160 pounds minus the 130 pounds I would lose from my "lay" bet for a total of 30 pounds.

If they lose the SB i get my 10 pounds back.

I guess i could lay a little more money so i can win some in the likely event they dont win the SB but at least i can't lose now and there's still an upside.

JBmadera
12-21-2009, 10:13 AM
:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

Overlay
12-21-2009, 10:13 AM
Too bad the pari-mutuel system in horse racing isn't set up so that you would get the odds that were posted at the time that you bet, regardless of what happened to them subsequently. That would be great for value players.

lamboguy
12-21-2009, 10:18 AM
Too bad the pari-mutuel system in horse racing isn't set up so that you would get the odds that were posted at the time that you bet, regardless of what happened to them subsequently. That would be great for value players.why would they do a silly thing like that, it would only add to business and help the game.

Robert Goren
12-21-2009, 10:23 AM
Too bad the pari-mutuel system in horse racing isn't set up so that you would get the odds that were posted at the time that you bet, regardless of what happened to them subsequently. That would be great for value players. Then it would not be Pari-mutuel.

Overlay
12-21-2009, 10:36 AM
Then it would not be Pari-mutuel.

As I've heard such a system described, the odds would update continually in response to betting trends, but would still allow bettors to receive the fixed odds that were in effect at the precise moment that they placed their wager. Since the changes in odds would be determined by the bettors themselves, wouldn't that still be pari-mutuel in that sense? Is such a system possible, or is it just a pipe dream? (I believe Ainslie was the first that I recall mentioning such a possibility in his Theory and Practice of Handicapping.)

andicap
12-21-2009, 11:27 AM
Here in the U.K., I can get the current odds from a bookie at the track but only for win and place betting. (depending on the size of the field, they'll pay to place out to four horses via a set formula.)

Interestingly i didn't find, the one time i went to the track here, that the odds changed that much from start to finish. Unlike the racetracks in the U.S,. it's in the bookies' interest to set as accurate a "morning line" as possible. I didn't see too many horses open at 8-1 and close at 2-1, the way you might in the States.

The tracks could offer fixed odds -- if they were any good at predicting them. But they're rubbish.

Oh yes, flush off my initial success, I just bet the Vikings at 7-1 for 10 pounds. But this is a bet I might hold to the end or near the end. They have a helluva shot.
For fun i also bet the Bengals for 2 pounds at 41-1.

Valuist
12-21-2009, 11:28 AM
Nice job, Andicap.

I've got a great arbitrage system for middling MLB games......although it is very selective. It goes like this: the game MUST involve the Chicago Cubs and be at Wrigley Field. Why? Because games at Wrigley are the only games that do not have a total posted until 10:30 CT the day of the game because the wind at Wrigley plays such a big factor. While the media makes a big deal of the wind blowing out, the fact of the matter is when the wind blows in, it becomes a major pitchers park. So at Wrigley, we'll see totals of 6 1/2 to 8 1/2 when the wind blows in, and 11 1/2 to 13 1/2 when it blows out.

The total of the game MUST be 7 1/2 or less. Obviously, in these cases, the wind is blowing in, and runs will be at a premium. And with runs at a premium, the likelihood of a 1-run game increases. Next, the Cubs MUST be in the role of betting favorite. I will bet the Cubs on the moneyline, then take the opponent on the run line (plus 1 1/2 runs). I NEVER lay 1 1/2 runs with a home team, because if they are ahead, they will not get the 9th at bat. Obviously, we are looking for a 1 run win by the Cubs to win both bets.
This situation happens most frequently in April and May, when the wind is blowing in.

skate
12-21-2009, 12:26 PM
good points

rrbauer
12-21-2009, 02:47 PM
Then it would not be Pari-mutuel.

It would be a pretty simple (in spite of the morons that run the tote companies) thing to have "sub" pools; and, when a sub-pool was cutoff whatever the odds were (and the amount bet in that pool) they would be frozen and bettors in that pool would have those odds for the race/event. A new pool would then be formed for the remainder of betting on that race/event. This is not unlike what they do for the future bets on the Derby.

Here in the U.K., I can get the current odds from a bookie at the track... Interestingly i didn't find, the one time i went to the track here, that the odds changed that much from start to finish. Unlike the racetracks in the U.S,. it's in the bookies' interest to set as accurate a "morning line" as possible. I didn't see too many horses open at 8-1 and close at 2-1, the way you might in the States.



I understand that because of its wide following and online availability that the odds on races from Betfair are the basis for most bookmaker's "ML" odds in the UK. For that matter, especially with pro football, Vegas relies on early bets into its opening line to determine where they might need to adjust it before announcing/publicizing the line on the games for the coming week.

Good job on the football middle. You should get some more of those opportunities come playoff time. Also, next year, pay attention to the prices for the baseball playoffs and world series for similar opportunities.

Robert Goren
12-21-2009, 03:01 PM
I understand how bookmakers makes money. I do not see how a "pari-mutuel" could work with fixed odds. Someone drive the pool odds up while the pool was small and dump a huge bet on a 4-1 that should be 7-5. The track would take a betting on that bet.

rrbauer
12-21-2009, 04:15 PM
I understand how bookmakers makes money. I do not see how a "pari-mutuel" could work with fixed odds. Someone drive the pool odds up while the pool was small and dump a huge bet on a 4-1 that should be 7-5. The track would take a betting on that bet.

It couldn't. Fixed odds and pari-mutuel are mutually exclusive. Racetracks would never do it. Why should they? Between slots players and horseplayers they can just rake and rake and rake in the dough.

The only place that I know that tried fixed odds was the Sport of Kings racebook in LV and they went pari-mutuel after taking a drubbing in their early months and subsequently went belly up.

Dave Schwartz
12-21-2009, 04:56 PM
IMHO, BetFair will never be big for American Racing because exotics are such a huge part of how we wager. You simply cannot offer all the combinations of exotics in a BetFair scenario.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

judd
12-21-2009, 07:31 PM
under 44

rrbauer
12-21-2009, 11:07 PM
under 44

First half, right?

kenwoodallpromos
12-22-2009, 01:12 AM
If you could could lay a KY Derby future bet would that work vs. a win KY Derby future bet?

Robert Fischer
12-22-2009, 02:49 PM
Good luck. Philadelphia can got hot in games. Very nice offense

andicap
12-23-2009, 12:57 PM
thanks!


Nice job, Andicap.

I've got a great arbitrage system for middling MLB games......although it is very selective. It goes like this: the game MUST involve the Chicago Cubs and be at Wrigley Field. Why? Because games at Wrigley are the only games that do not have a total posted until 10:30 CT the day of the game because the wind at Wrigley plays such a big factor. While the media makes a big deal of the wind blowing out, the fact of the matter is when the wind blows in, it becomes a major pitchers park. So at Wrigley, we'll see totals of 6 1/2 to 8 1/2 when the wind blows in, and 11 1/2 to 13 1/2 when it blows out.

The total of the game MUST be 7 1/2 or less. Obviously, in these cases, the wind is blowing in, and runs will be at a premium. And with runs at a premium, the likelihood of a 1-run game increases. Next, the Cubs MUST be in the role of betting favorite. I will bet the Cubs on the moneyline, then take the opponent on the run line (plus 1 1/2 runs). I NEVER lay 1 1/2 runs with a home team, because if they are ahead, they will not get the 9th at bat. Obviously, we are looking for a 1 run win by the Cubs to win both bets.
This situation happens most frequently in April and May, when the wind is blowing in.

ezrabrooks
12-24-2009, 12:39 PM
As I've heard such a system described, the odds would update continually in response to betting trends, but would still allow bettors to receive the fixed odds that were in effect at the precise moment that they placed their wager. Since the changes in odds would be determined by the bettors themselves, wouldn't that still be pari-mutuel in that sense? Is such a system possible, or is it just a pipe dream? (I believe Ainslie was the first that I recall mentioning such a possibility in his Theory and Practice of Handicapping.)

What would you end up with...tick by tick pools?