when you roll 2,3 or 4 to 5 pk3s

[freeneasy]

heres a little stratagy you might want to be aware of, that is if you are serious about hitting all of your rolling pk3 bets.

if you roll three pk3s starting in say the 1st race then you have 3 bets. one bet in the first, (1st, 2nd, and 3rd). the second bet of your roll starts in the 2nd race, (2nd, 3rd, and 4th) and the third bet starts in the 3rd race (3rd, 4th, and 5th) so your rolling pk3 involves winning 5 races to win 3 bets.

but in all five of those races what is the most important race, the must race, the one that will get you at least one pick 3 payoff?
in other words out of those 5 races, which race, if lost, will also be the race that automatically cause all three of your rolling pk3 bets to lose.

the 3rd race.
if this race loses then all three bets automatically lose. this is the most important race, the race that must win in order for you to have a chance to hit the entire 3 bet, 5 race, pk3 roll.

if you are going to roll four pk3s, say again, starting in the 1st race, then the most important race, the race that must win in order to give you the best chance of hitting the entire 4 bet, 6 race, pk3 roll, would be the 3rd race and the 4th race.

and to roll 5 pk3s the most important race to win is the 3rd, 4th and 5th race.

heres how it works

roll 1 races)...1st, 2nd, 3rd
roll 2 races)..........2nd, 3rd, 4th
roll 3 races)..................3rd, 4th, 5th
roll 4 races).........................4th, 5th, 6th
roll 5 races)................................5th, 6th, 7th

you see how the three race numbers line up on top of each other? those are the must win races for the number of pk3s you want to roll. easy, peasy, japaneasy (james whitmore, shawshank redemption)

now in the case of rolling only two pk3s then you need a must win in either the 2nd race or the 3rd race.

also whatever race you decide to start in then just exchange that race number with the first race # in the example and mark the following races along accordingly. and dont blame me if you get it right:D
ya never know when it might come on in handy;)

[Fastracehorse]

What the heck are you talking about??

I don't organize my bets on fear of loss - probability vs. ROI is my strategy - and yes, I lose alot of them.

fffastt

[Pace Cap'n]

Had never really looked at it that way before.

Try to roll two P3's and you've just played a Pick-4.

Roll four of 'em and you've got a Pick-6. See what you mean about "easy".

BTW, good hits at HOL the other day.

[Valuist]

Freeneasy-

Do you ever hedge w/your Pic 3s? I will if I can hit a 10-1 shot or higher in one (or even both) of the first 2 legs.

[freeneasy]

but right now iam a little pressed for time and got to go. later

[freeneasy]

yes 2 rolling pk3s spans 4 races, but the cost of 2 pk3 races, using the same horses in each of those 4 races is less then the cost of playing the pk4 with those same horses. exm. 3 horses in the 4 races of a pk 4 cost $81.
using the same 3 horses in each of the first 3 races of the first pk3 cost $27
and usingthe same 3 horses in the first 3 races of the 2nd pk3 will cost the same $27 to total $54.
your playing the same 4 races
and on that note the pk 4 will generally pay more then the two pk3 payouts together,
lose one race in the pk4 and your out. but you can lose one race in the pk3, and depending on which race in the sequence of a 2 bet rolling pk3 is lost, you can still hit the 1st or 2nd pk 3 bet.
the odds to hit 4 races in a row will always remain the same wheather its a 4 race/2 bet/rolling pk3 or a straight pk4. the difference Pace, and i think this was what you were making reference to, is even if a 4 race/ 2bet/ rolling pk3 carries the same percentages and probabilities as a straight 4 race/ 1 bet/ pk4, your chanes of hitting a pk3 bet out of the 2 pk3 bets made, are going to be better then hitting a straight 4 race pk4. but if you hit your 4 race/ 2 bet/ pk3 then you covered the same percetages of hitting 4 races in a row, only difference being is that you divided those 4 wins into two bets albeit they'll cost less and pay less then the higher cost and higher payoff of the pk4, kind of a catch type 22 situation :D

well valuist i'll tell ya, it depends, when you say hedging a pk3 bet i can differ in a lot of ways. sometimes it just depends. last week or a week and a half ago somewhere I liked this horse quite a bit. his ML was 20-1.
i thought this horse had at least a 2-1 chance to win.
he was in a race where you could play him in 3 pk3s.
lets say he was in the 6th race. so i could play him a pk 3 starting in the 4th race (4,5, 6), play him in a pk3 starting in the 5th race (5,6,7) and a pk 3 in the 6th (6,7,8).
in races 4,5,7 and 8 i played those horses that when combined, probably had a better then 90% chance to win each of their races.
iow i played the 4,5,7 and 8th races as if that 20-1 ML shot had already won his race, done deal. cause if he won i intended to hit all three of those p3s. and it was the way i played it that left me no room to "hedge in" another horse with him. i played him so that whoever would have won the other races i would have had any number of multiple bets for that winning combination, had he of won.
i dont know Valuist, i kinda feel like if your hedging abet or if you feel you should hedge your bets then the horse or the horses that your using to hedge your bets with should be a complete part of the entire play your making, so as you leave yourself with having no questions or doubts about any of the bets you have made.
now i did play this particular horse to place in the exacta and trifecta and i did recoup. but if i would have had more money in my account i would have played him to win and place in the exacta and trifecta for the sole purpose of producing even greater profits, and probably not for the purpose of hedgeing my bets. i think i want to learn this and that is, you cant be afraid to win when its time win, the trick is, is when its right for you.
welp, nother long day tomarrow, see you guys

[freeneasy]

that hedging your bets is fine, but imo for the most part if your betting a one bet pk3 that'll cost $12, $16, $24, $32 why bother. does absolutely nothing for me. if you see a horse outside of your top play horses that can beat you for it all, use him to make money and if that extra horse or horses bumps your ticket up from a $48 cost to an $82 cost then so be it. and if the stronger horses youve figured to win are at low such low odds that it would make your profiting not worth the risk then why bet $82 to make $120 to $150. dont leave out any horse that can beat you. take em all in, count up the cost, figure which horse or horses will more then likely win those three races and if the odds on these most likeliest winners will make it a bad risk profit then who needs it.
now if you have a very strong horse at good, good odds to make your profiting well worth the cost, and rite here i'll say " to the point of, where cost is no object", then surround that horse in the other races with those horses that will give you at least an 85% chance to win each of other legs. then again count the cost. if you like it then take it, if not then pass it, or whittle it down to an inexspensive flyer bet. but my philosopy here is if you have a 2-1 horse going off at 20-1 you dont want to get beat in the other races. and if you got a strong longshot in two races or two strong longshots in one race or even two races and you know one of them is firecraker ready to pop then take it.
even if you have a strong favorite i look to the surronding races to see if theres an 'crowd' outsider that has a decent enough shot at it.
it all comes down to this: wheres the winners today, can these winners make me money today and how can these winners make me money today.
and yes i will hedge but only after ive made my primary bets if i have a primary bet.
if i liked a pk3 with one/ two/ and two horses ($4 cost) and bet it for $50 ($200 cost) sure i'll hedge it for an extra total, i mean it might cost me another $50- $60 but only if the bets still worth the cost after subtracting the hedge bet from the potential profits. why not

[freeneasy]

if you are rolling three pk3s bets and
you lose the 1st race you lose the first of your three pk3 bets and can still hit the two remaining pk3 bets beginning in the 2nd and 3rd races
if you lose the the 2nd race you lose the second of your three pk3 bets and can still hit the last remaining pk3 bet starting in the 3rd race
if you lose the 3rd race then youve automatically lose your 3rd pk3 bet

if you win the 1st race, you will hit the first of your three, pk3 bets, by winning the 2nd and 3rd races.

if you win the 2nd race, you will hit the second of your three, pk3 bets, by winning the 3rd and 4th races, and you will be 2/3s of the way thru your first pk3 bet by your winning race 1 and 2.

if you hit the 3rd race you will have won your first pk3 bet and will win the third of your three, pk3 bets by hitting the 4th and 5th race.
so if you hit the 4ht race, you win the the second pk3 bet and if you win the 5th race you hit the third pk3 bet.
ya gotta hit all 5 races to win all three of your pk3 bets.

if you win the 1st and 2nd race and lose the 3rd you lose your 1st pk 3 bet
if you win the 2nd and 4th race and lose the 3rd you lose your 2nd pk3 bet
if you win the 4th and 5th race and lose the 3rd you lose your 3rd pk3 bet
if you win your bets in the 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 5th race and lose that one pivital race in the 3rd, the key must win race, you automatically lose all three bets.
of corse you must he all 5 races and if you win that key race then thats still no gaurenntee youll hit the rest but it is a guarentee that you will lose all bets made. you might not lose the other races but you will lose the entire three bets made.
so if your absolutely addiment about HITTING ALL THREE bets in a rolling pk3 then make sure that the middle race of the 5 races is a take no prisoners absolute winner wheather its one horse or you have to hit all.
and if have an absolute best bet single and it is in this race key then all the better seeing that you now have a single keying into all three bets.
and thats simply it.
nothing more then a single fact
being aware of this fact will probably serve as more of a benifit then not.
so this really has nothing to do with organizing a bet on the fear of loss, the thread was pretty much a straight foward statement in saying that the middle bet is the key bet to winning a rolling pk3

[Fastracehorse]

I'm not trying to be mean but your posts are just observations. You are just describing how p-3's keep going or stop.

This won't help you win.

You need to be good at picking high probability over-lays and structure high probability p-3 bets.

Andddddddd, it's not that easy.

fffastt

[Valuist]

I love Pic 3s but I rarely roll 3 straight. I'd rather use additional money to spread deeper in one set of Pic 3s.

[tcat]

I agree, Valuist. I recommend playing every other race in P3's, for the reasons cited above. I never play back-to-back P3's.

[freeneasy]

valuist takes his pick 3s one at a time and uses the additional money to spread, a sure way to leave no stone unturned, and i couldnt agree more
fastracehorse believes in picking high probability overlays and putting together high probability pk3s, this is sound and profit producing
but i will have to continue my dissagreement with fastracehose, not on his personal approach to structuring a pk3 but on the dissagreement that there is not a pivitol point in a rolling pk3 and that this pivitol point is a standing point only, to where a rolling pk3 continues or stops. as well as the value that this pivitol point has and is of little or no consequence. this cannot be true.
its simply this, if you roll three pk3 bets which race must be won to keep you alive for at least one pk3 win out of the three bets? the middle race.
if you have excellent longshot potentials in the surrounding races would you jepordize the potential of missing out on 1, 2 or 3 big payoffs by not playing as many contenders as it takes to ensure at least a 92% probability of winning that middlle race thereby cashing at least one ticket with an excellent possibility to go on and win the next two races at good odds?
if you had 2 good priced winners in the first two races
and a number of top rated contenders in the two races following the middle race,
and these contenders are also at excellent prices,
and in that middle race you bet your 4th, 5th and 6th contenders because their overlay prices were better then your 1st, 2nd and 3rd rated contenders,
and this no doubt is, in and of itself good, but
do you think you would catch youself saying something like, damn i wish i would have bet my top 3 fig horses in this race as well, and if you do catch yourself saying something like that then you do or you will know how importantant it is to see to it that,
well ok i'll back off a little and put it this way, that at least SOMETIMES:D this middle race can have the crux of being the most importatant and pivitol race when rolling a pk3 into 3 bets.
this is the one race that when won gives you at least one potential pk3 ticket.
this is probably more for the ticket that has a lot of good longshot plays in the outside races and you want as close to a guarrantee of having at least one longshot pk3 payoff as possible.

[Fastracehorse]

< on the dissagreement that there is not a pivitol point in a rolling pk3

I didn't disagree with this I just don't see the point of it.

fffastt

[freeneasy]

guess i cant argue with that