cash call hollywood park 12/18

[bisket]

first big prep and heres the pps for all the message board punters to scrutinize. who do you like? you too fat man!! lets see you lay one down ON THE RECORD!!
http://drf.com/formulator-web/FreeRace.do?trackId=HOL&country=USA&raceDate=20091219&dayEvening=D&raceNumber=9#past-performance-race/9
after the first look i think marcello merits further consideration.

[Dahoss9698]

Looks pretty chalky to me. Lookin At Lucky and Noble's Promise look like the two standouts. Noble's Promise probably moved a bit early and Lookin At Lucky ran very well considering the wide, uncovered trip last out. Better race to watch than bet IMO.

[Onion Monster]

The price differential between Lookin at Lucky and Noble's Promise is tempting (I rate them about the same), but with two other Baffert horses, both possessing some speed, the higher priced McPeek horse may have a tougher trip.

The maiden Make Music For Me is a weird horse, has run his best against the best competition, and wouldn't surprise me to be the second place finisher if Looking at Lucky is too far back or Noble's Promise is backing up.

[Rialto]

I think that if Looking At Lucky holds at 4/5 or so It would be worth a straight bet... but I have a feeling he's going to get some heavy action probably down to around 1/2... might be worth betting against him at that point..

[Dahoss9698]

I'm much more interested in the Starlet the next day. That actually came up a pretty strong race and seems fairly competitive on paper.

[Rialto]

Yea definitely... the starlet will have some decent value... I don't see any morning lines for the race yet but, I like Bickersons.

[Spalding No!]

I'm much more interested in the Starlet the next day. That actually came up a pretty strong race and seems fairly competitive on paper.

I'll have to review the video, but I recall Tyler Baze butchering the ride somehow on Blind Luck in the BC. Presuming Rafael Bejarano gives her her best chance, I think she'll reassert herself nicely here.

[Stillriledup]

yeah, LAL is going to be 1-2 or 2-5, he's the most likely winner and has not one thing you can knock.

[HUSKER55]

Lookin At Lucky looks like the one to beat and Nobles Promise figures to be there in my opinion. But I doubt the odds will be great.

JMHO

:)

[jefftune]

MARCELLO, one of the the other Baffert horses ran well on the turf last out - could be worth a bet at big odds. LOOKIN AT LUCKY certainly looks tough and has been working great in the AM.

[bisket]

The price differential between Lookin at Lucky and Noble's Promise is tempting (I rate them about the same), but with two other Baffert horses, both possessing some speed, the higher priced McPeek horse may have a tougher trip.

The maiden Make Music For Me is a weird horse, has run his best against the best competition, and wouldn't surprise me to be the second place finisher if Looking at Lucky is too far back or Noble's Promise is backing up.
good angle on the maiden :ThmbUp: i may box the maiden with marcello and lucky in a tri? its hard to eliminate noble though. i'll see

[bisket]

what i like about marcello here is if you notice his two works after the generous were maintenance works. i don't think the horse reached form UNTIL LAST OUT!! i think he may show us what he's got this time; so i like him for a possible win. of course what's not to like about lucky. one thing i've noticed is that he seems to be a chaser though.
this is a good spot to analyze a chaser. why do i think lucky's a chaser? all his races except the bc juvie he shows classic chaser tendancies. just off the leaders all the time. no matter what time they're running. the race that really seals it though is the del mar. look at his second quarter split. first 1/4 23 and 2 second quarter 22 and 3 and then slowed to 24 for the 3rd quarter. MAINTAINING THE EXACT SAME POSITION IN RELATION TO THE LEADER THE WHOLE TIME. a jock won't do that in a race. why slow down and lose momentum? how does this figure with bc juvie? he raced well off the pace in that? well his post position had an effect on his positioning and pace in the early parts of that race. horses are always trained running in the first 3 paths in relation to the rail so when they are close to the rail in a race they naturally want to run. when they are outside they tend to want to relax and gallop. this is why lucky raced like he did in the juvie. incidentally this is the trick dutrow used with brown, and the main reason he won at 1 1/4 mile and 1 3/16 mile. today lucky's inside so i look for him to chase the early pace.
we know some very important things about lucky going forward though. quite possibly baffert could get lucky to stop chasing early pace and that could change things. the most important thing we learned though is that lucky can lay down a 22 and change 1/4 in the middle of a race, and still maintain 12 second furlongs afterwards. SO HE'S GOT 2 MOVES IN A RACE, AND A CHANCE TO BE A REALLY GOOD ONE!!. also he has some tactical speed. which won't help him much on poly in routes, but on dirt is a quality that will help him win many races. when you hear all the stuff close to the derby about him running on poly and is a question mark derby day. they'll be ignored!!! my fear is like colonal john if he stays in california he won't be able to show his real ability when it comes time to race in open stakes company on poly. his only question derby day is what's gonna happen if he gets dirt kicked in his face?

[Easy Goer]

LookinatLucky reminds me of another Baffert trainee that missed the Win & got 2nd in the BC-Juvy PointGiven. Perhaps we are looking at another Point Given who knows?

For sure the odds on LookinatLucky wont be better than Even-money if that high. So basically the best strategy is to try & beat Nobles Promise in the 2nd slot with a long shot or just watch the race.

[WinterTriangle]

I wish this race was on dirt! My feeling is that Dutrow has a reason for coming, though his dirt-to-synth stats are dismal. However, if this was on dirt, his horse nails these ala IWR. Since I have no idea how his form will translate to Cushion Track, I have no idea how he'll do. Baffert always puts front runners with Espinoza, can't wait to see how this one does. I'm gonna watch IWRs race again.

[bisket]

I wish this race was on dirt! My feeling is that Dutrow has a reason for coming, though his dirt-to-synth stats are dismal. However, if this was on dirt, his horse nails these ala IWR. Since I have no idea how his form will translate to Cushion Track, I have no idea how he'll do. Baffert always puts front runners with Espinoza, can't wait to see how this one does. I'm gonna watch IWRs race again.
iwr got stopped in mid- stretch and then came on the last 200 yards and just missed.

[Quackfan]

I am going to bet a QNL from Brady Blue Eyes to (Lucky & Noble) also bet him WP and hope he gets a nice tracking trip. This barn is red hot at the meet. Thanks for PPs Bisket.

[WinterTriangle]

Dutrow scratched.

[bisket]

i know i just looked at the race on my wagering site. i'm thinking of maybe droppeing noble from the tri. i'm not sure yet.

[bisket]

what has a pretty good chance of happening is this. seattle ruler breaking from the outside and wanting good position for the turn jumps out to a 22 and change first 1/4 which he has run on many occassions, and lucky being a little keen breaking from the 1st post chases him. this could make lucky vulnerable in the stretch, and cancel noble out completely. this would open things up for marcello who figures to run his best race to date. just have to decide on a 3rd horse for the tri. although i'm probably going to play a win bet on marcello.

[Spalding No!]

what has a pretty good chance of happening is this. seattle ruler breaking from the outside and wanting good position for the turn jumps out to a 22 and change first 1/4 which he has run on many occassions, and lucky being a little keen breaking from the 1st post chases him. this could make lucky vulnerable in the stretch, and cancel noble out completely. this would open things up for marcello who figures to run his best race to date. just have to decide on a 3rd horse for the tri. although i'm probably going to play a win bet on marcello.

Marcello is a terrible plodder. His best chance to be a good horse was to improve immensely on the turf (bred up the ying-yang for it), but although he got 2nd in the Generous, he was no threat to the winner nor did he show any new dimensions in terms of running style.

He won't get much of a pace to work with here.

And while Seattle Ruler did have some sharp front-running speed during his first few starts, note that he suddenly lost that speed coinciding with a decision to take blinkers off. The only way he sets the pace today is if no one else wants it, and that's unlikely with Brady Blue Eyes in there.

Not sure what is going to cancel Noble's Promise's chances in this race given the pace scenario. Ultimately, I don't think he'll go much further than 1 1/16th, but he's got a huge shot to win (not to mention hit the board) today.

[bisket]

brady blue eyes for the tri box.
2$ tri box
:1: - :2: - :4:
10$ win
:4:

[bisket]

Marcello is a terrible plodder. His best chance to be a good horse was to improve immensely on the turf (bred up the ying-yang for it), but although he got 2nd in the Generous, he was no threat to the winner nor did he show any new dimensions in terms of running style.

He won't get much of a pace to work with here.

And while Seattle Ruler did have some sharp front-running speed during his first few starts, note that he suddenly lost that speed coinciding with a decision to take blinkers off. The only way he sets the pace today is if no one else wants it, and that's unlikely with Brady Blue Eyes in there.

Not sure what is going to cancel Noble's Promise's chances in this race given the pace scenario. Ultimately, I don't think he'll go much further than 1 1/16th, but he's got a huge shot to win (not to mention hit the board) today.
nothing new for me... another handicapper saying my horse is slow :p . thats why they run the races

[miesque]

I really hate making this sort of proclamation, but I just don't see Lookin At Lucky losing this unless he encounters some truly bad racing luck. The two colts that impressed me the most coming into the BC Juvenile were Lookin at Lucky and Vale of York and based on the performance/trips in the BC Juvenile I just think Lookin at Lucky is an exceptional two year old and Baffert pretty much owns this race. It also doesn't hurt that he is En Fuego today at Hollywood.

[WinterTriangle]

Wish you luck, Bisket. You usuallly have good hunches.

Boring, I know, but I like G1 horses for G1 races. Other than Noble's and Lucky, I would play Bafferts other horse, #3 and the inconsistent #5 if I were doing a tri box or super box.

I won't be playing, I lost interest when the offlee wild colt scratched.

[bisket]

10$ ex box
:1: & :4:
thanks winter
i'm getting much better odds than i expected on marcello

[miesque]

By the way, this was the weekend I was supposed to be at Hollywood Park before I made a last minute detour to the Turf Festival. Wish I was based on the weather here :bang:

[bisket]

I really hate making this sort of proclamation, but I just don't see Lookin At Lucky losing this unless he encounters some truly bad racing luck. The two colts that impressed me the most coming into the BC Juvenile were Lookin at Lucky and Vale of York and based on the performance/trips in the BC Juvenile I just think Lookin at Lucky is an exceptional two year old and Baffert pretty much owns this race. It also doesn't hurt that he is En Fuego today at Hollywood.
i agree miesque, but even finshing second marcello will pay well for me. the break is practically right on the turn. which means seattle will be on the muscle early, and lucky should be also to not get shut out on the rail. you know the other jocks will be gunning to beat lucky. so at the odds marcello makes sense.

[andymays]

Cold Trifecta

:6:
:1:
:4:


Super

:6:
:1:
:4:
:5: :7:

[bisket]

tvg is screwing me right now. highlighting the generous. odds steadily going south :bang:

[bisket]

andy what surface did rich run on before the pac classic? grass!!!

[miesque]

i agree miesque, but even finshing second marcello will pay well for me. the break is practically right on the turn. which means seattle will be on the muscle early, and lucky should be also to not get shut out on the rail. you know the other jocks will be gunning to beat lucky. so at the odds marcello makes sense.

Marcello is a great candidate for second/third at a price, along with The Program and Make Music For Me

[WinterTriangle]

Wish you luck, Bisket. You usuallly have good hunches.

Boring, I know, but I like G1 horses for G1 races. Other than Noble's and Lucky, I would play Bafferts other horse, #3 and the inconsistent #5 if I were doing a tri box or super box.

I won't be playing, I lost interest when the offlee wild colt scratched.


Looks like I called the trifecta and superfecta. (1-6-5-3).

I didn't play the race, though.

[bisket]

marcello is a turfy. the maiden fills it out for third.

[Onion Monster]

I still don't think there's much difference between the top 2.

[bisket]

Looks like I called the trifecta and superfecta. (1-6-5-3).

I didn't play the race, though.
you shoulda played it!! you put the time in!!

[lamboguy]

looking at lucky looked good

[rrbauer]

Well, if you saw the race then you know that the deck was stacked big time for Lucky. With Baffert having three in the race McPeak (or anyone else for that matter) didn't have a prayer. Espinoza left the rail open for Lucky, made sure that he took a wide route at the top of the lane and forced Promise to go around. Meanwhile Lucky took the cakewalk up the rail and got the easy win. Not saying that Lucky is not a good horse...his BC effort proves his mettle, but this was your basic 3-card monte all the way.

[bisket]

I still don't think there's much difference between the top 2.
lucky's a monster!! they need to get some dirt in his face though. he breaks to slowly to figure him getting a good position among the pacesetters derby day.

[Dahoss9698]

I still don't think there's much difference between the top 2.

Probably not, although I think Lookin At lucky is a little better. I suppose he was due the trip he got, after the wide trip last time. I can't wait to bet against both if and when they go to the dirt.

[Onion Monster]

Well, if you saw the race then you know that the deck was stacked big time for Lucky. With Baffert having three in the race McPeak (or anyone else for that matter) didn't have a prayer. Espinoza left the rail open for Lucky, made sure that he took a wide route at the top of the lane and forced Promise to go around. Meanwhile Lucky took the cakewalk up the rail and got the easy win. Not saying that Lucky is not a good horse...his BC effort proves his mettle, but this was your basic 3-card monte all the way.

Pretty much sums up my thoughts too.

[WinterTriangle]

you shoulda played it!! you put the time in!!

Too chalky.

I don't mind putting in the time......it's "practice".

I saved my tri and super $$ for some other races I'm playing tomorrow.

[Dahoss9698]

I think out of the 2 year olds that ran at Hollywood today, I prefer Tiz Chrome.

[Spalding No!]

Probably not, although I think Lookin At lucky is a little better. I suppose he was due the trip he got, after the wide trip last time. I can't wait to bet against both if and when they go to the dirt.

I have my reservations on Noble's Promise "training on" beyond his 2yo year. The triple albatross of Cuvee, Ken McPeek, and synthetic-based form can't be a recipe for success, at least as far as the Kentucky Derby is concerned.

[bisket]

the main reason i didn't play him is because of his pedigree. i thought he would already hit the wall this race.

[Dahoss9698]

I have my reservations on Noble's Promise "training on" beyond his 2yo year. The triple albatross of Cuvee, Ken McPeek, and synthetic-based form can't be a recipe for success, at least as far as the Kentucky Derby is concerned.

Agree completely. How long until McPeek is contemplating bringing him over for the 2000 Guineas and Epsom Derby?

[Spalding No!]

I think out of the 2 year olds that ran at Hollywood today, I prefer Tiz Chrome.

I hope Lookin At Lucky's form translates to dirt (though his pedigree is geared towards turf). It's a tragedy that a horse with his 2yo record is marred by competing exclusively on synthetics. Not gonna hold my breath though.

Only Roving Boy and Best Pal before him can claim to have as good a campaign as far as CA juveniles go.

[WinterTriangle]

Derby is a long way off. LAL would have to not only maintain his form, but also be able to transfer it to dirt. (not holding my breath).

This race was about as interesting as watching grass grow. On Cushion Track, sires Harlan's Holiday (#3) and Bernstein (#5) runners have been ITM, other than LAL and Noble's, all we had was a real dirt horse who scratched, a sprinter by Roman Ruler, a turfer, and a Sky Mesa "baby" who won a msw against nobody.

HOL can barely get decent G1-capable runners to compete, when they show up in a race it's so obvious it's chalk.

anyway, I'll be looking elsewhere for my Derby horse.

[toussaud]

Derby is a long way off. LAL would have to not only maintain his form, but also be able to transfer it to dirt. (not holding my breath).

This race was about as interesting as watching grass grow. On Cushion Track, sires Harlan's Holiday (#3) and Bernstein (#5) runners have been ITM, other than LAL and Noble's, all we had was a real dirt horse who scratched, a sprinter by Roman Ruler, a turfer, and a Sky Mesa "baby" who won a msw against nobody.

HOL can barely get decent G1-capable runners to compete, when they show up in a race it's so obvious it's chalk.

anyway, I'll be looking elsewhere for my Derby horse.

you and I think alot alike.

that and they pretty much made sure noble's promise had no chance in hell.

[Spalding No!]

HOL can barely get decent G1-capable runners to compete, when they show up in a race it's so obvious it's chalk.

The synthetics issue notwithstanding, why are you singling out this race as some sort of snoozefest?

You do realize there were only 6 Grade 1 races run for 2yos before the race today, right?

Well the runners here accounted for half of those (ie Norfolk, Del Mar Futurity, Lane's End Futurity), plus one of the few Grade 2s (Best Pal). In addition, place spots from the BC Juvenile, Del Mar Futurity, and Best Pal were accounted for.

[Cadillakin]

you and I think alot alike.

that and they pretty much made sure noble's promise had no chance in hell.
If you just look at the two colts when they are side by side at the 3/4 pole to the 1/2 mile pole.. you will see that Lookin at Lucky, under a stranglehold, covers much more ground with every stride than the other colt.

The only way that other colt beats Looking at Lucky is if Garrett falls off.

[Dahoss9698]

If you just look at the two colts when they are side by side at the 3/4 pole to the 1/2 mile pole.. you will see that Lookin at Lucky, under a stranglehold, covers much more ground with every stride than the other colt.

The only way that other colt beats Looking at Lucky is if Garrett falls off.

So if the trips are reversed today you don't think the finish is much closer?

[DanG]

Only Roving Boy and Best Pal before him can claim to have as good a campaign as far as CA juveniles go.
I hate to rain on your agenda, (or snow depending on your location) but these are some names JUST from this particular stake. Anyone of which you would take pride by association…

A.P. Indy, Snow Chief, Point Given, Captain Steve, Real Quiet, Colonel John, I Want Revenge, Giacomo, Thunder Gulch, Farma Way, Desert Wine, Alysheba, Ferdinand, Life's Magic, Dance Floor...etc

[Rialto]

The other jocks didnt seem to be trying to give lucky much a problem on the rail... they had him boxed at one point early on and they just let him right out on the inside along the rail...... He's a good horse and all but I think they let him have an easy trip on purpose... not really seeing my derby horse here for now

[Rialto]

Yeah.... Victor Espinoza riding another baffert trainee.... :lol: on the lead looking back at garrett making sure he had room to come thru on the rail.... :lol:

[Robert Fischer]

this was an allowance level race for 2yo/young3yo ...

lookin at lucky the only possible classic distance graded stakes horse in the bunch

LAL is a solid, precocious Baffert horse, who overmatches most of the competition thus far although he has been inconsistent with showing a game effort on the lead. Another example today.

yes the place horse ran more, yes the field had a great effect on the trips that occurred... because of the finishing on the lead issues, i don't necessarily think that the winner wouldn't have won with the reverse trip, even having run less in defeat but that is a fair question.

so far i have to hope that the best horses are all being brought along slowly, or that i have missed them in my time off from playing regularly and following all the decent special weight races.
The Remsen, and the Cashcall were both uninspiring.

[WinterTriangle]

The Remsen, and the Cashcall were both uninspiring.

Robert it was also easy for me to say that since I have made up my "preliminary derby list", cross-referenced by top sires over 9F on dirt/damsire's average winning distance/sire's average winning distance/some simple dosage info, as well as race notes I made and performance figures and speeds.

Looking at my prelim list, there's just too many really compelling horses right now for me to get excited by anything I saw in the race today (even aside from what I said about what an unchallenging task it was to handicap it).

I'm waiting on some edits from a friend of mine, but should have a pretty decent prelim working list that includes the "horses so far" by end of the week.

[Stillriledup]

Yeah.... Victor Espinoza riding another baffert trainee.... :lol: on the lead looking back at garrett making sure he had room to come thru on the rail.... :lol:

Awwww cmon, Victor tried hard to win. He noticed that the inside lanes were very strong today at Hollywood so he specifically hugged the inside and kept Gomez boxed all the way. What a great race ride, you know, it was a grade 1 race, guys aren't going to do any uncoupled horse a favor by letting that horse slip thru on the gold rail. Now, if those horses were 1 and 1a than i could see something like that happening, but when you're uncoupled, you have to try and win the race for your owner.

[Spalding No!]

I hate to rain on your agenda, (or snow depending on your location) but these are some names JUST from this particular stake. Anyone of which you would take pride by association…

A.P. Indy, Snow Chief, Point Given, Captain Steve, Real Quiet, Colonel John, I Want Revenge, Giacomo, Thunder Gulch, Farma Way, Desert Wine, Alysheba, Ferdinand, Life's Magic, Dance Floor...etc

Read the whole post, Antonio.

I was only comparing Lookin At Lucky's overall 2yo race record to other CA-based juveniles. Future performance is irrelevant. For all I know, he's the worst winner of the Hollywood Futurity ever. My comments were based strictly on accomplishment.

What is unique about his season is that he won the Best Pal (formerly the Balboa), the Del Mar Futurity, the Norfolk, and the Hollywood Futurity (ie every major juvenile stakes in CA). You'll only find 2 others: Roving Boy and Best Pal.

[Robert Fischer]

Robert it was also easy for me to say that since I have made up my "preliminary derby list", cross-referenced by top sires over 9F on dirt/damsire's average winning distance/sire's average winning distance/some simple dosage info, as well as race notes I made and performance figures and speeds.

:ThmbUp:

[lamboguy]

I hate to rain on your agenda, (or snow depending on your location) but these are some names JUST from this particular stake. Anyone of which you would take pride by association…

A.P. Indy, Snow Chief, Point Given, Captain Steve, Real Quiet, Colonel John, I Want Revenge, Giacomo, Thunder Gulch, Farma Way, Desert Wine, Alysheba, Ferdinand, Life's Magic, Dance Floor...etcoh yes, but most of those came in the era of "conventional dirt"

[andymays]

So if the trips are reversed today you don't think the finish is much closer?


Agree. If the trips are reversed Noble's Promise wins the race. He never really settled in my opinion and kept trying till the end. Didn't like the ride by Bejarano.

I was not impressed with the race.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-hollywood-park-racing20-2009dec20,0,7289543.story

Excerpt:

Baffert said Lookin At Lucky may ship out for his next race and mentioned both Oaklawn in Arkansas or New York but said he's always changing his mind. He also came short of saying that California's controversial synthetic racing surface would factor into the decision.

The Hollywood Park surface, of the three major Southern California tracks, is considered the one that most approximates dirt. of The Kentucky Derby is run over a dirt surface at Churchill Downs.

[magwell]

Just my opinion, but if this bunch ran 10 times LAL win 8 or 9 times no matter his post or race flow, he is just better than these {at this time of their careers}...:cool:

[DanG]

Read the whole post, Antonio.

I was only comparing Lookin At Lucky's overall 2yo race record to other CA-based juveniles.
Thanks for the clarification; I forwarded your post to Antonio.

[Robert Fischer]

not that it matters, but i butchered my opinion a little bit:


yes the place horse ran more, yes the field had a great effect on the trips that occurred... because of the finishing on the lead issues, i don't necessarily think that the winner wouldn't have won with the reverse trip, even having run less in defeat but that is a fair question.

easy for me to say

should read "... even having run less in victory..."


these things are subtle. A lot of good horseplayers will say this is a crazy notion - that it's hogwash and 90% of the time horses who ran more ground win "if the trips are reversed". I could be wrong. It is kind of just a notion i have about some of LAL's races and it isn't that important to me until the 3yo season gets into high gear...

[Robert Fischer]

Thanks for the clarification; I forwarded your post to Antonio.

channeling Antonio :eek:

[andymays]

not that it matters, but i butchered my opinion a little bit:



easy for me to say

should read "... even having run less in victory..."


these things are subtle. A lot of good horseplayers will say this is a crazy notion - that it's hogwash and 90% of the time horses who ran more ground win "if the trips are reversed". I could be wrong. It is kind of just a notion i have about some of LAL's races and it isn't that important to me until the 3yo season gets into high gear...


It's not so much the ground lost as the energy spent. Noble's Promise was in between horses and on the muscle into and out of the first turn. He never relaxed well.

On the other hand the winner stayed on the good rail throughout and was aided by his stablemate when he got far off the rail on the backstretch to clear the way. Any Jockey riding for another barn would not have gotten off the rail and Lucky would most likely have been shuffled back or worse.

Reverse the trips and reverse the winner in my opinion.

[Spalding No!]

Thanks for the clarification; I forwarded your post to Antonio.

The dude on your avatar looks just like SNL's Chris Kattan impersonating Antonio Banderas on....how you say....show!

[andymays]

Baffert in interviewed on the Roger Stein show today 12-20.

Archived show is up now.

He was asked about Espinoza leaving the rail open for Lucky. Baffert says his horse would have won regardless of the trip. I disagree.

He's also asked about Tiz Chrome who won earlier on the card and Clutch Player who also won earlier on the card.

He also says the Pro Ride (junk) at Santa Anita can confuse you in the morning as to who has ability and who doesn't.


http://www.rogerstein.com/radio/archive2.asp

[Spalding No!]

It's not so much the ground lost as the energy spent. Noble's Promise was in between horses and on the muscle into and out of the first turn. He never relaxed well.

But Noble's Promise is on the muscle in all his races, its nothing new. He seems to always pull his way to the lead to soon, which invariably leaves him vulnerable to the late runners.

Not that you necessarily said anything to the contrary, but because Lookin At Lucky got a soft trip doesn't mean Noble's Promise had a tough one. The Program floating him out a little rounding the far turn was the worse thing he took.

If anything, given the horse's propensity to weaken in the lane, this is exactly what McPeek wanted, having his horse finish strong down the lane. Note he was taking Willie Martinez off the horse.

As for reversing the trips and seeing a different result, I don't know if I buy that. Lookin At Lucky proved in the BC that he can come with a massive run when his own jock gets him in trouble. In fact, Noble's Promise is the very horse he ran down.

[andymays]

But Noble's Promise is on the muscle in all his races, its nothing new. He seems to always pull his way to the lead to soon, which invariably leaves him vulnerable to the late runners.

Not that you necessarily said anything to the contrary, but because Lookin At Lucky got a soft trip doesn't mean Noble's Promise had a tough one. The Program floating him out a little rounding the far turn was the worse thing he took.

If anything, given the horse's propensity to weaken in the lane, this is exactly what McPeek wanted, having his horse finish strong down the lane. Note he was taking Willie Martinez off the horse.

As for reversing the trips and seeing a different result, I don't know if I buy that. Lookin At Lucky proved in the BC that he can come with a massive run when his own jock gets him in trouble. In fact, Noble's Promise is the very horse he ran down.


In my opinion if a guy like Talamo is on Noble's Promise he breaks on or near the lead and gets a perfect trip. Bejarano is not a great gate rider to say the least.

Comparing the last race at Santa Anita is not valid in my opinion. If it were Lucky would have won by 5 or more.

You have to remember Pro Ride at Santa Anita is more like turf than any other synthetic surface whereas Hollywoods Cushion is more like dirt than any other synthetic surface.

[Cadillakin]

Just my opinion, but if this bunch ran 10 times LAL win 8 or 9 times no matter his post or race flow, he is just better than these {at this time of their careers}...:cool:
That's why he will almost certainly be a unanimous or near-unanimous champion.. Simple as that.

[andymays]

Baffert in interviewed on the Roger Stein show today 12-20.

Archived show is up now.

He was asked about Espinoza leaving the rail open for Lucky. Baffert says his horse would have won regardless of the trip. I disagree.

He's also asked about Tiz Chrome who won earlier on the card and Clutch Player who also won earlier on the card.

He also says the Pro Ride (junk) at Santa Anita can confuse you in the morning as to who has ability and who doesn't.


http://www.rogerstein.com/radio/archive2.asp


If all that isn't good enough to listen Jerry Jam is on as well! :ThmbUp:

He talks about Los Alamitos and the increased purses.

[Spalding No!]

Comparing the last race at Santa Anita is not valid in my opinion. If it was Lucky would have won by 5 or more.

I don't think that's valid, either. Lookin At Lucky has clearly shown in several starts now that he "waits on horses" or whatever euphemism you want to use. He would have won the Norfolk by 10 if he ran away from horses.

[miesque]

I don't think that's valid, either. Lookin At Lucky has clearly shown in several starts now that he "waits on horses" or whatever euphemism you want to use. He would have won the Norfolk by 10 if he ran away from horses.

I absolutely agree, Lookin At Lucky is not the draw away and win by 5-10 lengths and you have to keep that in mind when you watch his races, he does what is necessary to win and he is pretty professional for his age. I saw a comment by Baffert that he reminds him a bit of Silver Charm. For those that want to obsess about Noble's Promise trip saying he is better then Lookin at Lucky, good luck to you.

[the little guy]

What is unique about his season is that he won the Best Pal (formerly the Balboa), the Del Mar Futurity, the Norfolk, and the Hollywood Futurity (ie every major juvenile stakes in CA). You'll only find 2 others: Roving Boy and Best Pal.




You really are slipping. How could his season be " unique " if ANY others did the same thing?

Next thing I know you will call it very unique. Or you'll try to say Wayne Lukas trained the winner of a stake race Bruce Levine won.

[andymays]

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/54487/lookin-at-lucky-collects-in-cashcall-futurity

Excerpt:

Noble's Promise ($2.40, $2.10) had to overcome a wide trip this time, but rallied four-wide into the stretch and finished powerfully to land the place spot, which was worth $150,000. Noble's Promise, who also ran a huge race in the BC Juvenile, losing by a half-length after leading in the stretch, won Keeneland's Breeders' Futurity (gr. I) this fall.

"My horse came running to the end; he never quit," Bejarano said. "(Lookin At Lucky) had a better post and that really helped him. I know I can beat him next time."

[Dahoss9698]

I don't think anyone is saying Noble's Promise is a better horse. I certainly didn't. I just don't think there is a whole lot separating them. The 3/4's that separated them yesterday would have been a lot closer had the trips been reversed. But, in the Juvenile Lookin at Lucky was much better than the finish indicated.

Lookin At Lucky is better and has compiled a wonderful season. We'll see if he can transfer his form to the dirt. I don't think either will. But I think Lookin At Lucky has a better (albeit a small one) chance to.

[andymays]

I don't think anyone is saying Noble's Promise is a better horse. I certainly didn't. I just don't think there is a whole lot separating them. The 3/4's that separated them yesterday would have been a lot closer had the trips been reversed. But, in the Juvenile Lookin at Lucky was much better than the finish indicated.

Lookin At Lucky is better and has compiled a wonderful season. We'll see if he can transfer his form to the dirt. I don't think either will. But I think Lookin At Lucky has a better (albeit a small one) chance to.


I think Lucky has more quality as well and will get better with time whereas Noble's Promise is close to his top.

I also agree that to ignore the trips and not acknowledge that one was easier than the other is to ignore the facts.

[Spalding No!]

You really are slipping. How could his season be " unique " if ANY others did the same thing?

Next thing I know you will call it very unique. Or you'll try to say Wayne Lukas trained the winner of a stake race Bruce Levine won.

Would you accept "medium rare"?

I'll wait for a retraction.

[toussaud]

lookin at lucky is POTN part deux.

they both have pedigrees that upon investigation are very turfish, which is my biggest prob lem wtih him. Smart STrike out of a belong to me mare = turf.

belong to me's best offspring (all silent, forever together,ocean drive) are all turf horses.

although his half brother is a grade 2 winner on dirt, but still, I'm very skeptical of horses with that type of pedigree running on synths.

for some reason they both seem to wait on horses.

they both are beating up on absolutly no one and racking up grade 1's doing it.

[Spalding No!]

lookin at lucky is POTN part deux.

they both have pedigrees that upon investigation are very turfish, which is my biggest prob lem wtih him. Smart STrike out of a belong to me mare = turf.

belong to me's best offspring (all silent, forever together,ocean drive) are all turf horses.

although his half brother is a grade 2 winner on dirt, but still, I'm very skeptical of horses with that type of pedigree running on synths.

I'd agree that Lookin At Lucky has a pedigree to handle turf, but I don't think that means he can't handle the dirt, too.

Smart Strike and Belong To Me are both more than capable dirt sires. Forever Together is also a Grade 2 winner on dirt, BTW. Belong To Me is also the broodmare sire of Circular Quay (out of his Spinaway winner Circle Of Life). Both stallions get a large number of turf horses, too, which makes them very versatile. Note neither horse was accomplished on turf as racehorses.

The only thing to suggest that Lookin At Lucky is more likely to handle turf more than he would dirt, really, is his ability to run on synthetics.

[toussaud]

I'd agree that Lookin At Lucky has a pedigree to handle turf, but I don't think that means he can't handle the dirt, too.

Smart Strike and Belong To Me are both more than capable dirt sires. Forever Together is also a Grade 2 winner on dirt, BTW. Belong To Me is also the broodmare sire of Circular Quay (out of his Spinaway winner Circle Of Life). Both stallions get a large number of turf horses, too, which makes them very versatile. Note neither horse was accomplished on turf as racehorses.

The only thing to suggest that Lookin At Lucky is more likely to handle turf more than he would dirt, really, is his ability to run on synthetics.
I'm not saying he won't. I'm just not jumping on any bandwagon until he runs on dirt.

unlike potn, mott flat out said as a 2YO this is a turf horse, and everyone chose not to believe him.

the jury is still out on lal.

[bisket]

theres one derby horse from this field, and he has the ability to win it, and not because he's lucky ;) . two handicappers i respect alot that play california all the time said he was a derby horse after the del mar. i had my doubts when i first heard this back in august, but now i'm a believer. that del mar victory is what i like the most. he made room for himself when he needed to. a horse that doesn't mind leaning on the others to get what he wants says to me he's the leader of this crowd :ThmbUp: . if i see a bully that has good running ability in the derby field; he's automatically in the tri. i'd like to see him stop following the pacesettter like he does, and run his own race. i also want to see him run behind horses on dirt. other than that i haven't seen a 2 year old on the track any better this year. i haven't seen him really run in any of his races, and i watched them all yesterday. he layed it down a little in the stretch of the cup, but wasn't all out.

[toussaud]

83 beyer speed figure.

seriously folks. nothing to see here.

[Spalding No!]

83 beyer speed figure.

seriously folks. nothing to see here.

What was the Beyer last year?

The Beyer for a synthetic race means nothing as far as the Kentucky Derby is concerned.

[toussaud]

What was the Beyer last year?

The Beyer for a synthetic race means nothing as far as the Kentucky Derby is concerned.\


excuses excuses. I don't even use beyers. But an 83 is an indication of a SLOWWW race. this is a SLOW horse.

in comparison, blind luck probably just ran about a mid to upper 90's beyer.

[Tee]

86 for Pioneer of the Nile.


What was the Beyer last year?

[bisket]

83 beyer speed figure.

seriously folks. nothing to see here.
slow pace = low beyer
this is why beyer is a comedian when it comes to poly

[Spalding No!]

slow pace = low beyer
this is why beyer is a comedian when it comes to poly

You need to get over to the Blind Luck thread.

They're ready to burn Lookin At Lucky at the stake in sacrifice to the newly diefied filly for running in a one-horse race (once Beautician eased).

Ironically, Lookin At Lucky finished faster than she did.

[cj]

slow pace = low beyer
this is why beyer is a comedian when it comes to poly

I agree about the slow pace, but that doesn't make the figures comical. They are what they are.

Imagine if Secretariat raced a 5k claimer capable of a 75 Beyer at 1 mile. Lets assume Secretariat is capable of a 120 Beyer. Since it is a virtual walkover, both horses pretty much canter for 6f, going in about 1:18. Secretariat comes home in 22 flat for a 1:40 without urging, while the claimer is all out to get 23 flat late and finish in 1:41. What is the figure? Do you give Secretariat a 120 and the claimer a 110, or Sec an 85 and the claimer a 75? Somewhere in between?

The above is greatly exaggerated, but that type race dynamic happens every day on every surface. Of course, it happens on some (turf, rubber) more than others (dirt). There are ways around this dilemma which I'm not going to get into here, but since Beyer is in the game of making final time speed figures and nothing more, what is he supposed to do?

[WinterTriangle]

Beyer is in the game of making final time speed figures and nothing more, what is he supposed to do?

Well you hit the nail on the head, CJ, by saying exactly what it is he does.

Perhaps this isn't understood---as I imagine, no, make that I know--- that some people think that Beyer is a handicapper who predicts race outcomes, and nothing is further from the truth. ( not meaning you bisket)

A man devotes his life to developing a certain science, and it is up to other people whether they want to use it or not. Its information you can use, or not. Like all data. :)

[bisket]

fact is using race times to handicap poly won't really give you a good picture of how talented a horse is going a route over the surface. jocks are part of the reason fore this. i think its a contest on who can get the first 1/2 the slowest sometimes ;) as long as there aren't any setbacks he's the best candidate for the tri i've seen thus far. although its early.

[bisket]

awwwright i throw yaz a bone on how i play against beyer and speed figs in general. a great example is courageous cat in the cup at a mile on turf. i can't remember the specifics, but this how i knew he was a dam good miler. he ran that 1 1/16 mile race at belmont and beat the variant that day by 2 and change (seconds), and shaved 1 and change (seconds) off the 3 year best time for that distance at belmont. no small feat at a class track like belmont. he got a 92 beyer. :eek: why so low. answer the track was playing fast that day :lol: ok einstein :lol: but lets look inside that race. (picture john madden with his white pencil on the tv screen right now) ;) on a blazing fast track they got the first 1/4 in 25 seconds :confused: . 1 SECOND ABOVE 12 SECOND FURS. cat finished the 1 1/16 mile race in 139 2/5. 2 and 3/5 seconds below 12 second furs.( this is by memory may not be exact) in my book BECAUSE THAT FIRST QUARTER WAS 1 SECOND ABOVE 12 SECOND FURLONGS he spotted the rest of the runners on turf that day at belmont 1 second and still beat the variant by two and some odd seconds and spotted the runner of the previous 3 year best time 1 SECOND AND STILL SHAVED 1 AND CHANGE OFF THE 3 YEAR BEST TIME. KINDA GOLDLIKOVA LIKE DON'T YA THINK :cool: . the beyer was low because the slow first 1/4 and the track played fast. a double whammy and a 92 fig for an other wise eye popping :eek: performance. didn't suprise me he was running stride for stride with the best miler in the world :p

[Murph]

NO sane person can read your post bisket. Why don't you ride Richard's Kid into the sunset?

[bisket]

here's what i'm saying. if you see a race time thats well below 12 second furlongs throughout the race, and the first 1/4 was run in 1 second more than 12 second furlongs (25 seconds) you can just about subtract another second off the race time. speed figs don't take this into consideration at all.

[Murph]

here's what i'm saying. if you see a race time thats well below 12 second furlongs throughout the race, and the first 1/4 was run in 1 second more than 12 second furlongs (25 seconds) you can just about subtract another second off the race time. speed figs don't take this into consideration at all.I still cannnot read your rantings. You refuse to use proper punctuations and spacing. You are still the same guy who said they "capped" the winner of the Pacific Classic aren't you?