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joanied
12-17-2009, 01:21 PM
1Lookin At LuckyGomez G K2Brady Blue EyesTalamo J3The ProgramEspinoza V4MarcelloValdivia J Jr5Make Music for MeSmith M E6Noble's PromiseAlbarado R J7Seattle RulerGarcia M8Wildlee SpecialSolis A

I guess we can start looking at the 2 year olds...and the Cash Cakk is as good a place as any.
Looks to be a very good race. Just for the fun of it...my picks:

Lookin at Lucky
Noble's Promise
The Program
Wildlee Special
:)

lamboguy
12-17-2009, 03:12 PM
1Lookin At LuckyGomez G K2Brady Blue EyesTalamo J3The ProgramEspinoza V4MarcelloValdivia J Jr5Make Music for MeSmith M E6Noble's PromiseAlbarado R J7Seattle RulerGarcia M8Wildlee SpecialSolis A

I guess we can start looking at the 2 year olds...and the Cash Cakk is as good a place as any.
Looks to be a very good race. Just for the fun of it...my picks:

Lookin at Lucky
Noble's Promise
The Program
Wildlee Special
:)if you want to see anice 2 yo, check out wildcat frankie, last saturday's 6th at calder. he got plenty more in the tank too

MickJ26
12-17-2009, 03:26 PM
I hope Baffert brings Lookin at Lucky to New York for the Wood Memorial.
He's going to need a start on dirt sooner or later and Baffert loves bringing his best horses to the biggest stage. The Mike Pegram silks have a great history.

Spalding No!
12-17-2009, 05:01 PM
I hope Baffert brings Lookin at Lucky to New York for the Wood Memorial.
He's going to need a start on dirt sooner or later and Baffert loves bringing his best horses to the biggest stage. The Mike Pegram silks have a great history.

When he used to have multiple Derby prospects (and it looks like that way again this year), Baffert used to invade the Fair Grounds. I would anticipate one of his top horses showing up there.

Recently, with lesser types, he's shipped to Sunland Park and Lone Star.

onefast99
12-17-2009, 06:12 PM
if you want to see anice 2 yo, check out wildcat frankie, last saturday's 6th at calder. he got plenty more in the tank too
He might be a good one the rest of that field were just horses. Let's see what he does vs winners. Hatchett may have a live one you never know!

joanied
12-17-2009, 06:56 PM
I hope Baffert brings Lookin at Lucky to New York for the Wood Memorial.
He's going to need a start on dirt sooner or later and Baffert loves bringing his best horses to the biggest stage. The Mike Pegram silks have a great history.

Me too:ThmbUp: and I'd bet 2-1 that he will...man, I would just love seeing Baffert & Pegram back on the TC Trail again...with a Derby winner...the sparks will fly:jump: and everyone will be having fun:)

sandpit
12-17-2009, 11:02 PM
Two colts: Walking the Beach and Maximus Ruler...runners for sure.

toussaud
12-17-2009, 11:30 PM
this is turning out to be a good year. I have my eye on a couple. Nordic Truce, Carrington Villiage, walking the beach, wildcat frankie, the afleet alex that won at aqu not too long ago, can't remember his name, the gray baffert horse looks like a freak.

WinterTriangle
12-18-2009, 02:59 AM
the afleet alex that won at aqu not too long ago, can't remember his name, the gray baffert horse looks like a freak.

Afleet Express?


Baffert has another gray, an Indian Charlie colt named CONVEYANCE. 2 starts, 2 wins.
http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorseInfo.cfm?refno=8006741&registry=T


I mostly like several from the Champagne Stakes. Super Saver, Discreetly Mine. I also still like my Aikenite.

list is very long. But--- my hunch is that the Derby winner has already run at least a 1 mile race. :)

joanied
12-18-2009, 07:21 PM
Afleet Express?


Baffert has another gray, an Indian Charlie colt named CONVEYANCE. 2 starts, 2 wins.
http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorseInfo.cfm?refno=8006741&registry=T


I mostly like several from the Champagne Stakes. Super Saver, Discreetly Mine. I also still like my Aikenite.

list is very long. But--- my hunch is that the Derby winner has already run at least a 1 mile race. :)

it is Afleet Express....and I read somewhere that Baffert is quite high on Conveyance...I also will be watching the others you mentioned, Winter T...all can be really good...good list, girl.:ThmbUp:

lamboguy
12-18-2009, 07:42 PM
one thing positive about afleet express is that he was on conventional and beat a much tougher field than wildcat frankie. wildcat frankie did run about the best race i have ever seen a first time starter run though. also frankie is a gelding so probably he won't be sold due to not residual value for him. if he had equipment he would sell for over $1million.

toussaud
12-18-2009, 08:01 PM
it is Afleet Express....and I read somewhere that Baffert is quite high on Conveyance...I also will be watching the others you mentioned, Winter T...all can be really good...good list, girl.:ThmbUp:


yes and yes. conveyance looks like the real deal, i dont' see how he doesn't get 2 turns with that pedigree.

I'm convinced that's why baffert isn't really pushing him that hard now.

if i were a betting man for the first saturday in may, i'd place a bet on him efore lookin at lucky

lamboguy
12-18-2009, 08:10 PM
my opinion of conveyance is that he ran good with not much behind him either. baffert going to have has work cut out for him to go further down the road, i like the afleet alex chances for him better. one thing about baffert is, he got experience and that goes miles when it comes down to winning these early races. personally i think baffert is as good as anyone, in my mind he over=achieved with pioneer of the nile last year, and has done that kind of work in the past.

toussaud
12-18-2009, 08:40 PM
my opinion of conveyance is that he ran good with not much behind him either. baffert going to have has work cut out for him to go further down the road, i like the afleet alex chances for him better. one thing about baffert is, he got experience and that goes miles when it comes down to winning these early races. personally i think baffert is as good as anyone, in my mind he over=achieved with pioneer of the nile last year, and has done that kind of work in the past.
the interal fractions of that race say otherwise.

22.20, 44.83, 56.65, 1:09.00 is racehorse time

and to use the zenyatta line it's the WAY he did. he was not shortining stride in his last furlong.

I dont' think he overachieved with POTN as much as he spotted him pitcure perfectly. he got the absolute most he could have possibly gotten out of that horse.

a horse that does not like dirt wins 2 main track grade 1's and comes in 2nd in the derby

lamboguy
12-18-2009, 08:49 PM
the interal fractions of that race say otherwise.

22.20, 44.83, 56.65, 1:09.00 is racehorse time

and to use the zenyatta line it's the WAY he did. he was not shortining stride in his last furlong.

I dont' think he overachieved with POTN as much as he spotted him pitcure perfectly. he got the absolute most he could have possibly gotten out of that horse.

a horse that does not like dirt wins 2 main track grade 1's and comes in 2nd in the derbyi admit he was amazing with pioneer of the nile, but pioneer ran against much better when he had his campagn. CONVEYANCE might be the horse of the century, but he is running in california. maybe we will see him someplace else at a later date, and maybe baffert pulls off another miracle which he is quite capable of, but if i was betting derby futures i woulld have to leave that horse out for the time being

WinterTriangle
12-18-2009, 08:54 PM
Lambo, yeah I like that Afleet one too.

yes and yes. conveyance looks like the real deal, i dont' see how he doesn't get 2 turns with that pedigree.

I'm convinced that's why baffert isn't really pushing him that hard now.


I think you're right about Baffert not pushing Conveyance hard. My hunch he has a special feeling for this one, and wants to move him along very methodically?

BTW, Toussaud's Spirit scratched MSW today at Laurel Race 5. :) 20-1 So hasn't raced yet.

(Not against the "silly name wager" once in a while. Always put a wager on Lovely Lolly, Lolly was my nickname in childhood. She won again this week paid $14.00....sitting around with visiting family back in July, they all chipped in on her, she won at $32.60. Hits the board often.)

Dahoss9698
12-18-2009, 08:58 PM
one thing positive about afleet express is that he was on conventional and beat a much tougher field than wildcat frankie. wildcat frankie did run about the best race i have ever seen a first time starter run though. also frankie is a gelding so probably he won't be sold due to not residual value for him. if he had equipment he would sell for over $1million.

Best race you have ever seen a first timer run? Seriously?

lamboguy
12-18-2009, 09:15 PM
Best race you have ever seen a first timer run? Seriously?i have never seen a buyer number of 95 for a first time starter ever, and when i did the number i came out with 102. i think their eyeballs were dancing and were afraid to asign an over 1 hundred number for a first time starter.

the most important thing to keep in mind is that the horse had no competion in the race behind him. there were 3 decent horses, one of them ran a distant 2d and was never a factor to the winner, and the other 2 hopped the start of the race. that is why he is not getting big time recognition right now. the other side of the coin is that my partner broke and trained this horse and he absolutely loves him and says he will run all day. and my partner is no stranger to winning bigtime 3 yo races in may

Dahoss9698
12-18-2009, 09:25 PM
i have never seen a buyer number of 95 for a first time starter ever, and when i did the number i came out with 102. i think their eyeballs were dancing and were afraid to asign an over 1 hundred number for a first time starter.

the most important thing to keep in mind is that the horse had no competion in the race behind him. there were 3 decent horses, one of them ran a distant 2d and was never a factor to the winner, and the other 2 hopped the start of the race. that is why he is not getting big time recognition right now. the other side of the coin is that my partner broke and trained this horse and he absolutely loves him and says he will run all day. and my partner is no stranger to winning bigtime 3 yo races in may

Ever hear of Formal Gold? He had a 112 beyer in his debut. There have been other 100 plus number debuts, but most disappointed in their careers.

Don't get me wrong, he was very impressive in his debut. But I'd like to see how the horses run back out of the race.

lamboguy
12-18-2009, 09:47 PM
Ever hear of Formal Gold? He had a 112 beyer in his debut. There have been other 100 plus number debuts, but most disappointed in their careers.

Don't get me wrong, he was very impressive in his debut. But I'd like to see how the horses run back out of the race.
i didn't remember the buyer on formal gold, but my partner broke and trained him too for mr. murphy and perry, and he likes this one more at this stage.

we all want to see if he beats winners, only thing is he might be 50-1 to win derby today and if he beats winners 10-1. he will be under even money to win a good alowance race in gulfstream and if they are wild he would be 8-1 or more to win the fountain of youth later in january.

Dahoss9698
12-18-2009, 10:09 PM
i didn't remember the buyer on formal gold, but my partner broke and trained him too for mr. murphy and perry, and he likes this one more at this stage.

we all want to see if he beats winners, only thing is he might be 50-1 to win derby today and if he beats winners 10-1. he will be under even money to win a good alowance race in gulfstream and if they are wild he would be 8-1 or more to win the fountain of youth later in january.

He's probably 500-1 to even be in the gate in the Derby. Who would take 10-1 in a future bet on him winning the Derby if he wins an allowance race next out?

He was impressive and clearly you like him. And I know you have some ties to him. But lets be a little realistic here. Until the horses he beat run back, he beat a few modestly bred firsters and a few horses that are destined for claiming races in a 5.5 furlong race. I think the jury is still out.

lamboguy
12-18-2009, 10:22 PM
He's probably 500-1 to even be in the gate in the Derby. Who would take 10-1 in a future bet on him winning the Derby if he wins an allowance race next out?

He was impressive and clearly you like him. And I know you have some ties to him. But lets be a little realistic here. Until the horses he beat run back, he beat a few modestly bred firsters and a few horses that are destined for claiming races in a 5.5 furlong race. I think the jury is still out.i am being as realistic as possible, the boys that buy their big horses have offered big money for him, but withdrew their offers once they found out he was a gelding. they put him up at 50-1 in a future book in vegas this week. i know they rob you on the price and i woudl never bet him ahead of time. i would put him at the top of the class today vs. any other nw2 2 yo's today. naturally i can't put him ahead of a horse that has beaten winners and has 3 or 4 wins to date. maybe i am going to say it a different way, he has as much or more talent than any other 2yo after their first start this year. beating a less than stellar field in calder last saturday does not add to his apeal. this is what dreams are made of in this game.

toussaud
12-18-2009, 11:25 PM
oh yeah lion heart's little bro can run a little. connemara.

WinterTriangle
12-19-2009, 02:34 AM
oh yeah lion heart's little bro can run a little. connemara.

Yeah, Connemara is a nice one.

But like I said, I think the KY Derby winner has already run a mile+ and can show stamina or will by Feb. I don't think a lot about sprinters who come in 1st and 2nd now because they just never show up at Derby time.

I like Eskendereya (Giant's Causeway out of Aldebaran Light by Seattle Slew), throw out that BC race on fake dirt. I like that AP Indy filly, Chimayo.

For the TC races, I look for real dirt horses from Delaware, Belmont, Saratoga, Oaklawn, etc. And I have a lot of research on speed/stamina lines.

But it's never too early to start talking about Derby horses.:D

toussaud
12-19-2009, 02:54 AM
Yeah, Connemara is a nice one.

But like I said, I think the KY Derby winner has already run a mile+ and can show stamina or will by Feb. I don't think a lot about sprinters who come in 1st and 2nd now because they just never show up at Derby time.

I like Eskendereya (Giant's Causeway out of Aldebaran Light by Seattle Slew), throw out that BC race on fake dirt. I like that AP Indy filly, Chimayo.

For the TC races, I look for real dirt horses from Delaware, Belmont, Saratoga, Oaklawn, etc. And I have a lot of research on speed/stamina lines.

But it's never too early to start talking about Derby horses.:D


I am going to take a difference stance.

Not only are you talking the difference between sprint to route, but the CLASS difference... in other words a horse that has the real potential to be a legit derby horse will win or come in 2nd at the very least, in a sprint on class alone.

The absolute sucker bet as long as horse racing has been around, has been the hard closing sprinter in a 2YO grade 1 or 2 race that "galloped out soo well" and is "begging for extra distance". They could run around the track 5 times and pyro was never gonna catch war pass. Just like for the most aprt they could not write a race long enough for alydar to finally get past affirmed. 7 to 3 with 1 of the 3 being a DQ.


last year it was patenta "(I think that's how you spell his name) was gonna be a legit derby horse once they start going real distances. Then it was pyro before that. that closing style was 'perfect' for 10 furlongs.

a high class closer is will win a sprint off class.

egreen
12-19-2009, 03:28 PM
this is turning out to be a good year. I have my eye on a couple. Nordic Truce, Carrington Villiage, walking the beach, wildcat frankie, the afleet alex that won at aqu not too long ago, can't remember his name, the gray baffert horse looks like a freak.

According to www.twitter.com/derbycontenders, Carrington Village has a shin injury.

WinterTriangle
12-20-2009, 01:21 AM
this is turning out to be a good year. I have my eye on a couple. Nordic Truce, Carrington Villiage, walking the beach, wildcat frankie, the afleet alex that won at aqu not too long ago, can't remember his name, the gray baffert horse looks like a freak.

Just saw this on Twitter:

Carrington Village is sidelined with a cracked shin.

joanied
12-20-2009, 02:03 PM
I loved Lookin at Lucky's Cash Call...now this colt has started from the way outside, and now the one hole...very good education for him...didn't like his being rank at first, but noticed he didn't fight Gomez and settled nicely...love his stride...long and effortless. Stay sound Lucky:ThmbUp:
Nobel's Promise is looking good too...but I'm not sure he'd have gotten by Lucky...I nearly had the triple, The Program just got nipped for the show...he's a nice one too, and won't count him out.
I wonder when Baffert runs Conveyance next?

It's starting to look like we have another really good bunch to watch...and, if you don't mind me saying, at this point in time, IMO, we shouldn't be talking about the 'competition' these youngsters are running with now...it will all sort itself out...it really doesn't matter to much now what is running behind them, or what kind of a 'number' they get...IMO:)

lamboguy
12-20-2009, 02:16 PM
I loved Lookin at Lucky's Cash Call...now this colt has started from the way outside, and now the one hole...very good education for him...didn't like his being rank at first, but noticed he didn't fight Gomez and settled nicely...love his stride...long and effortless. Stay sound Lucky:ThmbUp:
Nobel's Promise is looking good too...but I'm not sure he'd have gotten by Lucky...I nearly had the triple, The Program just got nipped for the show...he's a nice one too, and won't count him out.
I wonder when Baffert runs Conveyance next?

It's starting to look like we have another really good bunch to watch...and, if you don't mind me saying, at this point in time, IMO, we shouldn't be talking about the 'competition' these youngsters are running with now...it will all sort itself out...it really doesn't matter to much now what is running behind them, or what kind of a 'number' they get...IMO:)i loved lucky's race yesterday, but i don't thinkhe is the one that can beat wildcat frankie, even with his experience.

Dahoss9698
12-20-2009, 02:20 PM
It's starting to look like we have another really good bunch to watch...and, if you don't mind me saying, at this point in time, IMO, we shouldn't be talking about the 'competition' these youngsters are running with now...it will all sort itself out...it really doesn't matter to much now what is running behind them, or what kind of a 'number' they get...IMO:)

When is the right time to talk about what is behind the horses that are running? How else do we gauge how good a horse is, or isn't?

lamboguy
12-20-2009, 02:37 PM
When is the right time to talk about what is behind the horses that are running? How else do we gauge how good a horse is, or isn't?mcpeak's horse wasn't bad yesterday, but i doubt kenny would have that horse in california if he though he had a chance to win a big race down the line. all his races were on synthetic so far.

joanied
12-20-2009, 02:47 PM
When is the right time to talk about what is behind the horses that are running? How else do we gauge how good a horse is, or isn't?

Because at this point in time, trainers are all trying their youngsters...some will go on, some won't...in other words, IMO, they are all pretty much on even terms right now...finding their way so to speak...so just for the sake of argument...the horses that Looking at Lucky beats now, may become better as the months go on, maybe a few of the ones Wildcat Frankie beat will find themselves a month from now, and win getting high numbers...it's just my opinion that most of the youngsters are still finding themselves and some will get better, some not...so to judge them, at this point in time, isn't too important.
I hope I said all that so it makes sense:)

PS..as for gauging how good a horse is...it's not always what's behind him...it's how he wins, how he looks...you know what I mean, I'm sure.

Dahoss9698
12-20-2009, 02:54 PM
mcpeak's horse wasn't bad yesterday, but i doubt kenny would have that horse in california if he though he had a chance to win a big race down the line. all his races were on synthetic so far.

Agreed. I imagine he'll be on the turf next year after a failed experiment on dirt at some point.

Spalding No!
12-20-2009, 03:17 PM
Agreed. I imagine he'll be on the turf next year after a failed experiment on dirt at some point.

That reminds me of your comment in the other thread.

Do you think Bridgetown is still pointing to Royal Ascot after his great Generous effort?

lamboguy
12-20-2009, 03:19 PM
the truth of the matter is you are only as good as what you beat. i know you can't pick your competition, but big trainers with big horses go to big and tough races to see what they got and how they can improve.

if all it meant was a horse had to run good, they wouldn't need to run the kentucky derby this year..

Dahoss9698
12-20-2009, 03:29 PM
That reminds me of your comment in the other thread.

Do you think Bridgetown is still pointing to Royal Ascot after his great Generous effort?

I hope not. But you know one of the two of them will at least be considered for a trip overseas.

bisket
12-20-2009, 06:31 PM
frankie is definately worth keeping an eye on. just off that effort the horse doesn't appear to have a problem getting a mile in graded comp. lets see how he does going forward, but he's definately worth keeping an eye on. he got into a really nice rythm, and gets everything out of each stride without straining himself at all. that rythm is what says to me he's got a shot at being a legit derby contender. one sub 24 second 1/4 and then a series of 24 second 1/4's; some with a little change; is what wins the derby :ThmbUp: for a horse with speed

lamboguy
12-20-2009, 07:03 PM
frankie is definately worth keeping an eye on. just off that effort the horse doesn't appear to have a problem getting a mile in graded comp. lets see how he does going forward, but he's definately worth keeping an eye on. he got into a really nice rythm, and gets everything out of each stride without straining himself at all. that rythm is what says to me he's got a shot at being a legit derby contender. one sub 24 second 1/4 and then a series of 24 second 1/4's; some with a little change; is what wins the derby :ThmbUp: for a horse with speedas of today WILCAT FRANKIE still is owned by a great owner, FRANK BERTOLINO. i don't know of a better owner than that guy, he has over 40 years experience. i will know every single step that horse makes so i would be more than happy to clue every one into it before he runs. he is based in calder, and that place is a great track to train on. it is very deep, and the horses get alot out of it while they train there. its exciting to watch, but we know the next step tells the whole story. the horse was bred for win early and cheap speed. so lets see if this guy fools everyone including myself and steps right up to the plate and knocks it out of the park.

i will be rooting as hard as if i owned him for that guy to suceed. BERTOLINO has had some of the toughest tragedy's that a man could have this year. i hope that he keeps FRANKIE, and the horse helps him make some amends for a very tough 2009.

WinterTriangle
12-20-2009, 09:28 PM
Wildcat Frankie did run a beautiful 5.5F race.

However, I'm pretty into pedigree stuff for TC races, his DI is over well over 4.00 (my personal cut-off point) at 5.00. From what I can find, his sire is not on top sires list able to run 9F or over, nor avg. winning distance over 8.00 on chefs. His damsires pedigree looks a little better though.

I admit that I do some Dosage research early on. It's hard to win a classic race if your classic, solid and professional (last 3) numbers are low. Not saying it's the be-all-end-all, but there are usually enough numbers within the BICSP categories to give you some direction.

Frankies is 1-3-2-0-0 clearly a speed horse! Little stamina and next to no classic.
Compare to
Big Brown (4-7-23-2-0)
Street Cry (8-1-12-0-1)
Barbaro (14-8-21-2-1)
AP Indy (13-10-20-3-0)
Funnycide (7-2-11-3-1)

then you have DaTara:
4-2-5-0-1 clearly not stellar, but that "1" a the end may point to stamina that allowed the Belmont win.

Where they have a ton of speed at left, but also big numbers in classic and also a little something in solid and professional. This is what a classic distance horse's profile looks like.

doesn't mean it can't happen, esp. if you have enough in the other categories, but highly unlikely if you don't. I'd say impossible.


Wildcat Heir's Current Top Performers Worldwide are winning.... but at 6F distances. So I'm not seeing a classic contender here.


Right now, just *glancing*, for me, and yes, it's early, so I'm just playing around: a for instance would be:

Interactif has great dosage (12-13-15-2-2) and that last "2" means he could even win the Belmont .
On top of that, both his sire and damsire have average winning distances well over 8.00.
And on top of THAT, his sire is on the leading sires list for running over 9F! His DI is 2.83 (and love his dams sire line with Domino!)

So, basically, I put these sprint runners thru a little pedigree screen after they run something impressive.:)

bisket
12-20-2009, 09:44 PM
pedigree only gives you an idea of what they MIGHT be like on the track. i go by what i see on the track. let me put it to you this way. there were many years that smarty wouldn't have won the derby, and there are many years when smarty wins the derby. in my book smarty's best distance was probably 1 1/8 mile, but against the crowd he ran against. he was able to win at 1 1/4 mile. i see much more than cheap speed out of franks nice smooth way of going. that i'm sure of. now what he does when another horse runs with him at the beginning of a 1 1/8 mile race or longer will determine his capacity to get a route.

toussaud
12-20-2009, 09:48 PM
Wildcat Frankie did run a beautiful 5.5F race.

However, I'm pretty into pedigree stuff for TC races, his DI is over well over 4.00 (my personal cut-off point) at 5.00. From what I can find, his sire is not on top sires list able to run 9F or over, nor avg. winning distance over 8.00 on chefs. His damsires pedigree looks a little better though.

I admit that I do some Dosage research early on. It's hard to win a classic race if your classic, solid and professional (last 3) numbers are low. Not saying it's the be-all-end-all, but there are usually enough numbers within the BICSP categories to give you some direction.

Frankies is 1-3-2-0-0 clearly a speed horse! Little stamina and next to no classic.
Compare to
Big Brown (4-7-23-2-0)
Street Cry (8-1-12-0-1)
Barbaro (14-8-21-2-1)
AP Indy (13-10-20-3-0)
Funnycide (7-2-11-3-1)

then you have DaTara:
4-2-5-0-1 clearly not stellar, but that "1" a the end may point to stamina that allowed the Belmont win.

Where they have a ton of speed at left, but also big numbers in classic and also a little something in solid and professional. This is what a classic distance horse's profile looks like.

doesn't mean it can't happen, esp. if you have enough in the other categories, but highly unlikely if you don't. I'd say impossible.


Wildcat Heir's Current Top Performers Worldwide are winning.... but at 6F distances. So I'm not seeing a classic contender here.


Right now, just *glancing*, for me, and yes, it's early, so I'm just playing around: a for instance would be:

Interactif has great dosage (12-13-15-2-2) and that last "2" means he could even win the Belmont .
On top of that, both his sire and damsire have average winning distances well over 8.00.
And on top of THAT, his sire is on the leading sires list for running over 9F! His DI is 2.83 (and love his dams sire line with Domino!)

So, basically, I put these sprint runners thru a little pedigree screen after they run something impressive.:)
you and I think so much alike it's scary.

the First thing I look for in a derby horse is a horses dosage, in particular, I like to see his Classic number higher than any other, perfably more than Brilliant and Intemediate combined Two horses did this last year and I stock to them, quality road and rachael alexandra. Big brown last year as well and stree sense the year before him.


it's not foul proof whatsoever, but I would not put a future bet on a horse or go around touting a horse for the better part of half of a year like we derby fantics do..well, I want to at least think he can take it.

with the right training it can be overcome, the distance limitations, not saying the guy is not a good trainer, but american training in general is not condusive to training for distance.

WinterTriangle
12-20-2009, 10:32 PM
pedigree only gives you an idea of what they MIGHT be like on the track. i go by what i see on the track.

So do I. ALL the horses in my list in the derby topic (I just posted it) did well in their races.

But I also looked thru every KY Derby winner in the last 20 years, and found *very* few with zero points in both S and P in dosage profile. It just hardly ever happens. So, if I'm stuck between some really good racers, I'm going to go with that to tip the scales.

If you look at dosage index of the TC-type race winners, not the 50-1's like MTB, you will see a "pattern".

For the Belmont, I'm going to go with some stamina, and if I don't see it has been "trained" into the horse, then I'm going by the dosage points in stamina.

Spalding No!
12-20-2009, 10:42 PM
But I also looked thru every KY Derby winner in the last 20 years, and found *very* few with zero points in both S and P in dosage profile. It just hardly ever happens. So, if I'm stuck between some really good racers, I'm going to go with that to tip the scales.

Of the last 21 Kentucky Derby winners, 9 had zero points in the Solid and Professional categories.

That's nearly half.

LottaKash
12-20-2009, 11:44 PM
Many years ago, my uncle used to bet the "future-book" in (I believe) Caliente, Mexico.....He just bet-solely on "Calumet Farms" horses....He used to make a killing on some of those Derbies...:jump:

best,

WinterTriangle
12-20-2009, 11:57 PM
Of the last 21 Kentucky Derby winners, 9 had zero points in the Solid and Professional categories.

That's nearly half.

There's other stuff mixed in with that though, as discussed.

You go ahead and bet on them, though. ;)

Spalding No!
12-21-2009, 12:03 AM
There's other stuff mixed in with that though, as discussed.

You go ahead and bet on them, though. ;)

Not a big deal.

I just wanted to know how something that occurs nearly half the time "hardly ever happens".

It was a unique perspective. Even for this board.

WinterTriangle
12-21-2009, 12:29 AM
Actually, Spaulding, I had more information I should have added to that with regard to those last numbers which I should have included in full.

Some of the "other stuff". Those last 3 numbers are very important to Derby winners. If you add the classic + (2 X the solid) + the professional, the result is 8 or more for every derby winner in the past 50 years (except for Giacomo and MTB---theirs were similar).

(Anyone who wagered Gayego to win lost their $, for instance.:) )

Also, in the past 50 derbies, 47 of 50 winners had 18 or higher total points in their dosage profiles. (And none in 50 years had both a dosage lower than 18 points and a center of distribution less than 1:05. Even Giacomo and MTB didn't have those two things together, although MTB cut it very close! )

Then there are also conduit mare aptitudinal designations, etc. to consider.


I find the best horses then put them thru my "derby stat" tests.

there's tons more stats, but these are some I play with.


As for "this board", I'm always into learning from people. Can you suggest some other forums that have more valuable insights and such? You can PM me.



One thing I notice about those who think all this dosage info is whoo whoo is that they believe that people use it ALONE. I don't. It's just an added too.
Taqarub had a great profile, as did many others who didn't pan out, like Friesan Fire. I use their workouts and races of course.

Cat Thief
12-22-2009, 11:56 AM
Haven't checked out pedigree of Conveyance but as I recollect Indian Charlie was very speedy but didnt quite have the derby distance. I think he came in third after running on the engine

toussaud
12-22-2009, 01:23 PM
i admit he was amazing with pioneer of the nile, but pioneer ran against much better when he had his campagn. CONVEYANCE might be the horse of the century, but he is running in california. maybe we will see him someplace else at a later date, and maybe baffert pulls off another miracle which he is quite capable of, but if i was betting derby futures i woulld have to leave that horse out for the time being
I can agree with this.

joanied
12-22-2009, 04:58 PM
Haven't checked out pedigree of Conveyance but as I recollect Indian Charlie was very speedy but didnt quite have the derby distance. I think he came in third after running on the engine


His pedigree suggests he cannot go long...his dam is a daughter of Holy Bull...so that might help...but her Dam is a Mr.P

Of course, we know they sometimes outrun their pedigree...but a look says no.

http://www.pedigreequery.com/conveyance4

toussaud
12-23-2009, 01:11 AM
His pedigree suggests he cannot go long...his dam is a daughter of Holy Bull...so that might help...but her Dam is a Mr.P

Of course, we know they sometimes outrun their pedigree...but a look says no.

http://www.pedigreequery.com/conveyance4

I have to disagree. Indian charlie won the santa anita derby and his only loss was the kentucky derby.

he is just freaking fast, but while he is not dynaformer or anything, he can get a 2 turn horse.

Steve R
12-23-2009, 08:58 AM
I have to disagree. Indian charlie won the santa anita derby and his only loss was the kentucky derby.

he is just freaking fast, but while he is not dynaformer or anything, he can get a 2 turn horse.
Indian Charlie has sired just one major winner at a classic distance, Fleet Indian, and only four major winners as far as 9f with only one in the last four years.

Holy Bull as a broodmare sire has never gotten a major winner at a classic distance and only one at 9f, Going Ballistic.

Pell Mell
12-23-2009, 09:48 AM
I'm high on one that's never even run yet but I love his pedigree. His name is Uptowncharlybrown. ;)

joanied
12-23-2009, 10:30 AM
I have to disagree. Indian charlie won the santa anita derby and his only loss was the kentucky derby.

he is just freaking fast, but while he is not dynaformer or anything, he can get a 2 turn horse.

Well, yes...and I did say a lot of horses will run through their pedigree...but ya gotta admit, just looking at Conveyance's pedigree, it does suggest, he can't get the classic distance...Holy Bull could, and although, as Steve R mentions, da Bull hasn't done much as a broodmare sire...ya never know.
Then there is the Baffert factor...I have confidence that Baffert can stretch this one out....combine that with Indian Charlie speed...hmmmm...Baffert being high on him is a no brainer:ThmbUp: :)

toussaud
12-23-2009, 12:40 PM
yeah i guess you are right. damnit I like this one too

joanied
12-23-2009, 01:59 PM
yeah i guess you are right. damnit I like this one too

If he stays sound...he'll win the Derby, IMO....I know that is crazy, we have a long way to go yet...and no doubt we'll be seeing some nice horses develope...but you can never doubt Baffert...hell, if not for Calvin, he'd have won the Derby last year with Pioneer...IMO, Lookin at Lucky just has a great way of going, seems intelligent, he's a gorgeous colt, so well balanced...and I think Baffert will run him on dirt before the 1st sat. in May...

PaceAdvantage
12-23-2009, 04:36 PM
Holy Bull as a broodmare sire has never gotten a major winner at a classic distance and only one at 9f, Going Ballistic.I know very little about the inner workings of breeding and such...does the lack of a classic distance winner as a broodmare sire matter all that much after siring a Kentucky Derby winner?

joanied
12-23-2009, 04:58 PM
I know very little about the inner workings of breeding and such...does the lack of a classic distance winner as a broodmare sire matter all that much after siring a Kentucky Derby winner?

In the case of Holy Bull...IMO, yes. But it's in the long run...and this is just my theory... Holy Bull sired a KD winner...but, his total number of graded stakes winners is not that good...as a sire, other than the KD winner, he hasn't been all that good, and as of this point in time, it looks like he won't be a sire of sires either...so, it would be a good thing if he could make his mark as a broodmare sire, which in the grand scheme of breeding, would be a very good thing...sorta like Secretariat...he did sire a number of stakes winners, but went way beyond that as a broodmare sire...and folks that buy at the sales, always look at the broodmare sire of a horse they are interested in.

With a horse like Conveyance, who will most likely be a Derby contender...seeing his broodmare sire as one that can get the classic distance, and has produced a classic winner, you can then consider, that although Indian Charlie is known for getting speed...Holy Bull will, hopefully, throw in the stamina...and isn't that what you want in a Derby prospect...speed and the ability to carry it the classic distance.

toussaud
12-23-2009, 05:05 PM
talent wise he's a top 3 talent. And I don't see how a son of indian charlie and a holy bull damsire, won't like dirt. hell i'm suprised he likes synethics.

joanied
12-23-2009, 05:14 PM
I think every colt trying for the Derby this year is going to have to race on dirt at least a few times before May...I know if I was a CA trainer, I'd take any and all my Derby horses to a track with dirt before May...why take a chance...why allow a colt to get so 'used' to running on the fake stuff, that on Derby day he feels real dirt and thinks...hey, what's this? (and I can't count shipping to Churchill a week out and training on dirt...it just ain't the same as racing on it for horses that have felt nothing but rubber under their feet)

toussaud
12-23-2009, 06:32 PM
I think every colt trying for the Derby this year is going to have to race on dirt at least a few times before May...I know if I was a CA trainer, I'd take any and all my Derby horses to a track with dirt before May...why take a chance...why allow a colt to get so 'used' to running on the fake stuff, that on Derby day he feels real dirt and thinks...hey, what's this? (and I can't count shipping to Churchill a week out and training on dirt...it just ain't the same as racing on it for horses that have felt nothing but rubber under their feet)


let me rephrase that for you. if I were a CA trainer AND I THOGUTH MY HORSE HAD A LEGIT CHANCE TO WIN THE KENTUCY DERBY I would race on dirt.

If not, I'd rack up the Grade 1 and additional hype in socal and dodge everyone for as long as possible.


I'd be willing to take a grade 1 loss in a prep if it is serioulsy a prep if I have a legit shot at the Derby.

If not, just take the synethic grade 1 win and go to stud. I think baffert played POTN perfectly last year in this instance. he was a turf horse and baffert knew it. he got the most value out of him.

lamboguy
12-23-2009, 06:40 PM
let me rephrase that for you. if I were a CA trainer AND I THOGUTH MY HORSE HAD A LEGIT CHANCE TO WIN THE KENTUCY DERBY I would race on dirt.

If not, I'd rack up the Grade 1 and additional hype in socal and dodge everyone for as long as possible.


I'd be willing to take a grade 1 loss in a prep if it is serioulsy a prep if I have a legit shot at the Derby.

If not, just take the synethic grade 1 win and go to stud. I think baffert played POTN perfectly last year in this instance. he was a turf horse and baffert knew it. he got the most value out of him.its scary how good baffert is.
as far as horses making surface switches, i wouldn't have a clue what the best way to do it is. i know that when you try to convert a cushion track horse over to a conventional surface horse you risk injuries in a big way to the animal. the horses are just not used to it. maybe a good trainer can figure out a process where the horse feels comfortable. and if there is such a trainer out there that can figure it out, bob baffert is your man. he works miracles time and time again and i am sure he will develop a plan. i hope he suceeds.

toussaud
12-23-2009, 06:48 PM
its scary how good baffert is.
as far as horses making surface switches, i wouldn't have a clue what the best way to do it is. i know that when you try to convert a cushion track horse over to a conventional surface horse you risk injuries in a big way to the animal. the horses are just not used to it. maybe a good trainer can figure out a process where the horse feels comfortable. and if there is such a trainer out there that can figure it out, bob baffert is your man. he works miracles time and time again and i am sure he will develop a plan. i hope he suceeds.

I also think t's very overlooked at how good of a trainer bob baffert is.

He's not the only one getting horse flesh out in cali, yet the guy has a freaking loaded gun pointed right at the first saturday in may. he has 4 horses with legit derby prospects. He's not the only trainer out there with shippments of 2YO.s

the only gripe I have about baffert you can forget it with a turf horse.

is baffert that good or is he the russel baze of the socal trainers?

If I were baffert, and say, lookin at lucky.. if you are going to give him 2 starts, I wouldn't even bother starting in socal this year. it's a waste of time.

I don't think horses don't so much "like or don't like" surfaces as they are used to and not used to.

I think this is what you saw with papa clem in the arknansas derby. after a while he got adjusted and ran accordingly.

asking a horse to run all his life on a track then take him to a different surface and give him a week and a work over it and expect him to run the race of his life is not realistic.

lamboguy
12-23-2009, 07:43 PM
I also think t's very overlooked at how good of a trainer bob baffert is.

He's not the only one getting horse flesh out in cali, yet the guy has a freaking loaded gun pointed right at the first saturday in may. he has 4 horses with legit derby prospects. He's not the only trainer out there with shippments of 2YO.s

the only gripe I have about baffert you can forget it with a turf horse.

is baffert that good or is he the russel baze of the socal trainers?

If I were baffert, and say, lookin at lucky.. if you are going to give him 2 starts, I wouldn't even bother starting in socal this year. it's a waste of time.

I don't think horses don't so much "like or don't like" surfaces as they are used to and not used to.

I think this is what you saw with papa clem in the arknansas derby. after a while he got adjusted and ran accordingly.

asking a horse to run all his life on a track then take him to a different surface and give him a week and a work over it and expect him to run the race of his life is not realistic.most of his 2 yo's are broke and trained by a real good training center in ocala, MCKATHAN, they send a horse ready to him and then he takes them to the next level. baffert runs a great program and he is mr. california as far as young stars go. i am sure they allow baffert to have more 2 yo's training on their facilities than anyone else because the man gets results for ever now.

WinterTriangle
12-25-2009, 05:43 PM
Baffert has given Lucky an amazing foundation to complement his beautiful pedigree.

Whether one thinks it's too much to soon, or on the wrong surface, I can't judge, since I don't pretend to be a race horse trainer and really wouldn't know.

I have nothing but the greatest admiration for Baffert's skillls.

toussaud
12-25-2009, 07:11 PM
Baffert has given Lucky an amazing foundation to complement his beautiful pedigree.

Whether one thinks it's too much to soon, or on the wrong surface, I can't judge, since I don't pretend to be a race horse trainer and really wouldn't know.

I have nothing but the greatest admiration for Baffert's skillls.

I just don't think he's fast enough. has nothing to do with surface or pedigree or foundation. he's slow.

there is a certain level of.. brilliance.. it takes to win the derby, that I don't think he has in him.

Pell Mell
12-26-2009, 04:00 PM
I'm high on one that's never even run yet but I love his pedigree. His name is Uptowncharlybrown. ;)

He just blew them away in his first start in the 8th at Tampa. What a stride on this horse! This horse can get it done in May.:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

lamboguy
12-26-2009, 05:09 PM
He just blew them away in his first start in the 8th at Tampa. What a stride on this horse! This horse can get it done in May.:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:he is an amazing horse and i did bet him even though he had 3 gate works out of his last 4, i think he needs to break better to run with the big boys, if seewald straightens him out he is definately a force in 2010.

how does a seewald horse like that pay a whopping $8.80, his follower's must have been out real late last night and woke up to late today! i told ian the horse would pay under 2-1. i guess i am wrong again!!

bisket
12-26-2009, 05:31 PM
he is an amazing horse and i did bet him even though he had 3 gate works out of his last 4, i think he needs to break better to run with the big boys, if seewald straightens him out he is definately a force in 2010.

how does a seewald horse like that pay a whopping $8.80, his follower's must have been out real late last night and woke up to late today! i told ian the horse would pay under 2-1. i guess i am wrong again!!
i think sometimes its better they don't break so great; as the distances get longer i think sometimes it helps. sometimes breaking in front can get a horse a little to eager, and this can become an impediment in their develpoment. at the longer distances his 1st 1/4 in this race would have him right there with the leaders most times already. nice horse. he's in my stable and i'll keep an eye on him. i've noticed that tampa has become at track where some good derby prospects have developed. can't complain about the two that developed there last year. they both took graded preps at other tracks just before the derby.

Pell Mell
01-11-2010, 09:21 PM
He just blew them away in his first start in the 8th at Tampa. What a stride on this horse! This horse can get it done in May.:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

As I said earlier, in post #53, I was high on this one and he hadn't made a start yet. He may be coming along late but so did Curlin.

He's being entered in the Pasco Stakes Sat. at Tam. If all goes well he's headed for the Sam Davis.

Come on Uptowncharlybrown! :kiss:

joanied
01-12-2010, 02:04 PM
I just don't think he's fast enough. has nothing to do with surface or pedigree or foundation. he's slow.

there is a certain level of.. brilliance.. it takes to win the derby, that I don't think he has in him.

Oh, we don't know that for certain...IMO, Baffert isn't trying to get any speed from Lucky...just a very good foundation...and getting him to relax and rate...I think Baffert winds him up at the right time...this colt has kinda shown he wants to go, go, go...but hasn't be allowed to do it, for good reason...he ain't a War Pass type of horse, thank goodness.

I also have to agree with the fact that Baffert needs to get him out of CA. for his next two starts...IMO, I am not sure 2 is sufficient, but we are talking Bobby Baffert...so, what do I know:)

lamboguy
01-12-2010, 02:20 PM
Oh, we don't know that for certain...IMO, Baffert isn't trying to get any speed from Lucky...just a very good foundation...and getting him to relax and rate...I think Baffert winds him up at the right time...this colt has kinda shown he wants to go, go, go...but hasn't be allowed to do it, for good reason...he ain't a War Pass type of horse, thank goodness.

I also have to agree with the fact that Baffert needs to get him out of CA. for his next two starts...IMO, I am not sure 2 is sufficient, but we are talking Bobby Baffert...so, what do I know:)i honestly think that the spectacular bid stakes at gulfsteam was a little better race than the one that lucky came out of in california. i am not saying that the horse can't improve, but he would not be that likely a candiate to win outside of california.

joanied
01-12-2010, 06:13 PM
i honestly think that the spectacular bid stakes at gulfsteam was a little better race than the one that lucky came out of in california. i am not saying that the horse can't improve, but he would not be that likely a candiate to win outside of california.

Remains to be seen...but I think Baffert does have a CA race picked for his next start...can't recall...must be the SA Derby?
If Baffert keeps him in CA. and doesn't start him on dirt before the Derby, I may get off this one...but for now, I really like him...I do admit, I am just now starting to keep track of the newly turned 3 yr olds...and there is quite a few to watch...at this point in time, IMO, Derby hopefuls are just starting to come around...and IMO, unless one colt happens to be some kinda 'freak'...too much can and will happen in the next couple of months...but man, oh, man...ain't it fun:jump:

lamboguy
01-12-2010, 07:07 PM
Remains to be seen...but I think Baffert does have a CA race picked for his next start...can't recall...must be the SA Derby?
If Baffert keeps him in CA. and doesn't start him on dirt before the Derby, I may get off this one...but for now, I really like him...I do admit, I am just now starting to keep track of the newly turned 3 yr olds...and there is quite a few to watch...at this point in time, IMO, Derby hopefuls are just starting to come around...and IMO, unless one colt happens to be some kinda 'freak'...too much can and will happen in the next couple of months...but man, oh, man...ain't it fun:jump:we had another this year that frank calabreese bought, TAHITAN WARRIOR. if the horse vets out he is selling for big money. both horses are only fringe players at this point of time. wildcat frankie doesn't have the right dossage numbers for the distance, but he does have alot of gas in the tank. he ran second in the spectacular bid, but i think he showed more to me than the winner.

Pell Mell
01-16-2010, 04:39 PM
He just blew them away in his first start in the 8th at Tampa. What a stride on this horse! This horse can get it done in May.:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

Old Chucky blew them away again! This horse doesn't start rolling till he gets his head in front and all of a sudden he lengthens stride and is long gone.

PS- I touted him here before he ever ran.:ThmbUp:

lamboguy
01-16-2010, 05:03 PM
Old Chucky blew them away again! This horse doesn't start rolling till he gets his head in front and all of a sudden he lengthens stride and is long gone.

PS- I touted him here before he ever ran.:ThmbUp:seewald has done an amazingly good job with this horse, i have been following him since september, he has improved every step of the way. seewald also made a great move going to tampa instead of gulfstream. he gave away the money for the nice tampa surface that the horse is getting alot out of. this horse will be mighty tough going forward as proved today. at this stage i got to make him a better horse than wildcat frankie.

toussaud
01-16-2010, 05:14 PM
any video? hrtv isn't showing it and racereplays doesn't carry tampa bay