Most important factor handicapping maidens?

[redeye007]

What would be the most important factor or factors to consider when looking at the records of horses in a maiden claiming or maiden special weight race?

[illinoisbred]

What would be the most important factor or factors to consider when looking at the records of horses in a maiden claiming or maiden special weight race?
Referencing just personal observations,biases,and years of playing, the "record" of horses in maiden claimers is part of the problem with maiden claimers. These races tend to be filled to a large extent with horses of no talent/ability. If you were to look at PPs of maiden claimers from last spring it quickly becomes apparent-many from that time are still maidens! Like everyone else, I prefer MS dropdowns that have prompted the pace, however payoffs have gotten smaller and smaller through the years. If you make your own pace/speed figures you can uncover " hidden" good bets such as a horse like Rico's Posse who ran yesterday at Haw. On Oct.23rd she exited a MS that had a par pace figure which she couldn't contend and gradually faded away. Reentered on Nov. 15th in a MC, she caught a field weak on early speed/pace, she pressed for the 1st call and gained the lead by the 2nd, leading to an easy win. I personally have a low opinion of horses that populate MCs-I don't think it takes much to beat them, most seem content on being followers. As far as MSs go, again I don't like to see to many races. Years ago, there was a study done on MSs[don't remember by who or where] which showed that horses with talent/abilty to a very high % graduate by their 3rd/4th start. I know a lot of people here think Len Ragozin is a nut,but in his book he said if he had to confine his betting to 1 type of play it would be 3rd starters who ran just a little better in their 2nd start over their 1st. I use this "explosive " angle with my figures,considering any horse within 6-8 lengths of the faster ones in the race-many times 10-12 length forward moves come. Anyways, thats my 2 cents worth on your topic.

[TurfRuler]

In all maiden races, prefer the ones that have run in a race over first time starters. The main factor we have followed in maiden claimer's is the drop from a straight maiden race. It would be wise to now look closely at the maiden claimer's that are entered in straight maiden's....this year has proved the rule has been reversed, especially with trainer's that have confidence in their maiden claimer's they enter in straight maidens.

[Robert Goren]

I have caught many decently priced winners in maiden claimers by betting a firster with decent works if none of the other starters have shown any ability.

[TJDave]

I have caught many decently priced winners in maiden claimers by betting a firster with decent works if none of the other starters have shown any ability.

Don't doubt that some win but:

This defies all logic. Why else would a trainer enter untested talent in a claiming race...unless they were pigs?

[MONEY]

Don't doubt that some win but:

This defies all logic. Why else would a trainer enter untested talent in a claiming race...unless they were pigs?
By Steve Haskin (/horse-racing/articles/author/steve-haskin)
Updated: Wednesday, August 15, 2007 6:50 PM
Posted: Tuesday, July 3, 2007 7:56 AM

June 19, 2003 was a warm, humid day in Stockton, California, with a brisk 20 mile-an-hour-wind. Those that attended the races at the San Joaquin Fair were there just for fun and certainly were not looking for any future superstars. The fourth race on the card, a $12,500 maiden claiming race for 2-year-olds, had no particular meaning, and you can bet no one paid any attention whatsoever to the fourth-place finisher – a 35-1 shot named Lava Man, who was racing for his owner, breeder, and trainer Lonnie Arterburn, along with several partners.


Yeah. That Lava Man, What a PIG!!

money

[Show Me the Wire]

Don't doubt that some win but:

This defies all logic. Why else would a trainer enter untested talent in a claiming race...unless they were pigs?

To save a condition. For example win at MCL 50k or less to qualify for a starter allowance in So.Cal. Two quick wins for purses totaling approximately 40K, instead of four or five attempts to win a 38K purse.

[OTM Al]

Don't doubt that some win but:

This defies all logic. Why else would a trainer enter untested talent in a claiming race...unless they were pigs?

This is the basic idea. Those running in a maiden claimer who have already badly lost maiden claimers have already proved they stink. Unraced horse at least hasn't proved that yet. If you can find anything else about the the animal that looks halfway decent such as works or trainer stat or my fav, the wet Tomlinson #, then it may well be worth a shot.

This isn't so true in regular maiden races where those who have raced before generally have the advantage. Always check if you are going to bet on a firster too if the horse is running on dirt but has the profile for a turfer. Many trainers like to get that first race in as a dirt sprint and don't really care if they win or not. These I toss regularly.

[misscashalot]

generally you're right...but...
in the late 1970's Jose Martin (Pancho's son) entered firster Lakeville Miss
in a 2 yr old fillie Mdn Clmer. She won and after a successful
freshman year was voted 2 yr old fillie of the year. I didn't bet her,
but I was there and saw her win that race.

She wasn't claimed but imagine if she was.

Randolph Weinsier, who campaigned homebred champion 2-year-old filly Lakeville Miss, died Feb. 2, 2006 at age 93. He resided in the Miami community of Aventura.The late 1970s were the glory days for Weinsier, who campaigned his first horse in the early 1950s. Weinsier not only raced grade I winner Lakeville Miss, but another homebred grade I winner in Golferette, and his wife campaigned grade I winner Shawi.

Lakeville Miss proved an easy choice for champion 2-year-old filly of 1977 after winning the Frizette (gr. I), Matron (gr. I), Selima (gr. I), and Astarita (gr. III) Stakes. Trained by Jose Martin, Lakeville Miss continued to shine as a 3-year-old, taking the Coaching Club American Oaks (gr. I) at Belmont Park and running second in two New York grade I stakes.

[WinterTriangle]

Are we talking older maidens or young ones?

The most important thing is to be selective in the races you play.

I think the worst angles for getting value with maidens is only using the dropping in class angle and the trainer % angle. Because they are chalk fests. The whole point to me of FINDING a good maiden race, given that maiden races are iffy, is to find decent value. If I can't do that, then I pass. Most people will not do their homework with maidens, so they use these two angles and get........ chalk. (I call it the Wesley Ward angle.)

So, these are not maiden races I will play.

My feeling about maidens, if you want to specialize, is to follow them closely.
For firsters, you have little data. Physical handicapping is suggested. Make notes on what equipment they are using, and every detail about the race including how they ran, in your own words. This will come in handy for their 2nd and 3rd race. What sires and mares have good results for debuts. I look at how the other foals have done in their races, and sharp works. I will also take a look at earnings of mare and sire. If I'm at the paddock, I look in their eyes, many of them look "scared". First timer on the rail in a large field can be intimidating for them. If your horse doesn't look good in the paddock, you can wait until they race again, and if you took great notes on the equipment, etc. you'll know what to do next time out! You'll know exactly what changes were made. Patience!

If not firsters, I throw out first race as school. 2nd time starters who ran 3rd or 4th or even 5th if they show sharp workouts and right breeding, and/or if they were the favorite last out and didn't win esp. if due to having to overcome some obstacle and/or I liked the way they ran. (includes stone-cold last if I see a huge effort on the turn or in the stretch that suggests another gear). Do they look better in paddock this time? Filled out, etc.? And I like to see them come back quickly.

Re-wagering maidens who won first have terrible odds. You might win but there's no $$ in it.


I love 3rd-er or 4th-er or 5th-er, doing something different. Different surface or distance, positive equipment change or jockey change that lets me know the trainer may have "figured the horse out" after several races...and preferably from a less well-known barn. (this is my best angle, and brings in longshots) I will bet them stretching out if pedigree shows stamina but not if their fractions are too fast at the 1st and 2nd call. I like 'em to be going up in class here. My idea is that any decent horse who is young and developing is likely to be "going somewhere", eventually, with the right trainer---not down the class ladder. Otherwise, I pass and WAIT until I see the trainer has figured something out.

[bisket]

a good angle for first time starters in maiden sprints is a horse that breaks well. if you see a gate work at 12 seconds or better per furlong breezing thats a good gate work. if its below 12 seconds its excellant. if its a handily gate work it needs to be better than 12 sec furs. 12 sec furs may seem nothing special for a work, but take into consideration that when times are posted for works. the horse begins the work already at a gallop; as apposed to a gate work thats began standing still. ainsley's suggestion is to subtract 1 second from a gate work when comparing it to a regular breeze. so if you see a 47 second gate work its = to a 46 second breeze. usually in maiden races if a horse breaks well and gets a little jump on the others thats all she wrote for that race. maidens aren't polished runners, and just usually can't make up that head start.

[lamboguy]

Don't doubt that some win but:

This defies all logic. Why else would a trainer enter untested talent in a claiming race...unless they were pigs?
in today's world you have a lot of maidens that run short for a tag to get eligible for starter. they lose for a tag and then they step up to msw and win. of course you really must know what you are doing to get the job done but it is happening alot lately.

[bisket]

lambo's wildcat is a good example of that angle. the good break and getting a head start.

[matthewsiv]

Work outs.

Trainer/Jockey relationship and percentage.

Tote Board.

[fmolf]

Very few trainers will claim an unraced horse.That being said if you clip the pp's of maiden winners and watch the entries you will see which trainers are good with the starter alw. maneuver.Patterns will emerge.A lot of times with firsters it helps to look for bet downs.Especially if from a small barn,with a mediocre jockey aboard.The obvious trainers and top jocks always seem to be overbet in maiden and mcl races.

[exiles]

QUOTE in today's world you have a lot of maidens that run short for a tag to get eligible for starter. they lose for a tag and then they step up to msw and win.


Most starter allowance conditions for young horses are (for horses who have broken their maiden for a claiming price or less IE 40000 or less so i don't think a horse who breaks his or her maiden in MSW company would be eligible for a starter allowance, that move you see a lot w/ older claimers where they drop the horse in price to make it eligible for a starters allowance.

[wisconsin]

One thing to consider is the time of year. The maiden claiming races in the fall are chock full of screwed up horses, especially the 4 year olds. You need to find a horse that showed anything, or was bet, or was well-intended. If this type of horse does not exist, forget about the race and move on.

[Jackal]

I find most of my first out winners hanging around the receiving barn. The key is finding out which day the gate crew is schooling.

Most racing stewards will give you a hot walkers license. I do actually walk horses when I am there. My Dr says I should walk daily - So I make my Dr happy and find a few longshot winners.

Remember when watching schooling races - everyone will work with the slowest horse. Time means very little. You are looking for horses that won't let the other horses pass.

[Overlay]

First-timers: Odds
Previous starters: Speed

Other factors enter in, but those two are the most important for me as far as pure winning chances. (As always, the final decision comes down to wagering value.)

[Bill Cullen]

I once asked an old handicapper what was the best way to handle maidens.

He said, "Be gentle."

[BIG49010]

generally you're right...but...
in the late 1970's Jose Martin (Pancho's son) entered firster Lakeville Miss
in a 2 yr old fillie Mdn Clmer. She won and after a successful
freshman year was voted 2 yr old fillie of the year. I didn't bet her,
but I was there and saw her win that race.

She wasn't claimed but imagine if she was.

Randolph Weinsier, who campaigned homebred champion 2-year-old filly Lakeville Miss, died Feb. 2, 2006 at age 93. He resided in the Miami community of Aventura.The late 1970s were the glory days for Weinsier, who campaigned his first horse in the early 1950s. Weinsier not only raced grade I winner Lakeville Miss, but another homebred grade I winner in Golferette, and his wife campaigned grade I winner Shawi.

Lakeville Miss proved an easy choice for champion 2-year-old filly of 1977 after winning the Frizette (gr. I), Matron (gr. I), Selima (gr. I), and Astarita (gr. III) Stakes. Trained by Jose Martin, Lakeville Miss continued to shine as a 3-year-old, taking the Coaching Club American Oaks (gr. I) at Belmont Park and running second in two New York grade I stakes.

They did the same thing with Breeder Cup Champ 2 yr filly She Be Wild.

[Fingal]

Maiden races are not all the same. In straight Maiden I give more credence to those with early speed ( especially turn time ) over 1st timers. Even if the 2nd or 3rd time starter showing early speed spit the bit in the stretch, but have a decent 5f work since last raced & especially if they are making a blinker on / off change or the ultimate change of gelding.

Maiden Clm- is it a 40-50 or is it the lowest level ? Are there are a bunch of confirmed losers facing a decent looking firster ? Then the 1st timer has a shot.

Then the board. Who's taking money ? Who's not ? Who should be but isn't ? Who's odds looks too good ? How did they open ? What's the trainer reputation with firsters ? Second or third timers ?

Take the time to do post mortems & find patterns that aren't published. Everybody sees the percentages with certain trainer moves that are put in the DRF, but when everybody knows everything, it's useless.

[CincyHorseplayer]

The Quinn prototypes are good;MSW to MCL droppers,2nd starters,and claiming level bracket droppers(different for every circuit).

If nothing falls under these I like the simple prototype of a lightly raced young horse that's improving.And as someone else said,doing something they haven't done before.Or even the reductionist philosophy "this horse has not failed on a fast track,dirt sprint" type of reasoning.

If those fail the firsters come into play for all the reasons mentioned.

After that it becomes secondary types of plays for me.Usually situational or cyclical instances.A horse that has a favorable probable pace set-up.Big pace figure horse.Fits current track profile/bias.As mentioned physical appearance handicapping(has provided me with big longshots).Etc etc.Personally I love route to sprint horses in maidens.This puts a lot of finish in horses that have failed to get there going shorter.

Beyond that I will usually pass if one of these factors doesn't overwhelm me into wanting to make a bet.

[Bluesthestandard]

Workouts---Workouts--Workouts

Credit to clocker Andy Harrington


CERIN FIRST TIME STARTER WINNING BY DAYLIGHT ON 1/4/08 @ $ 21.00!

I hit this nice one off his workout report from Jan 08' I have had alot more of these since as well.

BRIECAT 12/14/07 HOL 5 :59.3H M FT
Caught the eye with Garcia up, kept under some restraint while 1 length up on barnmate Van Brit (59.3) throughout in 35.1, 59.3. Newcomer can run some.-----------Grade: B
BRIECAT 12/03/07 HOL 5 1:00.4HG M FT
Nice rush around the turn in this easy breeze from the gate going 35.4, 47.2 eased out in 100.2. Nice mover.-----------Grade: B