what do you look for in your derby horse

[bisket]

the main thing i look for is stamina. what are the things that you see in the preps that helps you decide on a horse. i think the main thing i like to see is a horse relax during the early stages of a race. to win at 1 1/4 mile a horse needs to relax to give it something left for the long stretch at churchill.

[Rialto]

My main prospects last year were the pamplemousse.. for pure speed... piooneerof the nile for stamina and genetics... and I want revenge for his skill and determination with tactics... I liked summer bird too as a long shot I had him at 100/1 in a derby future... just a month off of hitting that one :)

Those are going to be the horses that im comparing this years crop to...

[lamboguy]

i look for horses that have good bottoms underneath them, and horses that don't miss any time training, meaning working rountine intervals throughout the campagn. so far WILDCAT FRANKIE fits that build, and he is the very best i have seen so far. the only problem one might have picking him is he has had only one race and the competiton behind him was not that stellar. if he goes on to face some decent horses and wins you could really get excited about his chances should he stay healthy.

[Rialto]

12/12/09 1st Crc P Lopez 6 5 1/2 f D MSW 0 2 M Wildcat Frankie 1:04.90

http://horseracingnation.com/race/Crc_20091212_Race_6_MSW



Oh yea... now that I actually watch that horse round into the stretch... he looks good... real good.... reminds me of the pamplemousse with that big wide chest and open front legs... can't wait to see him grow a little!

[lamboguy]

12/12/09 1st Crc P Lopez 6 5 1/2 f D MSW 0 2 M Wildcat Frankie 1:04.90

http://horseracingnation.com/race/Crc_20091212_Race_6_MSW



Oh yea... now that I actually watch that horse round into the stretch... he looks good... real good.... reminds me of the pamplemousse with that big wide chest and open front legs... can't wait to see him grow a little!believe me on this one, we haven't had one like this guy in 25 years and that includes some that have turned out great like formal gold and skip away.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I look for all races, each 2f run close to even times by the individual horse. Period.

[abe]

I like stamina on the bottom, a win at 2y old, at least three preps in Spring, win or on the board on dirt, steady improvement.

[Bochall]

I look for all races, each 2f run close to even times by the individual horse. Period.

Good theory...even 1/4s show that more distance is within their grasp.

[Rialto]

believe me on this one, we haven't had one like this guy in 25 years and that includes some that have turned out great like formal gold and skip away.


I still can't get over how well he breaks from the gate!!!!!! First time?!?!?!?!?


He's outta that gate like a bullet.... amazing.... and he hugs the rail around intot the stretch like a true champion.... I'm very excited for this colt!!!

[Rialto]

2yo Nextdoorneighbor (FL) Colt 2 58.40 h 1/112


Thats about as fast as you could ever hope to gt a 2yo going for 5 furls..

[bisket]

i think experience is a big issue for the derby. now if the horse has lots of natural speed and figures to be among the leaders i'll overlook experience. browny comes to mind in this respect. any horse that figures to be in mid-pack after 4-6 furs has to have experience to win. this was the main reason i didn't think curlin would win. this also the main reason i thought street sense would win. i like to see a horse who figures to be in mid pack bothered in some sort of fashion, and continue to race forwardly afterwards in one of their preps. this is big with me because you can almost garauntee its gonna happen during the derby. any horse that shows timidness is a throwout for me if they don't have early speed. of course any horse with early speed needs to prove to me they are a good probability to not fold the last 1/4.

[nijinski]

A horse that has not one a juvey breeders cup .

[bisket]

as far as frankie is concerned the even fractions throughout the race says to me he's worth watching. easily done even fractions at that. the horse can most likely get a mile just from watching that race. he's in my drf and equibase stable. :ThmbUp: thanks lambo

[WinterTriangle]

wildcat frankie won a 5.5F race.

I guess I'm looking at horses who are already ITM at more classic distances for my TC possibilities.

[bisket]

i know the distance was short, but its the way he ran that makes the difference. i don't know if he's derby material just yet, but he does have the look of a horse that can get a route. he's worthwhile watching. brown, quality road, and i want revenge were only maiden winners this time in their careers also. i'll say that most of the 2 year olds we just watched win all these graded races. won't be in the derby picture.

[WinterTriangle]

as far as frankie is concerned the even fractions throughout the race says to me he's worth watching.

But for the KY Derby????

I just asked my friend who is expert pedigree guy, he confirmed my early suspicion. "This horse appears to be a sprinter / miler type. Wildcat Heir has a lot of firsters. Bred to win early. "

How this sets him up for classic distance TC races is completely uknown at this point, but based on his pedigree, show me where he's got the stamina and breeding for long races?

[lamboguy]

But for the KY Derby????

I just asked my friend who is expert pedigree guy, he confirmed my early suspicion. "This horse appears to be a sprinter / miler type. Wildcat Heir has a lot of firsters. Bred to win early. "

How this sets him up for classic distance TC races is completely uknown at this point, but based on his pedigree, show me where he's got the stamina and breeding for long races?when the horse runs around the track he doesn't know what his dosage figures are, or that his pedigree suggest's that he can't make the distance. they told me the same thing with funnycide and i told people that he loved to train, he wind up in the derby and winning it to boot. i am not saying that it wouldn't be great to have a distance pedigree that is of blue chip quality. they said the same thing about mr. prospector, he produced lots of classic winners.

[bisket]

look at musket man last year he had a sprint pedigree. what you want to see from horse to make him a possibility to get a route is see him relax and reel of 12 second furlongs. looking at wildcats chart he broke from the gate very alertly and laid down a 22 second first 1/4. after that fraction he got into an excellant and i mean excellant rythm, and set 12 second fractions easily for the remainder of the race. for him to get a route they'll have to get him to relax a little more out of the gate, and then its just a matter of how far the horse can go. he's already got a nice rythmic stride :ThmbUp: . incidentally thats rachel's motis operendi. break from the gate and throw down a 46-47 1/2 mile and then reel off 12's. now i'm not saying wildcat frank is of rachel type quality; i'm just trying to give an example that many posters are familiar with.

[abe]

Some of these are still good. http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=999980222054 :cool:

[WinterTriangle]

Bisket and Lambo

Even disregarding the pedigree angle, I guess it all depends on how "early" one begins to look for Derby horses. I start later.

Because there's always a long list of precocious talented wins at 5.5F and 6F ...what % of them make it to even one TC race?

I'm just saying I can't make such a prediction off a 5.5F for Wildcat at this time. (I remember Cribnote. And Notonthesamepage. ThisonesforPhil, Theregoesjojo, etc.)

look at musket man last year he had a sprint pedigree.

I wasn't looking at him for the Derby until after he ran 7F, then ran 3rd at 1 1/16, then won at 1 1/16. He was a potential TC horse for me at that point. Then he won again at 1 1/8. I was sold. By then, it was obvious he had outrun his sprinters pedigree. :)


.... and then its just a matter of how far the horse can go

You say "just". Getting the distance is the crux of the biscuit for a classic distance race.

[lamboguy]

i guess everyone figures things out their own way. i am no big sucess picking them myself. in the last 30 years i might have only had 5 picks that actually won, and they weren't big prices. i must have had about 20 horses that were in the money though. but i do know that they don't pay for being close. maybe my poor results were due to not evaluating pedegrees and distance limitations. i will have to research that more thoroughly for the future.

[Rialto]

I actually have to spend sometime before I can add anything.. but this is great info and all of you guys are making great points for your arguements...

This forum is definitely a bit headier than the sports and poker forums Ive been a mamber of... cheers!

[bisket]

Bisket and Lambo

Even disregarding the pedigree angle, I guess it all depends on how "early" one begins to look for Derby horses. I start later.

Because there's always a long list of precocious talented wins at 5.5F and 6F ...what % of them make it to even one TC race?

I'm just saying I can't make such a prediction off a 5.5F for Wildcat at this time. (I remember Cribnote. And Notonthesamepage. ThisonesforPhil, Theregoesjojo, etc.)



I wasn't looking at him for the Derby until after he ran 7F, then ran 3rd at 1 1/16, then won at 1 1/16. He was a potential TC horse for me at that point. Then he won again at 1 1/8. I was sold. By then, it was obvious he had outrun his sprinters pedigree. :)




You say "just". Getting the distance is the crux of the biscuit for a classic distance race.
i'm not saying this is a derby horse. from that race i think the horse is definately stakes quality at a mile. now when and if the horse runs at that distance i'll judge if he can go further. he's just a nice colt in my book right now, and i'd say stakes quality. he's worth paying attention to.

[toussaud]

what do I look for in a derby horse?

first anything not trained by todd pletcher. stats are stats and until he gets his up he's an autotoss.

There are more than one way to skin a cat but more than anything, I look for a trainer who is training a horse like he wants it to, and thinks it can, peek on the first saturday in may.

A trainer running in 3 grade 1's before janurary is not a trainer who is traiing a horse like he wants it to peak in the first saturday in may. that is a trainer (At least now aadays) who is getting while the gettin is good.

Horses who are by win early sires (storm cat, mr greeley, unbridled song, etc) are autotosses.

last year I keyed on 2 horses, Quality Road and Imperial Council. Both had the pedigree (so I thought), both showed enough talent to be useful tc type horses and both seemed like they had trainers who put the wraps on them in the winter and set the gages early for a road to the roses.

[Seabiscuit@AR]

I look for a horse trained by Baffert. Big time races you need big time trainers. Baffert knows how to train a derby winner. Not sure about the rest

[sandpit]

Some of these are still good. http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=999980222054 :cool:

they do a good job of analyzing things and getting in depth, but their 2008 selections were way off...they said Big Brown could hit the board, but not win, and the second and third place finishers, Eight Belles and Denis of Cork, basically had no shot. Their top four were: Colonel John, very nice horse but lacking in the trainer department; Cowboy Cal, a turf horse; and a couple of Zayat horses who looked like also-rans months before the Derby.

[bisket]

toussad i liked imperial council last year as well. i was very confused by his races in new york last spring. i thought he was much better than he showed in those races. he's back in training in florida. you'll probably see him this winter at gulfstream. he's in my stable and got an email he worked last week.

[WinterTriangle]

A trainer running in 3 grade 1's before janurary is not a trainer who is traiing a horse like he wants it to peak in the first saturday in may. that is a trainer (At least now aadays) who is getting while the gettin is good.

Lucky has run 4 G1's and a G2 already. and he's only 2, a little baby. We are asking him to maintain that form til May, and also maintain that form while running on a new surface for him, dirt.

His pro's are Baffert and terrific pedigree.

I hope they don't turn him into toast.

[bisket]

which is what happened to pioneer of the nile last year. winter lucky hasn't really extended himself in these races. which is a positve.