freeneasy
06-13-2003, 11:24 PM
in the 6th, # 6 Chelseas Gold trained by Lenord Duncan aint gonna catch your eye so much but shes has a little pattern that makes sense and says they might be betting her tonite. first all 11 works are on the 6 day mark. he gives her 5 progressive series of works at 5 progressively increases in distances with the last work of each work in that series progressively being better then the last and the last being the best of that series of works.
first he starts her off with two 3f works,
after this he lengthens her out to three works at 4f with each work being progressively better then the last and the last being the best of that series of works, 49.2, 49.0, and 48.1.
Duncan begins her next serious of works stretching her work distance out from 4fs to 5fs giving her three progressively faster works starting with the first in 1:02:2 the second in 1:02 and the third in 1:01:2. each work being progressively faster to the last work as in the 4f works.
6 days later Duncan starts a series of two works at 6fs each, the one in1:16:2 and the next 6 days later at 1:14:4 hg. 1 3/5 seconds faster
and the last, 6 days later/7 days ago, was at 7fs in 1:29.
tonites distance is 7fs, the pattern is 2 works at 3fs, 3 works at 4fs, 3 works at 5fs, 2 at 6 and 1 at 7fs. 3,4,5,6,7, no back peddeling, just continuious forward motion.
Iam sure in each of the 6f works she galloped out 7fs, tonites distance,
and that 6f work in 1:16:2 divided by 12 16th of a mile = 6.33 seconds per each 16th mi. and that multiplied by 14 16ths of a mi./7fs, (6.33 X 14) = 89.13/100 which equals a 7f gallop of 1:29:1/10. which eqals exactley the time of her last work at 7fs in 1;29 flat.
that 6f work at 1:14: 4 hg translates out to a 7f work in 87.30 or 1:27:3/10
so iam looking at Duncan working his horse with the last three works being done at 7fs in times of 1:29:1/10, 1;27:3/10 and in 1:29 flat, and probaby looking for an all out improvment tonite.
there aint no horses dropping in out of straight maiden affairs, with 2 dropping in from higher md. claimers and it aint no sprighty looking field and i think hes got a real nice shot at it tonite.
Also Duncan has a low win% with FTS at 9% but hes got a positive ROI of $2.41. I gotta say he doesnt want any games tonite with GF Almeida up at 17% win avg.
next go to the 8th with #1 Indian Trick with speed rider Martin Perdoza up, lots of fastly works last at 3fs in 34:1 hg. Mike Goodin 1st st. 20%, $7.08 ROI, md. clm. 7% $2.36 ROI. cheap field, rails at 17%
maybe a little win, place and show parlay here
6 in the 6th to the 1 in the 8th
first he starts her off with two 3f works,
after this he lengthens her out to three works at 4f with each work being progressively better then the last and the last being the best of that series of works, 49.2, 49.0, and 48.1.
Duncan begins her next serious of works stretching her work distance out from 4fs to 5fs giving her three progressively faster works starting with the first in 1:02:2 the second in 1:02 and the third in 1:01:2. each work being progressively faster to the last work as in the 4f works.
6 days later Duncan starts a series of two works at 6fs each, the one in1:16:2 and the next 6 days later at 1:14:4 hg. 1 3/5 seconds faster
and the last, 6 days later/7 days ago, was at 7fs in 1:29.
tonites distance is 7fs, the pattern is 2 works at 3fs, 3 works at 4fs, 3 works at 5fs, 2 at 6 and 1 at 7fs. 3,4,5,6,7, no back peddeling, just continuious forward motion.
Iam sure in each of the 6f works she galloped out 7fs, tonites distance,
and that 6f work in 1:16:2 divided by 12 16th of a mile = 6.33 seconds per each 16th mi. and that multiplied by 14 16ths of a mi./7fs, (6.33 X 14) = 89.13/100 which equals a 7f gallop of 1:29:1/10. which eqals exactley the time of her last work at 7fs in 1;29 flat.
that 6f work at 1:14: 4 hg translates out to a 7f work in 87.30 or 1:27:3/10
so iam looking at Duncan working his horse with the last three works being done at 7fs in times of 1:29:1/10, 1;27:3/10 and in 1:29 flat, and probaby looking for an all out improvment tonite.
there aint no horses dropping in out of straight maiden affairs, with 2 dropping in from higher md. claimers and it aint no sprighty looking field and i think hes got a real nice shot at it tonite.
Also Duncan has a low win% with FTS at 9% but hes got a positive ROI of $2.41. I gotta say he doesnt want any games tonite with GF Almeida up at 17% win avg.
next go to the 8th with #1 Indian Trick with speed rider Martin Perdoza up, lots of fastly works last at 3fs in 34:1 hg. Mike Goodin 1st st. 20%, $7.08 ROI, md. clm. 7% $2.36 ROI. cheap field, rails at 17%
maybe a little win, place and show parlay here
6 in the 6th to the 1 in the 8th