Mid day bias changes

[Valuist]

I've noticed this at Hawthorne a number of times, including today and last Sunday. The rail and speed were very strong for the first 5 races, then out of nowhere, you want to be wide and off the pace. The inside becomes death. Not quite as pronounced last Sunday, when I rated it neutral for the first half then outside after the 5th. The bitter cold makes a track like Haw susceptible to biases often. They often will put extra sand down so the track won't freeze. But it always seems to be the same pattern. I never seem to see dead rail early, great rail for the final races.

[DarrenClarke]

I play Hawthorne regularly and what you said is absolutely true. Seems to happen alot in Dec.

[illinoisbred]

I see yesterday a little differently than you.Lissa's Star, winner of the 5th, assuming Brueggemann had him ready, could have won from anywhere. Ferrer seemed to have difficulty keeping him from bearing out. The wide trip turned a probable 4 length romp into a mere 1/2 length win. I have the 7th race as pretty much a field of seriously de-accelerating rats. Tejano Taylor, off his last, at least showed some finishing ability- hard to have much confidence in him though. I liked and did bet Sorry Baby to win the 8th. The inside opened up-ran well but missed by a 1 1/2 lengths. That was a pretty competitive bunch-just strange the 8 never showed up early. In the 9th, I thought Cashy Secrets was the best bet on the entire card as long as speed wasn't hindered. If the track was favoring off the pace runners then,she should have been collared and beaten. Just my 2 cents. In any case the track was sure fast yesterday. It will be interesting to see if it changes with some thawing today and more tommorrow.

[Valuist]

I agree on Lissa's Star, who had by far the biggest back figures. The only question was is he ready, and he was. If the rail or 2 path is good late, Shore Breeze Icon should've walloped the 7th race field. Despite the wide draw, he got over pretty good and didn't lose much ground on either turn, a hole opened in the stretch and I thought he'd be a sure winner. The way the track was early, Tejano Taylor could never have won. He typifies the wide, deep closing type. In the 8th, I thought Heart Thief had a perfect trip in her last, the beneficiary of 2 horses battling very hard. And like you said, Tessie's Tillbury (who appeared to have the best speed) didn't break well, one would've thought Heart Thief would've been up against it. But she stayed wide and ran down everybody. In the 9th, Cashy Secrets was right on the lead but even she was off the rail and the route to sprint turnback Katie Murphy closed for 2nd.

I've seen days, especially during the early spring meet, when the rail is good all day. But in the fall, if the rail isn't excellent early, there's no chance it will be late.

[illinoisbred]

I'm hoping Hawthorne doesn't resort to their trick of the 90's and dump tons of sand on the track. It was pretty ugly racing with posts 8-12 taking most win,place, and show spots.

[Valuist]

I'm hoping Hawthorne doesn't resort to their trick of the 90's and dump tons of sand on the track. It was pretty ugly racing with posts 8-12 taking most win,place, and show spots.

I'm not as opposed to it. As long as I can identify the bias, I'm happy. There aren't that many tracks anymore that are really biased. Kee, SoCal and TP are now fake dirt; I used to love AP's 3 wide/up close trip to win that lasted from 2004-2006. Belmont's fall meet often had a dead rail. I know the inner dirt often has a good rail (although not always speed) but I don't play the inner dirt often. Hawhtorne is one of the few tracks that gets strong biases.

[illinoisbred]

I'm not as opposed to it. As long as I can identify the bias, I'm happy. There aren't that many tracks anymore that are really biased. Kee, SoCal and TP are now fake dirt; I used to love AP's 3 wide/up close trip to win that lasted from 2004-2006. Belmont's fall meet often had a dead rail. I know the inner dirt often has a good rail (although not always speed) but I don't play the inner dirt often. Hawhtorne is one of the few tracks that gets strong biases.
I've often wondered what could explain these December biases. Do you think its because the rail path is shaded by the rail it remains frozen longer and gradually thaws or breaks down with racing and tractor track maintenance?

[lamboguy]

is hawthorne close to a body of water? i know that @mountaineer the same thing happens on a daily basis, and they are right next to a river

[illinoisbred]

is hawthorne close to a body of water? i know that @mountaineer the same thing happens on a daily basis, and they are right next to a river
Lake Michigan is approx. 4 miles away. Wind is always the big natural element at Hawthorne.

[lamboguy]

Lake Michigan is approx. 4 miles away. Wind is always the big natural element at Hawthorne.these are some of the edges that people get that go to the track vs. keyboard players like myself.

[Valuist]

Doesn't look like any mid-day change today. The rail has been bad all day and wide is the place to be.

[illinoisbred]

The track seems to be as fast yesterday. Almost thought we were back at

Arlington after the stretch run in the 6th-what a roughly run race that was.