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View Full Version : Do freezing temps hamper front runners?


RainMan
12-11-2009, 01:12 PM
I mainly follow the winter tracks and have noticed that cheap speed seems to back up more when the chill factor drops. Of course headwinds and frozen surfaces can create speed biases at places like Aqu, but as a general rule it seems like the deep closers have an advantage at certain distances when the temps are below freezing. I have a theory that horses are affected by the cold just as humans are. For example, a 3 mile jog in 25 degree weather does not burn the throat and lungs like running a few sprints at full speed.

46zilzal
12-11-2009, 01:16 PM
Quite the opposite happens almost universally on dirt tracks. You just have to discriminate what is speed that will not last past the 2nd call to those than will. Early in the cold is one of the best angles around.

cj
12-11-2009, 02:40 PM
Cold doesn't hurt, but wind does.

macdiarmida
12-11-2009, 05:44 PM
Add in the shortened times from the post parade to the gate where the ones who who want to (!)/need to can't get warmed up well enough.

ranchwest
12-11-2009, 09:11 PM
Add in the shortened times from the post parade to the gate where the ones who who want to (!)/need to can't get warmed up well enough.

I'd like to better understand what you are saying. How are the shortened post parades affecting speed?

Valuist
12-11-2009, 10:41 PM
Some tracks add sand and/or chemicals so the track doesn't freeze. I know at Hawthorne it seems like whatever maintenance they do works for several races but midway thru the card the rail seems dead again.

One myth was the old Turfway was ALWAYS speed. Actually old TP was usually biased; many times it was speed but there were many, many days where the optimal spot was about 5 wide coming from off the pace.

Jackal
12-12-2009, 02:21 AM
I have noticed that the track almost always changes after maintenance runs the trackmaster between races. A field cultivator seldom makes a huge difference.

lamboguy
12-12-2009, 06:04 AM
Cold doesn't hurt, but wind does.does it ever!

there are guys out there that chart the days with the wind and keep good notes and win lots of money on next out horses. wind can either hurt or help the numbers

melman
12-12-2009, 07:45 AM
Lambo and cj---I very much agree with both of you. I would expand on that a bit more however. It also depends on if it's a headwind or a tailwind. Lambo during the upcoming Meadowlands harness meet when they have cold nights and a 15-20 MPH or higher wind pay close attention. You can get lots of hard to find winners coming out of such nights.

lamboguy
12-12-2009, 08:38 AM
Lambo and cj---I very much agree with both of you. I would expand on that a bit more however. It also depends on if it's a headwind or a tailwind. Lambo during the upcoming Meadowlands harness meet when they have cold nights and a 15-20 MPH or higher wind pay close attention. You can get lots of hard to find winners coming out of such nights.it happens to matter alot more in harness because horses can get leads and pocket trips and trips from way in the back of the field. i knew a good harness guy like yourself understands that. as for me i am just a dope in the harness trying to learn as much as i can for a guy that is very stubborn. thanks to you and ray, i am loving the harness game and love to see your picks so i can learn more about it. both you guys are super and i want to wish you and your families a very happy holiday season.

fmolf
12-12-2009, 09:19 AM
I have done well betting e/p and p horses running into the aqueduct headwind in the stretch.The speed horses break the wind and get the worst of it those close enough to the pace benefit from the drafting they have done behind the leaders.closers still have to fight the headwind because they are generally further behind without cover.

gm10
12-12-2009, 09:57 AM
I mainly follow the winter tracks and have noticed that cheap speed seems to back up more when the chill factor drops. Of course headwinds and frozen surfaces can create speed biases at places like Aqu, but as a general rule it seems like the deep closers have an advantage at certain distances when the temps are below freezing. I have a theory that horses are affected by the cold just as humans are. For example, a 3 mile jog in 25 degree weather does not burn the throat and lungs like running a few sprints at full speed.

I can't comment on your point, but it's an interesting theory, for sure.

From what I've seen (or think I've seen), the cold seems to help to front runners on the synthetic surfaces. They do better at Turfway, Woodbine when those tracks are experiencing cold weather. I think the temperature has an effect on the surface. There seems to be more kickback, and the surface looks less bouncy (before anyone starts a rant agst synthetics ... I actually don't mind this, it's a predictable bias).

rwwupl
12-12-2009, 10:01 AM
Cold doesn't hurt, but wind does.


I agree. Wind in the face of speed, causes speed to quit. When the field makes the turn for home, the same wind is at the back of the rear runners.

I always watch the Flag to see how the wind is blowing, and adjust accordingly. :)

RainMan
12-12-2009, 10:37 AM
I figured that this topic would turn to track condition and wind instead of temperature - but I am seeking opinions on whether extremely cold temperatures physically affect front runners. For instance, is there a temp that is so cold that front runners just can't maintain there speed due to breathing problems. Also, my thought is that on a calm, dry and sunny 20 degree day when wind and track maintenance are not factors, claiming front runners may be able to carry their speed at shorter sprints but are a "bet against" at 7f and 1 mile.

melman
12-12-2009, 10:45 AM
Lambo--"It happens to matter a lot more in harness". >>>>>You BET it does. :lol: IMO on a very cold night with no wind the speed is still the huge factor it always is. I have been told by harness trainers that most horses have more problems with extreme HEAT than they do with extreme cold. I should add heat and the high humidity that often goes along with it.

jasperson
12-12-2009, 06:33 PM
I mainly follow the winter tracks and have noticed that cheap speed seems to back up more when the chill factor drops. Of course headwinds and frozen surfaces can create speed biases at places like Aqu, but as a general rule it seems like the deep closers have an advantage at certain distances when the temps are below freezing. I have a theory that horses are affected by the cold just as humans are. For example, a 3 mile jog in 25 degree weather does not burn the throat and lungs like running a few sprints at full speed.

Air density increases with a decrease in temperature,but I don't think it is enough to really effect a horse's performance. Also consider the length of the horse's nose before the air reaches his throat and it is a long ways to his lungs from his throat. I have ran in 10 deg temps and it didn't seem to effect me.
Also in the 30's they raced harness horses on the ice in Canada.
Jack

bobphilo
12-12-2009, 08:53 PM
Wind is a much more serious factor than low temperature in front running horses. When estimating the effect of a head-on wind on a horse, you have to remember to add the speed of the horse into the equation. Just as you have to add the velocities of both cars when looking at a head-on collision, a frontrunner going at 40 mph into a 30 MPH wind is actually facing the drag effect of a 70 MPH force. A frontrunner going at 40 MPH into a 20 MPH headwind is really facing 60 MPH of resistance.

Even when there is no wind the horse’s speed alone generates drag in proportion to its own speed. In addition the effects of wind are not linear but exponential. That means that a 20 mph headwind is generating much more than just twice the resistance of a 10 MPH wind. That also means that in most dirt races where the early fractions are swifter than the final splits; the frontrunners have to overcome more drag than closers. Horses have large bodies that generate a lot of drag and the adoption of the dangerous crouching jockey seat just to reduce the additional wind resistance of the rider as much as possible also tells you a lot about the importance of wind resistance.
Low temperatures, on the other hand, have less effect on a horse than on a human runner. They have a longer respiratory system in which to heat the air before it reaches the lunges from the nostrils and their muscles operate at an extremely high metabolic rate when running and generate considerably more heat than a human does, thus heating the air they breath more effectively and keeping the muscles themselves warmer.

Bob

Cratos
12-12-2009, 09:43 PM
Wind is a much more serious factor than low temperature in front running horses. When estimating the effect of a head-on wind on a horse, you have to remember to add the speed of the horse into the equation. Just as you have to add the velocities of both cars when looking at a head-on collision, a frontrunner going at 40 mph into a 30 MPH wind is actually facing the drag effect of a 70 MPH force. A frontrunner going at 40 MPH into a 20 MPH headwind is really facing 60 MPH of resistance.

Even when there is no wind the horse’s speed alone generates drag in proportion to its own speed. In addition the effects of wind are not linear but exponential. That means that a 20 mph headwind is generating much more than just twice the resistance of a 10 MPH wind. That also means that in most dirt races where the early fractions are swifter than the final splits; the frontrunners have to overcome more drag than closers. Horses have large bodies that generate a lot of drag and the adoption of the dangerous crouching jockey seat just to reduce the additional wind resistance of the rider as much as possible also tells you a lot about the importance of wind resistance.
Low temperatures, on the other hand, have less effect on a horse than on a human runner. They have a longer respiratory system in which to heat the air before it reaches the lunges from the nostrils and their muscles operate at an extremely high metabolic rate when running and generate considerably more heat than a human does, thus heating the air they breath more effectively and keeping the muscles themselves warmer.

Bob

You are correct about the head wind effect on the horse in the race, but there are tail winds which can aid the horse and the most impact of all wind effects is cross winds which have a “sail” effect on the horse because of the horse’s body plane being perpendicular to the direction of the wind force; adverse wind effect on the horse starts around 13 mph.

bobphilo
12-13-2009, 12:28 AM
You are correct about the head wind effect on the horse in the race, but there are tail winds which can aid the horse and the most impact of all wind effects is cross winds which have a “sail” effect on the horse because of the horse’s body plane being perpendicular to the direction of the wind force; adverse wind effect on the horse starts around 13 mph.

Cratos, I was mainly addressing the question of how winds can hinder horses, but you are definetly correct that tail winds can also aid them.

I hadn't thought about crosswinds but I have read some opinions that say they have no effect, but I doubt this. I can see how partial crosswinds can help a horse but I think they would need an angle of attack of about 45 degrees to produce a sailboat effect. In sailboat racing the boats have to tack into the wind at 45 degrees to get that effect and act like airplane wings (Bernoulli effect). The horse's body is somewhat shaped to give that effect if the wind crosses it at a similar 45 degree angle from the front/side. For the horse to utilze this effect he/she'd would have to drift across the track from side to side at a 45 degree angle, like a yacht in the Americas Cup, requiring an onboard compute to steer. Not an effective way to run a horse race.
If the wind strikes the body at a flush perpendicular of 90 degress they would have the same slightly negative effect as negotiating a turn, as the horse has to expend energy to overcome the equivalent of centrifugal or centripetal force trying to make them drift out or in. This is in addition to the actual centrifugal forces in effect.
As if things weren't complicated enough, one could also try to examine the effects of drafting. this is more than just using the horse in front of you to break the wind, but involves riding the slipstream generated by the horse in front, just behind and to the sides of the horse in front of it.

Before everyone throws up their hands in frustration., I suggest that people confine themselves to the obvious head and tail winds and windbreaking effects and perhaps do a little study on the effects of slipstream riding if you have the time. I'm a big believer in Ocam's Razor which, slices through unnecessary hypotheses and limits your precious time to the few simplest clearcut variables you can understand and likely to give you the best results.

Bob

Cratos
12-13-2009, 02:07 PM
Cratos, I was mainly addressing the question of how winds can hinder horses, but you are definetly correct that tail winds can also aid them.

I hadn't thought about crosswinds but I have read some opinions that say they have no effect, but I doubt this. I can see how partial crosswinds can help a horse but I think they would need an angle of attack of about 45 degrees to produce a sailboat effect. In sailboat racing the boats have to tack into the wind at 45 degrees to get that effect and act like airplane wings (Bernoulli effect). The horse's body is somewhat shaped to give that effect if the wind crosses it at a similar 45 degree angle from the front/side. For the horse to utilze this effect he/she'd would have to drift across the track from side to side at a 45 degree angle, like a yacht in the Americas Cup, requiring an onboard compute to steer. Not an effective way to run a horse race.
If the wind strikes the body at a flush perpendicular of 90 degress they would have the same slightly negative effect as negotiating a turn, as the horse has to expend energy to overcome the equivalent of centrifugal or centripetal force trying to make them drift out or in. This is in addition to the actual centrifugal forces in effect.
As if things weren't complicated enough, one could also try to examine the effects of drafting. this is more than just using the horse in front of you to break the wind, but involves riding the slipstream generated by the horse in front, just behind and to the sides of the horse in front of it.

Before everyone throws up their hands in frustration., I suggest that people confine themselves to the obvious head and tail winds and windbreaking effects and perhaps do a little study on the effects of slipstream riding if you have the time. I'm a big believer in Ocam's Razor which, slices through unnecessary hypotheses and limits your precious time to the few simplest clearcut variables you can understand and likely to give you the best results.

Bob

Bob,

After posting my response I re-read it and realize that a 90 degree wind force wouldn’t be a “sail” effect, but a wind force angle less than 90 degrees (45 degrees as you have identified) would.

However I do believe that the effect of wind force on the running of a racehorse is critically one of the most dominant environmental effects on the racehorse’s aerodynamic performance when the force is 13 mph or above.

Bochall
12-13-2009, 02:16 PM
Jockeys are affected too. Some (like EJ Perrodin in Louisiana) totally chuck it when its too cold for them. With many jocks coming from Latin America that is a real possibility...whats it like on horseback in minimal clothing (to make weight) going 35mph on 30 degree day into a stiff wind? I am looking for cover! See my profile? Thats a warm weather site!!!

Valuist
12-13-2009, 04:53 PM
Today is an example of a thawing out racing surface at Hawthorne. Haw has had some very cold temps in the past week but today its been in the upper 30s and the track has thawed. Even though its not raining, water comes up through the surface. If the track is still listed fast, it should be wet-fast.

macdiarmida
12-16-2009, 02:02 AM
Originally Posted by ranchwest
I'd like to better understand what you are saying. How are the shortened post parades affecting speed?
Check out the E and E/P horses in a race in low temps. Watch who warms up and who doesn't. Then see who does/doesn't get out of gate and get/not get position early. IMO results for the guys that go without warmups are worse than on a warm day. Guess they need a better ignition system and a Diehard?

ranchwest
12-16-2009, 08:47 AM
Check out the E and E/P horses in a race in low temps. Watch who warms up and who doesn't. Then see who does/doesn't get out of gate and get/not get position early. IMO results for the guys that go without warmups are worse than on a warm day. Guess they need a better ignition system and a Diehard?

Thanks, I thought that was what you were saying, but I didn't get it the first time.

bobphilo
12-16-2009, 11:23 AM
Bob,

After posting my response I re-read it and realize that a 90 degree wind force wouldn’t be a “sail” effect, but a wind force angle less than 90 degrees (45 degrees as you have identified) would.

However I do believe that the effect of wind force on the running of a racehorse is critically one of the most dominant environmental effects on the racehorse’s aerodynamic performance when the force is 13 mph or above.

Cratos,

Thanks for clearing that up. I also think that wind is an important determinant of a horse's performance. While it does show up in the track variant by affecting times, the fact that it can change in force and direction during the day can make the variant change from race to race.
Futhermore, since horses change direction at least once or twice during the running of the race, it can also complicate pace calculations, making fractions run in one direction against the wind slower than those aided by it.

Bob

markgoldie
12-16-2009, 11:24 AM
I figured that this topic would turn to track condition and wind instead of temperature - but I am seeking opinions on whether extremely cold temperatures physically affect front runners. For instance, is there a temp that is so cold that front runners just can't maintain there speed due to breathing problems. Also, my thought is that on a calm, dry and sunny 20 degree day when wind and track maintenance are not factors, claiming front runners may be able to carry their speed at shorter sprints but are a "bet against" at 7f and 1 mile.
The natural assumption made by the posters was that you were seeking some guidance as to betting speed in very cold temperatures. As such, the effects of cold on the track condition and it's speed-favoring or speed-hampering properties becomes just as germane to the discussion as any possible psyiological effects that the cold may have on the breathing of horses.

Be that as it may, you seem to believe that only front runners have to breathe- not sure where you got that notion except that there may be a natural tendency to believe that front runners somehow have to breathe faster or harder than closers. However, the breathing patterns of horses is more related to physical condition and age than early or late maximum exertion in a race; that is, a closer may well "blow" harder than a front runner.

All factors being totally equal, the effects of cold do have a marked effect which places a certain premium on overall fitness or stamina. In fact, many trainers step up the between-race physical activity of their animals in very cold weather and this strategy seems to pay dividends. I have no insights on the biochemical or psyiological/mechanical reasoning for this, but it seems to hold true. However, I doubt that it has anything to do with the breathing patterns of the horses.