Longshot Chronicles! How Can You Play This $216 Horse?

[andymays]

At Hollywood Park on Sunday December 6th in the 4th race a 4yo gelding won the race and paid over $200 to win.

The PP's are attached and the results Chart will be attached to the second post.

I see a horse with an improving pattern in his third start off a layoff.

I see a horse that is two for three at the distance with a win on synthetic at Golden Gate.

I see a horse that has some good works since raced.

I see a horse who improved in his second off a layoff making while having an impact on the race by getting the lead and holding it for more than half of the race. Santa Anita was not speed favoring. Hollywood Park is speed favoring. His beyer improved 7 points from his comeback race to his second race as well with a 61. The race favorite ran a 65 beyer in his last race.

I see a horse with an improving pattern in his third off a layoff. How many others in the race show an improving pattern?
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I also see a horse that has a bad post position (there was a late scratch so he moved in one position).

I see a horse with a Trainer who is 1 for 37 in 2009

I see a horse with a jockey who is 0 for 28 at Hollywood Park
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While I can see why someone would not have a big win bet on this horse I can definitely see using him for 3rd or 4th in the exotics or as one of 5 contenders in the pick 3's or 4's. The odds of the horse is what makes using him so attractive. At 100 to 1 this horse has all the makings of a huge score if you think he will improve again in his third start off a layoff. If he was 10 to 1 then not so much.
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Does anyone see any reasons to use this horse?

Are my points on top valid or not?

What's your opinion after looking at the PP's and the result charts in the next post?

[andymays]

At Hollywood Park on Sunday December 6th in the 4th race a 4yo gelding won the race and paid over $200 to win.

The PP's are attached and the results Chart will be attached to the second post.

I see a horse with an improving pattern in his third start off a layoff.

I see a horse that is two for three at the distance with a win on synthetic at Golden Gate.

I see a horse that has some good works since raced.

I see a horse who improved in his second off a layoff making while having an impact on the race by getting the lead and holding it for more than half of the race. Santa Anita was not speed favoring. Hollywood Park is speed favoring. His beyer improved 7 points from his comeback race to his second race as well with a 61. The race favorite ran a 65 beyer in his last race.

I see a horse with an improving pattern in his third off a layoff. How many others in the race show an improving pattern?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I also see a horse that has a bad post position (there was a late scratch so he moved in one position).

I see a horse with a Trainer who is 1 for 37 in 2009

I see a horse with a jockey who is 0 for 28 at Hollywood Park
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

While I can see why someone would not have a big win bet on this horse I can definitely see using him for 3rd or 4th in the exotics or as one of 5 contenders in the pick 3's or 4's. The odds of the horse is what makes using him so attractive. At 100 to 1 this horse has all the makings of a huge score if you think he will improve again in his third start off a layoff. If he was 10 to 1 then not so much.
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Does anyone see any reasons to use this horse?

Are my points on top valid or not?

What's your opinion after looking at the PP's and the result charts in the next post?

Take a look at the charts below.

This horse definitely didn't jump off the page of the PP's at you but you must admit you can't say he had no shot!

[misscashalot]

maybe winning trainer Oscar Garcia is a reincarnation of Oscar Barrera

[andymays]

maybe winning trainer Oscar Garcia is a reincarnation of Oscar Barrera


Are you saying you can't see any reason in the PP's that this horse could be an contender in the race?

Remember the race favorite ran a 65 beyer in his last and this horse ran a 61 in his second off a layoff.

[misscashalot]

Are you saying you can't see any reason in the PP's that this horse could be an contender in the race?

Remember the race favorite ran a 65 beyer in his last and this horse ran a 61 in his second off a layoff.

What Im saying is, if you're looking to win at this endeavor, then 100-1 shots arent the way to go. For the last 45,000 races on the NYRA circuit, only 3 have won at 99-1 or more. The player has better ways to squander his time then lugging down that road.

[ArlJim78]

that horse was actually tabbed by one of my lower performing models, so I chose not to play it for that reason. I made my plays well in advance, and actually did place a win bet on the horse that came second. I might have been inclined to make a small win bet on the winner had i been paying attention to the odds.

yes I agree there were a few things to note in the pp's that made it look semi-playable.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

I personally couldn't see the horse, but if one plays on the basis of just betting overlays and had the horse tabbed at say 45-1, they might have been inclined to bet it at 100-1 (a value play).

Is it red boarding when I mention someone who actually bet the horse, if it was someone other than me?

Jeff, from HANA and Jcapper actually had a bet on the horse. Not sure on what basis, but my inclination is that it was an overlay bet and not a first or second choice play.

[wisconsin]

Improving horse, lead into the stretch at 7 furlongs, dangerous early speed now going 2 turns. 99-1? This horse clearly does not fit the 99-1 stereotype on paper, thus was an overlay that I missed.

[BIG HIT]

From my stand point as a angle player and trainer intent frist then spd and pace.The trainer was 25% at thrid off lay moved up price andcondition last race which good sign. Was a jerry stokes and jim lehane call profile test race in there books plus a wide out play.And puttting wht on that was more than last two races suggesting easyer spot today. Inp figure plus 5 works evenly spaced in 27 days for todays race
Like misscashalot say there were only 3 winners in 45000 races but there are plenty that pay double digts that said do admit on pace speed and run style are all suspect.But trainer intent in eyes had to be #1 just my opion was not a reach

[Bochall]

What Im saying is, if you're looking to win at this endeavor, then 100-1 shots arent the way to go. For the last 45,000 races on the NYRA circuit, only 3 have won at 99-1 or more. The player has better ways to squander his time then lugging down that road.

Exactly, these occurences are so few and far between thats its useless for me to study them in an attempt to 'see them coming'. Is there a spot play system for 99-1 plus shots?? In NY its winning at a .00007%....these things happen...marvel at it for a sec then write it off and move on.

[misscashalot]

Exactly, these occurences are so few and far between thats its useless for me to study them in an attempt to 'see them coming'. Is there a spot play system for 99-1 plus shots?? In NY its winning at a .00007%....these things happen...marvel at it for a sec then write it off and move on.

Maybe Dave Powers/Clint Tracey has a spot play pamphlet. :lol:

[senortout]

So far, I don't think anyone has paid much attention to the real reason for those absurdly high odds.....the green boy aboard....not to take anything away from the boy, he just doesn't yet inspire confidence! Not to say he won't get real hot sometime in the future.....

Other than that, what's not to like?

senortout

ps of course, anything R. Baze has ridden up north has to have something going for it!

[Tom]

I'd play a horse like this in a contest, but not with real money.

[andymays]

It's one of those situation where a horse that was lightly raced this year (2 starts) and improving moved up in the third off a layoff while other contenders regressed. It happens. Not often but it happens.

Using a horse like this pays off because of the odds. If you get one like this every year or every couple of years it's worth using it.

On the same card the winner of the feature race, Kinsale King was a horse I used in his last start at over 60 to 1. I did not use him on Sunday because I though the 2 horse would get the lead or pressure him. The 2 got left at the gate and Kinsale King gets away with a 23 and 1/5 first quarter and wins.

I used Kinsale King the time before at 60-1 because of the workout comments from Bruno coming into the race.

My point is that when it comes to playing longshots you have to reach a little. You also have to find what could be some vulnerable contenders in the race. The race won by Rummysecret War had plenty of vulnerable contenders.

[Jackal]

You have to work at the track to spot most longshots. A friend bought a stunted mare at the LATB sale for $300. One morning I was out on the track waiting for a horse to pony. I notice the little filly breezing by. So I lit out after her on my pony. My pony had won several races at different tracks. I was able to catch her but my pony wouldn't pass the little mare.

He enters the little mare in a 10k LA bred maiden claimer. She beats the other horses like they were tied at over 200 to 1. I had $30 on her nose.

You simply can't see that type of performance in the racing form.

[gm10]

At Hollywood Park on Sunday December 6th in the 4th race a 4yo gelding won the race and paid over $200 to win.

The PP's are attached and the results Chart will be attached to the second post.

I see a horse with an improving pattern in his third start off a layoff.

I see a horse that is two for three at the distance with a win on synthetic at Golden Gate.

I see a horse that has some good works since raced.

I see a horse who improved in his second off a layoff making while having an impact on the race by getting the lead and holding it for more than half of the race. Santa Anita was not speed favoring. Hollywood Park is speed favoring. His beyer improved 7 points from his comeback race to his second race as well with a 61. The race favorite ran a 65 beyer in his last race.

I see a horse with an improving pattern in his third off a layoff. How many others in the race show an improving pattern?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I also see a horse that has a bad post position (there was a late scratch so he moved in one position).

I see a horse with a Trainer who is 1 for 37 in 2009

I see a horse with a jockey who is 0 for 28 at Hollywood Park
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

While I can see why someone would not have a big win bet on this horse I can definitely see using him for 3rd or 4th in the exotics or as one of 5 contenders in the pick 3's or 4's. The odds of the horse is what makes using him so attractive. At 100 to 1 this horse has all the makings of a huge score if you think he will improve again in his third start off a layoff. If he was 10 to 1 then not so much.
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Does anyone see any reasons to use this horse?

Are my points on top valid or not?

What's your opinion after looking at the PP's and the result charts in the next post?

I did not see or bet the race - only looking at it because of this thread.

I have the horse down as the lone early speed (by 3 lengths). I'm guessing he won wire to wire?

[andymays]

I did not see or bet the race - only looking at it because of this thread.

I have the horse down as the lone early speed (by 3 lengths). I'm guessing he won wire to wire?


He took over on the backside and kept going. At least that was my memory and I haven't watched the replay.

The reason I started the thread was because someone in another thread implied that the Trainer used a performance enhancing substance and this horse could not win otherwise. When I went over the PP's I saw several reasons this one had a shot and I outlined them above.

[CBedo]

Andy, did you have the horse (before the race)? Maybe it would be more informative to ask someone who actually bet it why they did so? I think I heard them on TVG say BombsAwayBob might have had that horse.

[Light]

Its all hindsight now. You can always make a case for any winner after the race.That being said,It seems that most longshots I see,unexpectedly go wire to wire or close to it like this horse.He was the speed of the race because despite the other 2 speed in here,it was a case of their route speed vs the winners sprint speed. Of course most lone speed longshots do not go w-w,so its not as easy as hindsight and this horse is now being analyzed out of context to more attractive looking contestants we would have chosen before the race.

[Jeff P]

I had the horse before the race... or rather one of my UDMs did. And yes, I bet the horse to win and cashed the exacta.

The UDM I created (months ago) that liked the horse is based on several different Form numbers produced by algorithms that I wrote for JCapper. Further, the horse was highlighted on the JCapper Form Consensus... which believe it or not had the runner up second.

I was on the phone helping someone do an install when the race went off. I did not see the race which is not unusual. I had pre bet the entire card soon after scratches and changes were available.

I admit I was not expecting 100-1... maybe somewhere in the vicinity of 35-1 or 40-1. My bet, sized according to probability estimates made pre race based on 35-1 was not a large one.

When I looked at results, I was shocked when I saw 100-1.


-jp

.

[andymays]

Andy, did you have the horse (before the race)? Maybe it would be more informative to ask someone who actually bet it why they did so? I think I heard them on TVG say BombsAwayBob might have had that horse.


As I said in an earlier post I put up the thread after someone on another thread implied that this horse won because of some performance enhancing substance given to the horse by the Trainer. When I went back to see if there were any clues to go on in the PP's I found several.

I never said that I cashed on this horse.

Are there any invalid assertions made by me on my analysis of the horses PP's?

[andymays]

I had the horse before the race... or rather one of my UDMs did. And yes, I bet the horse to win and cashed the exacta.

The UDM I created (months ago) that liked the horse is based on several different Form numbers produced by algorithms that I wrote for JCapper. Further, the horse was highlighted on the JCapper Form Consensus... which believe it or not had the runner up second.

I was on the phone helping someone do an install when the race went off. I did not see the race which is not unusual. I had pre bet the entire card soon after scratches and changes were available.

I admit I was not expecting 100-1... maybe somewhere in the vicinity of 35-1 or 40-1. My bet, sized according to probability estimates made pre race based on 35-1 was not a large one.

When I looked at results, I was shocked when I saw 100-1.


-jp

.


Good Job Jeff! :ThmbUp:

Don't forget to donate to HANA! ;)

In all seriousness do you look at the PP's or does your program dictate who you bet and why you make a bet?

[CapperLou]

I had the horse before the race... or rather one of my UDMs did. And yes, I bet the horse to win and cashed the exacta.

The UDM I created (months ago) that liked the horse is based on several different Form numbers produced by algorithms that I wrote for JCapper. Further, the horse was highlighted on the JCapper Form Consensus... which believe it or not had the runner up second.

I was on the phone helping someone do an install when the race went off. I did not see the race which is not unusual. I had pre bet the entire card soon after scratches and changes were available.

I admit I was not expecting 100-1... maybe somewhere in the vicinity of 35-1 or 40-1. My bet, sized according to probability estimates made pre race based on 35-1 was not a large one.

When I looked at results, I was shocked when I saw 100-1.


-jp

.

I had this one too based on the highlighted form factors and more. I also put all of my plays for day in early--never expected anywhere near this price if a winner. I do know of another JCapper user who also had this winner. The price was shocking, to say the least.

Thanks Jeff for everything you have and keep doing with this mighty fine handicapping tool.

[CBedo]

As I said in an earlier post I put up the thread after someone on another thread implied that this horse won because of some performance enhancing substance given to the horse by the Trainer. When I went back to see if there were any clues to go on in the PP's I found several.

I never said that I cashed on this horse.

Are there any invalid assertions made by me on my analysis of the horses PP's?I wasn't implying that. My point is that there are very few winners that we can't get after the fact. I'm not a conspiracy theorist that would agree with the person who implied there must be drugs (it must be larceny when I don't win!), but just because we can find a reason to bet him after the fact, doesn't mean it wasn't drug induced either.

[Jeff P]

Good Job Jeff! :ThmbUp:

Don't forget to donate to HANA! ;)

In all seriousness do you look at the PP's or does your program dictate who you bet and why you make a bet?

I do all of my "handicapping" in the months and weeks leading up to race day by studying data samples and building models based on overlooked factors in the samples that I work with.

On race day I download files, get scratches and changes, generate reports, and make play or pass decisions on horses selected by my models. No PP's for me as they would just get in my way.

This is the html report that I used:
http://www.JCapper.com/MessageBoard/Reports/report_HOL12062009R4.html

Names of the UDMs/Models that selected horses appear beneath the name of each horse. I've customized the report so that the UDMs/Models stick out since that is what I'm looking for.

From there it's a question of "How is the public going to bet this race?" I thought they would bet the 6 down and let the 11 go... although I never expected anything close to 100-1.

-jp

.

[andymays]

I wasn't implying that. My point is that there are very few winners that we can't get after the fact. I'm not a conspiracy theorist that would agree with the person who implied there must be drugs (it must be larceny when I don't win!), but just because we can find a reason to bet him after the fact, doesn't mean it wasn't drug induced either.

I didn't take it as a shot at my analysis. I'm just trying to keep the thread about reasons why this horse had a shot based on the PP's and sound handicapping principles.

If it was drug induced the tests will show it. Implying that the only way this horse could have won was with drugs is just false. There are plenty of handicapping factors that make this horse a possible contender. Even if this horse tests positive I don't think Jeff P will be giving his money back to anyone. ;) Again there were reasons to make this horse a contender.

One of the biggest problems in racing is the perception that drugs are involved anytime a longshot wins or any time certain trainers win. I know that is the conventional wisdom among many Horseplayers. While performance enhancing drugs do exist they are far less commonly used than the public thinks they are. Particularly over the last couple of years. Most of the violations are for extremely small levels of drugs and in most cases the Ruling bodies have said that they are not performance enhancing levels.

But again it's about the PP's for Rummysecret War and nothing else. Anything else is pure speculation.

[Show Me the Wire]

Okay, I am tired of the misrepresentaions by andymays. First, there is no sour grapes as I did not bet this race and had no financial interest in the outcome.

Second, my reason for the discussion is centered around why andymays was upset by the pace scenario involving an uncoupled entry, so much so, he expressed his feelings that people thought they were cheated, stating that these questionable performances are bad for racing. In light of his crusade to protect the bettor, I wondered why he wasn't upset about this particular suspicious performance.

My quote below explains why I thought the performance was suspicious.

"It is not simply that the horse won, it is how the horse looked while winning. He looked like he could go around again and still win by open lengths. If you ask me pretty suspicious performance for this horse and level of competition"

Adding to the above-thought, Rummysecretwar was 5 wide into the first turn, contesting the lead three wide in the backstretch, after gaining the lead (around the 9/16ths pole) he drew off and was under a hold at the wire.

On this day the track was not kind to front-runners, and this horse did not have an easy lead. The performance is suspicious.

However, if Cj wants to I would like his input in determining if this was an exceptional performance speed figure wise. It certainly didn't look like 65 BSF performance.

[andymays]

Okay, I am tired of the misrepresentaions by andymays. First, there is no sour grapes as I did not bet this race and had no financial interest in the outcome.

Second, my reason for the discussion is centered around why andymays was upset by the pace scenario involving an uncoupled entry, so much so, he expressed his feelings that people thought they were cheated, stating that these questionable performances are bad for racing. In light of his crusade to protect the bettor, I wondered why he wasn't upset about this particular suspicious performance.

My quote below explains why I thought the performance was suspicious.

"It is not simply that the horse won, it is how the horse looked while winning. He looked like he could go around again and still win by open lengths. If you ask me pretty suspicious performance for this horse and level of competition"

Adding to the above-thought, Rummysecretwar was 5 wide into the first turn, contesting the lead three wide in the backstretch, after gaining the lead (around the 9/16ths pole) he drew off and was under a hold at the wire.

On this day the track was not kind to front-runners, and this horse did not have an easy lead. The performance is suspicious.

However, if Cj wants to I would like his input in determining if this was an exceptional performance speed figure wise. It certainly didn't look like 65 BSF performance.


First of all I didn't use your name when I started this thread.

Secondly the thread is about Rummysecret War and not the Sadler entry race.

If you want CJ's input then maybe he can make a ruling as a moderator as to why you constantly feel the need to take threads off course with your rantings and ravings. You are becoming a stalker and I don't appreciate it! Get Lost!

[Show Me the Wire]

If it was drug induced the tests will show it. Implying that the only way this horse could have won was with drugs is just false. There are plenty of handicapping factors that make this horse a possible contender. Even if this horse tests positive I don't think Jeff P will be giving his money back to anyone. ;) Again there were reasons to make this horse a contender.

One of the biggest problems in racing is the perception that drugs are involved anytime a longshot wins or any time certain trainers win. I know that is the conventional wisdom among many Horseplayers. While performance enhancing drugs do exist they are far less commonly used than the public thinks they are. Particularly over the last couple of years. Most of the violations are for extremely small levels of drugs and in most cases the Ruling bodies have said that they are not performance enhancing levels.
.


Again more cherry picking to bolster misrepresentaion of the whole discusiion.

Again here is my quote form the discussion:

I think a stronger case could be made for shennigans being played with Rummy. Not necessarily magic elixer, but maybe some stiffing? The stewards shouldn't need me or anybody else to tell them to do their jobs. The best interest of the betting public is not being served in this case.

Additionally, I pointed out to andymays about his perception of fail safe drug testing maybe a faulty assumption, because current tests look for metabolites and some newer performance enhancement drugs do not metabolize in urine or leave a signature in blood.

[Show Me the Wire]

First of all I didn't use your name when I started this thread.

Secondly the thread is about Rummysecret War and not the Sadler entry race.

If you want CJ's input then maybe he can make a ruling as a moderator as to why you constantly feel the need to take threads off course with your rantings and ravings. You are becoming a stalker and I don't appreciate it! Get Lost!


But that is the context in which this discussion evolved. My posting about Garcia's horse was not done in a vacumm or to slam that specific trainer.

Big difference in discussing real or perceived problems in racing in context, than just initiating a post to call a specific trainer a cheater.

Your words:

As I said in an earlier post I put up the thread after someone on another thread implied that this horse won because of some performance enhancing substance given to the horse by the Trainer.

If you would have left out this reference and your earlier one about drugs and our discussion I would not have entered this thread to clarify the discussion.

Any way, what I posted is still is about the horse's performance.

[andymays]

Again more cherry picking to bolster misrepresentaion of the whole discusiion.

Again here is my quote form the discussion:

I think a stronger case could be made for shennigans being played with Rummy. Not necessarily magic elixer, but maybe some stiffing? The stewards shouldn't need me or anybody else to tell them to do their jobs. The best interest of the betting public is not being served in this case.

Additionally, I pointed out to andymays about his perception of fail safe drug testing maybe a faulty assumption, because current tests look for metabolites and some newer performance enhancement drugs do not metabolize in urine or leave a signature in blood.


SMTW I'm done with you and have no interest in your misguided opinions and don't appreciate your stalking or your taking threads off course because you don't like someone. In my book you are a fool.

I hope one of the moderators in the house can do something about you. They can check out the Hollywood 4th thread and see your handiwork there.

Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board - hollywood park race 4

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=64148&page=4&pp=15
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For everyone else it was an interesting thread while it lasted and I'm sorry this person feels the need to take it off course.

[Show Me the Wire]

........taking threads off course because you don't like someone. In my book you are a fool.


You do need validation don't you. Whom don't I like? You.

Why would you take a discussion about people feeling cheated and the problem of performance enhancing drugs personally?

I have participated in civil discourse and never attacked you personally and yet you always want to make it subjective and personal.

Disagreeing with your opinion is just that. I don't disagree with you or ask you to support your opinion with facts, because I don't like you.

Now this is thread drift resulting from your subjective posting about my dislike of you.

[Stillriledup]

This horse was a standout in the post parade. He looked like a grade 1 stakes star. He looked so good coming out there that i relooked at him on pps and still couldn't pull the trigger. He got the lead on the far turn and was cruising in hand. He was never in doubt on the far turn imo.

[BombsAway Bob]

it was a bottom-claimer,& Rummy was going 6F-7F-8.5F, in his THIRD Start of the Year!(RedBoard)
If you look at my bet histoy below, note I made the win bet 4 minutes before my LMSP's, since I just said "OVERLAY" when first going over PP's. Included Rummy in my Dime Super Box, then did my favorite Dime "Double-All backwheel"LMSP, where Rummy was part of the "all" ticket spots.
12/6/094:12 PME23Aqued9$0.10SUBX,1,5,6,10ONLINE$2.40$0.0012/6/094:31 PMC23Holly Park3$0.10SU6/1,3,4,5,6/1,3,4,5,6/1,3,4,5,6ONLINE$2.40$0.0012/6/094:59 PMC13Holly Park4$2.00WN11ONLINE$2.00$216.4012/6/095:03 PMC23Holly Park4$0.10SU1,4,6,7,8,9,10,11/1,4,6,7,8,9,10,11/2/5ONLINE$5.60$0.0012/6/095:03 PM903Holly Park4$0.10SUBX,2,5,7,11ONLINE$2.40$0.00
1st 11-Rummysecret War$216.40$81.00$30.202nd 8-Changing (Arg)-$7.40$6.003rd 5-Turkish Victory--$5.204th 6-Lainies Lion

[BombsAway Bob]

it was a bottom-claimer,& Rummy was going 6F-7F-8.5F, in his THIRD Start of the Year!(RedBoard)
If you look at my bet histoy below, note I made the win bet 4 minutes before my LMSP's, since I just said "OVERLAY" when first going over PP's. Included Rummy in my Dime Super Box, then did my favorite Dime "Double-All backwheel"LMSP, where Rummy was part of the "all" ticket spots.
---------
12/6/094:12 PME23Aqued9 $0.10-----SUBX,1,5,6,10----------------ONLINE$2.40$0.00
12/6/094:31 PMC23Holly Park3 $0.10-----SU6/1,3,4,5/1,3,4,5/1,3,4,5ONLINE$2.40$0.00
12/6/094:59 PMC13Holly Park4$2.00-WN 11---------ONLINE-$2.00-$216.40
12/6/095:03 PMC23Holly Park4 --$0.10SU-1,4,6,7,8,9,10,11/1,4,6,7,8,9,10,11/2/5-ONLINE-$5.60-$0.00
12/6/095:03 PM903Holly Park4-----$0.10-----SUBX,2,5,7,11---ONLINE-$2.40-$0.00
---------
1st~ 11-Rummysecret War--$216.40--$81.00--$30.20
2nd~ 8-Changing (Arg)----------------$7.40--$6.00
3rd~ 5-Turkish Victory------------------------$5.20
4th~ 6-Lainies Lion

[BlueShoe]

Wow,Rummysecret War is sure getting a lot of ink on these forums.Besides this thread,he has been discussed on at least two others.For a $10,000 claimer Rummy sure is popular.But then again,not many win at 107 to 1 and who actually had some angles that made him playable.

[BillW]

I had the horse before the race... or rather one of my UDMs did. And yes, I bet the horse to win and cashed the exacta.

The UDM I created (months ago) that liked the horse is based on several different Form numbers produced by algorithms that I wrote for JCapper. Further, the horse was highlighted on the JCapper Form Consensus... which believe it or not had the runner up second.

I was on the phone helping someone do an install when the race went off. I did not see the race which is not unusual. I had pre bet the entire card soon after scratches and changes were available.

I admit I was not expecting 100-1... maybe somewhere in the vicinity of 35-1 or 40-1. My bet, sized according to probability estimates made pre race based on 35-1 was not a large one.

When I looked at results, I was shocked when I saw 100-1.


-jp

.

He was at the top in form in HTR in a highly volatile race (relatively poor favorite and 2nd choice M/L). Of course you don't bet every 100+ to 1 horse that is in top form (usually high odds horses are over bet) and you don't expect every 100+ to 1 horse to jump off the page but rather have only one or two hints of success.

BTW, I didn't bet this race, or even see it - I'm just post-mortem'ing it from the database. Echo'ing Tom's comment though - if I was firing in a contest looking for a cap horse, I wouldn't have dismissed this one.

[Seabiscuit@AR]

You can make a case for any horse after the race is run. The key is to spot the horse before the race is run and put money on it

Looking at the Equibase results chart there was 248K in the WPS pools. Not sure what proportion of it was win money vs place/show money. But taking into account takeout and the odds of 107-1 there cannot have been much more than $1500 bet on this horse to win from the whole of America. So the answer is that pre race not many people could bet this horse to win or if they could they did not have the confidence to put more than a small bet on it

I can appreciate the fact that on older form it had ability, plus it was the most likely leader. So it did have some things that might lead someone to place a small bet on it. But overall I agree with the public here who reckoned it was only worth risking $1500 or so on. Its recent form was poor and this win was a huge improvement on that recent form

[Stillriledup]

You can make a case for any horse after the race is run. The key is to spot the horse before the race is run and put money on it

Looking at the Equibase results chart there was 248K in the WPS pools. Not sure what proportion of it was win money vs place/show money. But taking into account takeout and the odds of 107-1 there cannot have been much more than $1500 bet on this horse to win from the whole of America. So the answer is that pre race not many people could bet this horse to win or if they could they did not have the confidence to put more than a small bet on it

I can appreciate the fact that on older form it had ability, plus it was the most likely leader. So it did have some things that might lead someone to place a small bet on it. But overall I agree with the public here who reckoned it was only worth risking $1500 or so on. Its recent form was poor and this win was a huge improvement on that recent form


He had about 1k to win on him.

[rokitman]

I played it. I play any horse who has rummys, war or ecret in the name. This was a AAA play for me. I posted it on my website Iloveandymays.com (http://www.lunacytoons.com/holiday/pissmas.php)

[Overlay]

My (admittedly after-the-fact) full-field odds line (but using the same criteria that I look at before a race) had Rummysecret War as the third-longest shot in the field at fair odds of 42-1, with his touch of early foot being his redeeming quality. (Nobody's most likely winner, but still at higher odds than he should have been.)

[bisket]

andy i'm sorry i didn't see this sooner. i would have liked him for one reason and its a big one. i always look to see what a horse gets when he wins. when this horse can get a 24 second pace for the first 1/4 he gets interested in running. every race he won or contended the pace was 24 second first 1/4 and 48 and change for the 1/2. looking at every horse in this race he was likely to get a 24 second first 1/4, and 48-49 second 1/2. the two sprints he raced in just wasn't his cup of tea. he's a router and just can't run fast but can sustain fractions for a route of ground. i don't know if i would have played him, but this type i would consider. even runners are always a good play on poly. sometimes in low levels like this if a horse smells the lead he gets interested in winning. if he can't smell the front after a 1/2 mile he packs it in. thats the main method i use when analyzing races. whats the pace gonna be. what horses like this type of race. he very well may have made it in the tri for me, but i don't really know.

[bisket]

another point. i wouldn't have looked at his odds until i finished handicapping the race. so the odds wouldn't go into my decision until after i decided whether or not he had a chance to win.

[statepierback]

I was alive in the pick 4 to the horse that finished third and a horse that was declared in the saddling area. Thus I had the betting favorite which I wasn't happy about. When I first handicapped the race I tossed the winner because of the rider. After the race I went back and will admit the horse was playable based on a fractional analysis which put him in front at the 1/2 mile pole on a speed favoring track. But it was still a reach.

[Jackal]

I would have had to see the horse train to bet him. His back form was great but lately he appeared to be damaged goods.

I usually ignore speed ratings. I have seen to many horses that set track records get a high 90 speed rating. Yet a horse that races 2 seconds off the track record with a turtle pace gets a 100+. Rule in the delta jackpot is a prime example. He got a 97 in the jean laffite.

I could understand the discrepancy if all the horses on a given day ran faster than average but that is seldom the case.

[kenwoodallpromos]

If you do not bet horses because the crowd does not like it, iIhave 3 suggestions:
1) Look at the tote board 29 minutes to post, see that no one yet bet ANY horse, and never bet a race!
2) look at the toteboard at 29 minutes to post, assume they all have an equal shot until YOU handicap them!
3) Make your own odds line or have an idea of you "true" odds on each horse, wait until 2 minutes to post; If you see a horse on the board at 99+ /1
that your "true" odds says should only be 50/1, bet the thing and eventuallt double your money!!
My guess is all except the 3 winners, all the rest that had 99+//1 odds and lost, did not have all the BASIC factors in their favor the only 3 wiinners at NYRA had!!
IMHO, the higher the odds based on the crowd, the smaller the number of positive factors needed to place a bet!

I will rtemind all about Belmont earlier this year, the longshot trhat won a stakes at 1 1/2 miles that already had won to (lesser) races at 1 1/2 miles there! 1 1/2 mile success was the biggest factor going for it.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Eldaafer, claimed for $20,000 earlier this year, came with a late stretch run and pulled off a 17-1 shocker in the $198,500 Brooklyn Handicap (gr. II) (VIDEO) June 5 on the slop at Belmont Park.

[WinterTriangle]

I'm not gonna look at the PPs again, but I remember this race.

Rummysecretwar was not playable, IMHO........until Orientation Hall, scratched (couldn't saddle him).

Turkish Victory turned out to not be improving in form and didn't step up that day. Fassnacht has won a few but didn't step up either. Those were the only horses with some speed as I remember.

Rummy is not really a speed horse, more a stalker usually just off the pace, or sometimes pressures the pace?

So, the scratch and the way the other horses "didn't" perform allowed him to win. Although Rummy is something like 7 for 14 ITM, as I remember? Not totally impossible although there were people touting him.

[bisket]

some know this but maybe some people aren't aware. if the horse made it in my trifecta he would have been boxed, and with these odds i woulda put some coin on his nose no doubt. analyzing opening 1/2 mile fractions is how i always knew when macho again would win. knowing what type of race a horse excels in will always help you come up with horses with long odds. most handicappers don't use this angle. remember when analyzing how a race will be run; think like a jock.

[fmolf]

To say this horse was an overlay at 100/1 and not an overlay at 50/1 is splitting hairs since 100/1 is given a 1% chance to win and 50/1 a 2% chance to win.Personally i could never play a horse that was 107/1...I do not make an odds line until i have the race whittled down to 3 or 4 contenders.I then give the field 20% chance and rate my contenders accordingly.In small fields i only give 10% or 15% to the field.

[bisket]

the other good indication for this horse being around at the end: both his wins were at this distance. remember class than distance is the top criteria in pickin da horseys

[WinterTriangle]

both his wins were at this distance.

And Orientation Hall, Bob Benoit, Street Royale, Fassnacht, James Prior, etc. all have wins at this distance.

I guess I don't see the big deal here. :confused: It was a no-play race for me. Nobody in the race even had a low M/L, one of the speed horses got scratched, and Fassnacht and Turkish didn't fire.

It isn't like everyone "missed" some big secret.

On one of the boards I play, the picks before the race were one in every flavor. Orientation Hall had the most, then he was scratched. After that, James Prior or Street Royale seemed to be liked. I personally like Fassnacht.

It was *anybody's* race.....so I didn't wager it.

[NY BRED]

what's not to like about this 200$ baby?:eek:

The majority of the entries ran on rubber and most of them exhibit poor form
on dirt, while the #11 looks great on dirt, awful on synthetic.

The real "favs" are dropping in most instances by 50% in price.


can't believe i didn't watch Hol on 12/6............:bang:

[bisket]

And Orientation Hall, Bob Benoit, Street Royale, Fassnacht, James Prior, etc. all have wins at this distance.

I guess I don't see the big deal here. :confused: It was a no-play race for me. Nobody in the race even had a low M/L, one of the speed horses got scratched, and Fassnacht and Turkish didn't fire.

It isn't like everyone "missed" some big secret.

On one of the boards I play, the picks before the race were one in every flavor. Orientation Hall had the most, then he was scratched. After that, James Prior or Street Royale seemed to be liked. I personally like Fassnacht.

It was *anybody's* race.....so I didn't wager it.
i don't know if i would have played this horse or not, but theres just as much reason to like this one as the others. this one was 100-1. thats all. the "anybodies" race also means your getting a good price on horses that have just as much a chance to win as lower priced horses. which means your getting good valu for your dollar wagered. thats never a bad angle. in a race like this bet the longest shot to win, and play an exacta. to many combinations for a tri. when you are confused about a race it only means its a tough one to pick. theres not alot of difference between runners. lower your wager and play the longest shot that you believe has a chance. its typical for a handicapper to get frustrated by a race like this. it low level claimers, and easy to off hand toss a horse. theres millions of other races to play etc. etc. you said the speed was scratched. if the only speed is gone from the race. that right there is what opened the race up to a longshot plodder to win. races nowadays without speed are few and far between. so handicappers don't know what to do. this is the spot for an even type runner to win. the closers don't have pace to run into so a race like this; an even type stamina horse has the edge. when a race confuses you bet small and experiment.

[delayjf]

This long shot winner is hardly the worst looking horse I’ve ever seen win a race.

I think the crowd took one look at this horses connections and the fact that his best race speed figures were 10-12 point below what several horses had been running, and tossed him without a thought.

Despite the overall bad record of its trainer, it does appear that he was aiming his barn for a few wins at Hollywood. In five starts, he had placed 2 times. Given that all his wins were in route races, I don’t think it’s a stretch to conclude that the two sprint race following a 1-year layoff were preps. I don’t have the pace figures for this horse, but I’d bet that he earned a pace top in his second race back and followed that effort with an improved middle (3rd ¼ - 23 4/5) fraction. Throw in his workouts and its not difficult to see that this horse is improving – the million dollar question is how much will he improve?? His best speed figures are in the 68 range. If his recent pace figures are about equal or preferable superior to this field, I might give him a look.

But I think the horse I would have preferred was the 8, Changing, who had a similar pattern (sprint to route, with an improved pace figure in his last) except that the 8 had run SF that were competitive with this field.

[Overlay]

I do not make an odds line until i have the race whittled down to 3 or 4 contenders.I then give the field 20% chance and rate my contenders accordingly.In small fields i only give 10% or 15% to the field.

So, in your handicapping, once you've arrived at your contenders, do you then completely disregard the chances of the horses in the "field"? If so, why? If not, what criteria would you require one of the "field" horses to meet in order to be considered bettable?

[fmolf]

I pare the horses down to the two three or four most likely winners thru my handicapping method,irrespective of the morning line.then i compare the odds i assign to each contender and what the tote odds are and decide if i want to bet on one horse or two horses in that race.I rarely bet on horses over 20 or 25/1I would need to have assigned a 20/1 shot odds of 15/1 before i would think of betting him.Then only if there was not a clear cut solid favorite in the race would i bet the overlaid longshot.I usually pass a race if i feel the favorite is solid and underlaid.I will bet if i feel the favorite is solid and underbet.

[Stillriledup]

And Orientation Hall, Bob Benoit, Street Royale, Fassnacht, James Prior, etc. all have wins at this distance.

I guess I don't see the big deal here. :confused: It was a no-play race for me. Nobody in the race even had a low M/L, one of the speed horses got scratched, and Fassnacht and Turkish didn't fire.

It isn't like everyone "missed" some big secret.

On one of the boards I play, the picks before the race were one in every flavor. Orientation Hall had the most, then he was scratched. After that, James Prior or Street Royale seemed to be liked. I personally like Fassnacht.

It was *anybody's* race.....so I didn't wager it.


Orientation Hall was scratched because he was 'unruly in the paddock". He came back a couple weeks after that scratch and flopped at 3-5 in a horrible 8k claimer with no real excuse finishing a lackluster 3rd.

[lsosa54]

Had missed this thread until today. This horse was 20-1 ML and by all software and non-software methods I use, was at or near the bottom of the field in all areas, even after the Orientation Hall scratch.

Someone on another board had looked at over 120,000 races and mentioned that 20-1 ML entries won at a 1.65% rate. Not sure what races or circuits were covered, but maybe someone can verify those stats. 15-1 ML won at 2.6% and 30-1 ML or higher at 0.15%. All pretty awful.

The only program that showed the horse tied for 3rd in FM rating, which is a measure of form, was HandiFast. Since I have seen various longshots coming from that particular rating esp. in cheap claimers and maiden claimers, he was worth a $2 flyer but no more. Turkish Victory was my top ranked horse but no, I did not play the exacta. Stupid in retrospect, but chasing 99-1 shots in multiple bets can take you to the poor house.

If you ask user douglasw32, who created the FM rating, he'll tell you it wasn't rocket science, but it can pick some wicked longshots in races where most form has question marks. Props to Doug.

[BlueShoe]

Rummy is entered tomorrow in the 5th at Santa Anita, his first start since the bombshell. Drew the rail and is stepping up one notch in class.There are class droppers that could be dangerous, and a couple that may prompt the pace. While a repeat is not impossible, it looks likes a tough spot for our hero.

[ranchwest]

What Im saying is, if you're looking to win at this endeavor, then 100-1 shots arent the way to go. For the last 45,000 races on the NYRA circuit, only 3 have won at 99-1 or more. The player has better ways to squander his time then lugging down that road.

I guess the horse didn't read the stat.

[andymays]

5-1 on the ML. They took Amador off and put Espinoza on (that sucks for Amador). This guy has improved in each of his starts this year and could keep moving up the ladder.

Not a lot of pace other than Fiery Trippi who seems to be headed the wrong way although this is the easiest spot yet and a good recent workout says he could be tough in this spot. Speed is not as favorable at Santa Anita.

[Stillriledup]

5-1 on the ML. They took Amador off and put Espinoza on (that sucks for Amador). This guy has improved in each of his starts this year and could keep moving up the ladder.

Not a lot of pace other than Fiery Trippi who seems to be headed the wrong way although this is the easiest spot yet and a good recent workout says he could be tough in this spot. Speed is not as favorable at Santa Anita.

Fiery Trippi lugged out into the path of Camisado and cost him 2nd money. FT was 'clear' but Cami was running him down and FT kept coming out. According to the rules, this is not a DQ situation because you're allowed to drift across the track as many paths as you want if you are 'clear'. If FT stays in a straight line, Camisado gets 2nd. Did FT cost Camisado 2nd? Depends on how you look at things.

[andymays]

I think the difference is Hollywood vs Santa Anita. Night and day for most horses.

[ranchwest]

I think the difference is Hollywood vs Santa Anita. Night and day for most horses.

That plus not many horses run big back-to-back. The task for a handicapper is to catch a horse on the way up.

[fmolf]

That plus not many horses run big back-to-back. The task for a handicapper is to catch a horse on the way up.
Also odds are usually underlaid after a big race on the horse with the outstanding number.Handicappers just cannot help themselves.If i feel his big number is an anomaly i am likely to bet against this high figure horse,predicting a bounce.Especially if his figs next out are lower after every high fig race.I am not a sheets guy, just look at most horses pp's and you will see a pattern in most horses...big number....number lower than average fig....then return to normal fig...

[Stillriledup]

Even though this horse had a high Beyer fig in his longshot win, this was a much tougher race. He was also 'used' from the inside keeping up, where as in his last start, he was on his own because of the outside post. People who bet yesterday missed the wedding and went to the funeral.

[samyn on the green]

Make that four this decade. $223 winner on 02JAN09 race 6. (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/54622/223-winner-lights-up-aqueduct-tote-board) Biggest price at a NYRA track in years. What Im saying is, if you're looking to win at this endeavor, then 100-1 shots arent the way to go. For the last 45,000 races on the NYRA circuit, only 3 have won at 99-1 or more. The player has better ways to squander his time then lugging down that road.

[Robert Goren]

When I was in college I had $140 winner. The trainer told my dad that he thought it was going to win.I had $4 on it and went to 2 windows to bet. My dad went 4 windows to bet $20. In those days the tellers kept track of anyone who made a bet of any size on a long shot. If you caught a $40 horse and had $40 on it, the next time you bet $40 on a 20-1 shot it would be 5-1 in a minute or so. It was a different game in the 60s.

[First_Place]

At Hollywood Park on Sunday December 6th in the 4th race a 4yo gelding won the race and paid over $200 to win.

Does anyone see any reasons to use this horse?
The late, dearly-missed, Jerry Stokes said:

"When bringing a distance horse (router) back from a layoff, a trainer will usually but not always, run him 2 sprints and then out to a route. If he does not win the third race but finishes up-close, then watch for him to come back soon and he usually will win."

In this case, the fourth race wasn't necessary. :)

He also said:

"Horses with 2 RSL going at the proper distance and on the proper surface, are ALWAYS a threat to win, especially if coming back in the proper time, or having worked in the proper time, and coming back at the proper class or perhaps slightly lower. Horses with 3 RSL are also a threat, but not quite as much as those with 2 RSL. Again to press the point, horses on their 3rd or 4th race after a layoff and PROPERLY PLACED are always dangerous."

"Dangerous" indeed.

"I see a horse with a Trainer who is 1 for 37 in 2009

I see a horse with a jockey who is 0 for 28 at Hollywood Park"

Straight from the Pizzolla playbook! :)

In my case, I don't play to Win but would've certainly included the animal in my exotics combination based upon it being: a) an Jim Lehane "Profile Horse," b) Up-Close and Good/Even (last race) qualifying horse that exhibited "3 in 15" and "4 in 23" patterns along with 1.086 FPD as per The Secrets of Handicapping teachings and c) great workout patterns as per my definitions.

And lastly: PRICE. You can't lose (even if you lose the wager) by placing a bet on such a high odds horse; especially when it is chock full of angles!

FP

P.S. Thanks Li'l Joe! :)

[judd]

for all of you that utilize software programs--how was this horse rated ?

[OTM Al]

Make that four this decade. $223 winner on 02JAN09 race 6. (http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/54622/223-winner-lights-up-aqueduct-tote-board) Biggest price at a NYRA track in years.

I always believe Finger Lakes shippers are tougher than they look on paper when they come to NYRA tracks so I always give them an extra look. Unfortunately I bet on the other one of the 2 in that race :(