does rule's victory in the delta put him in the derby picture?

[bisket]

i for the most part don't put much weight to a victory earned on the front end with the fast early fractions, and slow late fractions. yeah the track was a bog, but it still doesn't prove the horse is worthy of a derby start. although the connections are all but garaunteed a spot with the earnings acheived last evening. the delta doesn't have any history of being a prep thats placed an in the money finisher in the derby anyhow, and i don't see it happening this year off that race. although its still early, and i don't think you could rule ;) the horse out just yet. heres a replay of the race.

http://www.drf.com/replays/savedreplays.jsp?RACE=359

[FenceBored]

i for the most part don't put much weight to a victory earned on the front end with the fast early fractions, and slow late fractions. yeah the track was a bog, but it still doesn't prove the horse is worthy of a derby start. although the connections are all but garaunteed a spot with the earnings acheived last evening. the delta doesn't have any history of being a prep thats placed an in the money finisher in the derby anyhow, and i don't see it happening this year off that race. although its still early, and i don't think you could rule ;) the horse out just yet. heres a replay of the race.

http://www.drf.com/replays/savedreplays.jsp?RACE=359

The cut off will be south of $200k. Rule (with his $450k share) has the money to be in the gate. Uh Oh Bango, with the $150k from Fri night and the $22,952 from the G3 Iroquois, has ~$173k and that should be good enough to get him in the Derby gate.

[bisket]

The cut off will be south of $200k. Rule (with his $450k share) has the money to be in the gate. Uh Oh Bango, with the $150k from Fri night and the $22,952 from the G3 Iroquois, has ~$173k and that should be good enough to get him in the Derby gate.
these two will most likely be a part of the 1 1/4 mile traffic jam that is the derby. add another 10 or so to these two that don't have a chance at victory. although last year proved its tough to make a statement like that when it comes to 3 year olds in may.

[cj]

Who would have guessed the winner of the 2009 Derby would prep in New Mexico. Never say never...

[OTM Al]

For the first couple years of graded status, this race's winner was an automatic throwout for me, but the last couple years I'm willing to pay a bit more attention. Perhaps because it's on dirt and the BC Juvie was not....

[bisket]

the track was sloppy. i'm not gonna cross him off the list just yet, but this race doesn't put him in the super yet either.

[abe]

Yes, he has the $ but I don't think he will stand up to the stiff competition on the trail this spring. Pletcher could hide him in a few allowance races and see how he fares. I don't think he will be in the gate and wouldn't put $ on him if he is. :cool:

[FlyinLate]

Yes, he has the $ but I don't think he will stand up to the stiff competition on the trail this spring. Pletcher could hide him in a few allowance races and see how he fares. I don't think he will be in the gate and wouldn't put $ on him if he is. :cool:

Don't forget about the owners though. When it comes down to it, it is they're decisions. Even if your horse is likely a 100-1 shot to win, MANY connections will send their horse in just for the chance to run and have a once in a lifetime experience (unless it is owned by a large stable with several contenders each yr). MTB's win doesnt help the cause of horses who don't belong showing up either.

As for Rule, we'll see. A sloppy race around a bull ring is tough to predict how he's going to run 5 months from now. I'm not completed discounting him, but as long as I recall I've never even used a Delta Jackpot horse in my super.

[Cat Thief]

I AM TRYING TO REMEMBER BUT WAS THIS THE TRACK WHERE BIG DRAMA AND MUSKRAT MAN AND ANOTHER RACED LAST YEAR?

[MNslappy]

West Side Bernie finished 2nd to Big Drama in the Jackpot last year

[bisket]

i still think drama is nice horse

[Rialto]

Rule's recent 2 turn performance shows he's game... he'll be a factor