Study I did on betting "Lone Speed" horses to place. Terrible ROI

[Zippy Chippy]

We all know saving money is as good as making money so about a year ago I decided to document all my wagers and see where im losing the most. I love betting lone speed horses and yesterday I finished a study ive been working on for nearly 10mos.

Here are the things i took into account

I documented all races that there was a clear lone speed horse in the race. By clear speed, i obviously mean this horse is going to go to the lead and its apparent that this most likely will happen. If there were 2 speed horses in the same race I did not count it.

The horse would have to be 10-1 or lower. I didn't include the race if it was a 30-1 lone speed. During my study these horses ranged from 1-5 to 10-1

I dind't necessarily bet on all of these races. In fact, i probably only wagered on approx 40% of the 1,000 races I documented. But if i noticed a race that matched this criteria I would document it.

I counted just about any track. Turf Paradise, Turfway, All NY tracks, Suffolk, All Cali tracks, Churchill, etc. No Harness.

These races are all distances between 5.5 F and 1.5 miles

The races all had atleast 6 runners (944 had atleast 7 runners)

Here is what i found:

Number of races:

1,000

Finishing Position

1st-159
2nd-57
3rd-99
4th-118
5th-144
6th-148
7th-101
8th thru 12th 174

The average winner (159 times)paid $10.46 and the average place (216 times) paid $4.97

Im sure you can all do the math, but if you were to be $2 win and $2 place on all 1000 races it would cost you $4000 and you would have gotten back. 1663 + 1073 for $2736 (-1266)

If you were to bet $4 to win every race you would have $3336 (-664)

Now, I know 1000 races isn't a huge sample size, but I was completely shocked too see these results. 2nd place is the least likely place for a lone speed horse to finish during my study. Im guessing it just comes down to if the horse gets the trip he wins, and if he doesn't he fades to worse than second, but i find it completely shocking that only 57 out of 1000 finished 2nd (5.7%).

The reason I did this study was because I noticed I was hardly ever going to the window to cash a ticket just to place, and i usually play $20 wp, so it was adding up. Well let me know what you think about this.

[illinoisbred]

Can or did you separate dirt vs synthetic and dirt vs turf?

[Zippy Chippy]

I actually started to do this, but didn't want to get too technical (i know it makes a difference)

Figured Id just send the results out and not break down every single track, surface, distance etc.

I will be back later and I can break it down more.

[HUSKER55]

THANKS FOR SHARING

I APPRECIATE IT.

:)

[LottaKash]

Did any of the 1,000 lone speed advantaged horses have a superior speed or (for me) more importantly, a "Pace" advantage ?....

That would be my first filter, for lone speed horses....I believe a lone speed horse without some supporting number(s) is useless...

best,

[kenwoodallpromos]

At least 994 races has 7 runners and lone speed at a certain length ahead produced 159 winners- that is IMO about random chance.
That with an animal who naturally runs 1/2 mile, and had no pressure timaintain speed. Makes sense.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

Lone speed on the poly is nowhere near as advantageous as on dirt tracks. And turf racing I believe falls somewhere in the middle.

[Zippy Chippy]

Glad this helped some people. I will try to give more insight to my study tomorrow.. I can also break it down by track

[Stillriledup]

If a speed gets 'hooked' and passed, he's likely to 'give up' and not hold 2nd.

[WinterTriangle]

The average winner (159 times)paid $10.46

I'd like to see this.

Considering the high number of players playing lone speed, I highly doubt the avg. payoff is $10.46

I was completely shocked too see these results. 2nd place is the least likely place for a lone speed horse to finish during my study.

That isn't shocking. There are a number of handicapping tutorials I've read from members here that if the speed horse doesn't get first they don't even hit the board.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Don't tell me about it.


My best score of the year was a 39-1 shot frontrunner,lone speed,and won by 7 lengths at Tampa Bay.


What's not to like about a horse that avoids traffic trouble and doesn't lose ground on the turns??!!!

[WinterTriangle]

Don't tell me about it.


My best score of the year was a 39-1 shot frontrunner,lone speed,and won by 7 lengths at Tampa Bay.


What's not to like about a horse that avoids traffic trouble and doesn't lose ground on the turns??!!!

My point asking about lone speed paying well is that almost *every* handicapping tutorial for beginners is betting lone speed to win.

In the case of the 39-1 shot, either handicappers didn't identify this horse as lone speed, or it was a huge field in a route or something?

[CincyHorseplayer]

My point asking about lone speed paying well is that almost *every* handicapping tutorial for beginners is betting lone speed to win.

In the case of the 39-1 shot, either handicappers didn't identify this horse as lone speed, or it was a huge field in a route or something?


Please don't sweat it WT.I don't want to lose my Oaklawn connection.!!


It's becoming rarer and rarer but still the lone speed horse is the best bet in racing.

[macdiarmida]

You included tracks that had front-speed-favoring biases for varying periods of time. And the failure of the frontunners to stay on for second is still that low. Wow.:eek:

Originally Posted by Horseplayersbet.com
Lone speed on the poly is nowhere near as advantageous as on dirt tracks. And turf racing I believe falls somewhere in the middle.
Sounds right to me FWIW.

Originally Posted by WinterTriangle
Considering the high number of players playing lone speed, I highly doubt the avg. payoff is $10.46
But the public doesn't seem to like lone speed on turf maybe because they've seen too many runaways run out of gas by the top of the stretch. That would pump up the average, not to mention a few like CincyHorseplayer's shot. Median might be a better measure of expected payout.

Plus there's a great love out there for playback on deep closers that have just missed (and miss most every time); Tejano Run comes to mind, nearly always well bet IIRC.

[46zilzal]

Lone speed works very well at many tracks: one just has to find those courses and take advantage. Lone speed based upon ENERGY DISTRIBUTION and not positional analysis.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Don't tell me about it.


My best score of the year was a 39-1 shot frontrunner,lone speed,and won by 7 lengths at Tampa Bay.


What's not to like about a horse that avoids traffic trouble and doesn't lose ground on the turns??!!!
If the horse was lone speed, why did so few players bet it? If it was so fast up front, why was it 39-1?

[Zippy Chippy]

If the horse was lone speed, why did so few players bet it? If it was so fast up front, why was it 39-1?

Theres nothing worse than seeing a huge bomb win the race and you look and he was the speed horse, and somehow held on to beat much better horses because he was walking for the 1st half mile.

[castaway01]

Theres nothing worse than seeing a huge bomb win the race and you look and he was the speed horse, and somehow held on to beat much better horses because he was walking for the 1st half mile.

I agree, and it does happen from time to time, especially with cheap horses. It's the "bad" horse that shows some speed and gets brave when alone on the lead that can still pay a price now and then---any talented lone speed horse is going to be 4-5.

[CincyHorseplayer]

If the horse was lone speed, why did so few players bet it? If it was so fast up front, why was it 39-1?


Don't overestimate the crowd.I make oddslines and I start slappin my toes together when my odds are completely antithetical to what is on the board.I might be Joe 30% hitter but when I'm right I tear reality apart.

[WinterTriangle]

speed horse, and somehow held on to beat much better horses because he was walking for the 1st half mile.

then you're not talking about lone speed. Lone speed "walking the first 1/2 mile"? That defies the very definition. Lone speed is a horse who likes to be on the front end by themselves. I don't think I've ever seen them "walk" the first 1/2 mile. Da'Tara in the Belmont. What Zensational does to Talkin to Mom Roo

If the horse was lone speed, why did so few players bet it? If it was so fast up front, why was it 39-1?

That was my question. Lone Speed Angle is the favorite beginner/weekender angle touted by every beginning handiapping tutorial. I see this angle bet down to chalk almost every day.

American Revolution at Churchill (11/09 I think). Went off at chalk. See this almost on a daily basis.

[salty]

Can you please put up the distances of the races with the track/surface?

I think the distance is a bigger factor than the surface of the race. And the place roi is probably horrible because lone speed horses are mostly overbet so the payoffs are diluted. I wonder if the show roi is better than the place?

thanks

[Zippy Chippy]

I can do all these but need til tomorrow. My notebook is at home. I didn't take note for the show payoffs,

[Jackal]

Zippy Chippy I think your data would more useful if you sorted it by track and surface.

I know you didn't include DED but it's a track I have been playing for at least 20 years. When they seal DED it's very difficult for a horse to close more than a few lengths. The closing horse has to be much the best to win on an off track.

The exact opposite happens when DED is drying. The LA river sand becomes muck. Mid-pack and dead closers start hitting at big prices.

Keep up the good work!

[John]

I can do all these but need til tomorrow. My notebook is at home. I didn't take note for the show payoffs,

How about the class of the lone speed horse.Most lone speed horses I see are droping down to where they are compeating with inferior competition.
...enter 4\5

Zippy Chippy, This is a good study. I await your findings.

:) :) :)

[BlueShoe]

Theres nothing worse than seeing a huge bomb win the race and you look and he was the speed horse, and somehow held on to beat much better horses because he was walking for the 1st half mile.
Want a recent example?Take a look at Sundays 4th at Hollypark.Five wide from post 11 into the turn of the 1 1/16 race,Rummysecret War took the lead after a quarter,set soft fractions and won and paid $216.40.That is not a typo,107-1.Caused a Pick 6 carryover for Wednesday.A couple of weeks ago there was another wire to wire bomb at Hol when a LosAl shipper paid $114 in a bottom level F & M sprint.And Hollywood is a plastic track,so go figure.

[cj]

I did a study of my database. First, I defined "Lone Speed". It was horses that had at least a two length edge in my own early speed rating. I ignored maidens since they would make early speed look better. I then used Quirin Speed Points of 5 or higher only. I wanted horses that had at least shown some desire to go to the front. I also ignored any horses I had labeled with an S (closer) or PS (presser/closer) running style.

This left about 20,000 qualifiers. They won at a 30% clip and returned about 96 cents per dollar bet. I then broke it down by surface. On synthetics, they won less at 26%, but returned more at 98 cents on the dollar. On dirt, they won 31% and returned 95 cents per dollar. Turf, 24% wins returned $1.03 per dollar bet.

I was surprised to find distance isn't a big factor. With the exception of synthetic/dirt routes (9f and up) and turf extend sprints (6.5 and 7f), there wasn't much change.

In my opinion, early speed is still very dangerous if you measure it well.

[Space Monkey]

Great info CJ. Thanks.

[macdiarmida]

Original Post by BlueShoe
Rummysecret War took the lead after a quarter, set soft fractions and won and paid $216.40.That is not a typo,107-1.Caused a Pick 6 carryover for Wednesday.A couple of weeks ago there was another wire to wire bomb
Another wire to wire bomb? You just wrote he took the lead after a quarter, and so he did, being a length back at the 1/4. If they lock the betting windows that late at wherever you play, I want to be there! Further, Rummy didn’t even look to be anything like lone speed in that race, either. Remember that Zippy Chippy’s study was based on races with lone speed per whatever he used. DRF? And he kept it within an odds range (10-1 or below).

Original Post by cj
Turf, 24% wins returned $1.03 per dollar bet
Clearly, y'all out there aren't betting your quota of turf front runners. An edge like that is pretty heady stuff, though some of you will undoubtedly scoff at +3%. And those tracks with 7 and 7.5F races that start near the turn probably have an even higher win % for front runners. And the unique SA 6.5F course gets really biased for long periods.

[John]

I did a study of my database. First, I defined "Lone Speed". It was horses that had at least a two length edge in my own early speed rating. I ignored maidens since they would make early speed look better. I then used Quirin Speed Points of 5 or higher only. I wanted horses that had at least shown some desire to go to the front. I also ignored any horses I had labeled with an S (closer) or PS (presser/closer) running style.

This left about 20,000 qualifiers. They won at a 30% clip and returned about 96 cents per dollar bet. I then broke it down by surface. On synthetics, they won less at 26%, but returned more at 98 cents on the dollar. On dirt, they won 31% and returned 95 cents per dollar. Turf, 24% wins returned $1.03 per dollar bet.

I was surprised to find distance isn't a big factor. With the exception of synthetic/dirt routes (9f and up) and turf extend sprints (6.5 and 7f), there wasn't much change.

In my opinion, early speed is still very dangerous if you measure it well.

CJ, in your study, did you look at class, Was the horse Droping or going up or staying at the same level. That is important.

:) :) :)

[BlueShoe]

You just wrote he took the lead after a quarter, and so he did, being a length back at the 1/4. If they lock the betting windows that late at wherever you play, I want to be there! Further, Rummy didn’t even look to be anything like lone speed in that race, either.
Pretty hard to get the lead from the #11 hole at 1 1/16,even after showing early speed in sprints.The only other speed,on paper,was the #5,Turkish Victory,or possibly the #9.TV appeared to be on a down form cycle,and had not run a good race in two months.A recent post on another thread made some good points as to why Rummy did not look all that bad and could have been played.For the record,I passed the race,too many question marks.

[cj]

CJ, in your study, did you look at class, Was the horse Droping or going up or staying at the same level. That is important.

:) :) :)

No, I did not.

[CBedo]

CJ, in your study, did you look at class, Was the horse Droping or going up or staying at the same level. That is important.

:) :) :)Judging my CJ's results, I'd say that assumption is questionable! ;)

[John]

Judging my CJ's results, I'd say that assumption is questionable! ;)


CBedo, Can you explain that a little better. What CJ results are you judging

thanks

:) :) :)

[CBedo]

CBedo, Can you explain that a little better. What CJ results are you judging

thanks

:) :) :)It was said somewhat tongue in cheek, a reference to the age old speed versus class discussion. In reality, I'd be interested to see those results as well. I'd guess that you'd get a higher hit rate, but a more than compensating negative drop in price as it seems the public over-loves class drops, but that's just a guess.

[cj]

Since my early speed rating isn't based on only one race, the question of whether the horse was moving up or down would be ambiguous at best. Just basing it on the last race class could be deceiving.

[John]

It was said somewhat tongue in cheek, a reference to the age old speed versus class discussion. In reality, I'd be interested to see those results as well. I'd guess that you'd get a higher hit rate, but a more than compensating negative drop in price as it seems the public over-loves class drops, but that's just a guess.

Cbedo, I understand your point, thank you.

My observations is that a class drop will show more early speed than he did in higher class races. CJ does a great job in distinguishing who will be the front runners with his early pace figures. I have seen his top early pace figure horse have no 1's or 2's in their last 3 races and win at good prices.The fact that he applies a pressure gage to his early pace numbers makes all the difference..

Zipppy - Chippy we are waiting.

:) :) :)

[bobphilo]

Zippy Chippy, I think your analysis illustrates a couple of important handicapping principles.

1) No handicapping factor alone, including lone early speed, shows a profit. By just looking at horses that figure to get an uncontested lead you are also including horses that are such poor finishers that that they failed to run well despite getting easy fractions in the past. If one goes a little further and limits oneself to horses who have been battling for the lead and now get an easier trip, chances improve considerably.

2) As Quirin found in his study, speed horses are better bets in the win slot (all or nothing types) and closers tend to do better with their in-the-money finishes in general.

Thanks for the study.

Bob

[John]

Zippy Chippy, I think your analysis illustrates a couple of important handicapping principles.

1) No handicapping factor alone, including lone early speed, shows a profit. By just looking at horses that figure to get an uncontested lead you are also including horses that are such poor finishers that that they failed to run well despite getting easy fractions in the past. If one goes a little further and limits oneself to horses who have been battling for the lead and now get an easier trip, chances improve considerably.
Bob

Right Bob, That is why I like CJ's early pace numbers. CJ, gives a better rating to those who were under presure to make the lead or hold on to the lead in the first part of the race.

:) :) :)