NY Thursday race 1

[Suff]

#5 Alarming Ruckus is an alarming Drop from Open Maiden Allowance to a 40K tag in NY. Has Gone twice for 50K at Fairgrounds. Theres alot more pockets with 40K in them at Belmont to buy this Colt. Surprising Drop because horse has some beyers that will compete on some Open Condition levels at Belmont. Got a great Post to work with in last and ran a decent race...Fell back late to fast fractions. 22.1 and they came home in 24.2. On paper it looks this Horse will Destroy this field. The Purse is only 18K. Can't see why they'll sell what looks like a Promising Colt for 50 Grand. Tough to use at tiny Number.

Prado up wanna makes me belief he's sound. But I can't. Too big a drop to. Can't imagine they'd have a hard time finding a MDSWPT field where a 75-85 would'nt make you a strong contender. Plus ...why not spot him in a 62.5 or 50K event. 40 is virtually the Bottom Rung at NY right now.....except for the infrequent MD25K's. Reasonable questions I think?

But.....if he's Fit. Watchout.

I agree with the Odds maker on #6 Four times a Ruler.(6-1) I can't see him running back to the 84.

#3 MakraRumba is coming off some real smokers,,,best of 48, 9th of 68, and best of 11 in The AM. I'd prefer to see what AM fractions he was working in 2002 before I bet this one off the works.

Reynolds is 10 for 30 In Maiden Claimers and that will But #4 GoldGloveKid (12-1) on a couple of my Tickets.

#9 Diablos Caper 20-1. Never underestimate the effect of the ONE post going 6 furlongs at NY. Its the Death Hole to anything other than LIGHTNING speed. He Moves Outside. Speed to clear. Chances of hanging are low....But what this horse does will determine who win. And his chances for landing on the ticket at a Number are vastly improved. Could IMprove 2nd off a short layoff, also coming out of a TOUGH Field. Mighty G gritty runner. (5-1 on the AE list) He was far back....But top three were 20 clear at one point. He got SINGED on the rail. Using.


#7 Won arm Bandit (6-1) will pick up the field if they all Chase Diablos Capper. Strong off the pace in last....Fast fractions his friend. If speed sticks.....gotta consider.


Gonna play off the Board using the 7-4-9-5....If any scratch ,,If the 14 Real Hot gets in off the AE will be a play as well.

[hurrikane]

Nice analysis Suff,

curious why you dumped the 11. Pletcher has been very good at Bel(28%), Mcl(37%) and puts up Velasquez(28%), 2nd start, 2nd Lasix, drop(though MSW at MTH to BEL cl40 is not really a drop per se). Seems like a Pletcher move.

Was it solely on his last finish that he gets the boot?

[hurrikane]

never mind Suff.
I'm guessing they won't let you bet em if they're scratched. :rolleyes:

[Suff]

I tossed him Before scratch.

Why? Deecent rush up after bad break, But they came home in 26 and 28.2 to wich he lost 5 lengths. Weak debut Number of 47 for Pletcher firster. Monmouth Debut 4 weeks ago has ?? all over it. First of which is Why? Pletcher 100K horse was a Luke warm 3rd choice at almost 4-1. I look at them......when they have only One race... and I need to smell a certain smell to get interested in them. This one will be way Over bet...and Nothing besides the Connections gets me interested.

The 5 is running as you see....opened at EVEN money. Gonna Give this race another long look.

[cj]

I think the 6 is real dangerous here. Its easy to dismiss a horse off of one big number, but this one has some +s. I think the new trainer appeared to find this one's whole card after that first race under her care, and the horse has had almost a month to recover from the effort. Couple decent works since as well.

CJ

[WINMANWIN]

Little late now but, I noticed the improved works with the 3 in the 1st and once I heard 1st time gelding, I had to include in exacta
bets......The steed did cost 170k for shossberg's mother I believe, and was dropping, The price was right 26 to 1. Guess, My point is, Listen to webcast of announced changes, and at times, Jan
Rushton can give some valid info with 1sters, and trainers intentions........

[Suff]

Whataruckass was all That huh? And true enough....Claimed by Hushion for the 40 grand. 11 Grand purse and they're out of what looks to me like a steady checker earner. I'd like to know the Real reason they ran that Horse in this spot. Watch that Claim.

[Suff]

Win....I brought up the 3 in My post. But I've seen to many horses that run FAST in the AM, then have nothing in the PM.

This is why it helps to have all kinds of Horses on Horse watch. If I had that Horse in my Stable I could have easily gone in and seen his 2002 works to see if they matched up or he was LIVE.

Oh well...Live and learn. Played a Decent double to the 1 in the 2nd that could get me whole if the 1 runs a race.

[cj]

Race 2---This 7 just doesn't look right...after a NW1 score, they immediately gave him away. Has steadily descended until he caught a real bad field last out, and doesn't even move back up. He could win, but he's damaged goods.

Don't really love anyone in here, but I'll be betting the 1 at around 4-1.

CJ

[cj]

Damn, when I'm wrong, I'm REALLY wrong, that horse looked like the next coming of Slew!

CJ

[Suff]

lol. Yea he ran.......big. I played the 1A who he toyed with.

[WINMANWIN]

o.k. Gents the 1st 2 races are history on to the 3rd.......
I think the 1 or 2 both at o.k. prices may make the exacta here.....
gonna hook them up with the faves to sepearte the 2 chalks the 4 and 5 in ex's.....

[WINMANWIN]

Originally posted by WINMANWIN
o.k. Gents the 1st 2 races are history on to the 3rd.......
I think the 1 or 2 both at o.k. prices may make the exacta here.....
gonna hook them up with the faves to sepearte the 2 chalks the 4 and 5 in ex's.....

On second thought, This race appears to be speed filled somewhat and I think the 5 may have an adavatge here.The 1 and 2 may duel, with the 4 here.......The 3 I find interesting also
beaten fave at 50k and now dropping also, with apprentice up
Tuff or what these 5 steed fields.....:confused: So, Im hoping the 5 closes some here and gonna use with the 1 2 and 3.....

[redsok221]

I wqould put my money on the 2 to win i would bet it kinda heavy

[WINMANWIN]

Originally posted by WINMANWIN
On second thought, This race appears to be speed filled somewhat and I think the 5 may have an adavatge here.The 1 and 2 may duel, with the 4 here.......The 3 I find interesting also
beaten fave at 50k and now dropping also, with apprentice up
Tuff or what these 5 steed fields.....:confused: So, Im hoping the 5 closes some here and gonna use with the 1 2 and 3.....


I should have quit after the 1st race exacta......unreal.....
The 4 wins the speed duel and all, And I second guess myself and key the wrong fave.......:mad: I had it right initially........
Well The mig ran a nice race in the 3rd, and I like the shossberg steed in the 4th also.The 13 goes turf to dirt should be chalk city probably and this 7, The sciacca Steed back to work may have a decent run in him, after the freshining..Think I'll key them 2....
Watch sea squirrel in the 7th another sciacca steed who may run well off bench also.

[redsok221]

I am sticking with my coices that i posted on my thread.

That is the exacta box with the 13 and 6 and the trifecta box with the 13,6, and the 4 and if the 13 gives any decent odds i a,m saying this is his race and i am going to bet him heavy

[WINMANWIN]

The sciacca steed prevailed gamely, I may add BACK TO WORK
and completed a nice exacta with the 3/5 shot the # 13 there.
Sox fan we had tripled nailed..........;) Anyway 5th is 4 steed race
Im playing the 6th....Sell the rallies is Jerry Baileys only mount of the day today, I believe.He appears to be formidible, but board
will be contentious in this Race. I also like the # 4 STOIC,
he gets juice today and made a nice move last race. The
distance may be to short, but i have to key these 2 in exacta bets

[WINMANWIN]

Originally posted by WINMANWIN
The sciacca steed prevailed gamely, I may add BACK TO WORK
and completed a nice exacta with the 3/5 shot the # 13 there.
Sox fan we had tripled nailed..........;) Anyway 5th is 4 steed race
Im playing the 6th....Sell the rallies is Jerry Baileys only mount of the day today, I believe.He appears to be formidible, but board
will be contentious in this Race. I also like the # 4 STOIC,
he gets juice today and made a nice move last race. The
distance may be to short, but i have to key these 2 in exacta bets

The 2 best steeds prevailed in this race. Stoic appears to be a nice horse, and Sell The Rallies broke last and made a bold move to get 2nd, here. Curious to see how Stoic runs in his next
condition. Sell The Rallies will be ODDS on next outing, and with that TRIP he should.