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dansan
12-02-2009, 10:38 PM
does any just play show bets or place guy at my otb site says all he plays is horses to place never to win

Jeff P
12-03-2009, 12:57 AM
Let's look at some data....

query start: 12/2/2009 9:32:18 PM
query end: 12/2/2009 9:32:26 PM
elapsed time: 8 seconds

Data Window Settings:
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None

SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
WHERE RANKQRATING = 1
AND EBETTORSTOTEPROB >= 1.05


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 12825.00 11783.40 11726.10
Bet -12690.00 -12690.00 -12690.00
Gain 135.00 -906.60 -963.90

Wins 1104 2088 2996
Plays 6345 6345 6345
PCT .1740 .3291 .4722

ROI 1.0106 0.9286 0.9240
Avg Mut 11.62 5.64 3.91

The above results are from a very simple User Defined Model (UDM) run through a JCapper database. The database contains just over 40k races, about 336k starters in all, spanning the past 18 months.

The model produced one qualified play about every 6.4 races.

The above results are typical in the following facet... which holds true for results from just about every worthwhile model that I have everr looked at:

When you break the results out into 3 separate columns... WIN... PLACE... and SHOW...

And add up the mutuel payoffs from each of the columns to arrive at total return for the individual column... the total amount returned from win bets is greater than the total return for place... which is in turn greater than the total return for show.

Like I said, this facet of data sample results holds true for just about every model I have ever looked at...

Meaning?

When dealiong with straight bets... WPS... If you want to maximize returns...

Back your horse to win its race.



What about the exceptions?

The lone category of exceptions to the above return distribution are horses that go to post at very low odds... favorites and near favorites.

When dealing with data samples involving low odds horses... total returns for the place and show columns almost always outperform returns from the win column.

There's one other category of exception that I am aware of where returns for show (and sometimes place) outperform returns for win... and that exception has to do with betting against bridge jumper situations.


-jp

.

Stillriledup
12-03-2009, 01:06 AM
I play show against horses with large show bets if i think the show bettor is betting on a horse who i don't think is a sure thing to finish 3rd or better.

elksclub
12-05-2009, 09:17 AM
You're kidding...right?

Robert Goren
12-05-2009, 09:24 AM
Trotter's contest has got me looking at show parlays. It is beginning to appear to me that maybe some favorites or near favorites who are way out of line in the show pool.

BELMONT 6-6-09
12-05-2009, 09:56 AM
Show is a 'no go'! You are simply spinning your wheels until the inevitable losing streak wipes out whatever small profit you have accumulated.

njcurveball
12-05-2009, 10:05 AM
It really depends on what side of the coin you are looking at.

If you want to minimize losses, play short priced horses to place and show. It also gives people a psychological edge. And an added thrill of cashing three bets in a race when their horse wins.

Many have suggested over the years win and place. Or 2 units place to 1 win. Or across the board or using 1 unit win, 2 units place, 3 units show. Free advice was well worth the price as many losers wound up losing less.

With todays "exotic world" less and less public money finds it way into the place and show pools. For anyone over 40, think of your first time at the track. Most will say their first bet was place or show. Some graduated to across the board betting.

Fast forward to today when most of the public money goes into wild exotics and if they have a few bucks left, there are dime supers to be played. Contrast that to the show pool where insiders have access to the latest flashes and are constantly back-filling low priced overlays.

Nothing is 100% in this game, but a steady diet of place and show betting will generally minimize both losses and profits. I have seen people make profits by betting certain outrider ponies, so anything is possible.

melman
12-05-2009, 10:22 AM
NJCurveball--Something else to consider. If your making show bets on tracks other than ones in New York State or Canada your also getting screwed with dime breakage. That's a MUCH bigger factor than many stop to consider. However each to his own as u say. I consider the show parlay mostly an illusion. With the show parlay u are subjecting yourself to the takeout and the dime breakage each and every time u bet. At least with the pic3/4 you are subject to the takeout only one time.

headhawg
12-05-2009, 10:33 AM
I can't believe that anyone even considers show bets. I always thought of it as a "scared money" action bet. Unless you are going to bet lots on a mortal lock :rolleyes: (and even then you have to consider the point made by melman), you are much better off in the long run to save the money wagered and look for a better opportunity in a different race.

And if one can't find better opportunities then perhaps a different wagering game should be considered.

misscashalot
12-05-2009, 10:44 AM
I can't believe that anyone even considers show bets. I always thought of it as a "scared money" action bet. Unless you are going to bet lots on a mortal lock :rolleyes: (and even then you have to consider the point made by melman), you are much better off in the long run to save the money wagered and look for a better opportunity in a different race.

And if one can't find better opportunities then perhaps a different wagering game should be considered.

:ThmbUp:

dansan
12-05-2009, 11:43 AM
all you need is a 3.00 payoff to make 50% back on your investment surely most of you guys can do that ?

Bochall
12-05-2009, 12:39 PM
I think its better to key your horse 2nd and 3rd in tris rather than a straight show bet. Esp if the odds are long. If i have a single in the last leg of a P3/P4 i usually key my selection underneath in exotics...not a place or show bet. Ofcourse i have leverage at that point. The response here is pretty solid against show betting, and i agree.

showbet
12-05-2009, 03:21 PM
does any just play show bets or place
Nearly 93% of my wagers over the past 23 months have been show wagers.

What about the exceptions?

The lone category of exceptions to the above return distribution are horses that go to post at very low odds... favorites and near favorites.

When dealing with data samples involving low odds horses... total returns for the place and show columns almost always outperform returns from the win column.

There's one other category of exception that I am aware of where returns for show (and sometimes place) outperform returns for win... and that exception has to do with betting against bridge jumper situations.

Those are the types of show wagers I make.

kenwoodallpromos
12-05-2009, 03:47 PM
Consistency always in current race types is the key.

Tom
12-05-2009, 05:12 PM
Nothing more personal than how one wagers.
The only criteria than need be met is did the better achieve his goal.
No one else's goal matters.

Steve 'StatMan'
12-05-2009, 08:34 PM
I know show betting doesn't work well for me, because my style of handicapping normally yields about 30% Win, 20% Place, 13% Show, so for me, I'm going to lose a lot of show bets and the winners tend not to produce enough of a price to bet to win, let alone to show, and the smaller payouts.

However, it depends on your style of selections and wagering, if your horses run in the lower spots at a good enough price to make it worth your while, then it may be worth it. I do think the under spots in the Exa and Tris might the more profitable way to go as long as you have good key horses - can't hit the exactas and trifectas if you have problems with the top slot (or any of the slots.)

CBedo
12-05-2009, 09:22 PM
I can't believe that anyone even considers show bets.The automated model that I've been playing with that has shown about a 6% return so far (just under 1000 bets) does not show a postive return in the place or show hole, but further study has shown that many of the bets I'm passing to win because of the value not being there are marginally profitable to show (not place). The small amount of work I've done is somewhat interesting in that the lower odds horses seem to be possible show bets but poor bets underneath in the exacta, the higher odds horses seem to be very negative to show, but possibly positive as underneath exacta keys, and the odds range in the middle isn't good for either.

Pell Mell
12-05-2009, 09:40 PM
It all depends on the type of handicapper you are.

I spot play long shots and my place % is more than double my win %. I don't even look at show.

With my high % of place bets I do a lot of back wheeling in exactas, and I mean wheeling because when you are playing a 20-30/1 shot I found I got burned too many times when I try to part wheel exactas.

However, my long term profits from the last 30 yrs. or so have been from a conservative stance. I find that with my style, 1 unit to win and 3 units to place serves me best. But that's just my way.;)

Cratos
12-05-2009, 09:55 PM
Let's look at some data....

query start: 12/2/2009 9:32:18 PM
query end: 12/2/2009 9:32:26 PM
elapsed time: 8 seconds

Data Window Settings:
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None

SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY
WHERE RANKQRATING = 1
AND EBETTORSTOTEPROB >= 1.05


Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 12825.00 11783.40 11726.10
Bet -12690.00 -12690.00 -12690.00
Gain 135.00 -906.60 -963.90

Wins 1104 2088 2996
Plays 6345 6345 6345
PCT .1740 .3291 .4722

ROI 1.0106 0.9286 0.9240
Avg Mut 11.62 5.64 3.91

The above results are from a very simple User Defined Model (UDM) run through a JCapper database. The database contains just over 40k races, about 336k starters in all, spanning the past 18 months.

The model produced one qualified play about every 6.4 races.

The above results are typical in the following facet... which holds true for results from just about every worthwhile model that I have everr looked at:

When you break the results out into 3 separate columns... WIN... PLACE... and SHOW...

And add up the mutuel payoffs from each of the columns to arrive at total return for the individual column... the total amount returned from win bets is greater than the total return for place... which is in turn greater than the total return for show.

Like I said, this facet of data sample results holds true for just about every model I have ever looked at...

Meaning?

When dealiong with straight bets... WPS... If you want to maximize returns...

Back your horse to win its race.



What about the exceptions?

The lone category of exceptions to the above return distribution are horses that go to post at very low odds... favorites and near favorites.

When dealing with data samples involving low odds horses... total returns for the place and show columns almost always outperform returns from the win column.

There's one other category of exception that I am aware of where returns for show (and sometimes place) outperform returns for win... and that exception has to do with betting against bridge jumper situations.


-jp

.

I believe your analysis to be correct with the following exception and that is dominant performers (e.g. Rachel Alexandra, Dr. Fager, Zenyatta, Personal Ensign, etc.)

I know bettors who wagered on one or more of the above horses laying dollars at the K-level and walked away very happy because their objective was to beat the current interest rate and not pay taxes.

WinterTriangle
12-06-2009, 03:20 AM
The type of wagering one does should depend on the race.

I play show bets occasionally and "selectively".

If I have a 3-5 "winner", versus a 30-1 or 60-1 horse I am confident is going to hit for 3rd, I play the show wager. There are unique situations where my show wager pays 5x what the win wager pays.

If I *see* the exacta, and I'm a win bettor, I'm gonna play the exacta. While everyone is betting the "dropping in class" angle that is chalk, if I find a race where a horse is stepping up in class for a trainer I think is great at finding "just" the right conditions for their runners, I get the $30 win instead of the $2.80 win.

Unless you are wildly successful, doing anything "the same ol' way" every time is not a box I want to be in.

Stumblefoot
12-06-2009, 12:55 PM
I bet show bets only and do quite well at it....Yesterday had 5 bets and 4 won paying 11.00...6.20...4.00 and 4.10..My bets are all 10-1 or higher on morning line

Jeff P
12-07-2009, 11:39 AM
posted by Cratos: I believe your analysis to be correct with the following exception and that is dominant performers (e.g. Rachel Alexandra, Dr. Fager, Zenyatta, Personal Ensign, etc.)

I know bettors who wagered on one or more of the above horses laying dollars at the K-level and walked away very happy because their objective was to beat the current interest rate and not pay taxes.

Agreed.

Apparently even the exceptions have exceptions! :D

I freely admit it... I actually bet against Zenyatta in the show pool several times this past year. It's not like I got crushed each time when she ran her race... The other contenders I used in the show pool ran their races too... It's just that they finished behind Zenyatta and I didn't get the big payday I was shooting for.

Overall, records kept indicate the strategy of show betting against horses with more than about 70% of the entire show pool riding on them can be a rewarding endeavor... Point well taken that the strategy could be further improved if the player can somehow avoid races with horses like Zenyatta in them.


-jp

.

Jeff P
12-07-2009, 12:05 PM
The type of wagering one does should depend on the race.

I play show bets occasionally and "selectively".

If I have a 3-5 "winner", versus a 30-1 or 60-1 horse I am confident is going to hit for 3rd, I play the show wager. There are unique situations where my show wager pays 5x what the win wager pays.

If I *see* the exacta, and I'm a win bettor, I'm gonna play the exacta. While everyone is betting the "dropping in class" angle that is chalk, if I find a race where a horse is stepping up in class for a trainer I think is great at finding "just" the right conditions for their runners, I get the $30 win instead of the $2.80 win.

Unless you are wildly successful, doing anything "the same ol' way" every time is not a box I want to be in.

Ahh... therein lies the philosophical differences between players...

The UDM that I posted uses only two factors... and in a sense actually does look at the race... or at least the way the public is betting the race.

Ed Thorp might describe that UDM as a Stat Arb Model... hint: Google the name Ed Thorp and the phrase Statistical Arbitrage for some interesting reading.

I went to a Stat Arb Model approach years ago because I wanted to be able to create methods of playing that not only worked.... but were 100% repeatable as well.

I wanted to make things so that the player handicapping races today would reach the same decisions if he were to sit down and re-handicap the same races a month later.

In other words consistency... the same decisions every time the same races are handicapped.

Not saying one way is right and the other is wrong... Every player has to find what works for him... or her.


-jp

.

mannyberrios
12-09-2009, 11:13 AM
Nothing more personal than how one wagers.
The only criteria than need be met is did the better achieve his goal.
No one else's goal matters.:1: Yes Sir

ranchwest
12-12-2009, 12:44 AM
I bet show bets only and do quite well at it....Yesterday had 5 bets and 4 won paying 11.00...6.20...4.00 and 4.10..My bets are all 10-1 or higher on morning line

I'd rather have an 11.00 show winner than an 11.00 win winner because the show can cash on 3 positions.

Today I hit 8 of 11 show wagers with a $2 payout of $36.80 total. I'll take 1.67 ROI.

Tom
12-12-2009, 10:28 AM
I always ( most always) look to see if a horse I like has a possible gift in the place or show holes. Sometine, the pace set up makes it really likely a good price horse will get up for show and pay $10, but he has no real shot to win. I should take a 2-1 overlay and pas this up? No one ever asks where the money comes from when you spend it, other the the DEA.

Track Collector
12-12-2009, 05:07 PM
Today I hit 8 of 11 show wagers with a $2 payout of $36.80 total. I'll take 1.67 ROI.

Congratulations or an excellent day!

I tend to take a long-term view of results, and inquiring minds would be interested in knowing the following:
(a) How long have you been using this show selection method?
(b) What is the average number of plays per month?
(c) What is your year-to-date (pre-rebate) ROI since you started this play?
(b) What is your typical wager size? This question is not made to be nosy about your wagering activity level, but rather to understand how much pool dilution is involved.

Please note that none of the questions above relate to what criteria you use to SELECT a horse, as that is personal and none of our business, but instead involve the wagering "mechanics".

strapper
01-05-2010, 01:36 PM
People are fast to jump on the show betters but I say to each his own. Anytime you cash it's good. I realize you have to hit at a phenomenal rate to win betting show but it can be done. Not everyone's cup of tea but all things considered I would lay my money on the turtles of the game than the rabbits.

lamboguy
01-05-2010, 01:57 PM
was RACHEL such a bad bet against shoW? i don't think it was such a bad move in the woodward. if she got challenged earlier she wouold have been off the board and you will have collected. BIG BROWN was a great bet against all 3 tripple crown races due to the way he runs on the pace. some of these horses can be great win bets and poor show bets coming in for minus pools. yet we all know that minus pool betting is one of the few ways one can beat the races. i don't suggest you bet minus pools unless you are real good at them. youhave groups out there that are strickly minus pool bettors and hedgers and they win even when you see the horse with the money go down.

miesque
01-05-2010, 02:29 PM
Personally I have less then no interest in the show bet. That said, if other people love show betting and its their primariy focus, more power to them. We simply coexist on completely different pari-mutuel planes.

misscashalot
01-05-2010, 02:51 PM
was RACHEL such a bad bet against shoW? .

For a serious bettor, show in no. Pool is about 15% of the win. How much can you push thru before youre getting pennies to the dollar. For casual bettors Show is Ok.

andymays
01-05-2010, 02:52 PM
I can see taking a shot at a show bet when you think a 1-5 shot will run out or if you like a 30 or 60-1 shot and betting that one WPS.

Other than those circumstances playing a show parlay or a combination of WPS parlays can be fun to put together.

Years ago I played a 6 horse parlay for $50 with one race to win a two races to place and a three races to show and got back over 6k. It happens!

Charli125
01-05-2010, 03:22 PM
It's not something I brag about, as it's certainly not sexy, but I do a pretty good amount of show betting. I have no idea how anyone gets a 1.67 ROI with show betting, as mine is right around 1.04, but with a decent rebate, I can be making 8-12 cents on the dollar.

I do it for several reasons, and in several different situations.

Reasons:


Creates churn in my account which helps me get rebates.
With rebates I can actually be profitable.
Forces me to pay attention to a race that I normally wouldn't bet.
Situations:

When there is a strong, legitimate favorite that doesn't offer value in the win pool(I have a spreadsheet that shows the inefficiencies in the show pool in relation to the win pool).
When there is a longshot that doesn't have a chance to beat the favorite, but I have them finishing in the money.
When there is a coupled entry that I think will both finish in the money.
And the most rare situation for me is when there is a heavy favorite that I don't think will finish in the money.(this is likely the most profitable, but I rarely find this situation)

Stillriledup
01-05-2010, 03:23 PM
I can see taking a shot at a show bet when you think a 1-5 shot will run out or if you like a 30 or 60-1 shot and betting that one WPS.

Other than those circumstances playing a show parlay or a combination of WPS parlays can be fun to put together.

Years ago I played a 6 horse parlay for $50 with one race to win a two races to place and a three races to show and got back over 6k. It happens!

The key to exploiting a show bet is to hope the big show bettor plunges right as the race starts and doesn't 'tip his hand' early. IF that show bet shows up, people start betting thousands into the pools and makes the gamble less attractive.

castaway01
01-05-2010, 04:56 PM
It's not something I brag about, as it's certainly not sexy, but I do a pretty good amount of show betting. I have no idea how anyone gets a 1.67 ROI with show betting, as mine is right around 1.04, but with a decent rebate, I can be making 8-12 cents on the dollar.

I do it for several reasons, and in several different situations.

Reasons:


Creates churn in my account which helps me get rebates.
With rebates I can actually be profitable.
Forces me to pay attention to a race that I normally wouldn't bet.
Situations:

When there is a strong, legitimate favorite that doesn't offer value in the win pool(I have a spreadsheet that shows the inefficiencies in the show pool in relation to the win pool).
When there is a longshot that doesn't have a chance to beat the favorite, but I have them finishing in the money.
When there is a coupled entry that I think will both finish in the money.
And the most rare situation for me is when there is a heavy favorite that I don't think will finish in the money.(this is likely the most profitable, but I rarely find this situation)


Charli, any profit is nice in this game. If it works for you, go for it.

letswastemoney
01-05-2010, 08:45 PM
I think it's better to key the horse you like on top

Then use him underneath in "saver" bets, that way you won't lose money

For example....

I may like the 6 horse

so I'll play 6/2,3,4 etc possibly with various amounts of each combination depending on the odds.

maybe

$10 6/2
$5 6/3
$3 6/4

But I'll also 2,3,4/6 at a smaller amount just to "save" myself in case the 6 loses

$2 2/6
$1 3/6
$1 4/6

I'd have to completely believe the 6 is a "lock" though and can finish no worse than second. But saver bets are better than show bets I think

fmolf
01-05-2010, 10:33 PM
You can make money betting to show but you need to apply the strictest of rules and exploit the inefficiencies in the place and show pool.when i wager seriously i use the Dr Z. method using % of the total pool size so if a contender has 20% of the win pool but only 10% of the place or show pool i will make a wager into these pools.This method is time consuming and you need a calculator if at the track.When betting from home i use bris toteboard with the % of pools feature.With so much late money coming in after the race has begun it is hard to guarantee that the bet you make will still be an overlay when all is said and done!

ranchwest
01-05-2010, 11:51 PM
Congratulations or an excellent day!

I tend to take a long-term view of results, and inquiring minds would be interested in knowing the following:
(a) How long have you been using this show selection method?
(b) What is the average number of plays per month?
(c) What is your year-to-date (pre-rebate) ROI since you started this play?
(b) What is your typical wager size? This question is not made to be nosy about your wagering activity level, but rather to understand how much pool dilution is involved.

Please note that none of the questions above relate to what criteria you use to SELECT a horse, as that is personal and none of our business, but instead involve the wagering "mechanics".

I'll just answer by saying that some horses are rotten win bets and great show bets.

Track Collector
01-07-2010, 01:51 AM
I'll just answer by saying that some horses are rotten win bets and great show bets.

Yes, but tell us about your long-term ROI with this specialized show wager. We already know you had one great day that achieved a 1.67 ROI.

ranchwest
01-07-2010, 03:13 PM
Yes, but tell us about your long-term ROI with this specialized show wager. We already know you had one great day that achieved a 1.67 ROI.

Is this thread about me? I think not.

Grits
01-07-2010, 11:19 PM
Noting trainer's habits and who is doing well--when and where (past and present meets) can be a profitable thing.

Only playing Aqueduct or Gulfstream this time of year, there's little downside when I look at today's results at GP and see:

1st race: Edwin Broome running 3rd in a 10k at 33/1 = $16.60 to show

3rd race: Bill White running 3rd in a 75k at 43/1 = $17.40 to show

6th race: Eddie Plesa running 3rd in a 50k at 45/1 = $15.60 to show

A $20 investment on each of these might have been pretty good. No?

I can't find a great deal of fault in placing well thought out show bets. Certainly not all over the country, not blindly, not every day. Still, knowing trainers and circuits well, show betting doesn't appear whimsical or foolish when opportunities such as these arise. And I couldn't put down anyone for playing them, myself included.

As a HANA member shared with me, "the game's about making money--not always about how one makes one's money--just making money."

Pretty good observation.

Track Collector
01-08-2010, 02:32 AM
Is this thread about me? I think not.

This thread is about SHOW betting and my questions to you were in regard to long-term results about SHOW betting. Other than boasting of a day's accomplishment, do you have anything else you want to share that might benefit others regarding this topic?

Listed below are some of my thoughts in regard to show wagering.

Do I believe that one make a profit with show wagers? Yes.
What is the maximum ROI one can achieve over the long run with show wagers? It varies based on selection criteria and your level of selectivity. Even then, I can almost guarantee you that no one can average an ROI of 1.67 over the long run betting to show if their methodology identifies an average of 11 plays per day. In fact, I would be totally amazed if someone could even average 1.20 ROI with this high number of daily plays. (NOTE: All ROI's listed are pre-rebate.)

My opinion is supported in part by a database of over 370,000 races going back to December of 2001. In this database I can study the ROI results of various factors (currently over 30) in combination with each other. I have attempted to identify some profitable show plays which require a balancing of various ROI levels (due to the different factor combinations) with available number of plays. One such factor combination yields 1533 plays per year at an ROI of 1.01. I can perhaps increase this ROI by another 2% or 3% if I am willing to reduce the number of yearly plays by 1/2 or 2/3. I may even be able to achieve an ROI of 1.20 if I'm willing to reduce the number of available plays to something like 30 per year, but what kind of total money can I make with so few number of plays? No very much! I know that there are some sharpies out there who have bettor selection/prediction tools that I have, and they may be able to get an additional few percent to the ROI. By the way, I currently do NOT employ any type of show wagering in my handicapping endeavors.

In summary, do not hold on to unrealistic profit and/or ROI expectations when it comes to show wagering. Also, if you want higher ROIs it will come at the expense of lesser plays and perhaps less total winnings.

ranchwest
01-08-2010, 09:08 PM
This thread is about SHOW betting and my questions to you were in regard to long-term results about SHOW betting. Other than boasting of a day's accomplishment, do you have anything else you want to share that might benefit others regarding this topic?

Listed below are some of my thoughts in regard to show wagering.

Do I believe that one make a profit with show wagers? Yes.
What is the maximum ROI one can achieve over the long run with show wagers? It varies based on selection criteria and your level of selectivity. Even then, I can almost guarantee you that no one can average an ROI of 1.67 over the long run betting to show if their methodology identifies an average of 11 plays per day. In fact, I would be totally amazed if someone could even average 1.20 ROI with this high number of daily plays. (NOTE: All ROI's listed are pre-rebate.)

My opinion is supported in part by a database of over 370,000 races going back to December of 2001. In this database I can study the ROI results of various factors (currently over 30) in combination with each other. I have attempted to identify some profitable show plays which require a balancing of various ROI levels (due to the different factor combinations) with available number of plays. One such factor combination yields 1533 plays per year at an ROI of 1.01. I can perhaps increase this ROI by another 2% or 3% if I am willing to reduce the number of yearly plays by 1/2 or 2/3. I may even be able to achieve an ROI of 1.20 if I'm willing to reduce the number of available plays to something like 30 per year, but what kind of total money can I make with so few number of plays? No very much! I know that there are some sharpies out there who have bettor selection/prediction tools that I have, and they may be able to get an additional few percent to the ROI. By the way, I currently do NOT employ any type of show wagering in my handicapping endeavors.

In summary, do not hold on to unrealistic profit and/or ROI expectations when it comes to show wagering. Also, if you want higher ROIs it will come at the expense of lesser plays and perhaps less total winnings.

One problem here is that you are assuming that both you and I have to have some specific system and that ROI must be tied to that system. I'm not bound by your rules or expectations.

I'm not trying to suggest that it is likely for anyone to have a long-term ROI of 1.67 on show wagers. However, that doesn't mean that it is impossible. What is possible is what is achieved day-by-day. Every nice payout is a possibility.

Track Collector
01-08-2010, 11:41 PM
One problem here is that you are assuming that both you and I have to have some specific system and that ROI must be tied to that system. I'm not bound by your rules or expectations.
No, I did not make that assumption, and I gave you a chance to tell us about your achievements with regard to ROI. You have declined multiple requests.

I'm not trying to suggest that it is likely for anyone to have a long-term ROI of 1.67 on show wagers. However, that doesn't mean that it is impossible. What is possible is what is achieved day-by-day. Every nice payout is a possibility.

What is possible in practice is significantly less than in theory. All games seem to have a limit that have been reached by the most skilled players. Some examples without the specific data:
-- In baseball, some player has established the highest single-season batting average.
-- In basketball, some player has established the highest single-season free throw percentage.
-- In horseracing, some horse has set the fastest time in a 6f race on dirt.

Records will be broken by future competitors, but the new records will be improved upon by very small margins, and not by factors such as 25%. This would seem to suggest that there are some sort of upper limits, even if we can not calculate what those specific limit values are.

Show ROIs too are subject to some type of upper limits, even if we can not determine them. In other efforts, statistics are often known and easily verified. In horseracing where some may not tell the truth, and some winning players wish to remain under the radar, we will never be able to get a good handle on what the best achievable ROIs are with regard to show betting. By the way, when we talk about show ROIs, we must always consider how may plays they are based on, as one affects and impacts the other.

You may have the final response.

Cholly
01-09-2010, 11:09 AM
does any just play show bets or place guy at my otb site says all he plays is horses to place never to win

A few years ago I was determined to master the art of show betting. Despite the investment of a great deal of time (& $), I was unsuccessful…but I did learn a couple of things about it.

The first is that show betting requires a great deal of fortitude (a/k/a “balls”). Unlike the exotic merry-go-rounds where you can “bet a little to win a lot”, in show betting if you want to win a lot you have to bet a WHOLE lot. Friends at the simo where I hung often chided me with “Where’s the excitement in a $2.80 payoff?” But if anyone doesn’t find show betting exciting, it’s because they’re not betting enough. Keep raising the size of your bet until you can audibly hear the sound of your heartbeat—then tell me that there’s no excitement in show bets.

The other thing is that show betting is infinitely more complex than win or exacta betting. Done properly, you have to adroitly analyze not only your horse, but also the likelihood of each of the races’ horses chance of hitting the board and the subsequent effect on the show pay-out.

And who’s your competition in the show pool? Not the dabbling salaried men who flock to the exotic pools. Mostly it’s stone-faced, leaden-assed, old-school types who endlessly and motionlessly stare at the tote and maybe once a day arise to push through the window a sum that even a Whale would respect.

Eventually I tucked my tail and returned to win and exacta betting. But if you’re insistent on trying show betting, the one sweet spot I found is this: In a race that figures to have a contested pace, show bettors tend to avoid need-the-lead types. In those races the quality speed often gets worn by the pace and caught for the win-- but might hang on to hit the board with a show pay-out that is disproportionate to what their win price would have been.

ranchwest
01-09-2010, 12:45 PM
No, I did not make that assumption, and I gave you a chance to tell us about your achievements with regard to ROI. You have declined multiple requests.



What is possible in practice is significantly less than in theory. All games seem to have a limit that have been reached by the most skilled players. Some examples without the specific data:
-- In baseball, some player has established the highest single-season batting average.
-- In basketball, some player has established the highest single-season free throw percentage.
-- In horseracing, some horse has set the fastest time in a 6f race on dirt.

Records will be broken by future competitors, but the new records will be improved upon by very small margins, and not by factors such as 25%. This would seem to suggest that there are some sort of upper limits, even if we can not calculate what those specific limit values are.

Show ROIs too are subject to some type of upper limits, even if we can not determine them. In other efforts, statistics are often known and easily verified. In horseracing where some may not tell the truth, and some winning players wish to remain under the radar, we will never be able to get a good handle on what the best achievable ROIs are with regard to show betting. By the way, when we talk about show ROIs, we must always consider how may plays they are based on, as one affects and impacts the other.

You may have the final response.

You've told us a lot about what we don't know.

Track Collector
01-10-2010, 01:28 PM
You've told us a lot about what we don't know.

I offered an opinion, although certainly biased from my own personal experience. I have yet to achieve a consistent and long-term level of success, so I enjoy the opportunities to learn from any who are willing to share their handicapping experiences. The past two years have been a humbling experience, with net losses even with the benefit of rebates.

Here is another opinion. I suspect that you are either not profitable long-term with your show wagering, or you do not keep records and simply do not know. You also find it unpleasant when you are unable to walk the talk. Silence would have been a better approach than attempting to divert the issue with sly remarks.

NOTE to PA: I'm done with my personal remarks, so no need to warn this half of the party. ;)

WinterTriangle
01-11-2010, 02:53 AM
Yes, but tell us about your long-term ROI with this specialized show wager. We already know you had one great day that achieved a 1.67 ROI.

That's all he claimed, one day, and posted a one day ROI.

The topic was going along nicely, with everyone giving their thoughts about show wagering, and most in the topic assumed the "to each their own" attitude.

Then, for some reason, you had to "challenge" ranchwest, grilling him on his overall ROI.

Topics here become like this, and the ones who introduce this "chest-beating behavior" kill the thoughtfulness and usefulness of the topic, by turning it into some kind of "challenge."

We were all exchanging information, learning something about how we each think, and enjoying the flow of the topic. Why did this have to turn into some kinda ROI *contest*?

Just curious what got your hackles up so bad?

Track Collector
01-11-2010, 02:00 PM
That's all he claimed, one day, and posted a one day ROI.

The topic was going along nicely, with everyone giving their thoughts about show wagering, and most in the topic assumed the "to each their own" attitude.

Then, for some reason, you had to "challenge" ranchwest, grilling him on his overall ROI.

Topics here become like this, and the ones who introduce this "chest-beating behavior" kill the thoughtfulness and usefulness of the topic, by turning it into some kind of "challenge."

We were all exchanging information, learning something about how we each think, and enjoying the flow of the topic. Why did this have to turn into some kinda ROI *contest*?

Just curious what got your hackles up so bad?

I was wrong to single out Ranchwest, and it was an error in judgement to purse the matter further once it was clear he did not want to participate further. No chest-beating here either, as the information I shared (re: my database) was for the purpose of supporting an opinion I held regarding possible long-term show ROI. You might notice too that rather than speaking about a success, I shared some recent failures.