PHA Race2, Nov 30 :The REAL reason why this game is DYING

[DeltaLover]

The fact that horse racing fails to attract young people is often discussed in this forum and people try to find the reason.

Today’s second race in Philadelphia Park is a perfect example why this is happening….

A 4 year old gelding called Stealing Saratoga, is entered in exactly the same level and distance where he came dead last (by 27 lengths) only seven days ago with no excuses and manages to win the race returning $115.60 TO WIN.

What do the connections of this Stealer have to say about his performance?

What transformed it so radically in only seven days and more than anything else why they reentered him again after only seven days?

Of course anyone with some common sense can easily answer these questions and come to the conclusion that this game is a game of larceny and try to keep himself, his friends and his relatives out of it.

[castaway01]

The fact that horse racing fails to attract young people is often discussed in this forum and people try to find the reason.

Today’s second race in Philadelphia Park is a perfect example why this is happening….

A 4 year old gelding called Stealing Saratoga, is entered in exactly the same level and distance where he came dead last (by 27 lengths) only seven days ago with no excuses and manages to win the race returning $115.60 TO WIN.

What do the connections of this Stealer have to say about his performance?

What transformed it so radically in only seven days and more than anything else why they reentered him again after only seven days?

Of course anyone with some common sense can easily answer these questions and come to the conclusion that this game is a game of larceny and try to keep himself, his friends and his relatives out of it.

So, it was a larcenous, fixed payoff with rampant cheating, yet none of the people involved in the juiced horse bet on it because it was 57-1?

[the_fat_man]

Exactly right. All the world class intellectuals, the significant thinkers of this period, are masquerading as trainers, jocks, agents, and owners and FIXING RACES rather than solving some real problems (or making some real money). :lol:

[lamboguy]

i can only tell you this, that horse should have paid $957 and the trifecta should have paid about $30k.

that doesn't say that any illegal drugs were involved, but probably they figured something out inbetween races. still not right though for not letting public in on changes.

never mind cataway, he seems like a very bitter arogant guy, he slammed me and now has me on ignore. but still wants us to bet horese into parimutual pools becuaue he is so smart he is going to clean us.

i am going to give him a piece of advice, when he was going to school, i was coming home

[tzipi]

The fact that horse racing fails to attract young people is often discussed in this forum and people try to find the reason.

Today’s second race in Philadelphia Park is a perfect example why this is happening….

A 4 year old gelding called Stealing Saratoga, is entered in exactly the same level and distance where he came dead last (by 27 lengths) only seven days ago with no excuses and manages to win the race returning $115.60 TO WIN.

What do the connections of this Stealer have to say about his performance?

What transformed it so radically in only seven days and more than anything else why they reentered him again after only seven days?

Of course anyone with some common sense can easily answer these questions and come to the conclusion that this game is a game of larceny and try to keep himself, his friends and his relatives out of it.


Ha you're telling me! Yesterday at Aqueduct Indy's Forum gets killed at $7,500 every single race getting beat by the same horses in the races by double digit lengths. What happens? Now wires em at 61-1. Trust me trainers stiff horses and they were stiffing him. Only explanation. BUT I DO NOT think that's why racing is in trouble. So many problems with racing itself and also way it treats its customers.
Stiffing horses has been around forever. Nothing new.

[infrontby1]

If you consult the chart, even after considering the high takeout on TRI's in the state of PA, (an insane rate of 30%) you still have @ $43,000 of wagering to distribute amongst the winning tickets.

With the winning combination paying $1,700 for a buck, that's still an awful lot of winning tickets with a $100 + horse keyed with a 9/1 and a 11/1.

Only other rational explanation would be there happened to be a lot of grand mothers whose birthdays were on March 18th at Philadelphia Park on a rainy Monday afternoon.

[DeltaLover]

Stiffing horses has been around forever. Nothing new.

That’s absolutely true.

But it is also true that while in the “golden era” of horseracing, there were very limited options for somebody who wanted to gamble without travelling to Vegas. In our days there are numerous available ways for him to put his money in action than betting horses.

That’s the point.

Horse racing has to improve in all its aspects if it wants to be competitive…

For sure lower rake, less racing, comps modern facilities etc are all requirements for the success (or survival) of the industry but transparency and elimination of betting scams must be in the top of the list….

[Tom]

So, it was a larcenous, fixed payoff with rampant cheating, yet none of the people involved in the juiced horse bet on it because it was 57-1?

You know this?

[lamboguy]

That’s absolutely true.

But it is also true that while in the “golden era” of horseracing, there were very limited options for somebody who wanted to gamble without travelling to Vegas. In our days there are numerous available ways for him to put his money in action than betting horses.

That’s the point.

Horse racing has to improve in all its aspects if it wants to be competitive…

For sure lower rake, less racing, comps modern facilities etc are all requirements for the success (or survival) of the industry but transparencyouy and elimination of betting scams must be in the top of the list….you got it right

[Pell Mell]

Jeeez, what are you guys looking at, just the last race? This horse had 2 seconds and a third against this company back in may and Jun. Had a good 2nd in the mud against open company in the mud and catches mud today. It couldn't keep up with a real speedball last out and the speedball in that race demolished the field including the 3/5 chalk.
Today it finally gets a clear lead of it's own and you know what that can mean.
I wasn't playing so I'm not biased either way but I see horses that have worse last races than that bet down to chalk everyday. That horse had a lot of reasons to be bet.

To me, it looked like a huge overlay.:cool:

[onefast99]

Ha you're telling me! Yesterday at Aqueduct Indy's Forum gets killed at $7,500 every single race getting beat by the same horses in the races by double digit lengths. What happens? Now wires em at 61-1. Trust me trainers stiff horses and they were stiffing him. Only explanation. BUT I DO NOT think that's why racing is in trouble. So many problems with racing itself and also way it treats its customers.
Stiffing horses has been around forever. Nothing new.
Indy's forum at one time was a decent horse right about when Winning Move bought her privately. If you can watch the race again look at her as MS cracks her with the whip she grimaces in pain and her rear end looks very weak about 50 yards from the finish line.

[levinmpa]

I completely disagree with the original poster regarding this horse. I agree his last race was poor, but this horse had plenty going for it as "Pell Mell" pointed out above.

Positives:
1. Early speed
2. Off track (1 Win, 1 2nd from 4 off track tries)
3. Better post. (was in the 1 hole last out)
4. 7 pound bug boy (carries 111 instead of 118)
5. Returns in 7 days. (I always regard quick turnarounds as a positive)

Who knows what happened in his last start. He might have thrown a shoe or just didn't feel like running. It happens. I'm not saying I would have wagered on this horse, but saying the game is dying because a horse has a "form reversal" is a little bit ridiculous. If horses didn't turn around and pay big prices from time to time what would be the point of playing. I have hit plenty of longshots like this in the past. This is what makes the game great. Read between the lines, solve the puzzle, and get paid.

Perhaps the original poster should subscribe to Michael Pizzola's "SW cubed" philosophy. "Some will, some won't, so what, Next!" Some races just can't be explained. Move on!

[iwearpurple]

Full Card Reports had this horse as their 2nd choice (A Value Odds choice with fair odds of 4-1). I don't know how they pick their horses but they occasionally come up with monster winners like this.

If long shots never won a race, racing would be destroyed.

I saw many similar comments when Mine That Bird won the Kentucky Derby.

Human beings sometimes have very good or very bad days. We are able to communicate those feelings with others. However, I don't think that horses have the ability to tell their trainers that today they feel like running or not.

[Pell Mell]

The fact that horse racing fails to attract young people is often discussed in this forum and people try to find the reason.

Today’s second race in Philadelphia Park is a perfect example why this is happening….

A 4 year old gelding called Stealing Saratoga, is entered in exactly the same level and distance where he came dead last (by 27 lengths) only seven days ago with no excuses and manages to win the race returning $115.60 TO WIN.

What do the connections of this Stealer have to say about his performance?

What transformed it so radically in only seven days and more than anything else why they reentered him again after only seven days?

Of course anyone with some common sense can easily answer these questions and come to the conclusion that this game is a game of larceny and try to keep himself, his friends and his relatives out of it.

Evidently you are new to the game or have never learned a few basics.

1- When a speed horse can't get the lead he's usually finished.

2- When a speed horse tires it usually stops to a walk. So you said this horse had no excuse in it's last but it did. It ran into a real speedball that put him away early and ran away with the race. That's a real good excuse and it happens mucho times everyday, everywhere.

3- Always disregard a horse's speed rating when it battled up front and dropped back. Meaningless.;)

[kenwoodallpromos]

"PHA Race2, Nov 30 "The REAL reason why this game is DYING".
I avoid 1-race examples that nare supposed to prove any point (well, almost always!).
I do not really see the point of even using race 1, 2, or 3 any day at any track to prove blanket point in racing!! Sorry if you disagree!LOL!!

[cj's dad]

Looking at this horse using pace #'s, the ML fave (5/2) had raced once on the main in the last 10 and had a terrible overall #; he did however have the best LP fig except this was in a 5.5 f race which usually does not matter.

The #3 had the 4th best early pace # (EP) and had 2 figures in the 70's in his overall performance line; most others were consistently in the 50's and 60's.

This guy winning would not be all that unheard of.

[Space Monkey]

A 4 year old gelding called Stealing Saratoga, is entered in exactly the same level and distance where he came dead last (by 27 lengths) only seven days ago with no excuses and manages to win the race returning $115.60 TO WIN.

There's a thread on this board dedicated to what the average handicapper misses the most in trying to figure out a winner. One of the best points made was that there is too much emphasis on a horses last race.

I didn't play the race but others here have pointed out many factors as to how this horse was playable. I hope the original poster has learned a lot from this thread. One thread, tons of useful knowledge gained.

[DeltaLover]

By no means I don't expect or need to learn anything from you or anyone other in this forum since I am playing this game for over 30 years, I gamble for living and there are races where I play in one shot what you play for the whole year.....

[PaceAdvantage]

I gamble for living and there are races where I play in one shot what you play for the whole year.....Stop with the silliness...replies like this go nowhere fast...you don't know how much SpaceMonkey bets, and you could be making shit up for all we know...

Now, with that said, and for the record, races like this are what should ATTRACT people to the game...not races paying $6.10.

[PaceAdvantage]

PS. I just looked at this race in HTR and it had the horse tagged as $$, meaning a nice price play...the other horse it had tagged as a $$ horse was the #10 who finished 4th at 11-1.

It also had the race tagged as a race very RIPE to produce a longshot payoff.

With the proper tools, races like these are not hard to identify beforehand.

[cmoore]

Ha you're telling me! Yesterday at Aqueduct Indy's Forum gets killed at $7,500 every single race getting beat by the same horses in the races by double digit lengths. What happens? Now wires em at 61-1. Trust me trainers stiff horses and they were stiffing him. Only explanation. BUT I DO NOT think that's why racing is in trouble. So many problems with racing itself and also way it treats its customers.
Stiffing horses has been around forever. Nothing new.

Now there's a logical explanation for Indy Forum winning that race at Aqueduct..She showed tons of early speed in her last off layoff. The 3 early speed runners were the 4,6 and 8..The 8 was rated because the jock didn't want to get into a speed duel is my guess. Tiffany was pulled even farther back. Tiffany was also coming back in just 4 days..When Indy got an uncontested lead on the front end. She got brave and they couldn't catch her..I looked at that 4 horse and remembering saying to myself " these type are dangerous ",but like a dumbass I got sucked into the bad speed ratings of the 4 and the high early speed figs of the 6 and 8. I actually thought there was going to be a speed duel and and chose the 2..How often are you going to find a 61-1 shot on the front end all by herself?

[cmoore]

The fact that horse racing fails to attract young people is often discussed in this forum and people try to find the reason.

Today’s second race in Philadelphia Park is a perfect example why this is happening….

A 4 year old gelding called Stealing Saratoga, is entered in exactly the same level and distance where he came dead last (by 27 lengths) only seven days ago with no excuses and manages to win the race returning $115.60 TO WIN.

What do the connections of this Stealer have to say about his performance?

What transformed it so radically in only seven days and more than anything else why they reentered him again after only seven days?

Of course anyone with some common sense can easily answer these questions and come to the conclusion that this game is a game of larceny and try to keep himself, his friends and his relatives out of it.

That horses numbers fit the reverse bounce angle that was discussed in another thread..

40
69
77
81

Sooner or later this horse has to bounce back up. A race full of early speed gets won by the longest of all the early speed types. Also the mud was a plus when looking at this horses off track record..That's where his best speed fig came from. Now this is always easier to see after the fact. But there are logical reasons why he won..

[QuarterCrack]

By no means I don't expect or need to learn anything from you or anyone other in this forum

Then why come to a message board? That seems like a strange attitude to have - there's always stuff to learn.
:confused:

[Stillriledup]

Delta, i know you're upset at stuff like this, but in reality, you should be happy that horses are winning that the public can't have. If all the horses who the public fancies are winning, than its going to be hard for YOU to win also. In order to show a profit year in and year out as a handicapper, you need large prices to win on occasion.

There was a race a couple years ago in California where a first time starter lost by 25 lengths and was coming back in the same class. I watched his replay and noticed that he was blocked badly on the far turn, the rider took the horse up hard and then stopped riding. With 70 yards to go in the race, the jock asked the horse to run again and he exploded, and then was immediately 'wrapped up' at the end as to not 'show him off' on the gallop out.

This horse came back in a Maiden Special Weight race and went off at 65-1. The racing form missed the fact that this horse was checked and missed that this horse was wrapped up early and not asked at all until late. The horse won and paid 130 something dollars and i made a major score on the race. There might have been someone in the crowd, who thought to himself, "this is why racing is going downhill" at the same time I'M thinking, "this is why racing is the greatest game in the world".

[Robert Goren]

The fact a winner paid a ton is not killing racing. That actually might bring in a gambler or two if they were able find out about it. I doubt anyone other than a real horseplayer will ever know about it. Nothing going on in the sport is news any more. That what is killing horseracing.

[cmoore]

Delta, i know you're upset at stuff like this, but in reality, you should be happy that horses are winning that the public can't have. If all the horses who the public fancies are winning, than its going to be hard for YOU to win also. In order to show a profit year in and year out as a handicapper, you need large prices to win on occasion.

There was a race a couple years ago in California where a first time starter lost by 25 lengths and was coming back in the same class. I watched his replay and noticed that he was blocked badly on the far turn, the rider took the horse up hard and then stopped riding. With 70 yards to go in the race, the jock asked the horse to run again and he exploded, and then was immediately 'wrapped up' at the end as to not 'show him off' on the gallop out.

This horse came back in a Maiden Special Weight race and went off at 65-1. The racing form missed the fact that this horse was checked and missed that this horse was wrapped up early and not asked at all until late. The horse won and paid 130 something dollars and i made a major score on the race. There might have been someone in the crowd, who thought to himself, "this is why racing is going downhill" at the same time I'M thinking, "this is why racing is the greatest game in the world".

I've hit my biggest win bets on maidens. Many times it's on pedigree alone..Like Stillriledup said, you have to hit those long shots that others dismiss. That's what makes this game the greatest in the world..

[Horseplayersbet.com]

That horse was a cinch compared to handicapping the Derby winner "something something Bird"

[Rook]

I had a brutal day today but this race was the only bright spot in a 6 hour stretch. The 3 was a massive overlay as he had the best career mud Beyer in the field. This was a fair comparable because the number was earned in August of this year and 9 of the 10 horses had run in the slop before.

There are tons of legitimate issues to slam the racing industry but a big price on a decent horse is hardly one of them.

[CBedo]

Often (especially a few years ago), when you lost a big hand of online poker that you couldn't explain, it was easy to blame the online poker room itself, saying "this game is fixed" or some other form of rant about being cheated. I always thought that for the most part these were ridiculous (yes there is online cheating and collusion, but not the absurd amounts people claim. Overall the integrity of the game is very strong).

What I thought was more ridiculous, and what relates to this post, is that if you really think that cheating, larceny and chaos that are against you and keep you from winning, is that rampant (in poker or in horses), then how stupid are you to keep betting? Only a real idiot would try to beat a game that he "knows" is unbeatable! :confused:

[Overlay]

The variety of posted ways in which this horse could be detected, plus the odds offered on it despite those indicators, are one of the best advertisements that I've read in a while for what makes racing/handicapping the great game that it is, rather than an example of why the sport is declining. Compare that with almost any other wagering game, where unchanging mathematical probabilities are stacked against the player on every single bet, and a long-term edge through the exercise of skill is unobtainable.

[speed]

By no means I don't expect or need to learn anything from you or anyone other in this forum since I am playing this game for over 30 years, I gamble for living and there are races where I play in one shot what you play for the whole year.....


I was a bit pissed off after taking a tough beat but after just reading this i am all smiles.

Thank You Delta

[Onion Monster]

The real travesty was how badly my pick, McCarty, weakened in the stretch. I was about to count my winnings.

[njcurveball]

So I just opened up HTR, no results downloaded. There are two $$ horses in the race. The $$ denotes a live longshot. #10 and #3 are the $$ horses.

I check the velocity screen and #3 is the first fraction leader. #3 is also the EP leader. I used the default paceline mode.

This is exactly why there is money to be made in this game. :ThmbUp:

[Pell Mell]

By no means I don't expect or need to learn anything from you or anyone other in this forum since I am playing this game for over 30 years, I gamble for living and there are races where I play in one shot what you play for the whole year.....

Perhaps I'm wrong, but what you just stated, in addition to what you said about the game not attracting the young people makes me think you are actually a newbie.
First of all, if you've been following this game for 30 years you would have to know that the race in question has happened a thousand times before and you wouldn't even think twice about it.
Another item is, having been at this game for 60 yrs myself, is that almost all beginning handicappers think horses are supposed to run to their last race.
JMO, but I think you are new to the games of horse racing and bullshitting. :D

[DeanT]

I think the original poster makes a good point. It does not matter if we can find the horse and make money or not, it is about the way players are treated in North American racing (imo). If a horse runs last by 100 in Hong Kong a reason must be given. The horse must be scoped and this vet report is reported on the Hong Kong Jockey Club website. When the horse is in to go again, the public is confident he is ready to go. In Australia a race like this would not go unnoticed. The stewards would ask the trainer for a report and if satisfactory, report it to the public. It goes a long way to obliquely say as well that if something was untoward happening, the trainer is on alert.

I think it is simply respect for customers money (or more appropriately the lack of respect here). If we think of the NASDAQ, pump and dumps happen, but they are investigiated. if a stock rises on no news it is pulled off the board. There are all kinds of safeguards. In horse racing, not so much, and it might explain why investors flock to the markets, and avoid the racetrack like the plague.

JMO.

[SaratogaSteve]

Can we change the title of this thread to:

"PHA Race2, Nov 30 :The REAL reason why this game is DYING is because I didn't have the $115 overlay"

:lol:

[Stillriledup]

Can we change the title of this thread to:

"PHA Race2, Nov 30 :The REAL reason why this game is DYING is because I didn't have the $115 overlay"

:lol:


Just like the Budweiser commercial says, "True, True"

[Dan H]

It was probably all that late simulcast money that drove the horse's odds all the way down to 55-1. That's the real reason the game is dying.

[Light]

Good responses on why this horse won ,but I'd like to point out another. Notice the spacing of dates in all his last 10 races which is also under the guidance of the same trainer. The only other time this trainer came back with this horse in such a short time,(7 days),the horse ran a really good race. It looks like a fading 5th, 4 lengths back, but the winner won that race by 3. That means this horse finished only 1 length back of the 2nd place horse in an Anw1x in a 10 horse field. And it was 34-1 that day. You think the connections don't remember this little idiosynchrocy about their horse coming back in 7 days and running a great race? That's their job. And that's why they came back again in 7 days and thats why the horse won this time with the softer company. Its right there in the form. No mystery.No secret.

[PaceAdvantage]

So I just opened up HTR, no results downloaded. There are two $$ horses in the race. The $$ denotes a live longshot. #10 and #3 are the $$ horses.

I check the velocity screen and #3 is the first fraction leader. #3 is also the EP leader. I used the default paceline mode.

This is exactly why there is money to be made in this game. :ThmbUp:See reply #20...:lol:

[WinterTriangle]

I think the original poster makes a good point. It does not matter if we can find the horse and make money or not, it is about the way players are treated in North American racing (imo). If a horse runs last by 100 in Hong Kong a reason must be given. The horse must be scoped and this vet report is reported on the Hong Kong Jockey Club website. When the horse is in to go again, the public is confident he is ready to go.

Horses fare better under this kind of watchfulness which passes on to the bettor. Or, vice-versa. Either way, I like it.

VODKA had a nosebleed in Japan Cup.......JRA won't allow her to race for a full 30 days. (not run back in 10 days with no explanation given.)

They have some very fit horses going into races.

Aussie/Japan racing, 16-18+ horse fields, hit trifectas it makes ya proud, feels good. (And pays good, too.)

PPs don't spoon feed the bettors speed figures, which is fine, I use them only as part of secondary handicapping factor.


The horse in this topic winning doesn't set off any alarms whatsoever for me, though. :confused: As Pell Mell mentioned, unless somebody is using last race as their primary handicapping factor.

[toussaud]

just becuase you didn't hit it doesn't mean it wasn't fixed.

not saying it wasn't but I think the fact that we, true fans, automatically jump to THIS conclusion is more of the problem than anything

how the hell do we want newcomers to not think the game is rigged when WE don't even think it's fair. that doesn't make sense.

I guess mine that bird was stiffed in the sunland derby as well. and the breeders cup juve.

[proffdw]

i agree with you about stiffing horses.i started in 1979 at longacres near seattle washington,and i've seen a man who was leading rider some years who would stiff horses so badly that anyone watching the race very close in the stretch could see it plain as day.a couple times i remember was when this jockey had the lead way out in front he should have won by a big margin,heran third. another time he was back about 5th or 6th in the stretch with a long way to go,and you could see that he made sure he didn't do any better than 4th,but that's long ago.i don't go much anymore because of transportation problems,only if someone with a car goes,but i keep my hand in.there's other things too.the last time i went to emerald downs it cost me 10.50 before i even planked my butt on a seat.that's crazy,no wonder it's not like it was in the old days.i don't have to pay to get in at a restaraunt to eat. they make their money from selling the food.the track should do the same.they charge enough for food at the track.i lost a lot of the big interest i had in horse racing over the years because of these,and other things.

[Canarsie]

The conditions of this race are Claiming 7500 NW of 2 lifetime. These aren't exactly sound animals we are talking about here. This trainer has a ROI of $2.37 winning 2 of 30 claiming races but had an 0fer at the meet. So she wins rarely but produces bombs.

One more thing box the 3 Storm Cat horses and you have the exacta I'm sure a few used that angle.

Just my two cents.

[fmolf]

In my opinion to find this horse it just took a little more digging.Maybe he was being stiffed to get a good price.In my opinion their will be more of this going on as the smaller stables struggle to survive with purses shrinking and bills remaining constant or rising.What better way to supplement their income than betting,when they believe the horse is ready and the price is right!