Wed. AP & CD

[Valuist]

Churchill's card has become awful, with all the scratches. I'm only making one play there: Stanislaus in the 9th. Day figures to be very heavily bet w/Elite Mercedes, who has run on an off track only twice, and not since the previous century. Stanislaus was caught dueling wide at Kee, and is 1 for 1 on off tracks.

Arlington

6th Pic 3 (2,5,7) with (1,4) with (5,6,7)

6th
West Side Maria ships in from Tampa for Block; Tam shippers have been nice value plays; Notable Craft makes her first start for Reavis, who's 28% first off claim. Go For Puddin was 3 wide on both turns vs 50K claimers last time out.

7th
Pico DJ Alex is the program favorite and he is usable but not a lock, IMO. If the rail is deep, which it usually is, apprentice Contreras will have to steer him off it. Apache Tribe was a far back 2nd, but 7 in front of 3rd at this level last time.

8th
I'm trying to beat the 7-5 program favorite Yalta. Kabylia was wide in a stake in her last and was competitive in California last year. I'm not familiar w/this rider but Lukas must have confidence to use him. Melody Blue ships in from Hollywood. Honorville had a nice win on the turf April 22 at Haw. I'm not sure if Yalta can get up at 1 1/16.

9th
tri 1 & 13 1st and 2nd with (3,4,5,7,12) and also 1st and 3rd with those horses in the 2nd slot.
Lucky They Call Me is the fastest here and its just a matter if Montalvo can get him to relax on the lead. I thought they were playing games w/Ship Shape; having him eased, then the drop to 5000 (which he won) to get eligible here. If Lucky They Call Me doesn't relax this tri could pay huge.

[pjd888]

Valuist-good sound handicapping-again!
I appreciate you taking the time to share and post your selections.
Keep cashin

[Valuist]

Thanks Pjd

I actually ended up catching the tri in the last race. I know it sounds like I'm making that up since I wrote I keyed the 1 & 13 but I went out to the OTB after work to watch. The 1 had a major rider change. Emigh may not be Jerry Bailey, but he's a sound, competant rider. Chip Termini is a guy who rides about 2 horses a month. He's probably an exercise rider; Since Ship Shape was eased 2 starts back then took the big drop, then Emigh takes off the horse, I interpreted that as a major negative. Looking at the other contenders to key w/the 13, the 12 was in very solid form and was an overlay price. Trainer Reavis is very sharp and the horse figured to stay off the rail. I definitely preferred the 12 over the 5, Sir Shimmy, who was a stretch running sprinter but totally unproven at middle distances. Was the DQ warranted? Montalvo had to check pretty hard in the stretch but I thought the 12 horse was clear of him. I won't complain since I caught it but I bet it pays at least twice as much with the 9-1 winning instead of 2nd. The 12 did bear in but I thought he was clear of the 13 and I'll nominate Montalvo for an Academy Award for his performance. I'd like to say I caught the tri in the 6th since the 3 I listed ran 1-2-3 but only played the Pic 3, which I missed.