Knob Creek

[Valuist]

Here we go again:

Odds when field started to load into gate: 9-1
Odds after field had raced the first quarter mile: 7-1
Odds when Knob Creek made the lead on far turn: 5-1

Really makes one wonder about the logic of win betting when you have late fluctuations that big.

[WinterTriangle]

Maybe late money coming in from simulcast sites adjusting to reflect his truer odds?

9-1 at gate seemed a bit high for Knob Creek---- ITM 13 of 19 starts, record going backwards 1st, 2nd, 2nd, bumped, 2nd, etc. ?

$ trickling in after the first 1/4 mile makes sense...but odds still changing on the far turn is a bit perplexing.

Have you "timed" this late odds change based on other races at Hawthorne? (If it takes that long in most races for the odds to settle, then this wouldn't be unusual right?)

Curious.

[cj's dad]

If it looks like s--t and smells like s--t then it probably is !!

[GaryG]

If it looks like s--t and smells like s--t then it probably is !!Especially since he won with complete authority. Someone other than yours truly made a killing.

[Valuist]

Especially since he won with complete authority. Someone other than yours truly made a killing.

Exactly. This horse is a pretty deep closer but as they approached the far turn, despite a stranglehold by the rider, the horse dragged him to the front. Then we see the click down to 5-1. BTW, this horse looks very capable of coming back to win at a higher level.

[illinoisbred]

Last spring at Hawthorne I bet on a 7-2 shot as they loaded in the gate.He wired the field and won by 9 lengths at closing odds of 4-5. What you experienced I thought would occur also with Da Grizz yesterday. He hung around 5,6-1 and with approx. 5 minutes to post dropped to 5-2. He did drift back up to 9-2-which made me happy. I agree with you regarding keeping an eye on Knob Creek-pretty impressive performance, and he's finally in competent hands.