What Do You Do When....

[Cadillakin]

You encounter a horse in your handicapping who is coming up to the race perfectly, prepped well, working great.. has a final time (in his pp's) that would win the race, pace figures that would put him on the lead at every call, and is in a very paceless race...

But the horse doesn't win often.. his trainer wins about once every blue moon, his jockey is cold as ice, and he wears front wraps. I have this feeling that if I bet him, he will die in the final eighth and run out of the exacta... and if I don't, he will run 1-2.

This horse is running today at Hollywood.. He is Sir Bell. Tell me why I should or shouldn't bet him? And if I do, how should I bet him?

[andymays]

It looks to me like it's one of those races where it depends who sends. Sir Bell showed some speed last time but in his other races not all that much. Pedroza usually sends more often than not. Limestone Edge looks like he could go.

On top of everthing else it's a short field!


Good Luck if you do make a bet!

[Overlay]

Sounds also like a case for determining the odds that would make the horse worth the risk of betting, in light of its record, and how it compares to the competition that it's facing.

[matthewsiv]

Pass

Neither he or his trainer and jockey give any reason to bet with confidence

If you have to bet, a small wager across the board

[the_fat_man]

This is an interesting situation. Let's assume the horse has a clear pace advantage. Then, we need to see if it's actually ever run a GOOD race. It has: OSA_9_24_08. This was 1 of its 5 second place finishes.

Then, we see if there's a horse in the race that has ever run 'against the grain', in other words, is there a horse in the race that's shown that it can go and get a loose leader (without any help)? Joshua's Dream has shown that he can do this (albeit against cheaper).

Plenty of better opportunities, IMO.

[fmolf]

mostly i pass unless i can get a sever overlay on this horse.maybe value in the excta as a winner and in the second spot....mostly pass though.

[skate]

I'd look at the horse, are the wraps new? If so, try something else.

But if the horse looks that good and you get some odds (8/1 or so) bet the house.

[andymays]

The horse had nothing but it was a typical Pedroza ride early. Send to get the lead and then give it up and then try to rally. He does that more than any Jock I've ever seen.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I didn't look at the past performances,but if you saw that much in the horse and seeing that he went off at 9-1 I'd say it was a good bet.If not what price would he have been a good bet at???

[ranchwest]

I'm just now reading this thread, but I don't think this horse has shown ability in his times to compete with these. I'd have passed on this one.

[lansdale]

You encounter a horse in your handicapping who is coming up to the race perfectly, prepped well, working great.. has a final time (in his pp's) that would win the race, pace figures that would put him on the lead at every call, and is in a very paceless race...

But the horse doesn't win often.. his trainer wins about once every blue moon, his jockey is cold as ice, and he wears front wraps. I have this feeling that if I bet him, he will die in the final eighth and run out of the exacta... and if I don't, he will run 1-2.

This horse is running today at Hollywood.. He is Sir Bell. Tell me why I should or shouldn't bet him? And if I do, how should I bet him?

Cadillakin,

I don't know if you accept the theory about animals like this - they run well but rarely win, often have more seconds (like this one) and thirds - that they are essentially 'herd' horses, but this seems to me to be a plausible explanation of a phenomenon we've all encountered. I throw them out all the time, as you can see the crowd did here, with good reason. That said, even as far as pace figures go, this horse, although respectable, still didn't have pace figures to do any better than he did against this group. If you think he did, your figures are letting you down.

Cheers,

lansdale

[CBedo]

A couple of points from my perspective.

1) In general, as Overlay says, value is the key, but assuming decent odds, if I find a horse with a early pace advantage and the overall ability to win, I bet it just like any other selection. I trust my research into these types winning percentages. Cold barns and cold jockeys obviously matter, but I have found that usually, the public overplays it and you get an adequate odds bonus to compensate.

2) I didn't look at this race closely, but I have him labeled as a presser, and sometimes style trumps numbers. I have noticed in numerous seemingly paceless races, a presser or closing type that seems to have an early advantage. You would think these would take advantage of that, but often they don't. Whether it's the trainer, jockey, or just their natural herd instinct, they often run to their normal style, not their numbers.

3) Specific to this race, I don't want to start a final time versus speed figures argument (other threads for that), but looking at the numbers that I use (CJ's performance figures), this horse had the WORST last race figure, and that figure was supported by previous figures, as were the other horse's better figures. Also, he only has a slight advantage in the early department over the 4 and the 2 has also shown that he likes to run up front or very close. With his pressing label, he doesn't figure to get an easy lead and with his worst late kick, I wouldn't consider him a bet (easy to say after the fact I know, but I did the analysis before I looked at the chart).