Any data available......

[misscashalot]

Have started a study with about 100 races. I noticed that 2 year old winners have the greatest spread when comparing ML to win odds compared other age groups. Anyone have figs which compare this data from other age groups individually?

[kenwoodallpromos]

The difference between 2's and older as to individual horse knowledge by connections being much greater. Anyone know how much more connections like to bet 2's?

[cmoore]

Have started a study with about 100 races. I noticed that 2 year old winners have the greatest spread when comparing ML to win odds compared other age groups. Anyone have figs which compare this data from other age groups individually?

What's the spread in your 100 race study??

[Bochall]

I recently did a 2 year study on 2yr old FTS in New York (only the Bel-Sar-Bel rotation...no Aqu) attempting to determine if 2yr old FTS required a 5f work before warranting a bet. It was for 2008-2009, concluding at the end of this years' Bel fall meet. So what are the fargin conclusions right? Well, its the same as most 'studies' I do....about half of em had a 5f work (around 54%). Ahhhh, time well spent huh? The nice trends I uncovered were which barns always had a 5f work and which never had one. Virtually all of Pletcher FTS 2yr old winners show a 5f work, whereas Zito very rarely puts a 5f work into a FTS winner. Zito aint the greatest first out guy but he does put some over every year at Sar. Only drawback to my work was that I didnt examine all the FTS losers by each barn; just the winners. So its possible that every Pletcher FTS has a 5f work, not just the winners.

[misscashalot]

What's the spread in your 100 race study??

I've increased the study to 1019 races and are broken up by race age groups:

91 2 yr old races winners ML average odds $5.5 and winners actual odds average $5.1 = 40 cents higher ML

114 races for 3 year old $5.3 ML and $5.2 actual = 10 cents higher ML

624 races for 3up $4.9 ML and $4.8 actual = 10 cent higher ML

190 races for 4up $4.8 ML and $4.8 actual = no dif

[Overlay]

The difference between 2's and older as to individual horse knowledge by connections being much greater. Anyone know how much more connections like to bet 2's?

At the time of Quirin's original research, he indicated that 6-1 odds were the statistical dividing line for two-year-old first-time starters in that respect. Two-year-old first-timers that were bet down below 6-1 won 20.8% of the time, with an impact value of 2.12. (However, even those horses showed a flat-bet loss of 18%.) Those at 6-1 or higher won only 2.6% of the time, with an impact value of 0.26 (which was one of the lowest values Quirin listed for any handicapping factor or category of horses), and a flat-bet loss of 53.5%.

[Overlay]

I should add that Quirin did not provide any similar odds-based statistics for two-year-old non-first-time-starters. Those horses were evaluated based on performance.

[my_nameaintearl]

if p < .05

or if p <.002

you may be onto something