ALL-Ways Confusion

[PandaMan]

I've been reading the ALL-Ways newsletters, many which attempt to explain how to use the data provided by the software.

The problem is they spend a lot of time explaining but somehow don't manage to tell you exactly how to use the data. I'm not a moron, but I'm having a helluva time figuring out just how to use the info I'm buying and downloading from BRIS.

I looked at ALL-Ways some years ago, and this was a problem then. There was actually a book published that told you step-by-step how to handicap using ALL-Ways by a third party. The author claimed many people had the same issue, i.e. difficulty learning the software despite "detailed" instructions. ALL-Ways quickly took action against the book, wanting its clients to obtain information only from them. I'd love to get a copy of that book.

So am I alone in this? Is there any way to learn how to use ALL-Ways besides the frustrating newsletters they make available? It's obvious there are more than a few using it with success, so I feel like I'm missing something.

[gregrph]

I have tried to use this software a number of times. I love reading the newsletters and I believe that there is good information in there. My problem is that I have little tiime to sit down and digest it all. I have problems trying to figure out WHERE on the reports (and which reports to use!) to get the contenders. Also not too comfortable picking profiles to use. I think that if I tried to print out the reports for even one race, the output would be tremendous! The think is I would really like to learn how to use this program properly, but the information is too little and too far between (quarterly newsletters.) Also, the cost of data for 1 race is prohibitive if you are trying to learn! Thus, I only use it a few times a year. Triple Crown races. I did not use it for the Breeders Cup this year as I have never had any luck with it. I'm sure the problem is between my ears and not the program!


A dedicated forum for discussion of the program would be a BIG help! Users could help each other.

Right now, I will read with interest the newsletters, but probably not use it.
I still have the data files if there is a better explanation of how to start, which reports to use, WHERE TO FIND THE INFORMATION on the reports. MANY numbers with cryptic abbreviations! I did print out the manual one time but that's 100+ pages.

Greg

[Space Monkey]

I'll ditto all the comments from the first 2 posts. I tried it a couple of years ago and found it to be "information overload". The manual was humungous, the cost high, and the explanations confusing. I called a couple of times and they were helpful. But it became apparent to me that I had to sit down with somebody with knowledge of the program, who would walk it thru with me. I'm confident that just one day would have done it for me. I asked if they could hook me up with somebody in the Tampa area and they said flat out no. They don't have any groups or share members names as they are concerned about file sharing. OK, fine. I gave it up.

[PandaMan]

The frustrating thing is all this info and instruction is supposedly right there, but written in such a way as to make it extremely difficult if not impossible to understand. I know I'm not the only one with this complaint about AW.

They use some bizarre type of instructional slight of hand where it seems as though they're explaining things but really are not. That makes me crazy.

[Space Monkey]

I'm waiting for someone with a handle on it to tell us what we're missing. Threads still young.

Off to Ray Jay. Go BULLS :ThmbUp:

[garyoz]

IMHO a program with serious methodological flaws--and I (in conjunction with others) spent a very long time and many dollars trying to make it work. Too many highly correlated variables in poorly designed (and statistically flawed) "regression" models. You are just backfitting way too many variables that measure the same thing and determining beta weights as if they are acting independently in a bivariate regression--then combining them in a multiple regression equation. That is the major reason the oddsline is a joke.

BRIS and Frandsen were great at marketing the product and charging for data. I bought the first version of ALW when it came out--I think 1996--just as Gary Hall was signing a deal with BRIS. I've watched the iterations and paid for several upgrades over the years.

My advice would be to move to Horsestreet or HTR if you want to use datamining/databases as a foundation for your handicapping.

Personally I have given up on applying multivariate statistics to handicapping. There has been much posted on this board about this topic.

[Space Monkey]

You are just backfitting way too many variables that measure the same thing and determining beta weights as if they are acting independently in a bivariate regression--then combining them in a multiple regression equation

Gary, I respect your obvious high mathematical intelligence, but can you express yourself so an average joe can understand what your talking about? :confused:

[garyoz]

Once again, this is just my opinion-- First, there are too many variables. You really don't need 80+ variables. Many of the variables measure the same thing (for example back speed and back class are very highly correlated). The way I believe the modeling works is that each variable is measured individually against win/lose (a statistical violation unless you use something called logistic regression or probit analysis). So, in our example, back class will get a value in "predicting" a winner, then back speed wil get a value (these are called beta weights in statistics). Then the program adds them together, not accounting for the fact that they measure pretty much the same thing (this is called correlation). In multiple regression, you should enter them in a stepwise fashion and the second variable probably would not be significant and would not be included in the model . Otherwise, in effect, you double count.

There are other things that I was dissatisfied with--like way too much noise in all the models, contradictory findings, too many contenders, too many favorites, etc. I could go on. Twenty years ago, I thought that multiple regression could be an effective tool in handicapping, plus I like building models and doing the analysis. Thus, I was really psyched when ALW came out, and tried to make it work.

My criticism is based upon having spent thousands of dollars on the program and upgrades and data files during the late 90's and earlier this decade--you get bought-in after awhile, hard to cut your losses of cash and time. Also, don't get sucked in by backfitting. Remember, you can always build a model that fits historic data--the key is getting it to forecast the future and beat the takeout in this game.

Hope that helps-- Be interested to hear if anyone has a different view.

[CBedo]

I used All-Ways for some time about five or so years ago, and would echo most of what Gary said. To compensate for some of the backfitting, I woudl split data into multipe data (usually by date) and backfit to one and test others. I did have some success doing it this way, but you definitely have to be careful. Also, the success I had was finding contenders and maybe some overlooked horses, not using the odds line which never correlated to reality. Also, the angle assistant (I think that's what it was called) was fun to play with, but again, was just taking too many variables and factors and backfitting. I found that the best thing the software was used for was to use the regressions of the angles to possibly give me ideas for further research.

[Space Monkey]

Thanks guys.

In the few times I tried the program, I agree, the odds line was mostly out to lunch. I guess "information overload" not only pertained to the user, but to the data that went into the program too.

[zerosky]

I'm toying with the idea of logistic regression, using the export function to get at the 87 handicapping factors.
XLstat has a months free trial which is ideal for purpose.

Preliminary results for santa anita has whittled the 87 down to about 5 or 6 depending on the type of race.
The next step is to do a two step model incorporating tote odds,
unfortunatly the export does not include the odds therefore they will have to be entered manually....yuk!

The data files even with bulk discount is expensive so this is likely to be a one off experiment for me.

[HUSKER55]

I wish I could help but I can't. However, Dave Schwartz has a special on his programs. The program is easy to get up and going. I am an idiot but I was up and going in a week and Dave answers his own phone.

Give it some thought before you spend more time and money

BTW, there must be at least 20 free videos you can watch when you need assistance and his forums have someone who always responds.

Good luck

[garyoz]

Based on my experience, I'd go with Horsestreet or exported data from HTR if I were going to do statistical analysis and/or datamining. IMHO HDW has much better and cleaner data than ALW and it is much cheaper.

[PandaMan]

All I'm after are clear-cut instructions on how to use the data. That's been my big gripe with ALL-Ways. For the life of me I cannot understand their explanation of how to use the software. A big pile of numbers I don't know how to use won't do me any good.

I looked at HTR, and it does seem to be a serious, high-quality product. I briefly took a look at their forum as well as newsletters. I just don't want to get involved in something else that gives me a pile of data and then sends me hunting through hundreds of articles to learn how to use it effectively. All I want are concise directions to get me started handicapping with it. I can learn the more advanced aspects as I go.

[garyoz]

All I'm after are clear-cut instructions on how to use the data. That's been my big gripe with ALL-Ways. For the life of me I cannot understand their explanation of how to use the software. A big pile of numbers I don't know how to use won't do me any good.

Yeah, agree, that's the problem... I don't think anyone can tell you how to use the output effectively. Maybe the best advice you are getting is to pass and move on.

[gregrph]

Panda,
As much as I would love to get All-Ways to work for me, the information is too disorganized and a long time coming. If they had a forum like this for their software, that would be great. I would LOVE to try HSH and Dave's recent special was tantalizing, I had to pass up. I don't have the confidence (in myself, not the program!) that I could learn enough fast enough to cover the cost of the program AND the data. (even though the data is much cheaper than All-Ways). The economy is kicking us in the butt right now (but staying afloat) and work, family, home responsibilities take up the majority of my time. I've heard nothing but good about HSH and Dave. I look forward to a time in the future when it would make sense for me to try it out. In the meantime, if I can make head or tails of Allways, I'll use that. I don't think it will happen though! I DO like reading the newsletters though!
Greg


All I'm after are clear-cut instructions on how to use the data. That's been my big gripe with ALL-Ways. For the life of me I cannot understand their explanation of how to use the software. A big pile of numbers I don't know how to use won't do me any good.

I looked at HTR, and it does seem to be a serious, high-quality product. I briefly took a look at their forum as well as newsletters. I just don't want to get involved in something else that gives me a pile of data and then sends me hunting through hundreds of articles to learn how to use it effectively. All I want are concise directions to get me started handicapping with it. I can learn the more advanced aspects as I go.

[PandaMan]

Thanks much for the input you've all given. At least now I don't think I have some sort of learning/comprehension disability. It's nice to know I'm not alone.

So if it comes down to HSH or HTR does anybody have an idea which gives better instruction for interpreting the data they provide? I mean the directions don't have to be short and sweet, just clear and understandable. Which of those two would be the better choice for somebody like me who'd like a bit of clarity when faced with heaps of data these types of programs provide?

[PandaMan]

Just found out about RDSS, and for me that sounds like it might be the right way to go. Instructional vids, a forum and what seems like a helpful moderator/admin team are making me lean in their direction. Also a learning curve that from what I understand is relatively tame compared to HSH and HTR.

I searched RDSS here and found mostly very positive comments. Went to their website and liked what I saw there, too.

[redeye007]

the most success with race profiles I experienced were the ones that I created manually not using the custom mra function. I would set up the race screens then run the impact value analysis, save the values, then run the top 3 analysis. from that information I would create profiles using the highest IV values for several factors. one profile I created once picked a $3,900 superfecta cold although I'm sure it was pure luck. a large database is a must. Be on the lookout for horses with huge hall and bris ff figures in the paceline report especially in maiden races. these figures produce some incredible longshot winners.

[PaceAdvantage]

Just found out about RDSS, and for me that sounds like it might be the right way to go. Instructional vids, a forum and what seems like a helpful moderator/admin team are making me lean in their direction. Also a learning curve that from what I understand is relatively tame compared to HSH and HTR.

I searched RDSS here and found mostly very positive comments. Went to their website and liked what I saw there, too.While you were over there, did you happen to read how Patrick the Truck Driver is doing? I'm very curious as to how his RDSS experience is going these days...

Patrick, if you're reading this, let us know!

[Houndog]

While you were over there, did you happen to read how Patrick the Truck Driver is doing? I'm very curious as to how his RDSS experience is going these days...

Patrick, if you're reading this, let us know!

PA I was wondering the same thing. I visit the Pace & Cap board nearly every day and from what I can tell his last post there was in October. He used to post often but perhaps he has other things to deal with at this time.

[Tom]

I haven't heard from him in a while either.

[Space Monkey]

PK joined the Tampa Bay Horseplayers site. He's still alive and well.

[PandaMan]

While you were over there, did you happen to read how Patrick the Truck Driver is doing?...
Nope. Don't know him and wasn't looking for him.

[sealman]

I used AllWays for a few years and always made a profit. I think the main thing is first to have a well-grounded handicapping point of view and use the myriad information AW gives you that focuses on your specific approach. So there were a lot of pages of information that I never printed or even looked at because they would have been a distraction. Incidentally, I don't use it now because my computer crashed a year ago and in my infinite wisdom I erased one of my backup disks and somehow damaged the other and I just don't have the heart (or the time) to start things up from scratch.

[gregrph]

Seal-How do you remember what you did to start learning it? If it can be understood (my problem is reading all the reports and figuring out all the abbreviations!), is it a worthwhile tool or are other programs a better choice?


I used AllWays for a few years and always made a profit. I think the main thing is first to have a well-grounded handicapping point of view and use the myriad information AW gives you that focuses on your specific approach. So there were a lot of pages of information that I never printed or even looked at because they would have been a distraction. Incidentally, I don't use it now because my computer crashed a year ago and in my infinite wisdom I erased one of my backup disks and somehow damaged the other and I just don't have the heart (or the time) to start things up from scratch.

[RichieP]

Just found out about RDSS, and for me that sounds like it might be the right way to go. Instructional vids, a forum and what seems like a helpful moderator/admin team are making me lean in their direction. Also a learning curve that from what I understand is relatively tame compared to HSH and HTR.

I searched RDSS here and found mostly very positive comments. Went to their website and liked what I saw there, too.

Hi Panda

Ted Craven is the programmer of RDSS.

His mother Barb C who is over SEVENTY years young and working races alone today is hammering the Woodbine card making 2 buck win bets and buck exacta boxes.

Right now she is up over 150 clams at that betting level having crushed the 6th and 8th races both win and exactas in addition to other goodies.

I have asked her at days end to send me her screen shots from her Adw showing ALL bets made along with her RDSS screen shots. I will post them in a Woodbine "closing day thread" I started this morning.

2 years ago she didnt know what a BL/BL (Bottom line Betting line on RDSS) was or what a speed rating was.

Uses NO database, breeding or trainer info etc. Nothing except the HORSE.

Posting in reference to "learning curves" mentioned about here AND because Ted is a real low key advertiser and deserves a shout out. He is also a good man and true friend.

He is also only few months away from complete rewrite and awesome new version of RDSS that will blow folks minds especially when put side by side with the current version.

** There is also a thread that Ted himself started that you can read a disappointed users eval of the same software package. Allows you feedback from both sides of the aisle if you will. As a caveat the disappointed poster has been thrown off the HTR forum for lying about race files and other stuff and Mr. Massa throws almost nobody off. Ted knew this going in and still posted his stuff anyway thinking it was the only right thing to do.**

http://paceandcap.com/forums/index.php

[Khanjar]

I began using ALL-WAYS (AW) in January of this year. It was my first experience with handicapping software. In my previous incarnation as a capper, in the early to mid 90's, I just used a programmable scientific calculator, DRF, and stacks and stacks of my own data on graph paper. Oh, and a rather large personal library of books on handicapping.

I initially began using AW with a misunderstanding. I thought that it was Brohamer/Sartin pace oriented. I thought it was going to save me from having to do any more work. Wrong. It is not Brohamer-based. It is database handicapping. You can simply rely on its automatic reports and selections, or you can run your own custom reports and make your own selections. But Brohamer type figures play a very minor role in it.

Long story short, I still use it, and with success. But it is primarily only a data source for me. I simply pull the data I want and go from there. The AW selections are strictly 'FYI' for me.

Here is all I use from AW when handicapping a typical race:

* Brohamer Plus Report (This is the only report I print. I hand write essential info from other reports on this one. I view all other reports on screen.)

* Past Performances Report

* Form By the Numbers Report

*Track Bias and Jockey/Trainer Report

Of course, there are numerous other reports readily available should I want to see any of them. For me, these often include the All Factors Values Reports, Top Ten Ranking Report, Spot Play & Final Process Report and Potentially Dangerous Non-Contenders Report.

AW works for me, as I synthesize the info my own way. But essentially, it merely saves me the considerable time it would require to maintain all the needed data myself. I know, because I used to do that. I really am little interested in "database handicapping", though I do occasionally run some custom reports and profiles from AW. I feel I am paying more than I should for the few essentials that I need. All I really need is this:

*Current Brohamer data for each horse and track. (Franctional FPS, Compounds, %-E and Track Models)

*Current Hall data (especially Hall Weighted Averages)

* Past Performance data

* Hambleton Form Points

* Quirin Speed Points

Considering the mucho time I save by not doing all that number crunching myself, $7.00 per card (Gold Club) is a bargain, I suppose.

So this post is not a plug for All-Ways. Just saying that I have learned how to find and use the data in it that I need and use. But I think the whole AW concept is a type of database handicapping - something I don't really do and, in fact, am skeptical of. But then, it depends on what we mean by "database handicapping". In at least one sense, it is what I do, since virtually all the data I use comes from a database. Maybe one day soon I will post my thoughts on that subject.