Would Like Some Stats

[Pell Mell]

I have been doing some research but since I have no program, nor the computer know how, I have been doing it manually and it's very tedious. I want to know what % of all winning horses are bet down below their morning line.

I don't mean 8/5 or what ever but horses that are any odds on the morning line. I used to get a lot of overlays, I don't make my own line, but morning line overlays. It seems in the past year if my horses get no action on the board they are off the board. Even if the morning line is 20/1, I find that if they don't go to 19/1 or lower they seldom score.

Since I don't have much of a data base on this it could just be my imagination.

Anyone have any kind of stats on this?

[DanG]

Last 5 years approximately, minimum 1,000 samples.

• +1 = bet down or equal to MLO
• -1 drifted above the MLO.

Hope it helps, Happy Thanksgiving PM:

MLO TOTE +- PLAYS WINS W% WP% WPS% W_ROI IV
1.2 -1 1045 287 27% 50% 67% $0.78 2.24
1.2 1 4091 2066 51% 72% 83% $0.83 4.12
1.4 -1 1775 474 27% 50% 69% $0.80 2.18
1.4 1 6335 3013 48% 69% 81% $0.83 3.88
1.6 -1 4946 1232 25% 47% 65% $0.81 2.03
1.6 1 14961 6648 44% 67% 80% $0.84 3.63
1.8 -1 5668 1247 22% 45% 62% $0.77 1.80
1.8 1 13448 5522 41% 64% 78% $0.83 3.35
2.0 -1 22585 4596 20% 41% 59% $0.79 1.66
2.0 1 41623 15739 38% 61% 75% $0.82 3.09
2.5 -1 43316 7409 17% 36% 53% $0.80 1.40
2.5 1 71820 23852 33% 55% 70% $0.82 2.71
3.0 -1 60404 8690 14% 32% 48% $0.79 1.18
3.0 1 77869 22602 29% 50% 66% $0.82 2.37
3.5 -1 58377 7270 12% 28% 44% $0.79 1.02
3.5 1 60295 15457 26% 46% 62% $0.81 2.09
4.0 -1 74169 8118 11% 25% 41% $0.79 0.89
4.0 1 66440 15156 23% 43% 59% $0.80 1.86
4.5 -1 46790 4470 10% 23% 38% $0.78 0.78
4.5 1 37650 7976 21% 40% 56% $0.81 1.73
5.0 -1 87888 7420 8% 20% 35% $0.77 0.69
5.0 1 57945 11403 20% 38% 54% $0.82 1.61
6.0 -1 136074 9586 7% 18% 31% $0.77 0.58
6.0 1 82466 14316 17% 34% 50% $0.81 1.42
7.0 -1 2096 109 5% 13% 25% $0.68 0.42
7.0 1 1402 225 16% 31% 46% $0.72 1.31
8.0 -1 149832 7873 5% 14% 25% $0.76 0.43
8.0 1 84613 12026 14% 29% 45% $0.82 1.16
10.0 -1 125205 5066 4% 11% 20% $0.75 0.33
10.0 1 62270 7374 12% 25% 39% $0.81 0.97
12.0 -1 131448 4273 3% 9% 17% $0.72 0.27
12.0 1 56674 5677 10% 22% 35% $0.81 0.82
15.0 -1 135221 3076 2% 7% 13% $0.65 0.19
15.0 1 44804 3601 8% 18% 31% $0.78 0.66
20.0 -1 157258 2272 1% 4% 9% $0.57 0.12
20.0 1 35515 2090 6% 14% 24% $0.71 0.48
25.0 -1 1893 20 1% 3% 6% $0.42 0.09
25.0 1 1241 51 4% 10% 18% $0.51 0.34
30.0 -1 55723 378 1% 2% 5% $0.38 0.06
30.0 1 8593 267 3% 8% 16% $0.57 0.25

[eqitec]

Does this data reflect adjusted morning lines after scratches?

[Handiman]

Nice work Dan.

I am assuming that the +1 odds moves down the chart most of the way shows break even less the take out. Would that be right?


Handi :)

[Dave Schwartz]

Okay... You asked for it.

The sample is June 2008 thru May 2009, dirt, (non-poly), fast, non-maidens. Races with entries have been removed.


First, let's take a look at odds divided by ML. More specifically, this is the "booking percentage" of the odds (i.e. 5/2=29%) divided by the booking percentage of the adjusted morning line.


2008/2009.
432-OddsAL1
----------------------------------------------------------------
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
0.25 4,801 40 0.8 $0.86 0.07 0.57 0.34
0.50 26,524 729 2.7 $1.24 0.23 0.82 0.59
0.75 30,391 1,964 6.5 $1.46 0.52 0.89 0.79
1.00 26,744 3,221 12.0 $1.60 0.95 0.96 0.98
1.25 19,958 3,544 17.8 $1.62 1.39 0.98 1.09
1.50 13,064 3,020 23.1 $1.65 1.82 1.01 1.19
1.75 7,504 1,963 26.2 $1.62 2.08 0.99 1.21
2.00 3,917 1,185 30.3 $1.71 2.44 1.05 1.31
2.25 2,068 610 29.5 $1.69 2.43 1.03 1.29
2.50 1,098 346 31.5 $1.68 2.62 1.05 1.33
above 1,502 474 31.6 $1.82 2.71 1.10 1.40

Total 137,571 17,096 12.4 $1.49 1.00 0.97



Horse bet down significantly (the bottom groups) are far better bets.


In our software the button that produces this is the "B" (bet down) button. Very powerful, but generally, not profitable.

[Dave Schwartz]

Next, we look at this factor broken down by odds ranges:



2008/2009.
201-PubCh+432-OddsAL1
----------------------------------------------------------------
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
3/5 1.00 14 9 64.3 $1.99 4.01 1.20 1.65
3/5 1.25 148 90 60.8 $1.86 3.75 1.14 1.56
3/5 1.50 349 201 57.6 $1.78 3.71 1.08 1.49
3/5 1.75 476 277 58.2 $1.80 3.86 1.09 1.52
3/5 2.00 407 229 56.3 $1.71 3.92 1.05 1.48
3/5 2.25 258 142 55.0 $1.68 4.05 1.03 1.47
3/5 2.50 174 104 59.8 $1.81 4.73 1.10 1.61
3/5 above 159 112 70.4 $2.08 5.72 1.25 1.86

6/5 0.75 4 4 100.0 $4.25 6.65 2.56 3.31
6/5 1.00 101 39 38.6 $1.62 2.32 0.99 1.24
6/5 1.25 748 294 39.3 $1.65 2.52 1.00 1.28
6/5 1.50 1,532 619 40.4 $1.66 2.79 1.01 1.32
6/5 1.75 1,432 582 40.6 $1.65 3.00 1.00 1.34
6/5 2.00 863 361 41.8 $1.70 3.28 1.02 1.39
6/5 2.25 411 185 45.0 $1.84 3.57 1.10 1.50
6/5 2.50 223 98 43.9 $1.79 3.53 1.07 1.47
6/5 above 237 100 42.2 $1.71 3.49 1.03 1.42

5/2 0.50 1 0.0 $0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
5/2 0.75 225 51 22.7 $1.58 1.39 0.95 1.06
5/2 1.00 2,842 704 24.8 $1.63 1.68 0.98 1.14
5/2 1.25 5,796 1,547 26.7 $1.67 1.95 1.00 1.20
5/2 1.50 4,956 1,414 28.5 $1.72 2.20 1.04 1.27
5/2 1.75 2,653 728 27.4 $1.62 2.19 0.97 1.21
5/2 2.00 1,276 396 31.0 $1.86 2.49 1.11 1.39
5/2 2.25 611 168 27.5 $1.65 2.24 0.98 1.23
5/2 2.50 300 89 29.7 $1.81 2.39 1.08 1.34
5/2 above 561 171 30.5 $1.82 2.56 1.10 1.38

9/2 0.50 37 5 13.5 $1.52 0.84 0.86 0.88
9/2 0.75 2,069 285 13.8 $1.42 0.96 0.84 0.89
9/2 1.00 6,699 1,123 16.8 $1.62 1.26 0.97 1.06
9/2 1.25 5,635 970 17.2 $1.65 1.36 0.97 1.08
9/2 1.50 2,828 487 17.2 $1.64 1.40 0.97 1.09
9/2 1.75 1,354 218 16.1 $1.53 1.32 0.91 1.02
9/2 2.00 724 152 21.0 $1.97 1.75 1.19 1.33
9/2 2.25 453 84 18.5 $1.76 1.60 1.05 1.19
9/2 2.50 255 44 17.3 $1.65 1.51 0.98 1.11
9/2 above 381 70 18.4 $1.75 1.66 1.03 1.19

6 0.50 264 35 13.3 $1.92 0.89 1.12 1.08
6 0.75 3,838 416 10.8 $1.51 0.81 0.89 0.89
6 1.00 5,076 617 12.2 $1.66 0.96 0.98 1.00
6 1.25 2,541 305 12.0 $1.64 0.98 0.97 0.99
6 1.50 1,367 144 10.5 $1.43 0.88 0.86 0.88
6 1.75 782 101 12.9 $1.76 1.12 1.04 1.08
6 2.00 351 31 8.8 $1.17 0.78 0.71 0.74
6 2.25 183 22 12.0 $1.65 1.07 0.97 1.02
6 2.50 74 8 10.8 $1.43 1.00 0.87 0.91
6 above 112 14 12.5 $1.62 1.15 1.00 1.05

9 0.25 1 0.0 $0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
9 0.50 1,197 85 7.1 $1.33 0.51 0.80 0.73
9 0.75 5,819 455 7.8 $1.46 0.61 0.86 0.81
9 1.00 4,037 357 8.8 $1.63 0.72 0.97 0.92
9 1.25 2,427 200 8.2 $1.54 0.70 0.90 0.87
9 1.50 1,168 111 9.5 $1.78 0.83 1.03 1.00
9 1.75 519 44 8.5 $1.54 0.75 0.92 0.89
9 2.00 184 11 6.0 $1.10 0.53 0.64 0.63
9 2.25 131 7 5.3 $1.03 0.51 0.60 0.59
9 2.50 60 2 3.3 $0.62 0.31 0.35 0.35
9 above 42 5 11.9 $1.98 1.18 1.20 1.21

15 0.25 21 0.0 $0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
15 0.50 3,726 204 5.5 $1.50 0.41 0.89 0.75
15 0.75 7,233 438 6.1 $1.65 0.48 0.96 0.83
15 1.00 4,803 246 5.1 $1.37 0.44 0.80 0.71
15 1.25 1,927 118 6.1 $1.59 0.54 0.94 0.84
15 1.50 736 38 5.2 $1.32 0.46 0.81 0.71
15 1.75 245 12 4.9 $1.30 0.45 0.74 0.67
15 2.00 103 5 4.9 $1.31 0.47 0.69 0.66
15 2.25 19 2 10.5 $3.17 1.03 1.67 1.56
15 2.50 12 1 8.3 $1.92 0.78 1.31 1.13
15 above 10 2 20.0 $4.76 2.06 2.79 2.65

24 0.25 201 6 3.0 $1.25 0.22 0.79 0.58
24 0.50 5,102 185 3.6 $1.54 0.29 0.90 0.70
24 0.75 5,924 233 3.9 $1.58 0.33 0.95 0.74
24 1.00 2,304 95 4.1 $1.63 0.37 0.98 0.78
24 1.25 595 16 2.7 $1.13 0.25 0.62 0.51
24 1.50 119 5 4.2 $1.81 0.41 0.99 0.83
24 1.75 39 1 2.6 $0.89 0.25 0.59 0.47
24 2.00 7 0.0 $0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
24 2.25 2 0.0 $0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

35 0.25 653 9 1.4 $0.88 0.10 0.54 0.36
35 0.50 6,587 130 2.0 $1.26 0.17 0.75 0.53
35 0.75 3,900 66 1.7 $1.05 0.15 0.63 0.45
35 1.00 779 29 3.7 $2.11 0.35 1.33 0.96
35 1.25 131 4 3.1 $1.79 0.30 1.04 0.78
35 1.50 8 1 12.5 $6.80 1.17 4.64 3.24
35 1.75 4 0.0 $0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
35 2.00 2 0.0 $0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Above 0.25 3,925 25 0.6 $0.84 0.06 0.55 0.31
Above 0.50 9,610 85 0.9 $0.94 0.08 0.60 0.36
Above 0.75 1,379 16 1.2 $1.05 0.11 0.69 0.43
Above 1.00 89 2 2.2 $1.87 0.23 1.26 0.81
Above 1.25 10 0.0 $0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Above 1.50 1 0.0 $0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00



Permit me to summarize:

3/5 and below
Extremely overbet (2.50+) is a good thing. This corresponds to a horse that was 3/1 ML going off at 3/5 or below.

Horses with ML of 3/5 did well.

The ones in the middle not so well.


4/5 to 6/5
Inconclusive, with a small edge going to the overbet horse.

7/5 to 5/2
Overbet is good.

3/1 to 9/2
Overbet is better, but nothing really helps. This is a new situation, caused by Whale money (IMHO). The horses that wind up in this odds range are the low-priced cast-offs of the whale crowd.

5/1 to 6/1
Only good news is the very underbet horse. This is generally the horse that the whales did not believe in. A horse in the "0.50" category was 5/2 ML and went off at 5/1.


7/1 to 9/1
Somewhat inconclusive, but if you look close you will see a hump in the middle, which says that it is better to be ML right around the actual odds.


10/1 to 15/1
Now we are getting somewhere! Clearly, being bet down is a good thing here!


16/1 to 24/1
Hardly matters, but being slightly bet up seems to be a good thing. (Hump in the middle again.)


25/1 to 35/1
The only bright spot is slightly bet down. (How the heck does that happen at 35/1? Apparently it does.)


36/1 up
Forget about it.

[Dave Schwartz]

Finally, let's examine this from a simple public choice standpoint. (Note that the actual definition of "front half" is 1/2 the field plus 1 horse. Thus, in an 8-horse field, FH=4,5.)



2008/2009.
1-rPubCh+432-OddsAL1
----------------------------------------------------------------
WIN BETS
Field1 Field2 Starts Pays Pct $Net IV PIV HV
---------------------------------------------------------------
1st 0.75 34 9 26.5 $1.55 1.85 0.96 1.14
1st 1.00 940 260 27.7 $1.60 2.00 0.98 1.19
1st 1.25 3,637 1,177 32.4 $1.71 2.39 1.03 1.29
1st 1.50 4,706 1,688 35.9 $1.74 2.71 1.04 1.35
1st 1.75 3,568 1,340 37.6 $1.66 2.89 1.01 1.33
1st 2.00 2,093 843 40.3 $1.73 3.16 1.04 1.40
1st 2.25 1,087 445 40.9 $1.73 3.30 1.04 1.41
1st 2.50 605 266 44.0 $1.79 3.59 1.09 1.49
1st above 793 334 42.1 $1.84 3.58 1.11 1.51

2nd 0.50 27 3 11.1 $1.51 0.75 0.92 0.89
2nd 0.75 975 137 14.1 $1.35 1.00 0.83 0.88
2nd 1.00 4,419 900 20.4 $1.67 1.52 0.99 1.13
2nd 1.25 5,221 1,129 21.6 $1.65 1.65 0.98 1.14
2nd 1.50 3,182 732 23.0 $1.67 1.79 1.00 1.18
2nd 1.75 1,547 338 21.8 $1.56 1.73 0.94 1.11
2nd 2.00 755 208 27.5 $2.04 2.22 1.22 1.44
2nd 2.25 400 96 24.0 $1.82 1.96 1.10 1.29
2nd 2.50 212 50 23.6 $1.88 1.96 1.09 1.30
2nd above 364 88 24.2 $1.85 2.06 1.11 1.32

3rd 0.50 278 21 7.6 $1.18 0.52 0.75 0.69
3rd 0.75 3,007 360 12.0 $1.50 0.88 0.90 0.91
3rd 1.00 5,667 813 14.3 $1.53 1.08 0.92 0.97
3rd 1.25 3,930 629 16.0 $1.64 1.24 0.98 1.06
3rd 1.50 2,007 312 15.5 $1.58 1.22 0.94 1.02
3rd 1.75 947 137 14.5 $1.54 1.17 0.90 0.99
3rd 2.00 505 88 17.4 $1.66 1.44 1.08 1.16
3rd 2.25 278 39 14.0 $1.46 1.18 0.85 0.95
3rd 2.50 134 18 13.4 $1.38 1.13 0.81 0.90
3rd above 214 34 15.9 $1.62 1.41 0.98 1.09

FH 0.25 54 0.0 $0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
FH 0.50 2,895 163 5.6 $1.41 0.49 0.88 0.77
FH 0.75 9,700 739 7.6 $1.52 0.65 0.88 0.84
FH 1.00 8,688 835 9.6 $1.60 0.83 0.98 0.95
FH 1.25 4,769 445 9.3 $1.54 0.82 0.91 0.91
FH 1.50 2,324 236 10.2 $1.60 0.89 0.95 0.95
FH 1.75 1,152 133 11.5 $1.79 1.03 1.05 1.07
FH 2.00 467 42 9.0 $1.32 0.81 0.80 0.82
FH 2.25 270 23 8.5 $1.29 0.78 0.75 0.78
FH 2.50 128 12 9.4 $1.35 0.87 0.81 0.84
FH above 124 18 14.5 $2.06 1.32 1.20 1.26

RH 0.25 4,747 40 0.8 $0.87 0.07 0.58 0.34
RH 0.50 23,324 542 2.3 $1.22 0.19 0.80 0.56
RH 0.75 16,675 719 4.3 $1.42 0.34 0.89 0.70
RH 1.00 7,030 413 5.9 $1.61 0.46 0.94 0.81
RH 1.25 2,401 164 6.8 $1.55 0.52 0.96 0.83
RH 1.50 845 52 6.2 $1.45 0.47 0.79 0.72
RH 1.75 290 15 5.2 $0.86 0.39 0.62 0.54
RH 2.00 97 4 4.1 $0.99 0.33 0.50 0.48
RH 2.25 33 7 21.2 $3.86 1.68 2.54 2.28
RH 2.50 19 0.0 $0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
RH above 7 0.0 $0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00



1st -3rd choices
Should be bet down. Period.

Front Half
Almost doesn't matter, with the exception being those that were very bet down. Note that this represents one play in every 138 races.


Rear Half
Forget about it (again).



Hope this helps.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[kenwoodallpromos]

I like that!

[DanG]

Eqitec: Does this data reflect adjusted morning lines after scratches?
No it does not. (Side note; surprisingly very little impact in ‘off the turf’ races where logic would dictate the MLO is its most vulnerable; make of that what you will)

Handiman: I am assuming that the +1 odds moves down the chart most of the way shows break even less the take out. Would that be right?
Correct Handi and I think David has taken this to warp speed so its back to basting the turkey. :cool:

[Dave Schwartz]

Does this data reflect adjusted morning lines after scratches?

Yes, and even before scratches it is adjusted.



Dave

[misscashalot]

Yes, and even before scratches it is adjusted.



Dave

are u saying that these odds are not morning line odds?

[Dave Schwartz]

are u saying that these odds are not morning line odds?

That is correct.

They are "normalized" to the correct pool percentages relative to this track (as they should be).

Of course, most of the time there is little or no change - perhaps a fraction of a point - like 5/2 might become 2.63:1 but still 5/2.

It is sijmply more accurate this way.


Dave

[Pell Mell]

Thanks for the replies.

I found Dan's info to be just what I wanted for my purpose.

I thank Dave for his info but I find it to be somewhat erratic and hairsplitting. I only needed a close idea and Dan's stuff seems to follow a nice linear pattern, very easy to use.

I really don't like trying to split hairs anywhere in horse racing. Close is close enough.

Thanks Again :)