Why do horses emerging from their maidens struggle first time against winners

[menifee]

I know this seems like an obvious question (they are facing better horses), but is there something more to it? I see horses that have dynamite speed figures first time out really struggle second time out.

It is a great play against at all tracks because these horses are way overbet as I believe the average bettor gets suckered by that dynamite maiden win. An example of that was American Lion today (I know he won), but he seemed to really struggle against a field that really was not that special.

[Bochall]

Thats about it in a nutshell...now they must face horses who have all won at least once. One of my pet maiden breaker angles is with horses who take awhile (say 7 or more tries) to break their maiden but finally do so with a big win. They offer value because of their lifetime record but are actually in fantastic form. Like them even more if returned quickly. Those who win big in their first or second start are often well bet next out v winners.

[Tuffmug]

Check the difference in pace between Maiden and 1x races!

[Overlay]

One of my pet maiden breaker angles is with horses who take awhile (say 7 or more tries) to break their maiden but finally do so with a big win. They offer value because of their lifetime record but are actually in fantastic form.

I've also capitalized on that on multiple occasions. (In addition, I've found that a duel in the stretch while breaking their maiden has the same effect. The public will think that the horse is not only moving up in class, but will also have been knocked off form by the exertion of the last race, when the drive is in fact a positive factor, reflecting favorably on the horse's "heart" and stamina.)

[RichieP]

Often maiden winners were allowed to loaf or relax around the turn as they are facing inferior opponents.

When they step up to meet winners they are often forced to run much faster in that race segment (F2 or turn time) and their final time or "fig" suffers.

Old Sartin guideline/feedback that still holds water imo is to check the turn times of today's race and see how the mdn winner "looks" there against opponents.

[markgoldie]

Check the difference in pace between Maiden and 1x races!
Correct, and is what Richie P is saying as well. IMO, one of the most essential things to understand is when the Beyers lie, so to speak. We've been over this territory before, but slower paces lead to faster final times and hence the inflated Beyers. This effect holds in all classes but with maidens it is a bit more pronounced since many maiden fields contain habitual losers who refuse to win under any conditions. But the graduate has to face animals who have at least shown that under the right circumstances they can and will win. Hence, the class jump may be even more potent than it looks on paper.

[misscashalot]

I love to see an odds on MSW winner who won on the front end big going into NW1. This is probably the most overbet situation of all. I always bet against.

[andymays]

Cause they're usually going up in class! ;)

[bisket]

one thing i look at is italics on the winners in the maiden races the horse who just broke his maiden ran with. stick with me on that last sentence :D i couldn't figure any other way to describe it. i use drf pps and italics mean the horse won the next race also. so he lost to a strong maiden winner, and may mean with other things to indicate this also this horse has a shot at winning first off the maiden. anything that can attach class to a maiden winner is helpful :ThmbUp:

[toetoe]

But do they really struggle to the point that their impact value is under 1 ? After all, somebody must win the allowance race. Are you saying that experience getting whipped at the allowance condition improves the chances that eventually a certain runner will win ?

I maintain that maiden graduates do better than you think, and that their return is also better than you think.

Many horses that somehow managed to maidenbreak will be stuck in the first condition forever, so a decent maiden graduate will pass right by them at first crack, right ?

[the_fat_man]

No doubt because they BOUNCE. :rolleyes:

[DeanT]

I agree with most on this thread.

It depends who you ask, though, as sometimes you will get different answers.

If you ask:

Andymays..... "It is because they switch from dirt in MSW to artificial surfaces for their next start. Artificial is evil, the horses know it, I know it, we all know it. When the horses find out they are going to race on it they get scared and lose"

Richard Dutrow...... "It is because Kent Desormeaux rides a lot of next out maiden winners"

Jerry Jam ..... "It's Richard Shapiro's fault"

TOC ..... "I don't know what it is, but we need more money from bettors for purses so when these horses lose, they still earn money"

46zilzal ...... "the genome project shows that this is self evident and evidently players can not, nor will not modify behavior which causes them to not see these situations forthwith, forthwithedly speaking"

HANA...... "takeout is too high"

[andymays]

I agree with most on this thread.

It depends who you ask, though, as sometimes you will get different answers.

If you ask:

Andymays..... "It is because they switch from dirt in MSW to artificial surfaces for their next start. Artificial is evil, the horses know it, I know it, we all know it. When the horses find out they are going to race on it they get scared and lose"

Richard Dutrow...... "It is because Kent Desormeaux rides a lot of next out maiden winners"

Jerry Jam ..... "It's Richard Shapiro's fault"

TOC ..... "I don't know what it is, but we need more money from bettors for purses so when these horses lose, they still earn money"

46zilzal ...... "the genome project shows that this is self evident and evidently players can not, nor will not modify behavior which causes them to not see these situations forthwith, forthwithedly speaking"

HANA...... "takeout is too high"


:lol:

You forgot that God knows it too. And it is Richard Shapiros fault damit! ;)

[Mike_412]

That's hysterical Dean. If you could just add because Matt Carothers picked the horse during :58 Flat on TVG then the list would be complete imo. :)

[cmoore]

The MATurity column presents a ratio of non-maiden winners to maiden winners before May 1st of their third year. In other words, to determine which sires produce foals that continue to win at a young age after breaking their maiden. The number of winners of Race Types 7 and 8 are summed and divided by the sum of the number of winners of Race Types 5 and 6. This number is then multiplied by 100 in order to present a whole number.

Maturity Report link below..

http://www.breedingwinners.com/aspspecial/pdfdisplay.asp?filename=topsirereports/MaturityFactor.PDF

[CBedo]

No doubt because they BOUNCE. :rolleyes::lol: Exactly!

[cmoore]

The MATurity column presents a ratio of non-maiden winners to maiden winners before May 1st of their third year. In other words, to determine which sires produce foals that continue to win at a young age after breaking their maiden. The number of winners of Race Types 7 and 8 are summed and divided by the sum of the number of winners of Race Types 5 and 6. This number is then multiplied by 100 in order to present a whole number.

Maturity Report link below..

http://www.breedingwinners.com/aspspecial/pdfdisplay.asp?filename=topsirereports/MaturityFactor.PDF

Average maturity factor is a 41....That list is of the top sires.

Freq 5(dirt) and 6(turf) are against maidens..

Freq 7(turf) and 8(dirt) are against winners...

[therussmeister]

Check the difference in pace between Maiden and 1x races!

Specifically the turn time, the time from 2 furlongs - 4 furlongs in a sprint, is usually quite a bit slower in maiden races than in 1x races.

[JohnGalt1]

Obviously the move up in class and faster pace if it's a large difference.

The trainer may mave been too optimistic.

An example is the maiden winner in 1:12.0 losing it's next race by 8 lengths to a 1:10.2.

It appears he ran a bad race.

But if he ran in a NW1 low or reasonable claiming race his 1:12 will at least be competitive.

[Steve 'StatMan']

one thing i look at is italics on the winners in the maiden races the horse who just broke his maiden ran with. stick with me on that last sentence :D i couldn't figure any other way to describe it. i use drf pps and italics mean the horse won the next race also. so he lost to a strong maiden winner, and may mean with other things to indicate this also this horse has a shot at winning first off the maiden. anything that can attach class to a maiden winner is helpful :ThmbUp:

This is the Key Race Method, noting which races produced next out winners, generally indicating stronger past races/fields.

[Bobzilla]

By and large I agree that trying winners for the first time can be one of the toughest jumps in class there is for a young horse, and those who broke their maiden in such a manner as to run an efficient race that produced a SF that jumps off the page are often times a good play against. When a horse can quickly go through their conditions, beating not only N1X at first asking but multiple winners as well, then that animal may very well be competitive when it soon finds itself in stakes events.

On the lower end of the class spectrum, however, I have had some success playing horses who are coming off of a maiden claiming win and are faced against a cheap N2L conditional claiming group. The lower the tag the more likely this will be successful. I believe at any given circuit there are going to be times over the course of the racing calendar when maiden claimers may collectively be a stronger group than cheap one time winners who have had ample time to get that second win and have been unable to do so.

[bisket]

heres an excellant race highlighting what's being discussed on this thread. drf has a race of the day on their website, and this is the race they selected. who do you like?
http://drf.com/formulator-web/FreeRace.do?trackId=AQU&country=USA&raceDate=20091125&dayEvening=D&raceNumber=8#past-performance-race/8

[Sekrah]

I know this seems like an obvious question (they are facing better horses), but is there something more to it? I see horses that have dynamite speed figures first time out really struggle second time out.

It is a great play against at all tracks because these horses are way overbet as I believe the average bettor gets suckered by that dynamite maiden win. An example of that was American Lion today (I know he won), but he seemed to really struggle against a field that really was not that special.


Easy.

Because Class Handicapping crushes Speed Handicapping every day of the week.

Of course they'll continue to use their excuses such as "oh, he reacted to a big effort" which I am convinced more than ever is complete bullspit.

[bisket]

the two with the least amount of experience ended up in the winners circle
http://drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=AQU&CTY=USA&DATE=20091125&RN=8

[cmoore]

the two with the least amount of experience ended up in the winners circle
http://drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=AQU&CTY=USA&DATE=20091125&RN=8


Unbridled's Song runners are a classy bunch..That sires offspring has had the most wins at 41k or higher over the last 3 year in that race type. Vindication is a distant 2nd..Plus they do well above average off long layoffs.

[bisket]

the best thing you can do as a handicapper is attach class to a non winner of 1. if your able to do that these races are not very complicated to sort out and pick the winner. thats the question the trainer is trying to answer as well! where does this horse fit?

[Tampa Russ]

By and large I agree that trying winners for the first time can be one of the toughest jumps in class there is for a young horse, and those who broke their maiden in such a manner as to run an efficient race that produced a SF that jumps off the page are often times a good play against. When a horse can quickly go through their conditions, beating not only N1X at first asking but multiple winners as well, then that animal may very well be competitive when it soon finds itself in stakes events.

On the lower end of the class spectrum, however, I have had some success playing horses who are coming off of a maiden claiming win and are faced against a cheap N2L conditional claiming group. The lower the tag the more likely this will be successful. I believe at any given circuit there are going to be times over the course of the racing calendar when maiden claimers may collectively be a stronger group than cheap one time winners who have had ample time to get that second win and have been unable to do so.

Just watched one of these (mighty Silver) win right back in the 5th at MNR at 7/2. c5000n2l