NCAA Football Ratings

[highnote]

I can't remember if I posted these last week, so here they are (again?) -- my ratings for NCAA football. Take them with a grain of salt!

This is a who-beat-who system. Every team starts the season with 1000 points. Then each team's rating is adjusted depending on the ratings of the teams that play each other, the point differential, the number of points scored and home field advantage. As you can see, it's fairly accurate. I'm not saying it is correct, but it is in the ballpark. And if you are a bettor then this may have some value. A team with a big rating should beat a team with a small rating -- all else being equal.



Texas 1080.3
TCU 1075.4
Alabama 1070.6
Florida 1070.3
Cincinnati 1066.3
Boise St. 1065.3
Ohio St. 1059.6
Pittsburgh 1058.6
Georgia Tech 1057.1
Oklahoma 1056.1
Oregon 1053.8
Penn St. 1051.7
Nevada 1048.4
Clemson 1048.3
Oklahoma St. 1047.3
Stanford 1046.6
Nebraska 1046.2
Mississippi 1044.4
Arkansas 1042.9
Rutgers 1042.1
Virginia Tech 1041.5
LSU 1039.9
Iowa 1036.9
BYU 1036.7
Boston Coll. 1035.7
Air Force 1035.6
Oregon St. 1035.5
Texas Tech 1034.6
Cent. Michigan 1034.1
Wisconsin 1032.8
Houston 1032.6
Temple 1032.4
Navy 1030.2
North Carolina 1029.9
Utah 1029.1
Northern Illinois 1029
Miami (FL) 1028.4
West Virginia 1026.2
Kentucky 1023.2
Michigan St. 1022.9
Tennessee 1022.7
California 1021.3
Missouri 1021
USC 1020.4
Auburn 1020.2
Southern Miss 1020.2
Georgia 1019.3
Fresno St. 1019.1
Arizona 1019
Notre Dame 1018.1
South Florida 1016.4
Northwestern 1014.4
Middle Tenn. St. 1012.9
Connecticut 1012.7
Ohio 1012.5
Troy 1012
Florida St. 1010.5
UCF 1010.3
Kansas St. 1008.2
William & Mary 1007.2
Richmond 1005.9
Duke 1005.7
New Hampshire 1005.2
SMU 1005.1
Kansas 1004.6
Villanova 1004.4
East Carolina 1003.8
Minnesota 1003.5
Mississippi St. 1003.2
South Carolina 1002.9
LA Monroe 1002.8
Central Arkansas 1002.4
Iowa St. 1002.2
Tulsa 1001.1
UCLA 999.6
Idaho 999
Arizona St. 998.3
Texas A&M 997.8
UAB 997.8
Bowling Green 997.3
Kent St. 997.1
Northern Iowa 996.2
Marshall 995.7
South Dakota St. 995.6
Southern Ill. 995.6
Massachusetts 995.3
Samford 995.3
Prairie View A&M 995.2
Appalachian St. 995
James Madison 994.8
N.C. State 994.4
Stephen F. Austin 994.1
Delaware 993.6
Virginia Military 993.5
Baylor 993.4
Michigan 993.4
Liberty 992.5
Hofstra 991.6
McNeese St. 991.4
Louisiana Tech 991.3
North Dakota St. 991.2
Weber St. 991.1
S. Carolina St. 990.8
Maine 990.5
Indiana St. 990.3
Louisville 990.3
Southern 989.4
North Dakota 988.8
Elon 988.1
Portland St. 988.1
San Diego St. 988.1
W. Michigan 988.1
Florida A&M 987.8
Wake Forest 987.8
Georgia Southern 987.5
Purdue 987.2
Texas St. 986.9
Eastern Illinois 986.6
Virginia 986.3
Towson 986.2
Hawaii 986.1
Illinois St. 986.1
Citadel 985.9
Illinois 985.8
Sacramento St. 985.6
Youngstown St. 985.6
Eastern Kentucky 985.5
Northern Arizona 985.2
Tenn-Martin 985.2
Western Ill. 985
Rhode Island 984.9
SE Louisiana 984.9
Jackson St. 984.7
Missouri St. 984.7
N.C. Central 984.7
Buffalo 984.1
Jacksonville St. 984.1
Montana St. 983.8
Eastern Wash. 983.7
Delaware St. 982.9
Syracuse 982.7
Grambling St. 982.6
Cal Poly 982.5
Western Carolina 982.5
Howard 982.3
Northern Colorado 982.2
Morgan St. 981.7
Wyoming 980.9
Indiana 980.8
Southern Utah 980.8
Utah St. 980.7
Colorado 980.6
Sam Houston St. 980.5
Army 980.2
Coastal Carolina 980.2
Washington 979.8
Northeastern 979.7
SE Missouri St. 979.4
Florida Atlantic 979
Furman 978.4
Arkansas St. 978.3
Miss. Valley St. 977.5
UNLV 977.3
Murray St. 977.2
UC Davis 976.8
UTEP 976.5
Wofford 976.3
LA Lafayette 975.1
Gardner-Webb 971.9
Tennessee Tech 970.3
Florida Intl. 969.8
Vanderbilt 969.5
Akron 966.9
Toledo 966.2
Charleston S. 966
Alcorn St. 965.5
Texas Southern 965.3
Northwestern St. 964.8
Colorado St. 964.4
Maryland 964
Memphis 962.4
Idaho St. 962.2
Ball St. 961.5
Nicholls St. 960.8
North Texas 955.8
Tulane 955.3
New Mexico St. 951
San Jose St. 949
Miami (OH) 945.2
Rice 941.1
Washington St. 940.6
New Mexico 939.9
East. Michigan 936.2
West. Kentucky 928.4

[ElKabong]

TCU would have a hard time beating teams in major conferences week after week. Their O-line wouldn't stand up to the bigger, faster defenses week after week. One game? Yes. But not week after week.

I like your top pick, but last yr's UT team was better and was shut out of a chance for the title. This yr we need a playoff as much as last year. Lot of deserving teams.

My top 8/ playoff

BAMA
FLORIDA
TEXAS
CINCY
TCU
BOISE ST
PAC 10 CHAMP (?)
ACC CHAMP (?)

[rastajenk]

An 8-team playoff without the Big 11 Buckeyes? Preposterous. :eek:

[ElKabong]

seriously, if it weren't for that loss to Purdue, I'd have tOSU in there

[highnote]

Maybe what is needed is a hybrid BCS/Playoff solution.

All teams would figure out an 8 game schedule at the start of the season plus they would schedule an alternative 2 or 3 extra games.

The 16 top teams that are vying for the national championship would start a playoff series in their 9th game (and would drop out of their 2 or 3 alternative games). The two finalists would end up playing a championship game in their 12th game.

The teams that got knocked out in the earlier rounds could still play important and traditional bowl games.

The teams whose games were canceled because their opponent was a top 16 team could then play the opponents of the other teams who were canceled.

[DanG]

From a gambling standpoint; weighing for recency makes sense. Teams / horses and egg salad can go south for hundreds of reasons very quickly.

But…a frustrating part of the ranking process for me is the one loss team for example; it often comes down to when you lose. If USC went into the horse shoe yesterday (with a freshman QB and the majority of its defense playing on Sundays) and beat them it would have far more impact on the standings then losing that game prior to conference play.

It’s a similar logic to those who feel Rachel’s campaign shouldn’t be diminished by recent events. The rankings with all their inherit flaws should reflect the entire season imo even though we bet and watch who’s hot now.

BTW: this was just hot air concerning the rankings in general and not John’s computer reports he generously shares.

[Bochall]

Maybe we can do some intelligence rankings too....bet les Miles of LSU is slipping after that TOTALLY EMBARRASSING display of clock mismanagement. Wow, sure you folks saw that yesterday. His interview after the game was a classic as he tried to explain himself. I wont bore you with the details but trust me, it was an all timer. Rick Reilly or Lupica said that coaches need some pre teen Madden Playstation prodigy on the sidelines with them for just these situations. They ALWAYS know when to call a TO, when to spike the ball, etc....this one was bad ya'll. His nickname used to be 'Lesticles' for his ballsy moves, but this was not a good moment.

[BetHorses!]

very good ratings John

[highnote]

very good ratings John


Thanks, Bet.

I've thought about tweaking them, but all those little adjustments are like trying to use a weight adjustment in Beyer Speed Figures. I think it's better for me to just make a basic rating and then tweak each rating before a game with all the extra information that is hard to quantify.

It was Senior Day at Notre Dame yesterday and obviously a big game for them. Notre Dame lost. Was that a factor? Should a bettor factor that in? Did that fact help Notre Dame score more points? If so, should they have gotten a better pre-game rating?

My ratings can only reflect what happened after the fact -- kind of like the Dosage Index.

I'm not much of a sports bettor -- just my office pools -- so I do this for fun and because I find it interesting.

I even use this system to rate the various teams in the leagues that my son plays sports in. As a coach it helps me know if an undefeated team is really good or just lucky -- or if a team with a weak record is better than we think.

[highnote]

Here are my Week 12 NCAA Football ratings.

Texas had wins against two good teams -- OK and OK State and they've only had one close game this season. They deserve to be #1 on my ratings.

Florida also had wins against two good teams -- LSU and ARK.

BAMA had wins against three good teams -- V Tech, Miss and LSU. Their schedule looks the toughest.

TCU had wins against four good teams -- Clemson, Air Force, BYU and Utah and their wins have been decisive. In fact, they seem to be getting better as the season goes on. I'd say they're for real and deserve to be ranked second on my ratings.

We'll know a lot more on Dec 5 when FL and BAMA play. That should be a very good game.


Texas 1084
TCU 1078.3
Alabama 1076
Florida 1074
Boise St. 1068.6
Cincinnati 1066.3
Ohio St. 1062.1
Penn St. 1060
Pittsburgh 1058.6
Georgia Tech 1057.1
Oregon 1053.8
Nevada 1051.6
Clemson 1051
Nebraska 1050.6
Texas Tech 1049.4
Oklahoma St. 1048.8
Arkansas 1048.4
Mississippi 1048.1
Virginia Tech 1047.3
BYU 1045.1
Iowa 1041.2
Oklahoma 1041
Temple 1040.6
Stanford 1039.7
North Carolina 1039.6
Cent. Michigan 1038.3
Oregon St. 1038.2
Houston 1037.7
LSU 1036.1
Utah 1036.1
Miami (FL) 1034.8
Navy 1030.2
Kentucky 1028.6
California 1028.1
Wisconsin 1027.9
Rutgers 1027.6
Air Force 1027
Tennessee 1026.2
West Virginia 1026.2
Missouri 1026
Boston Coll. 1025.7
Southern Miss 1024.3
Northern Illinois 1022.3
East Carolina 1021.8
Fresno St. 1021.8
South Florida 1021.3
USC 1020.4
Auburn 1020.2
Middle Tenn. St. 1019.4
Northwestern 1019.2
Arizona 1019
Ohio 1019
Troy 1019
Notre Dame 1018.1
UCF 1018.1
Michigan St. 1014.2
Georgia 1013.8
Connecticut 1012.7
Florida St. 1012.6
Texas A&M 1010.9
William & Mary 1007.2
Richmond 1005.9
UCLA 1005.8
New Hampshire 1005.2
Villanova 1004.4
Kansas St. 1003.6
South Carolina 1002.9
Bowling Green 1002.6
Central Arkansas 1002.4
Kansas 1000.6
Marshall 1000.4
SMU 1000.3
Duke 999
Idaho 999
Minnesota 998.9
Mississippi St. 997.5
Iowa St. 997.1
Syracuse 996.9
LA Monroe 996.6
Northern Iowa 996.2
South Dakota St. 995.6
Southern Ill. 995.6
Massachusetts 995.3
Purdue 995.3
Samford 995.3
Prairie View A&M 995.2
Appalachian St. 995
James Madison 994.8
Chattanooga 994.2
Stephen F. Austin 994.1
Delaware 993.6
Virginia Military 993.5
Liberty 992.5
Arizona St. 991.8
Hofstra 991.6
McNeese St. 991.4
North Dakota St. 991.2
Weber St. 991.1
UAB 991
Michigan 990.9
S. Carolina St. 990.8
Buffalo 990.7
Maine 990.5
Indiana St. 990.3
Hawaii 989.5
Southern 989.4
North Dakota 988.8
Louisiana Tech 988.5
Kent St. 988.4
N.C. State 988.2
Elon 988.1
Portland St. 988.1
W. Michigan 988.1
Florida A&M 987.8
Wake Forest 987.8
Georgia Southern 987.5
Texas St. 986.9
Eastern Illinois 986.6
Towson 986.2
Illinois St. 986.1
Citadel 985.9
Illinois 985.8
Sacramento St. 985.6
Youngstown St. 985.6
Eastern Kentucky 985.5
Louisville 985.2
Northern Arizona 985.2
Tenn-Martin 985.2
Western Ill. 985
Rhode Island 984.9
SE Louisiana 984.9
Tulsa 984.9
Jackson St. 984.7
Missouri St. 984.7
N.C. Central 984.7
Jacksonville St. 984.1
Montana St. 983.8
Eastern Wash. 983.7
Army 983.6
Virginia 983.4
Delaware St. 982.9
Grambling St. 982.6
Cal Poly 982.5
Western Carolina 982.5
Howard 982.3
Northern Colorado 982.2
Morgan St. 981.7
LA Lafayette 981.1
San Diego St. 980.8
Southern Utah 980.8
Sam Houston St. 980.5
Coastal Carolina 980.2
Washington 979.8
Baylor 979.7
Northeastern 979.7
SE Missouri St. 979.4
Colorado 979
Furman 978.4
Wyoming 977.8
Miss. Valley St. 977.5
UNLV 977.3
Murray St. 977.2
Utah St. 977.2
UC Davis 976.8
Wofford 976.3
Toledo 973.6
Indiana 972.4
Gardner-Webb 971.9
Florida Atlantic 971.6
Arkansas St. 971.5
UTEP 971.3
Tennessee Tech 970.3
Charleston S. 966
Florida Intl. 965.9
Vanderbilt 965.8
Alcorn St. 965.5
Texas Southern 965.3
Northwestern St. 964.8
Idaho St. 962.2
Maryland 961.7
Akron 961.3
Nicholls St. 960.8
Colorado St. 959.2
Ball St. 957
Memphis 957
North Texas 952.3
New Mexico St. 947.5
Tulane 947.1
Rice 946.2
San Jose St. 945.5
New Mexico 945
Miami (OH) 938.4
Washington St. 937.7
East. Michigan 928.5
West. Kentucky 928.4

[Marshall Bennett]

Wash St. is that bad ? Hard to believe a pac 10 team would be ranked that far behind the likes of Alcorn St. and several others of simular stature .

[highnote]

Wash St. probably deserves a better ranking. Every team starts the season with 1000 points regardless of their division. Should 9-2 Temple start the season with the same ranking as 11-0 Florid? Probably not. But I haven't figured out a good way to make accurate pre-season ratings.

Some people use the last season's end of season ratings to start off the new season. That could work.

You really need 30 games to be played by one team before the ratings become accurate. But given the small sample size it is amazing to me that the ratings are picking the top 10 as well as they do.

[CBedo]

Thanks for posting this. I've been playing with a similar "google relevance" type rating that is somewhat similar, but I like your approach quite a bit. I understand your statement completely about needing 30 games to get an accurate number. How much sensitivity do the current rankings have based on the beginning number I wonder? I wonder if you randomly seeded teams within a certain range, if you'd get significantly different rankings now. If not, then don't worry about the beginning. I've been working on the generational weighting to figure out the answer to that as well (no answer yet).

One comment on the current rankings. It's crazy to me that OU was ranked as highly as they were last week, and are still ranked in the top 25. I guess it might suggest that after the very top, things drop off and maybe nobody is as good as we'd all like to believe they are or were, even in "the good old days."