Did Santos blow it ?

[karlskorner]

His ride down the backstretch was "painful" to Funny Cide, Master Bailey saw it. Funny side became rank Santos rode a defensive race, Bailey rode the offense, he knew he had him. Will Tagg put Santos back up for the Travers, good question.

[SandyE]

Before the race the conditioner was talking about how rank the horse ran in his races and that he felt the horse would have a better chance if he would relax like the chasers/jumpers do in their long races. I believe Barcley Tagg will keep Santo's in the irons for the Travers. Did they say Funny Cide's next start is already? I most have missed that some where.
SandyE

[Valuist]

I don't think he blew anything. The fractions weren't demanding even though the track was on the slow side. I would be shocked if Tagg replaced Santos, who rode the Cide perfectly in the Derby and Preakness.

The better horse won, and Maker may very well have won the Derby if he didn't miss two days of training. And lets not forget he took a lot wider route in the Derby than Funny Cide did.

[PaceAdvantage]

Was FC rank? I didn't see it. I've seen plenty of rank horses over the last 16 years, and FC did not strike me as one of them.

[Show Me the Wire]

Empire Maker would be the better horse in my opinion if he didn't need five weeks off to run his best race. OOPs he took those 5 weeks off because he had no chance to win the T.C. and would have been one tired horse if he ran in the Preakness resulting in TMW beating him in the Belmont. The better horse is the horse that ran in all three legs and still ran a competitive race in the Belmont.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality

[Valuist]

You say perception is reality. The 2 horses have met 3 times; Empire Maker has won twice, and Funny Cide once.

Wood Memorial: Empire Maker wins by a deceptive neck margin after being hand ridden in the stretch. Funny Cide is in a very hard drive and still comes up short.

Ky Derby: Empire Maker races wide on both turns, Funny Cide gets the garden spot trip and wins by 1.75 lengths. EM did miss two days of training that week.

Belmont: No question at all about this one.

As for the 5 week argument, Frankel always likes to run his horses fresh. That's just his motus operandi.

[Show Me the Wire]

I agree it is his modus operendi and that is why he won't win the T.C. a T.C. winner cannot have the luxury of taking off 5 weeks in between the Derby and Belmont.

I also said Empire Maker wasn't the best,because TMW would have beaten him if Empire Maker ran in the Preakness.

Actually, I think Day could have beaten Epire Maker anyway, I don't think he wanted too. Day certainly wasn't going all out on TMW in the Stretch.

Also you can make the same argument TMW lost beuase of the wider trip he had than E.M.

I have my reservations about E.M.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality

[JimG]

When the horse wanted to run like Funny Cide did....Santos had two options....what he did....and let him run. Had he let him run, he would have run something like...23.1...46.0...and 112. Wonder how much he would have left in the tank as they turned for home?

It's easy to blame Santos or Tagg when we did not get our Triple Crown winner. Could it just be that Empire Maker was the better horse Saturday?


Jim

[Valuist]

EM was loafing a little in the stretch when TMW made a run at him but Bailey shook the reins at him and got him refocused.

True about Frankel not winning a Triple Crown but I don't think he cares; he has his way of doing things

I probably sound like a grinch rooting against Funny Cide but to me, he didn't belong in the same class as Secretariat, Affirmed, Seattle Slew, just as Charismatic, Real Quiet, War Emblem and the others didn't either. It was a great story and he ran a good race in the Derby but really caught a weak field at Pimlico.

[Show Me the Wire]

Originally posted by JimG
Could it just be that Empire Maker was the better horse Saturday?
Jim

On Saturday, yes. In the Derby, no and definitely not in the Preakness. OOPS E.M. didn't run in the Preakness.

However, I will agree E.M. has the better breeding.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality

[Lefty]

Well, i'm not much at looking at the horse and seeing things but I did notice foam around Funny's mouth while they were in post parade. I took it as a bad sign.
Anyway, isn't the history of the Belmont that a rested horse beats the horses that raced all 3 legs of the Triple Crown?

[spotwinshow]

Equibase shows no results for the race, but other races same day show good paces.

[PaceAdvantage]

Usually, foaming around the bit is a good sign. It's a sign of acceptance of the bit.....



==PA

[Lefty]

Thanks, PA. I know "nutting" about this kinda stuff. Give me nos. and odds(more nos,)The numbers and the other numbers(odds)told me i didn't want to bet this race.

[andicap]

Trainers can't win with you guys these days.

Either they are D. Wayne Lukas and overracing their horses to infirmity or they are Bobby Frankel and giving them too much rest -- "Ooh, ooh, it's unfair. Frankel's horse had a rest and Tagg's didn't."

Christ, Frankel did what was best for his horse. My hats off to him.
Tho I agree that FC deserves credit for tackling the brutal schedule.

So one score for Frankel for treating his horse right and keeping him fresh for the fall events.
And one score for FC for holding up relatively well during a brutal schedule.
(Not blaming Tagg of course for running him too often -- he had no choice. Frankel would have done the same thing if EM won the Derby.)

Now if Tagg doesn't give FC some time off now, he should be whipsawed.
But I read today FC might go in the Haskell as a Travers prep (with EM in the Jim Dandy.)
Is that enough time for FC to recover from the brutal spring schedule?
There's a reason a lot of Derby champions are never the same.
On the other hand, what a great Travers match up if FC is fit.

[Show Me the Wire]

Originally posted by andicap
Trainers can't win with you guys these days.

So one score for Frankel for treating his horse right and keeping him fresh for the fall events.
And one score for FC for holding up relatively well during a brutal schedule.
(Not blaming Tagg of course for running him too often -- he had no choice. Frankel would have done the same thing if EM won the Derby.)


Andicap:

I am in favor of doing what is right for the horse. I am not criticizing Frankel for not running E.M. in races where he did not have a chance to win. I am responding to the idea E.M. is the best horse over all based on the win in the Belmont, a comparison you cannot make, because F.C. won the Derby, won the Preakness, and ran competitively in the Belmont. Maybe over time E.M. will run to his breeding and be the best over all horse, but I find it difficult to make that claim right now.

Racing is unfair, especially the T.C., that is why is so difficult for a horse to win.

Rgards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality

[Show Me the Wire]

Originally posted by Valuist
I probably sound like a grinch rooting against Funny Cide but to me, he didn't belong in the same class as Secretariat, Affirmed, Seattle Slew, just as Charismatic, Real Quiet, War Emblem and the others didn't either. It was a great story and he ran a good race in the Derby but really caught a weak field at Pimlico.

No, not to me, but I can say the same about E.M. E.M. had to beat one horse to win the Belmont and Bailey gave E.M. the perfect ride to beat that one horse. Santos set the dynamics of the Belmont race with his ride in the Preakness.

Santos unlike Bailey let his emotions cloud his judgment. Bailey learned his lesson in the Derby, Bailey really believed he had the best horse and rode him like E.M. was tons the best. Bailey found out otherwise, especially when E.M. barely passed his stable mate Peace Rules. I believe Peace Rukes ran a better Derby than E.M. and look what happened to him in the Preakness. Santos made the mistake believing F.C. was the best and could overcome any obstacle. Emotionally, believing F.C. was tons the best Santos made a tactical mistake in the Preakness

Turning to the original idea of this thread about whether Santos blew the Belmont, I think yes.

Santos blew the Belmont starting with his ride in the Preakness. He made a big mistake riding F.C. out to the wire. The prudent thing to do is to gear a horse down, not encourage more run, once you are not in danger of losing the race (see Bailey’s philosophy in Wood Memorial). Second problem was the too fast work. The problem with the fast work is it put too much speed in F.C. It should not have been too much of a surprise to see F.C. want to run early, as that is what the combination of Santo’s riding out the horse in the Preakness and the work. Santo’s did not teach the horse to rate and conserve energy with the finish, which led the horse to believe to give its all during its next work F.C. gave it his all next work and Smullen’s lost control further encouraging F.C. to quickly give its all in his next start and that is what happened.

In this type of situation, my opinion, is the rider is better off allowing the horse to have its head, than fight with the horse. Fighting with the horse confuses the horse and sometimes makes the horse fight harder to run fast, thus transferring energy from needed stamina to use it fight physically with the rider.

Additionally, Santos allowed E.M. to run well within himself, because E.M. was able to stay close and get the perfect stalking trip if F.C. quit. It would have been more interesting if F.C. was allowed to run early to see what Bailey would have opted to do. If Bailey wanted to stay close he would have needed to expend more early energy, which may have allowed TMW to pick-up the pieces. Alas, we will never know, all we know E.M won with the perfect rip and F.C. tired on the front.

There are consequences for actions. Santos ride in the Preakness affected the training of the horse to quickly show speed and the next race is not the ideal spot to ask the horse to do something different.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality

[Valuist]

The quality of the Belmont was much stronger than the Preakness

Belmont: Empire Maker, the Fla Derby and Wood winner (over Funny Cide); Funny Cide, the Ky Derby and Preakness winner, Ten Most Wanted, the Illinois Derby winner (with a huge number) and Dynever, the Lone Star Derby winner (probably would've had a much bigger # if wasnt in heavy traffic), Scrimshaw.

Preakness: Funny Cide, Peace Rules, the perfect rail trip winner of the Bluegrass over biased Kee track, Midway Road, the NW2X winner at Kee, and Scrimshaw.

If there was "one" horse EM had to beat it was Ten Most Wanted, a horse many were on at CD but who was compromised by the horrendous 16 post. Empire Maker was 4T 3T in the Derby while Funny Cide was RT 2T; a big difference and Empire Maker had the bigger number on Thorograph and the Sheets.

IMO, the biggest mistake any rider made in the Triple Crown races was Bailey, who chose (brain cramp) the 12 hole for the Derby instead of the 5. So he ends up losing considerable ground on the first turn and loses by less than 2 lengths....not to mention the fact he was "short" from 2 missed days of training.

If they meet again in the Travers, Empire Maker will solidify his position as 3YO leader.

[karlskorner]

According to the talking head lady during the replay of the Belmont, Santos had his "feet on the dash board" down the backstretch. The bit causes pain to get attention, the Jock causes to much pain and the horse becomes rank, Bailey saw it and knew that Santos lost control. Bad judgement on Santos part.

[Show Me the Wire]

Okay if I buy your position that Peace Rules is a nobody, then why didn't E.M. blow the doors off Peace Rules in the Derby? E.M. had everything to do to nostril out Peace Rules.

As I said E.M. has the better breeding, and I have to agree he has the better trainer. I give kudo's to E.M.'s connections for positioning the horse well for the win. I just do not buy into the belief he is the best over all, based on the Belmont. E.M. had everything in his favor for the Belmont, i.e. well rested, the distance, really weak field only three horse could run, and TMW lost a ton of ground.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality

[Valuist]

I think Ten Most Wanted is legit. Many people discounted his big fig in the Illinois Derby but his effort Saturday vindicates the big number given at Hawthorne. If the 3 do all meet again in the Travers, TMW probably will be a bit overlooked.

[cj]

Originally posted by Valuist
... Dynever, the Lone Star Derby winner (probably would've had a much bigger # if wasnt in heavy traffic)...


Statements like this make it hard to take the rest of your post seriously...I thinked he showed his true ability at this time on Saturday, a horse who runs Beyers in the 90s.

CJ

[karlskorner]

Blood Horse had an article that Funny Cide runs with a Haughton bit, a solid mouthpiece with leather over it and a thick wire welded to it, which is suppose to be a soft bit with better control than a snaffle.

Funny Cide was rank so much as a 2 year old that he had bleeding sores on his gums. He wore a prong bit because he bore out a lot. He did not rate because of it, supposedly has better directional control.

100,000 people came to see him at Belmont, you would of thought somebody could have told them.

[karlskorner]

The article is a week or so old, I would have said something but I have just been accused of redboarding "again" and didn't want to blow my cover.

[cj]

Wow, and yet somehow he was able to overcome this "bit" and win the Kentucky Derby and Preakness...how is this possibly relevant to the Belmont?

CJ

[Derek2U]

EM won with total ease and was in total control from the start.
He just looked the winner with each stride. Why didn't FC run
tougher? Hey I got no idea because anything I say is just
describing his race & not explaining it. I don't think he lacks
the class or speed .... It wasn't his afternoon. 10 Most? --- I
thought & posted (Maybe only WarRoom?) that 10 Most posed
the biggest threat to FC so yeah he's legit but yet, when you
see the replays, he really was NO Threat to EM at any part.
He looked like he would Never catch EM. I was pissed that EM
won and FC lost but hey lets hope for the Travers in Saratoga.

[linrom1]

Here is my take on Dynever, haven't seen a horse by Dynaformer yet that likes to run in slop. And then few run well on dirt, and that's usually 3yr fillies. I guess Clement wanted to be a team player and let Dynever run, after all it's the Belmont.

[Storm Cadet]

Show Me the Wire...

Just returned back from Chicago where I watched the 3 Yanks-Cubs games at Wrigley and witnessed the two biggest blunders within 2 hours in sports that day!

1. Torre pulling Roger on his 300th after he threw just 84 pitches with the last 2 pitches in the mid-90's. We all know what happened then...

2. Santos' ride in the Belmont! Your right, he should have either gunned it all the way and let Bailey make a decision or saved a bit and let the chips fall in the stretch. Bailey's comments post race were telling as he saw the problems Santos had with the rank FC.

Also are you and I the only ones who thought that Pat Day didn't work TMW as hard as he should/could have. We see Bailey working EM with both hands through the last 1/8th, then last 1/16th through the wire. Pat (who I've used on my horses 3 times) vigoriously hand rode TMW though the 1/8th, gaining on EM, then went to the whip, lost some ground, and then started to hand ride again at the 1/16th, gaining some ground back. Not that he was going to win, but I kept looking at the replay in Chicago and wondered what Pat was doing...

Also, I've noticed a couple of posts about the barn over betting their horses...well let me tell you about a little Saratoga story...

One of my horses ran a great workout 4 days before his Saratoga maiden race last August. They posted the time at 36 3/5 for 3 f. He actually ran and was clocked in 34 3/5 ...blazing. Well, we walk to the paddock pre race and the morning odds on the horse go from 6-1 to 6/5 in a blink. All the co-owners looked at each other with amazement as we still had not placed our bets. We then waited till the odds rose slowly to 4-1 before we placed ours. Walking to the owners box, I met a casual acquaintence there who gave me the "tip" on my horse, not knowing that I was an owner. I asked him how he got the info and he said the clockers at Saratoga spread the word around. Well the horse did win his maiden by like 8-9 lengths at 4-1. It's not always the barn who overbets the horses...some clockers made a good payday that afternoon!

Keep up the great posts!!!

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Storm Cadet
Show Me the Wire...One of my horses ran a great workout 4 days before his Saratoga maiden race last August. They posted the time at 36 3/5 for 3 f. He actually ran and was clocked in 34 3/5 ...blazing. Well, we walk to the paddock pre race and the morning odds on the horse go from 6-1 to 6/5 in a blink. All the co-owners looked at each other with amazement as we still had not placed our bets. We then waited till the odds rose slowly to 4-1 before we placed ours. Walking to the owners box, I met a casual acquaintence there who gave me the "tip" on my horse, not knowing that I was an owner. I asked him how he got the info and he said the clockers at Saratoga spread the word around. Well the horse did win his maiden by like 8-9 lengths at 4-1. It's not always the barn who overbets the horses...some clockers made a good payday that afternoon!Keep up the great posts!!!

This is why Clockers must go the way of the steam Locomotive. They need to get the GPS stuff in place

[spotwinshow]

I guess if the public demand is great enough things will improve. Demand is probably how public gets workout times at all instead of just insiders! Lucky they time works individually at all because they donm't do that in the races!!

[delayjf]

I'd have to agree with showmethewire, EM belmont win doesn't establish his superiority over FC.

EM Wood's victory over FC was only FC's second start of his three year old campaign. At that point EM was much more seasoned. I don't buy Baileys assertion that he could have one by more if he wanted, I've heard too many comments like this from Jockeys then watch them eat their words.

In the derby FC simply outran him down the lane. So what if EM missed two days of training, did he miss a workout?? I wish FC had missed his last work. Horses with bruised feet that are affecting him don't run good races, EM ran back to his Wood figure. Bad Derby trips?? Apparently that is debatable. FC has tactical speed which allows him to make his own luck. This is starting to sound like the Affirmed/Alydar Sunday Silience/Easy Goer debate.

In my mind the Derby was a fairer test than the Belmont. EM may very well be the best horse, but that is far from a fore gone conclusion. We shall see.

[Show Me the Wire]

Originally posted by Storm Cadet
Show Me the Wire...

Just returned back from Chicago where I watched the 3 Yanks-Cubs games at Wrigley and witnessed the two biggest blunders within 2 hours in sports that day!

Off subject:

Was it your first time at the "Friendly Confines"? Unique now in that you can almost see the center fielder's eyes from either the first base or third base line seats.

The Tribune Company (owner) actually markets the field maore than the team. The ads tell you to come out to beautiful Wrigley Field (see the ivy and quaint field), experience Wrigley Field (drink lots of beer) and incidently you may see a ballgame and or scandal.

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality

[SandyE]

Funny Cide looked head strong to me. He looked like he was sticking his chin out. The fractions were moderate to say the least and FC ought to have had something left in the tank for the run in which he appeared not to. err I meant home stretch
I was actually hoping to see another TC winner which would have made 4 for me lifetime total of TC winners. I wonder how many people who have seen more then 3 TC winners in their lifetime?
Anyboby?
SandyE