2 Picks for Weds, 11/18

[Ray2000]

TrackMaster Programs have a bug which is listing Race Class as "NA" in the *.pdfs (-99 in data files) and screwing up my computer picks. They are aware of the problem.

Only have 2 picks for today

Chester R9...........2,5,4 ........Ex Box3 in case #7 (TT) makes a break
Windsor R10.........1 w/4,2 .....Key Box Ex and Tri J T Stena-12/1


Good Luck All...

[melman]

Ray---Let's nail a few pic3's at Monticello today.

R345 16/231/63

R678 761/412/21

R91011 1/3516/42

R111213 423/2/5741


*Ray IMO the pic3 is a good way to "get around" the low win bet pools at most harness tracks. I think you just have to be willing to accept some low payouts in return for waiting for the big one.

** Ray--What were your ratings for Yankee Commander yesterday? That one was a nice key to pic3 betting yesterday.

*** As always best of trips to all your horses.

[Ray2000]

Mel

in R7 yesterday I had #3 ranked heavy on top of 4-7(Yankee)-8 and so I passed the race
Morning line guy had Yankee at 3/1 and he won at 17/1

Chart shows he paid $37.20 which is more than 17.00 to 1?

Today I'm thinking playing around with Rodeo Man-10/1 in the 6th race based on #1 and #7 fighting each other and it's hard for a 4 claimer to win 3 in a row.

Something like

R4...........13
R5...........135
R6...........15
R7...........124
R8...........126

R456 12 tkts
R567 18 tkts
R678 18 tkts


Good Luck with your pics

[TimesTheyRAChangin]

Chart shows he paid $37.20 which is more than 17.00 to 1?



Ray2K,actually the minimum/maximum return on a 17-1 shot is from $36.00 up to,and including,$37.90.
18-1 pays a minimum of $38.00.

TTRAC

[Ray2000]

TTRAC

You're right if talking about Tote board display, but with USTA chart odds (sending track odds) Win pay should be 2 x (odds+1) or

2*(17.00+1) = $36.00 for Yankee

Odds are listed to nearest 0.1 So Yankee's odds should be 17.60 in the chart if the ticket paid $37.20.

This discrepancy pops up at few other tracks (BAL and MAY) because of some state price reductions which I don't understand. Win price seems to depend on where you live. :)


Best of Luck..

[melman]

Ray--YEAH baby dat's what I'm talkin bout. :jump: You nailed all of the pic bets. Good stuff. :)

[Ray2000]

Thx Mel,


It may not have been the horse that I keyed on but a $52 winner in the 5th worked out nicely.


BTW the prices reported by Twin and Dayatthetrack are different from Youbet by 20 to 40 cents. More silly accounting :confused:

[TimesTheyRAChangin]

TTRAC

You're right if talking about Tote board display, but with USTA chart odds (sending track odds) Win pay should be 2 x (odds+1) or

2*(17.00+1) = $36.00 for Yankee



Just looked at the USTA chart for that day.
Nearly EVERY RACE RESULT shows the odds DIFFERENT than the payoff!
Look at the 3rd race.8-5 fave pays $3.40?
But in the 8th,the 8-5 fave pays $5.60!

It has to be just input error?
If this is like the SC site up here,in Canada,it is not the actual official payoff?CPMA is.
Maybe you have something to what we have,in the US?

TTRAC

[Ray2000]

One of my better days.....:)

Chester R9...........743 no ...........................Tetrick kept the 7 on the trot
Windsor R10.........146 Winner $33.70 Exacta $192.90

Win/Ex/Tri Bets in $36, back $227
Pic3 bets returned $128 on $48 bet

net +$295

[melman]

Ray--I don't think u gave yourself enough credit on the pic3 returns. I have it as $255.75 for the $48 bet on $1 tickets. You did hit all three pic3's u listed two of which paid over $100 on a $1 ticket.

[Ray2000]

Mel

:blush: It was 1:30 am and too much Amaretto :), divided my DayattheTrack return in half by mistake.





TTRAC

It looks like yesterday's Monti chart was just plain corrupt on some races.

Just like this clerical error at Saratoga Race 1 here

http://www.saratogaraceway.com/Files/Racing/Results/Sunday/ResultsSun.htm



Generally speaking USA tracks are "breaking" the odds to the dime (0.10). Canadian and New York State Harness break to the nickel (.05).

I could be wrong on this but after looking at charts for Monti and Stga it appears what's happening is Monti is reporting the Win payoffs according to their internal takeout/breakage system but reporting mutual odds according to the NYRA breakage format. They using a sliding scale, breaking to the $1 on big payoffs.

(see bottom of this web page..)
http://www.nyra.com/Aqueduct/Handicapping/NYRAWagering/NYRAWagering.shtml



Yesterday's Monti results Race 7 as an example...
Winner paid using winner's odds 3.35 (break to nickel) but report odds of 3.00 break to .50?

http://www.monticelloraceway.com/fileadmin/user_upload/Results/Wednesday/Results.htm

Wish they'd get their act together :)

[LottaKash]

net +$295

Ray, nice NET and not Nyet.....:jump:

best,