Belichek's call

[Valuist]

I happened to be at the game last night. The crowd was in absolute shock when Belichek made the call to go for it on 4th and 2 from his own 28 with 2 minutes remaining. On the ride home, I heard several guys on radio say he made the right call and criticized those who criticized the decision, saying the only reason they felt it was bad was because the result was bad. Completely wrong. It was the wrong call because it was reckless. Not aggressive but reckless. If the lead was 3 or less, there might have been some rationale. But with a 6 point lead, EVEN if its Peyton Manning on the other side, make him go the length of the field. Its not only reckless but arrogant and narcisstic to think you can convert a 4th and 2 deep in your own territory in a hostile environment. I've seen Belichek take many chances before on 4th down and sometimes it paid off. He had this one coming......he's been reckless in those situations before and last night was his comeuppance.

[bigmack]

That call had all the swagger of the sword yielding guy who thought he was golden & 'all that' until Indiana Jones simply shot 'em with a pistol.

It was nuts.

[banacek]

I couldn't believe the call. To me it showed a complete lack of faith that his defence could stop the colts from getting a TD.

[boomman]

That call had all the swagger of the sword yielding guy who thought he was golden & 'all that' until Indiana Jones simply shot 'em with a pistol.

It was nuts.

Great analogy and I also agree with Valuist that it was a reckless call that was wrong regardless of how it turned out, not to mention the fact that he burned 2 timeouts which cost him any chance of challenging the spot, (although I do think the official got it right). Any potential of giving Peyton Manning the ball on the 29 yard line down by 6 is just plain football suicide!:ThmbDown:

Boomer

[toetoe]

it showed a complete lack of faith that his defence could stop the colts



If that's how he feels, he should act accordingly. Even the callous Belichek won't come out and say he has no faith in his defenders.

I say the 29 is better than 40 yards back, as the Colts were steamrolling the Patriots late in the game, and even Indy would need almost all remaining time to go 70 yards. The biggest mistake was not pushing Addai(sp.?) into the end zone two plays before the final touchdown. Maybe Brady should even run back to the 1 and fall down on fourth down.

The fact that N.E. let it come down to fourth down would not shake the coach's confidence that they could march down for a field goal on a subsequent drive. The key is preventing Indy from using much time in scoring, which scoring was practically a given.

[pandy]

Worst call I've ever seen but I was glad because like many I despite Belichick and the Pats. Manning wasn't even that sharp in the game and had thrown 2 picks, but regardless there's no way you can not kick in that situation.

[cj]

It was the wrong call by the coach and the officials. He clearly had possession beyond the 30, even after the bobble. Still, in the end, he should have punted and at the least had a timeout left.

[CBedo]

I thought it was a terrible call at the time, but I was thinking about it when I was going to bed, and this morning started putting it on paper. I actually think that it was definitely against the tradition, but might have been the right call.

Think of it from a decision tree standpoint. This is somewhat simplified from what I built in software, but you'll get the gist. Your choices are either "Go for it" or "punt." If you go for it, how often do you get it? They were eating up third and shorts and I read this morning that they are about 75% on fourth and short. I'll call it 70% get it, and 30% don't get it. If they convert it, they will win the game a large percentage of the time since they will be able to almost run the clock out. I think it's probably even higher, but I'll say they win 90% of the time if they convert. If they don't convert, then how often do the Colts score? We'll say they score 90% of the time from 30 yards out. It might not be that high, but we are trying to be conservative from the Pats standpoint. Using those probabilities, the pats chance of winning if they go for it are .7 * .9 + .3 * .1 = 0.66. So they win 66% of the time conservatively, maybe a bit more even.

Now what happens if they punt. If we gave the Colts a 90% chance of scoring from the 30, what is the probability that they score from 60-70 yards out? We'll make one other quick assumption. We'll assume that if the Colts do score, the Pats can come back a get a field goal to win, but with a lack of time, it's probably really a small probability, but we'll say 5% just for fun. So the probability of winning if you punt is the probability that you stop the colts (we're saying if you stop them, they win every time), plus the probability that the colts score but the pats come back and get a fg (the 5% number).

If you plug in the 66% that we got from the "go for it" node to see how often we have to stop the colts if we punt for the decisions to be equal, you get .66 = 1-p(colts score) + p(colts score) * .05. Solving that you get the probability of the colts scoring is just under 36% for the decisons to be equal. If you said the colts could score 90% of the time from the 30, does that make any sense for it to be 36% from farther out? Not really, it has to be higher, and if it's higher, then the decision to punt gets worse, not better.

Therefore, using these assumptions, the decision to go for it is the right decision mathematically. You can play with the assumptions if you think they are too skewed in the Pats favor, but when I do that, it's really hard to get them low enough to make punting the right decision.

Just something to think about.

[Greyfox]

It raises the question as to whether or not he had a bet on?

[Valuist]

Here's Belichek's decision making in the final 2 1/2 minutes last night:

3rd and 2 yards to go: The right call would be to run the ball, taking the clock down to the 2 minute warning or force the Colts to burn a timeout. The Patriots elected to pass, and Brady threw a dangerous incompletion toward the sideline that was nearly intercepted. This of course, stopped the clock.

4th and 2: Decision aside, lets look at the play. You line up in shotgun formation and motion the RB Faulk. You've completely telegraphed to everyone there is no chance of a run. A medium or deep pass is completely out of the question now. So in a very loud, hostile environment, you're going to throw a short pass against an undersized, but very fast defense. You also will have 2 monster DEs in Freeney and Mathis making life miserable for Brady. Oh yeah, you throw you're defense under the bus and leave tire tracks over all of them.

Colts move ball down to around 10. On the Addai run, they shouldn't have even bothered tackling him at the 1. Let him score. You would only need a FG. Give Brady another chance with some time.

As for Caldwell, his call to kick deep after the TD that brought them to within 6 at 34-28 was tremendous. I was thinking onsides kick, but that's about a 15% chance of working out. Against a team that doesn't want to run, this was the right call.

For one of the best ever coaches, Belichek took the golden sombrero yesterday.

[Valuist]

At the postgame press conference, Belichek said on two occasions, "we felt we could get that YARD we needed". He said yard, as in the singular form. They needed two yards, not one. On the road against a NFL defense, getting 2 yards on 4th down in much more diffucult than needing only 1.

Chalk up another mistake for Belichek.

[ghostyapper]

I think people are over blowing just how bad a call it was.

Do you have more faith in getting 4th and 2 with your offense or your defense stopping peyton manning from scoring a td with 90 seconds left and 2 timeouts. Yes punting is the right move but it's not as cut and dry as some people are making it out to be.

The real mistake was not letting addai score the td when he broke the long run. If you don't have faith in your defense stopping the colts from 70 yards how can you have faith stopping them for 1 yard.

And yes I felt he had the first down. If the refs call it right everyone's calling him a genius today.

[rrbauer]

Billy B. neglected to consider a simple question: What are the chances that Manning can get the Colts into the end zone from 30 yds out with 2 minutes to play having three timeouts and a full set of downs?

Instead, Billy B. considered this question: What are the chances that we can make this yard, or so, and get a first down?

One of the announcers said something to the effect that this play is for the game. Maybe, but the interesting thing is that even if they did make the first down, they may have had to punt it if they don't make another first down because the 2 min warning stopped the clock after the play and the Colts had all of their timeouts remaining to be used on subsequent, presumably, Patriot running plays.

[bigmack]

Do you have more faith in getting 4th and 2 with your offense or your defense stopping peyton manning from scoring a td with 90 seconds left and 2 timeouts. Yes punting is the right move but it's not as cut and dry as some people are making it out to be.
4th and anything ain't go gimme. Let them prove themselves covering 70 yards with less than 2 minutes verses the risk of them having to cover less than 30.

[banacek]

And yes I felt he had the first down. If the refs call it right everyone's calling him a genius today.

True, but if they hadn't wasted those two timeouts right before, they could have challenged the play.

[toetoe]

I was glad to hear that the Jax Jags did two or three kneeldowns at the end of their game, rightly recognizing that time is more valuable than even a certain touchdown.

This interest in game theory, if that term is correct, is something I hope to see more often. For instance, if N.E. allowed Addai to waltz into the end zone, as many of us advise, Addai should himself get into the act, falling at the 1.

[CBedo]

Billy B. neglected to consider a simple question: What are the chances that Manning can get the Colts into the end zone from 30 yds out with 2 minutes to play having three timeouts and a full set of downs?

Instead, Billy B. considered this question: What are the chances that we can make this yard, or so, and get a first down?My point is that he did consider both, and that the spread between how often the Colts score from 30 out and from 65 out was not big enough in his mind to make punting the right decision if he believed there was a good chance of making the fourth down.

[cj]

I saw a study before that attempted to prove punting was a bad decision outside of being inside your own 20, or having to gain a lot of yards on 4th down, though I can't remember the number. It was pretty tough to argue with the numbers, but it doesn't account for the psychological effect on both teams when there is a stop.

[cj]

My point is that he did consider both, and that the spread between how often the Colts score from 30 out and from 65 out was not big enough in his mind to make punting the right decision if he believed there was a good chance of making the fourth down.

You are leaving out one important factor...the refs might blow the call. :)

[dylbert]

I won't second guess Mr. Belichek. He makes difficult decisions and wins Super Bowls. I sit in a chair typing on horse racing forum. Who has harder job?

On the other hand, if he had punted and Colts drove for winning TD, would second-guessers be buzzing, "Pats should gone for it. They moved to ball at will the entire game." Picking one's poison is tedious work.

Does replay just give ref a second chance at blowing call? :bang:

[rrbauer]

My point is that he did consider both, and that the spread between how often the Colts score from 30 out and from 65 out was not big enough in his mind to make punting the right decision if he believed there was a good chance of making the fourth down.

You might be right about what he considered, but based on the Belichek quotes I saw, his entire mindset was on making a first down on 4th and 1.

[bisket]

why? because now the colts are coming to baltimore (it still breaks my heart to say that) off an emotional victory. whats the odds of the bounce theory here ;) . our guys can use all the help they can get.

[CBedo]

I saw a study before that attempted to prove punting was a bad decision outside of being inside your own 20, or having to gain a lot of yards on 4th down, though I can't remember the number. It was pretty tough to argue with the numbers, but it doesn't account for the psychological effect on both teams when there is a stop.I agree. The math and the psychology sometimes don't match. I've also seen studies showing mathematically how teams should go for two much more than they do, but no one pays any attention to them for the most part.

[Valuist]

I agree. The math and the psychology sometimes don't match. I've also seen studies showing mathematically how teams should go for two much more than they do, but no one pays any attention to them for the most part.

Teams should NEVER go for two before the 4th quarter. The success rates are shockingly low, and once they miss that first one, they compound the problem by chasing the "lost" points.

I guess some feel differently, but I think the officials got the call right. Initially I didn't, but Faulk did not have clear possession at his furthest point of progress.

[cj]

Teams should NEVER go for two before the 4th quarter. The success rates are shockingly low, and once they miss that first one, they compound the problem by chasing the "lost" points.

I guess some feel differently, but I think the officials got the call right. Initially I didn't, but Faulk did not have clear possession at his furthest point of progress.

It sure looked to me like he had possession before being pushed forward, even after the bobble.

[CBedo]

It sure looked to me like he had possession before being pushed forward, even after the bobble.The timeout that Brady had to take coming out of the break was the killer. No timeout equals no challenge possibility.

[proximity]

i'm a colts fan and yeah we "won" (again) and mr belichick ended up being the goat, but overall we looked ridiculous out there. at least belichick had a plan to slow down our offense. what was our plan?? moss is a great player and is going to make plays..... but can we at least tie up wes welker a little bit at the line?

[banacek]

Interesting comments by Tedy Bruschi:

excerpt:

"As a former defender on that team, I would've cared less about the result of that fourth-down attempt. The decision to go for it would be enough to make my blood boil for weeks. Bill Belichick sent a message to his defense. He felt that his chances were better to go for it on his own 28-yard line than to punt it away and make Peyton Manning (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?playerId=1428) have to drive the majority of the field to win the game."

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/news/story?id=4659264

[cj]

Interesting comments by Tedy Bruschi:

excerpt:

"As a former defender on that team, I would've cared less about the result of that fourth-down attempt. The decision to go for it would be enough to make my blood boil for weeks. Bill Belichick sent a message to his defense. He felt that his chances were better to go for it on his own 28-yard line than to punt it away and make Peyton Manning (http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/profile?playerId=1428) have to drive the majority of the field to win the game."

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/news/story?id=4659264

I wonder how Bruschi would have felt if his team had given up two touchdowns looking like a high school team the previous two drives. The only reason the 28 yard drive took as long as it did was because the Colts were running out the clock.

The more I think about it, it isn't a bad a call as I originally thought. It took guts for sure.

[headhawg]

It raises the question as to whether or not he had a bet on?Huh? The line was Pats +2.5.

[Greyfox]

Huh? The line was Pats +2.5.

My question was strictly rhetorical said "tongue in cheek."

[Steve 'StatMan']

Strange, I'm not thinking in showed a lack of faith in his defense. I'm thinking, given the way the Colts and Peyton Manning have excelled in comebacks, and if they would have been in a prevent-type defense, that he might have felt the chances of the Colts getting a touchdown off his defense were not much different from the long distance, or closer up, esp with all their time outs left, etc. If field goal would tie or beat them then punt it away and make them drive back into field goal range. But with a shorter field to defend, maybe they thought their chances weren't that much different. Gutsy call - don't know that I would have called that one, not positive which would have been the absolute best, but I guess going for the first down, at least that play was in their hands, instead of the punt. We'll remember this one forever. Just like the kneel down play years ago where the mishike to the quarterback lost the game, and now offensive backs surround the quarterback on kneel down plays.

[cj's dad]

Reader's Digest version; if I play D for the Pats, I'm pissed.

[cj]

Reader's Digest version; if I play D for the Pats, I'm pissed.

Pissed because he went for it, or pissed because the elder Manning went through you like swiss cheese in the last 7 minutes? Or both?

[ghostyapper]

The timeout that Brady had to take coming out of the break was the killer. No timeout equals no challenge possibility.

I doubt the refs would have overturned that call even if it was reviewed. He should have been awarded a first down but once they say no on the field they will use the "not enough evidence" cop out under the hood.

[cj's dad]

Both !!

BTW- Ravens by a whisker !!

[Valuist]

Pissed because he went for it, or pissed because the elder Manning went through you like swiss cheese in the last 7 minutes? Or both?

Elder Manning? A comeback for Archie?

[TiznowfaninNY]

That was a terribly managed end game by the Pats, totally out of character. The timeouts, everything.


If Belichick had in mind that this was going to be 4 down territory, why not just run it starting on 3rd and 2. A draw play, a QB sneak, anything.

They grind out 2 lousy yards and have 2 downs to do so...

and it's game over.

[Valuist]

That was a terribly managed end game by the Pats, totally out of character. The timeouts, everything.


If Belichick had in mind that this was going to be 4 down territory, why not just run it starting on 3rd and 2. A draw play, a QB sneak, anything.

They grind out 2 lousy yards and have 2 downs to do so...

and it's game over.

And if they run, they keep the clock running or force Indy to use timeouts.

[TiznowfaninNY]

And if they run, they keep the clock running or force Indy to use timeouts.

Yep, that too.

[rrbauer]

Teams should NEVER go for two before the 4th quarter. The success rates are shockingly low, and once they miss that first one, they compound the problem by chasing the "lost" points.

I guess some feel differently, but I think the officials got the call right. Initially I didn't, but Faulk did not have clear possession at his furthest point of progress.

Stats regarding "going for two" are skewed by the fact that teams rarely do that unless they need the 2 points from a strategic perspective. Hence, when team A is spanking team B by several scores they don't go for two--not because they couldn't make it but because they are winning without it. Some team with a coach like Urban Meyer will come along and always go for two and make it most of the time. That will end the idea that going for two is not productive.

[Valuist]

Stats regarding "going for two" are skewed by the fact that teams rarely do that unless they need the 2 points from a strategic perspective. Hence, when team A is spanking team B by several scores they don't go for two--not because they couldn't make it but because they are winning without it. Some team with a coach like Urban Meyer will come along and always go for two and make it most of the time. That will end the idea that going for two is not productive.

I was referring to the NFL. Since Urban Meyer is the Florida coach, we are talking about apples and oranges. It is definitely easier to convert a 2 point conversion in college football.

[strapper]

I can't comment. I stupidly went to bed w/ 5 min. to go thinking my Colts had no shot. Thank you Coach Belichek, however.

[cj's dad]

I can't comment. I stupidly went to bed w/ 5 min. to go thinking my Colts had no shot. Thank you Coach Belichek, however.

:lol:

[Backstretch Pirate]

I liked the call, they went for it, got the 2 yards easily.
Can't do anything about brutal officiating.

[Valuist]

Here we are, two years later, and Mike Smith's call was somewhat similar but worse in one respect: the Falcons weren't ahead. At least the Patriots when leading when Belichek made his questionable 4th down call.

Also, New England was on the road in their game; a little more understandable. Heard an interesting point by Chris Carter: offensive lines often get blown up in these 4th and short because the crowd noise limits their ability to hear the QB.

And Backstretch Pirate, the Patriots weren't even close to the first down on that pass to Kevin Faulk.