Mountaineer 11/16

[redeye007]

Race 5 ex-tri-super

:8: with :1: :10: :7: :5: :3:

race 9 ex-tri-super

:4: with :6: :2: :1: :5: :8:

[judd]

wandering from calif tracks ?

[redeye007]

wandering from calif tracks ?

Just for a day or two. Need the action.



Curiosity killed the cat and Greed killed the gambler. :D

[redeye007]

pick 3 race 6-7-8

race 6 :1: :2:

race7 :3: :4:

race 8 :5: :2: :4:

[CBedo]

Redeye,

How did Hollywood treat you opening weekend?

[redeye007]

Redeye,

How did Hollywood treat you opening weekend?

I only played on friday night and didn't do too well but I was betting small and just observing. I've made some tweaks to my method and saw some nicely improved results although the best I could have done on the pick 4 was 3 of 4 missing the 6th. I've been using bris pace figures since 1990 and always did remarkably well with them but I have noticed a steady decline in their effectiveness since the proliferation of software programs driven by the $1 file and what appears to be excessive dutching driving down the odds on all the contenders which may be irking the trainers forcing them to try even harder to fool the public. Of course this is merely my opinion on the subject as the permutations are endless. I'm hoping for something good to happen though.

[redeye007]

Race 5 ex-tri-super

:8: with :1: :10: :7: :5: :3:

race 9 ex-tri-super

:4: with :6: :2: :1: :5: :8:

the 8 in the 5th is a 6yo going against 3yo and up. I don't think I like my chances :confused:

[redeye007]

pick 3 race 6-7-8

race 6 :1: :2:

race7 :3: :4:

race 8 :5: :2: :4:

result 1-2-5 pays $92.80 @$1 :mad:

[redeye007]

race 9 $1 tri 6 with 1 -2-4 . this 6 is very popular in the claim box

[redeye007]

Race 5 ex-tri-super

:8: with :1: :10: :7: :5: :3:

race 9 ex-tri-super

:4: with :6: :2: :1: :5: :8:


result 5th 7-1-6-10

result 9th 7-10-8-4

not even close :mad:

[CBedo]

I only played on friday night and didn't do too well but I was betting small and just observing. I've made some tweaks to my method and saw some nicely improved results although the best I could have done on the pick 4 was 3 of 4 missing the 6th. I've been using bris pace figures since 1990 and always did remarkably well with them but I have noticed a steady decline in their effectiveness since the proliferation of software programs driven by the $1 file and what appears to be excessive dutching driving down the odds on all the contenders which may be irking the trainers forcing them to try even harder to fool the public. Of course this is merely my opinion on the subject as the permutations are endless. I'm hoping for something good to happen though.I would have had a pretty bad Friday night as well if not for being violently ill and not making a single bet. I didn't play Saturday for the same reason, but Sunday was an interesting day. There were three races that I loved:

The first race I just thought the favorite, the 1 was actually a monster overlay at 7/5, and bet him as such. He got a little more pressure than I thought he would, but really didn't have an excuse to run as poorly as he did.

The second race was a maiden turf race with a couple of 2nd time starters that I liked. The 1 looked the better of the two, but at 2/1, I thought was way overbet. Although there were some questions, I thought the 8 had some speed that always helps in maiden races and had a competitive figure if he could duplicate it in very different circumstances, and he might improve. At 9.3/1 it was a no brainer win bet and i also had him in the exacta with the 6 (who had the highest last race figure by the numbers I was using) and the 1. 20.60 to win and 77.00 for the exacta made for a good day.

The fourth race was the most frustrating, but encouraging, of the day. I LOVED the 7, and thought he had the speed to be close up in a race where noone really wanted to run early. I also thought he had the stamina to take it home coming around the turn. At 12.2 to 1 odds, I loaded up on him in almost every pool. Unfortunately someone forgot to tell the jockey or the horse that he had the early foot to be up close and immediately fell 5 back before moving on the turn like I thought he would but getting run down by the 3. Of course the most frustrating part was that I had tossed the 3 as my last elimination in the win hole to use the 2 who I thought was the only other possible early speed threat. I had the other horses that finished in the money on my tickets on the bottom of the tris and supers, so seeing the 3 flying up just deflated me. Having a 12/1, 8/1 & 7/1 horse right in the super but not having a horse I was worried about beat me knocked me for a loop. I'm glad I had to leave after that and wasn't able to bet any more. I might have been on tilt!

So overall, not a terrible day, but as so many days are--so close to being great!

[CBedo]

With regards to using your pace numbers effectively, I would suggest that they likely will help out at Hollywood relative to how they performed at Santa Anita. Overall, I think the cushion track at Hollywood is much more appreciative of early pace than the Pro Ride at SA. An angle that was good for me earlier this year was early in the meet, looking for horses who were up close at SA but got passed late. If they are spotted well at Hol, they should finish better.

[redeye007]

I believe I've improved things slightly. at mnr tonight I was close in the 5th but missed the show horse in my top 4. the 9th was a total miss. the 8th was nice. a $13.80 winner and $25 exacta cold and had the $4 winner of the 6th. had to go 3 deep in the 7th but only used top 2 and they finished 2nd and 3rd. I really don't care for tracks like mnr because they have so much foul weather and every other paceline of the horse is on an off track making it more difficult to get an idea how the horse may run today. that's why I prefer socal since it's mostly dry there. If they do get any rain there that may be a good time to nail a longshot or two. I noticed that when races are taken off the turf due to rain speed horses that are quitters seem to hold on for good prices. I'll be on the lookout for that angle. :)