Trifecta wager

[andicap]

Is this a viable and intelligent way to bet the trifecta balancing a shot of hitting a big one with a good chance of hitting a reasonable number of times, say 20%.

1. Take a legit longshot in the 8-1 or 10-1 range (depending on size of field).
2. Take a legitimate favorite -- or if the chalk is dubious, a solid 2nd favorite.

3. Call the Longshot "1" and the chalk "2."

Will this bet work or am I better off betting exacta with fewer losing tickets?

A. 1/2/3,4,5,6,7 $5
B. 2/1/3,4,5,6,7 $5
C. 1/3,4,5,6/2 $4
D. 2/3,4,5,6/1 $4.
E. 3,4/1/2 $2
F. 3,4/2/1 $2

Total bet: $20.
Potential savings: use only 3 horses in 2nd hole on C,D. making bet $18 at cost of hit rate.

[GR1@HTR]

Thanks for the formula!

[andicap]

Thanks, GR1, but actually I want to know if it makes sense to people. Or are there too many losing tickets?

Some studies have shown bettors should stay away from tris with too many losing tix and stick with exactas.

[Larry Hamilton]

Have been rolling Andy Capp's tri rules set around in my head and have some conclutions.

1. Line One--If your win rate is normal, then your ability to hit the top line in your rules set (using picks 1,2 or 3) is approximately 65%. Inversely this means that 35 out of 100 races you play lose off the top line alone.

2. Line two--If your "comes in second" rate is normal then your ability to hit the second line in your rules set (using picks 1,2,3, or 4) is approximately 50%. Inversely, this means that 33 out of your 65(remaining winners from picking the 1st line) races are lost on the second line.

3. Line three--If your "comes in third" rate is normal, then your ability to hit the third line in your rule set (using 1,2,3,4,5,6, or 7) is probably approximately 90%. Inversely, this means 4 out your 32 races are lost on the third line.

By the way, there is an error in here I have forgotten how to handle--each selection in a line that is in another line must be reduced from the additional ines it is in) What does that mean? In actuality, the number I proppose in the next paragraph (3:1) is lower!

Therefore, your overall chances of winning are approximately 1 in 4.

WHich means all bets made which anticipate a return of less than $80 are losers with a $20 investment.

Based on this, I think you should find races where 1 or 2 are weak or flawed. Any race that has 1 or 2 in the top row, will lose money in the long run.... Of course, if you have personal records that indicate the above analysis does not apply to you, then recalculate it. The technique is sound, just finagle with the input.

Caution: Finishing exactly second is not the same thing as place, nor is finishing exactly third is no the same thing as show. That is why the numbers i provided for second and third may seem lower than you thought they should. With records, you can insert a proper and personal number.

[ceejay]

Andy:

I'm thinking that there are too many losing tickets. Depending on the "degree of chalk" I'd guress that the 1-2 exacta would pay in the $60-80 range and the 2-1 maybe $35-55. So expeed values of a $10 EX BX on 1-2 is about $275 (rounding off and using midpoints) vs having the Tri for half of the $2 payoff. Granted, you have more combinations in play using your lines c, d, e, & f.

If I were considering this strategy I would do some tracking of the bet comparisions. Maybe one of the DB guy's out there has exotics in the DB and can.???

[Tim]

andicap,

If you are betting NYRA then I would throw away the trifecta's (takeout 25%) and focus on exactas (takeout 17.5%). They are easier to handicap, the cash flow is better and the lower takeout means a lot.

Here is an example from last Thursday:

Saratoga 8/2/01 5th race
8 starters

Odds of the WPS horses
W: 4.90 4th choice
P: 2.25 fav
S: 17.80 5th choice

Exacta Pool: $462,150
Exacta takeout:$80,875 at 17.5%
Price 43.60
Winning $2 tickets sold: approx 8,744

Trifecta Pool: $345,150
Trifecta Takeout: 86,287 at $25%
Price 424.00
Winning $2 tickets sold: approx 610

Formula: winning tickets sold = Mutual pool multiplied by (100 pct - takeout pct) divided by payout price
I believe that gives you the approx number of $2 tickets.

Now here is the punch line!

Lets say that you only bought a $2 exacta box and a $2 trifecta box. You would recieve $43.60 for the exacta and $424 for the trifecta.

An issue is that in the real world you have to push a lot more money than $2 bets through the windows to make a living.

If you were to increase your exacta box to a $20 box the payoff would be reduced to $43.50 The would be a drop of 10 cents. the additional $108 bet would cost you about $1 or around 1% of your bet.

If you were to increase your trifecta box to a $20 box the payoff would be reduced to $418.00 The would be a drop of $6. the additional $108 bet would cost you about $60 or around 55% of your bet.

This example also shows how a whale who doesn't understand parimutual betting can hurt you. An ill conceived bet on the exacta wouldn't hurt as much as it would on the trifecta. Another thing is that this example is at Saratoga, at a track with smaller pools the effect of going from $2 boxes to $20 boxes would be magnified.

For you number guys, don't shoot me if there is an error in my math. While I think it's right I did this with my morning coffee on the back of an envelope without considering rounding or breakage.

Tim

[Barchyman]

I recently was relistening to an old Barry Meadow seminar where he said that because of the number of people who box in the trifecta, that it is a waste of time to throw the favorite into the third position, since it tends to be a major underlay.

You are better off betting your other contenders in the exacta (including the favorite if worthwhile) than constructing tickets that include the fave in the 3rd tri position.

Tom

[Tom]

andy,
I tried something like that a few years ago, but I used my two-horse Sartin selections as 1-2 and the 3-4-5-6
worst horses in the field. All non-contenders. MY thought was to hit enough boxcars to stay ahead. Problme was that I tapped out several times early on. By the time the big ones hit, I was thumbing a ride home.
I'll give your model a try out with HTR numbers, using 1-2 and then 3-4-5- from the best factor in my model for the race in question.
Sounds interesting.
Tom

I would say that the determing factor would be how sure you are about your bet.If you don't have a feel for the race,dont bet! If you do feel good about your longshot completing the exacta,why not bet your two horses first and second and take the rest of the field behind them.
Using your example and Tim's payoffs, taking your first two picks in the order you think they will run,and the field ,it costs you $5 for a dollar ticket.
If you pick them right you win $212,for the tri.
If you play the exacta straight for $5 ,you win $109.

[mhrussell]

Andicap-

Be careful in imposing a set of betting rules on any race. I have discovered that the best way is to let the bets come out of your handicapping work on the race. If there are a couple of expected long price horses the public will not like that rate highly in your evaluation, then go deep into the race. If not, either pass or just play the longies in the exacta.
My experience with betting rules is that they tend to make me force bets rather than "let the bet make you" as M.P. would say.


Matt...

[ceejay]

Originally posted by Barchyman
I recently was relistening to an old Barry Meadow seminar where he said that because of the number of people who box in the trifecta, that it is a waste of time to throw the favorite into the third position, since it tends to be a major underlay.

You are better off betting your other contenders in the exacta (including the favorite if worthwhile) than constructing tickets that include the fave in the 3rd tri position.

Tom

I think that a reason to leave the fav out of the 3 hole of the tri is that the fav only comes in third place half as often as he/she wins. Of course, that would create an underlay!

[Lefty]

andycap, looks pretty good but the bets add up to $22
not $20.

[andicap]

D'oh!

[John]

doing this, the size of the field is very important

[Tom]

andy,
Using five horses, ranked in order of K (HTR) at Finger Lakes for the weekend, here is a small test.

Number races 16
Number wins 6 38%
Amt Bet $256.00 ($16 per race)
Amt Won $310.40
Profit $ 54.40 ROI 1.21

Ok, it is a small sample, but I will definately check this out closer. I don't even know if K was the best facto to use. Only tqo race were not playable, so there was a lot of action. I would happy with a 38% win bet rate, but tris? Yikes!
Tom

[Tom]

Here are the results for the next two days:

Plays - 13
Wins - 1
Bet - $208
Ret - $36.60

Overall after 4 days:

Bets 29
Wins 7 24%
Bet $464
Ret $347
Loss $117

Coming back to Earth.........D'oh!
Paper plays the first two days.
Real money the next two.
Anyone got a bullet????
Tom