Belmont Post Mortem

[Kentucky Bred]

There are as many reasons as you can imagine as to why Funny Cide failed to win the Triple Crown today. Here is a few to start off.

1.) Workouts--That big fat 57.4 work just FOUR DAYS prior to a one mile and one half race. What were they hoping for in the work? I figure they wanted a sub one-minute work-out. They were EIGHT LENGTHS away from that in the work-out. Nice attention to detail in the most important workout of your life. I have heard of workout jocks fired for far less. You have got to know you are going too fast.

I think this was big and my evidence is how Funny Cide behaved in the paddock and post parade and warmup and at the gate. He was very relaxed...too relaxed. At the time the announcers were noting how well behaved he was as a good thing. I said to a crowd at a party watching the race that watching a normally excitable horse act calm is not always a good thing.

2.) The 'Bounce Theory'-- In the Preakness, Funny Cide posting a monster number equaling Empire's big number. A poor follow up race was inevitable.

3.) Race Pace Strategy--If the horse wants to be just off the pace and you have at least two horses that can assume the lead, why not let Funny Cide relax and then send him around the turn? Personally, I liked the front speed strategy and thought it would happen. The pace was nothing too frightening. Some horses like to look at another horse for awhile.

4.) Pedigree or surface problems--I disagree on both. I thing FC is bred to a least handle the distance and likes the track and I think the off track helped him run third.

5.) He just wasn't good enough. He is not Triple Crown material.

6.) He is a horse, not a robot.

7.) The Triple Crown curse.

8.) Fill in your own.

For a very long time, my wife has asked me after each Preakness or Belmont in which it is determined that there isn't going to be a Triple Crown winner that year the following:

"Are we ever going to have a Triple Crown winner again?"

I have always said, "Oh sure, it will happen one year again."

This year I said, "I don't know".

Kentucky Bred

[Tom]

I don't think it will happen any time soon. But maybe if enough foreign-based trainers/owners start to eye the crown, we will see some better bred, souder, dru-free horse shipping over early enough to win one. I just think the breed over here is inferior to 20 years ago and getting more and more so. When lasix first was legalized in NY, one argument was that it would cheapen the whole breed by allowing inferior horse to compete and win and breed. I think we see that now.
It will only get worse.
If the whole crown series were moved back, to say start in June and end in late July, we might see more developed, stronger horses running in it, and give foreign horses more time to prepare and ship over.
My gut feeling is that none of this crop of 3 yos will be very successful against older horse later in the year. But I could be wrong. I still think it is a bad crop. EM and FC just look really good compared to a really bad bunch.
But I could be wrong. I hope so.
Having said that, I really did enjoy a big, beautiful, juicy steak dinner tonight thanks to EM. He ran as I thought he would and so did FC. When you look at the whole picture, EM was a dominate factor, beat FC, then had a brusied foot, only had 1 workout in three weeks leading to the Derby, for whatever reason
ran outside his postional comfort zone in the Derby, and STILL only got beat a couple by FC. Then he had a 5 week freshener, healed, worked repeatedly and faces a horse today who was crying to regress. When CJ posted his version of Belmonts past performaces, the picture was clear to me and I took off the rubberband, so to speak. This was one of the surest bets I have made this year. And I thought 5-2 was a generous overlay. I wish I had just bet win and ignored the exotics - I was close, but only had a saver exacta made at the last minute, that offset some of the triple money. The key to this race was to bet the race and not the triple crown.
I give FC credit - he took it to them and told them come get me. He did what a champion does, up to the point they came and got him <G> but there was no disgrace in defeat today. In fact, I respect him more for racing to win instead of racing to not get beat.

[Kentucky Bred]

You are so right about picking the race not the Triple Crown. Both look liked they would handle the track and did. Another reason is the experience of Frankel in these types of races. There is simply no substitute. You played the race and value and that made all the difference.

I know the taste of that steak. There is simply no better flavor. The birds sing a little sweeter after a nice call like that.

Kentucky Bred (The redboarder)

[superfecta]

The simple fact is that the horse was due to regress at some point,and the two horses that had time to bounce back after a hard race beat him.No shame in that.The price horse was Ten Most Wanted,not EM.And I wonder,what the track varient was?Cause if it was high (say around 25 in the DRF)Then FC ran the same as he did in Kentucky.That last 1/4 was too much for him,as it could for any horse that ran in all three legs of the Triple Crown.I heard talk today at the Racino that this proves that EM was the best three year old this year.But I will take the winner of two jewels over one Belmont any day.

[Suff]

Tough Loss. And it was a Downer that FC did'nt win. I wanted him to win badly.

The bad part was..

It was Obvious up the Back stretch that Funnycide was a Bit Rank and would'nt cooperate with Santos. And if there was any doubt.....on the turn when EM was one length off him...Gliding on ice , just waiting to pounce. Santos hands were way up on FC's neck....Bailey had'nt even asked EM to run yet and he was overtaking FC. It was clear then he would'nt win.

So even as a FC fan....it was a Lousy race to watch when 5 furlongs out you knew it would take a Miracle.


Congratulations to NYRA and NYC Horse people for putting on an excellent show....and a SUPERB undercard.


A great Day for racing. Anyone have the Overnights for ratings? AndiCap should be able to get his hands on those if he's around.

Sorry he lost...But I enjoyed the entire Triple Crown road. And I had a lot of fun this year.....and made some shinkles too!!

[Bubbles]

Down by the rail, the Belmont wasn't a race, IT WAS A FREAKING FREE-FOR-ALL! You have a buncha drunks chanting "TAKE THEM DOWN!" (umbrellas), and then we all chanted at Bob Costas until he acknowledged us, which he finally did (all five feet, two inches of him).

When they went into the first turn, somebody broke down the barrier holding fans three feet from the rail, and everyone scrambled for a spot. Being 6'3", it didn't really matter (second row), but a four-foot-tall lady from the Bronx said this phrase at me for no good reason...

"YOU GOD(BLEEP!!!) SON OF A (BLEEP!!!)!"

Shoulda choke-slammed her onto the track, as the crowd wouldah gone nuts. She ended up trying to burrow her way through the crowd. After EM won, I turned to walk away, and someone was yelling at her real good (Thank you lord).

Anyway, I ended up $15 ahead on the day. Shouldah been $115, but that GOD(BLEEP!!!)-SON-OF-A-(BLEEP!!!)-two horse in the first race got second by a neck, costing me a three-figure profit.

That's not the worst part of the day. When I went back to my beloved Chrysler Lebaron convertible, (and I'm sure Andicap can relate) it wouldn't start. Needed a jump from a Jeep, and now I gotta replace the alternator. Sweet...

All in all, Belmont's not a bad place, except when you're trying to get out (QUESTION: Why did Bubbles cross the NY-NJ border six times? ANSWER: LOOKING FOR THAT BLASTED CROSS ISLAND PARKWAY!!!!!). Thought of the day-When getting directions to somewhere, get them coming back as well! Later!

[penguinfan]

Originally posted by Bubbles
Thought of the day-When getting directions to somewhere, get them coming back as well! Later!

Been there, Done that!

Penguinfan

[Tom]

I saw camera shots of Belmont yesterday on TV that Ihad never seen before. What BIG place! It looked like a long distance call from the rail to the tote board! And what is that big screen in the infield...a drive in movie????
Looking cross ways over the main track and two turf courses, you get an idea that this is not finger Lakes!
I think I might even want to go there just once, not to bet, but just to see it and all the hoopla there.
Do they sell "red" chowder there? That was a must have on my Saratoga visits.

[stuball]

Sounds like it was a real joy at Belmont....That's why I would rather stay at home...people lose all their common sense...

Jerry Bailey said that he had never heard such noise in all the time he has been riding...it must have been deafening....

Way to Go Empire Maker and Funny Cide..I want to see them run when they are both rested....We'll see maybe later

Stuball

[Bubbles]

Originally posted by stuball

Way to Go Empire Maker and Funny Cide..I want to see them run when they are both rested....We'll see maybe later

Stuball

Travers anyone?

[Suff]

Originally posted by Bubbles
Travers anyone?

Thats the Early word on the street. They'll take seperate paths and Rematch in the "mid-summer derby" , Aug 23rd at Saratoga.

[delayjf]

I don't think this race proves EM superiority over FC.

As I recall, the Wood was only FC second start of his three year old season, I don't think he was at his best that day.

In the Derby, EM and FC eyeballed each other and FC flat out beat him down the stretch. I don't buy the foot excuse. If it was bothering him, EM would not have run as well as he did, he would have finished way up the track, not second. Does anybody believe EM would have beaten FC in the Preakness??

Instead I think three things contributed to FC defeat.
1.) The fast work had him too much on edge.

2.) The cumlative effect of the Derby and Preakness. I agree he was certainly primed to bounce.

3.) Santo's tactics which resulted in FC being pinned on the rail which I guess was not the place to be. I'd like to hear other opinions on the outside bias. Also, I would have prefered an openning 1/4 in 24 and change not 23 and change, on a rank horse at 1 and 1/2 miles, it could make a difference. Many believe it made a difference for Affirmed.

Congrats to those who scored big, I didn't bet a dime.
On to the Travers.

[Bubbles]

The rail was absolutely dead. In the True North, the speed horse on the rail just got blown away by the eventual winner coming off the turn. And in the Riva Ridge, Midas Eyes switched to the inside in the stretch but got run down in the last few strides by Posse, who was running a good two, three paths outside of him. The third race was the only exception, as the 6-horse managed to hold on by a diminishing length over my 9-horse (hit that race). I may have left out a few other good examples. Does anyone else have 'em?

[VetScratch]

48 program change scratches in 13 races!!!

What a joke!!!

[cj]

1st race-Horse wins by 10 at 3-5, doesn't tell us much.
3rd race-Fave wins on the lead near the rail, holds off the 9 who saved ground before swinging out late.
4th race-7-2 3d choice wires em in the two path
6th race-Again, the fave gets up to narrowly beat the 9-1 pacesetter on the rail with the second choice also nipping the pace setter out of second
7th race-The heavy cheese duels an overmatched speedster into defeat from the 2 path...a horse rallies up the rail to almost catch him
9th race-The favorite is duels all the way around the track in the two path, then gets nipped on the wire by an obvious horse who benefitted from that duel.
11th race-We all saw this race...FC was just not the same horse today, the only other with a chance holds off TMW while close to the inside after TMW drew on near even terms.
12th race-Clergy saved ground all the way around the track before swinging wide late to catch the pacesetter, who also saved ground and just couldn't get 7f, as he never had before either.
13th race-Official comment from the charts...TRAVELATOR raced with the pace along the inside, drew clear in the stretch then dug in gamely and held on under a drive.

Where is the bias...I honestly don't see it!

One other thing, the single biggest piece of evidence I can find that the rail was fine is this...Santos was on it! He knows the track as well as anyone and would have stayed off it if it wasn't.

CJ

[Racehorse]

I have said it before ...
am NOT a horse man
know NOTHING about horses

I use speed and math

now, in this race ...

HOW MANY TIMES did FC change leads ....

hey, folks, I don't know a dang thing about horses .. could change the saddle blanket with the racehorse and the lead pony and I might NOT notice, for I am not a horse man ...

BUT
Funny Cide did NOT like that track ... did NOT want to run on it ... hated it when it is noticable to me ...

I don't think there was anything in the workouts that took away from FC ... no training lack ... no smallness of heart ...
he plain and simply did NOT like THAT mud THAT day ...

I posted here on this forum my small wagers ..
and I did make a tad bit of profit on the race ...
would've made a lot more had the 4 won

Frankel deserves a GREAT JOB AWARD for bringing EM to hand in prep for such a big race by workouts ..and not even workouts on a proper form ... track was unsuitable for good workout and Frakel got it done ....
my hat is off to him for a job well done

[delayjf]

CJ,
thanks for your input, I confess I was listening to the commentators as well as Luzzi who claimed that the rail was bad. I know Santos knows that track like the back of his hand. Still, wasn't there a tendency for a bad rail most of the week??

RACEHORSE
Nice observation. I think we as handicappers tend to think that because a horse has handled an off track in the past that he can handle ANY off track. Lesson here is that not all off tracks are equal.

[hurrikane]

IMHO,

regardless of the conditions, this horse was not ready today. I also think he is not TC material. If so he would have won in any conditions. This is suppose to be the best of the best of the best!

Maybe he woke up and said.."Hey, I've won 2 TC races..can't we do this tommorrow?".
Maybe he woke up and looked down and said, "you ain't got it boy..but make a good showing." :D

Can't say what FC was thinking but I do know there was nothing about the way this horse looked in the post that would make me believe he was ready to run a good race, much less the race of his life (or the life of the owners).

It may have had something to do with bias, track, works, rest, sun, moon, or whatever, but, even without all that, I bet against that horse on physicallity.

[JustRalph]

Funny ran his race on Tuesday and EM ran his on Saturday.....

[Tom]

I think he was embarrassed to have to decline the trip to the breeding farm, so he pulled himself up. :rolleyes:

[PaceAdvantage]

So, when Risen Star ran 33 and change 3 days before the Belmont Stakes, and then proceeded to blow the doors off of EVERYONE in the Belmont Stakes....THAT fast workout was OK.

BUT....FC's fast workout was what did him in??? Don't think so...

I think the constant lead changes showed everyone who bothered to look why FC did not run his best race.....

John DaSilva of the New York Post stated on the radio that the track maintenance crew SCRAPED a LOT off the RAIL, and off the OUTSIDE of the track, then did something with the middle that I can't remember off hand....all this was done on FRIDAY NIGHT after the races were over...

I got to the track early on Saturday....they were doing ALL SORTS of things to the track because they did NOT KNOW what the weather was going to do....they cut the track OPEN for the first race, then they re-sealed it again before the 2nd race....

That track was messed with SO MUCH prior to the Belmont Stakes, that it doesn't take much to believe that FC just plain did not handle the surface.....

That's my take on things. Let's see what happnes when FC and EM meet up again. Frankel says EM will never lose to FC again....I doubt that very much.


==PA

[Pace Cap'n]

Tom Durkin was interiewed shortly before the big race and gave his opinion that the rail was not the place to be. Puddles and such.

Santos was also interviewed before the race, and he stated that all paths were equal. Having won three races already, he must have known whereof he spoke.

[JustRalph]

I wouldn't say that the workout was everything. I re-racked the tape and watched again. You have a very valid point about the lead changes. I have a feeling he would have run better on a fast surface. But I still don't understand that workout. Too Fast if you ask me. But then again.........Risen Star had a little bit of Daddy in him......... :cool:

[Bruddah]

Fellas, a horse that isn't taking to the track virtually will never be rank and agressive. Especially, be pulling his jock out of the saddle to take the lead. If they don't like the track surface, in almost all cases the horse becomes timid and not aggressive. Why, because he is unsure of his footing. Stop with this excuse stuff. Simply...Empire Maker has been the best horse on the 2 out of 3 meetings...on that day. Funny Cide was the best horse on Derby day. These 3 year olds are changing from week to week and race to race.

[ceejay]

Originally posted by Sufferindowns
Anyone have the Overnights for ratings?
http://tcm.bloodhorse.com/viewstory.asp?id=16311

Ratings up 13% and best since 1990.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Bruddah
Stop with this excuse stuff. Simply...Empire Maker has been the best horse on the 2 out of 3 meetings...on that day. Funny Cide was the best horse on Derby day. These 3 year olds are changing from week to week and race to race.

Hey Bruddah
What makes you think we are making excuses. It is called post race analysis and if you do it right you get better at handicapping. If you banter it around here with some knowledgeable people (pick and choose) who over time prove they know what they are talking about you can learn something. There are some damn good cappers in here on any given day. I went through this last year on the Triple Crown and it was pretty good debate. Not excuses. Why the hell would I make an excuse. I didn't have a dime in the race. I didn't think they would have let Empire Maker go off that long so I didn't play. I wish I would have paid more attention to the odds and played EM but what the heck. I didn't turn the TV on until about 5 till post. I wasn't about to play FC i.e. short price. I would have liked to see him win, for the sport. But these are not excuses. It falls under analysis. You do yours, PA and I will do ours. It's good for some of us. I have learned a bunch of stuff in here over the last year or so. It brings perspective to the game.

[cj]

I agree, no doubt, that Empire Maker was the better horse Saturday. But lets not forget he sat out a dance, so Funny Cide is still the leading 3yo in the land. Empire Maker will have to beat him again, probably in the Travers, and will never get a shot at a 1 1/2 mile race against him again.

CJ

[PaceAdvantage]

Hey Bruddah,

Explain the constant lead changes on the turns (INCLUDING THE FIRST TURN)....FC never did this before...

Why was he doing this? I can't believe for a minute that EVERY horse handles a track they DON'T LIKE in similar manner. You say a horse that doesn't like a surface will not be aggressive, will not pull on his rider. What is your basis for saying that EVERY horse will react in the SAME MANNER when they don't like a surface??

I like my explanation better...and I think it is a very VALID EXCUSE for Funny Cide. That track was a MESS, and it was TOYED WITH the moment racing stopped on Friday night.

I've become MORE of a FC fan BECAUSE of this Belmont, if only because I want to see Frankel and Bailey eat crow. I DON'T believe for a second that Empire Maker is the better horse. I still think Empire Maker is completely overrated simply because he has some good breeding.

I truly believe FC will prove to be the best horse in the end....if they both stay healthy, they should meet at least two more times this year. If FC wins both times, he'll win the season 3-2....LOL


==PA


PS. I didn't have a DIME on the Belmont Stakes. Because of the weather, we were forced to abandon our seats around the 9th race, and I gave up betting right after that.....so, I don't have any sour grapes because I lost or won any $$....although we were able to get back to our seats in order to watch the Belmont....the weather pretty much put a big damper on the day for me...

[Figman]

The shoe store and weather service that Bobby Frankel patronized late Saturday morning resulted in a quality purchase and forecast that made a huge difference. The rolled, sealed track changed noticeably with each added hour of rainfall. Many of the regular New York handicappers always look for an important factor on a real soupy off track like Saturday...and that is "four-wheel" drive. Only EMPIRE MAKER was equipped with "bend-shoes" AND mud-calks!" that are commonly called around NYRA - "four-wheel" drive. FUNNY CIDE uncharacteristically "changed leads" numerous times during the race including on both turns. Translated, FUNNY CIDE was unsure of the footing and could not get smooth and comfortable. EMPIRE MAKER got a good grip and was smooth as could be. Just one experienced handicapper's opinion.

[VetScratch]

Figman pointed out:

"Only EMPIRE MAKER was equipped with bend-shoes AND mud-calks!"

I fully understand your point. However, by bend-shoes, do you mean what trainers usually call turn-downs? If so, I thought they were illegal in NYRA, as they are on many circuits.

Unfortunately, on several circuits where turn-downs are illegal, the most influential barns can rely on lax enforcement by the Paddock Judge and other officials to routinely break the rules.

I would hope that this was not the case for the Belmont Stakes.

[Richard]

It was a great Triple Crown even though the dry spell continues.These last two years a longshot won the Derby and then the Preakness so I did a little research (A lot of you no doubt already know this).No longshot Derby winner has gone on to win the Crown(I condsider a longshot as 5/1 or better).The highest paying Derby winner to win the Crown was Omaha(KD 1935 4/1).It seems all Triple Crown winner in the Derby were either the betting favorite or darn close to it.The website for my researchis:
www.kentuckyderby.com/2003/derby_history/derby_connections/winner_at_a_glance.html

[Figman]

VetScratch
The NYRA shoe rules are as follows: Only plain hind shoes may have a bend up to a quarter of an inch and all other shoes must be flat. Stickers (calks) no longer than three-eighths of an inch(front only), bar shoes, aluminum pads, clips, wedges and plastic shoes are permitted all around. For the turf (grass races on all grass courses) on Queens Plate and Queens Plate XT shoes will be allowed on the fron and hind.

[VetScratch]

Figman,

The rules are clear, but their interpretation is what counts as Bobby Frankel knows from experience. Here is an interesting news snippet from 1995 Classic:
=============================================
Cigar was wearing his simple aluminum plates with a traditional toe grab that had been put on about 10 days after his victorious Jockey Club Gold Cup, Oct. 7. The morning of the Classic, blacksmith Jim Bayes pulled off the hind shoes and hammered a slight downward angle to the tips, creating what he explained was the same effect as a cleat or a sticker.

As far as Bobby Frankel was concerned, though, they looked illegal. The eagled-eyed Hall of Famer caught a glimpse of Cigar's hind shoes as the favorite walked by the saddling stalls. He then went to an official.

"That horse is wearing turndowns," Frankel said. "Maybe someone should take a look."

Turndowns, now banned in most jurisdictions, were the shoe of choice for several New York trainers two years ago. With their extreme downward angle at the back of the shoes, they could grip a loose surface and provide better traction than more common off-track plates.

"Cigar was not wearing turndowns as we define them," said Clinton Pitts, steward for The Jockey Club. "They were more like what is called a `trailer.' They were not specially forged, and there were no wedges building them up. They appeared to be shoes right out of the box."
============================================

So Clinton Pitts allows trailers but not turndowns?

I see no reference to trailers in the rules you posted! And for good reason! Trailers are nothing more than "designer" turndowns with respect to the effect intended by the blacksmith.

I give Frankel credit for knowing turndowns when he sees them, and he surely never forgot the lesson he learned about NYRA enforcement diligence on that day in '95 when Cigar won the Classic.

[Shacopate]

My two cents,

1. Frankel seems to have a personal grudge against Funny Cide, so I think it's only fair to tally the score like this: WOOD MEMORIAL - Bobby 1 Funny Cide 0. DERBY- Funny Cide 2 (beat two Bobby's) Bobby 1. PREAKNESS- Funny Cide 3 Bobby 1. BELMONT (and current score) Funny Cide 3 Bobby 2.

2. Barclay, or perhaps Mr. Tagg would be more appropriate, please give Funny Cide a well-deserved rest. It kills me to see the good ones bounce after a hard triple crown. Seattle Slew lost to J.O. Tobin in his next start. Sunday Silence lost to Prized.
Enjoy the money, respect and fan support you've earned.

3. Can anyone tell me what Jerry Bailey handed to Pat Day after the finish line when they slapped hands? I couldn't see what it was. :D

[Handy Cap]

The fact is, Empire Maker was not asked for run when he went by Funny Cide....

Fact is....If Empire had Funny Cides trip in the Derby, Empire wins by open lengths...

Fact is...Barclay Tagg isnt the sharpest tool in the shed..

Fact is....If the rail wasn't slow that day, why did Baily hurry Em off the rail as soon as he got clearence to do so???

I dont know if the mathmaticians and formula boys were able to take thier eyes off of their lap tops long enough to watch the race, but EM was clearly in a better part of the track, and went by FC who to me looked worse on the track then some of the 5 claimers at Penn National that night...

Fact is....FC is not that good of a horse, and EM is a better horse any day of the week. And given a short field, where EM isnt running from post 43 and FC from post 5....no matter if its 4 1/2 furlongs or 3 miles, EM wins 19 of 20 times.

So continue to punch your pace and speed figures and tell me why FC is this and that, but Frankel is right...FC will never beat EM again...Hell, I doubt he will ever beat Ten Most Wanted again....

[VetScratch]

Handy Cap:

Your facts support the assertion that Empire Maker was the real threat to take the Triple Crown. After all three races, my figures have Tagg/Funny-Cide still in front of Frankel/Empire-Maker by about 6,262 yards. <vbg>

[Shacopate]

Fact is...Bailey chose post 12 for the Derby when he could've had better, so don't whine about the trip.

Fact is...The Derby and Preakness trophies belong to Barclay Tagg. This man works seven hard days a week and refuses to go to bed before he drives to the barn and checks on his horses. He's a class act.

Fact is...Empire Maker wasn't entered in the Preakness. Why? If he's so great? (oh I forgot, Bobby doesn't like to run his horses against each other)

Fact is...Peace Rules got drilled by Funny Cide in the Preakness.

[plainolebill]

Originally posted by Handy Cap
Fact is....FC is not that good of a horse, and EM is a better horse any day of the week.

And twice on Sundays :D :D :D

[Suff]

Originally posted by Handy Cap
The fact is, Empire Maker was not asked for run when he went by Funny Cide....

Fact is....If Empire had Funny Cides trip in the Derby, Empire wins by open lengths...



Fact is.........This aint a Fact. Its your opinion. The FACT really is. That in two Matchups its one apiece. Funnycide gets the Nod as the better horse right now. Beat EM in the race that counts. The Kentucky Derby. Won the Preakness by 10. (while EM Rested) and missed by a few on a day that clealry he was not at his peak.

[alysheba88]

"You are so right about picking the race not the Triple Crown. Both look liked they would handle the track and did. Another reason is the experience of Frankel in these types of races. There is simply no substitute. You played the race and value and that made all the difference"


Frankel may be a great trainer but he has NOT been a great TC trainer. In fact he has been a poor one. His Breeders Cup record leaves much to be desired as well

[Bruddah]

You are right, these drills do give a better insight of the race and that's what these boards are meant to do.

Pace Advantage...I haven't seen you offer anything other than your opinion that FC didn't like the track surface, as the reason for FC changing leads. Your assertion that he hadn't done it before, therfore it must be because of the track surface, is an opinion only and not fact and it doesn't hold water, no pun intended.

Here are the facts which I use to debate otherwise;
1. FC ran his usual "style" race, taking over on or about the second call. Check the PP's and the charts of his races. He pulled his Jock to the front.

2. He ran simular races in both the Wood Mem. (Aqu) and the Preakness (Pim). He ran a close second in the former and won the latter. Both of these races were off tracks.

3. He galloped over a "messy" off track for almost two weeks prior to the Belmont. His home track.

4. The horses connections prior to the race and after the race, haven't alluded to the horse not taking to the tracks surface due to the wet weather. Just the opposite, Barclay Tagg assured the media the wet weather wouldn't make a difference to FC.

5. Bobby Frankel, on the other hand, scheduled a race at Monmouth in lieu of working EM on a wet surface, switching to a turf workout at the last moment.

6. All of the horses (6) had to run under the same conditions.

These are facts, not personal opinions or assertions. Your turn Sir.

[PaceAdvantage]

Bruddah,

Where did I ever try to pass off my posts as facts?? Of course these are my OPINIONS. NOBODY knows what the facts are, except for Funny Cide himself, and he ain't talkin....

Handy Cap,

FC was much closer to the pace in the Derby....EM went a little wide, but ENJOYED CLEAR SAILING in the Derby, and had the WHOLE STRETCH to pass FC. If EM is such the better horse, what happened? (Oh yeah, he hurt his hoof...forgot about that whole mess)

In my OPINION (are you listening Bruddah), after watching the Derby a number of times, EM enjoyed a VERY CLEAN TRIP, one that would have been desired by many if not all of the trainers going into that race....

==PA

[PaceAdvantage]

Let's all hope that both horses stay healthy and can answer all of our questions over the next 5 months. Should be a great summer/fall if these two stay healthy, and the older horses come into the picture.

Then, and only then will we truly know how good EM and/or FC really are.....

Already this year is shaping up to be 100x more exciting than last year.....


==PA

[Handy Cap]

But the thing is...Empire Maker wasnt even asked...he went around FC like FC was standing still...and EM wasnt even asked for run...until challenged by ten Most Wanted

The Preakness was probably one of the weakest Preakness fields around...with Peace Rules being the only valid contender. Some high priced claiming three year olds could have contended in that race.

[Secretariat]

Well, I generally don't get into these debates, but felt very comfortable Empire Maker would win the Belmont. He didn't pay crap but the Funny Cide band wagon was vastly overplayed.

One, Empire Maker was injured before the Derby and still ran a helluva race. Rested he was sure to run big in the Belmont.

Two, Empire Maker beat Funny Cide comfortably, as Baily was letting up near the wire on a Muddy Track. This confirmed Empire Maker's ability to run on the Mud, and it verified he may very wel have inherited Unbridled's great pedigree for running on the mud.

Three, Winning three races in the Triple Crown has proven to be a incredbile challenge. That's what makes it so difficult and so great. Funny Cide is a decent horse, but certainly NEVER worth below even odds against these challenges.

Four, changing running style as Santos did was confusing. Why mess with success? It reminded me of Sham in the Belmont trying to force the lead, but that is generally the sign of a horse who is having trouble winning with his normal style. A strange move. I guess they just couldn't contain the horse at the start.

Five, Frankel is a much better trainer than Tagg as the win% and ROI show.

That said, it would have been nice to see Vindicator, At's What I'm Talking About, and some of the thoer injured horses in that BEL run.

It was fun though. That's what makes horse racing the greatest sport on earth.

[Bruddah]

I just thought in order to debate and support either of our points of view, we should rely on facts. This post mortem of the Belmont should be factual instead of being based on contentions and emotions. I must admit my "BS" statement, in my first post, was emotion and felt compelled to present facts to further explain, why I felt the track surface played no role in the race's outcome. Especially, causing FC to change leads. Unsure footing causes most horses to stay on one lead, not to be changing.

When a horse is unsure of it's footing, their instinct takes over. They tend to slow down in order to protect themselves. Thoroughbreds are skittish over the slightest little thing and unsure footing is a huge fear of horses. They do not run strong and pull their jockeys to the lead and race as hard as they can. They especially do not run the same race, style and form wise, as they have in all previous races.

Their is another reason for FC to have been changing leads. FC knows for sure, but like you pointed out, he ain't talking and his connections are probably scratching their heads today.

[andicap]

1) For what its worth, FC's assistant trainer Robin Smullan was quoted in today's paper as saying FC didn't like the track -- she said he was uncomfortable on it -- that's way he changed leads.
(Of course trainers are famous for saying this when they lose -- who knows?)


2) PA pointed out the Risen Star had a fast workout too but it didn't affect him. But all horses are different. A fast workout might not have hurt Risen Star, but it might have taken a bit of the edge off the FC. Tagg admitted that the work out a bit faster than he wanted. Or it might not have. The horse ain't telling.

3. Someone here (or was it on another board I was looking at?) suggested that Tagg fire his assistant trainer for working FC too fast.
1) hardly likely. That's his girl friend.
2) The workout rider can't always control a 1,000 horse. If the horse wants to go, how is a 120 lb rider going to stop him?

4)
Anyway, who the hell knows what cost FC on Saturday? Probably a combo of a lot of stuff mentioned here. We can argue til the Cubs win the Series about whether FC liked the track or not -- but WE WILL NEVER KNOW. Horses cant talk. The same about the workout. Good points all, but until Monty Roberts posts here, it's all speculation.
. Not putting down the debate -- that's what we're here for and it's run-- but remember we're all equally ignorant on lots of these issues so there's not much room for the degree of arrogance I see around here on some posts.

5) The one thing posted here that is arguable -- and interesting -- is whether the rail was dead or not. I have no idea, but it's a great debate. Nice post CJ.

6) I also find it hard to put down EM just because his connections made a bad decision on post position in the Derby and passed on the Preakness. That's a statement on the connections, not the horse. If Frankel wants to argue that EM is a better horse than FC, let him. He's got a great case (as does FC.)
While I didn't like Frankel's behavior before the Belmont -- he didn't want a TC because he wants to be the person to do it (that's not really thinking about the sports's best interest -- I can see him not wanting a TC because he had EM in the race, but Frankel's answer was more arrogant and selfish.) -- he was right in taking the Preakness off once he didn't have a shot in the TC.

7) And hats off to Frankel for planning to take on FC head-on at the Travers (same for Tagg). In an age when trainers avoid great matchups until the Breeders Cup, lets toast two sportsman who are doing what's best for the sport!

8) Another poster wondered (in jest I believe/hope) what FC was thinking Saturday morning.
I know exactly what FC was thinking. This: .............................

Horses are pea-brained animals. They don't think, although of course they react and have feelings, emotions and they react to external stimuli like crowds, people, etc. FC had no idea on Saturday morning what was going to happen Saturday afternoon.

Dave Barry had a great line about dogs' brains. He compared it to a bb in a tuna can, with one tiny little thought rolling around there (mainly "Will he feed me?" or "Will he walk me?"). And dogs are smarter than horses.
Now if we can start dolphin racing, then we can start speculating about what they were thinking.
:D

[VetScratch]

Bruddah:

Your post is a perfect example of explaining horse performances by first giving human attributes to horses, and then analyzing performance as if humans ran the races.

[spotwinshow]

Connections are as confused as the public so anything is possible and no one is the wiser!
I love to talk about the big races but not bet any stakes! Even when I think every horse had a fair shot they are so evenly matched that any little thing can make the difference!

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by spotwinshow
Connections are as confused as the public so anything is possible and no one is the wiser! I love to talk about the big races but not bet any stakes! Even when I think every horse had a fair shot they are so evenly matched that any little thing can make the difference!

SpotWinShow: You don't bet stakes races? You are missing some great opportunities.

Andi: Nice post.....

Vetscratch: good info, thanks. The shoes always throw me....

I have watched the race over and over. FC was rank....and he was working his ass off it seemed coming down the stretch. Very poor form and refusing to change leads at the end. I think it was a surface issue. I am still skeptical about that workout though. It made for a good spring.

[Suff]

Looks Like Kentucky Bred knew what he was doing when he started this thread. Seems a few people have some things on thier chest about The Race,the first two legs, both horses, The connections.

Funnycide got a bad rap from the git go. The Miami herald. Then he whooped them by 10 and he still got a bad rap. He ran third to a horse that ran an excellent race. He got beat.

Funnycide. Great race Horse. He has Ran many great races already in his young Career. Will Run many More.

Funnycide.

Winner of the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby.
Winner of the Grade 1 Preakness
2nd in Grade 1 Wood Memorial
3rd in the Grade 1 Belmont
3rd in Grade 2 LaDerby
Winner of two NY Stakes Races.
Broke Maiden in First race, by 14 Lengths. 96 beyer.


Now? You Gonna come out here and say This aint a Great race horse? Maybe on your Keyboard you can say that with a straight face.

[Handy Cap]

LOL...the people that are griping at the EM fans to quit talking about the trip EM had in the derby, are talking about the bad trip FC had in the Belmont...LOL....ya gotta love it

[cj]

Bad trip in the Derby? Maybe next time, the all knowing Frankel won't choose to start from the grandstand!

CJ

[Bruddah]

I suppose if I told you a horse feared fire and would run back to the perceived safety of their stalls, this would be assigning human traits to their actions. I have stated facts to support my view point. I have yet to see one supporting fact from you. Instead you reach out for an absurd assumption. Oh yes, I think the little horseys are so cute...just like little human babies. :D :D

[delayjf]

How many times have we seen quality horses continue to compete after hurting themselfs. Ruffian, Ladys Secret, Charismatic, etc. What is your reference that tells you all horses react this way.
- Why didn't EM react to his "so called injury" in the same manner by throwing in the towel in the Derby. Wouldn't an injury invoke the same reaction.
- I'm curious as to the speed figures for the belmont. Did FC run back to his best only to have EM run a new Beyer top several lenght faster than his Derby effort?
- EM and FC eye balled each other at the top of the stretch on a fast track at the Classic distance and EM blinked. FC pulled a way from him.
- Even if you don't think the multiple lead changes had anything to do with his like or dislike of the track, it meant something and I'm sure it was not positive.
- Not all off tracks are the same, that was a boat race.
- If Bailey didn't want the rail, that tells me it was bad.

[Tom]

I'd love to chime in with some more "facts" about why FC lost and EM won, but I don't have the time. I am still spending the money I made on EM by never doubting him (although I had second thoughts on Frankel) -one off race-the Derby, after a bruised foot and lack of works, wide post, out of postion early, and still only beaten a couple while delivering his B race. This was one of the easist bets I ever made. It was the kind of bet you wait for. In my opinion, a big overlay. In three meetings, he beat FC twice. In looking at the preakness field, how can anyone be impressed with a 10 length win in the mud against that field?
The thing that really impressed me was CJ's printouots of the race in his stlye figures. They were shouting out EM,EM,EM!
Now, here's a fact to be aware of. Now that triple crwon fever has died down, and there is nothing on the horizon for two months, the 3yo crop becomes very interesting. A lot of big prices are sitting out there, waiting for this intermission. The B group has a few stakes opportunities while the A team rests. This is the time to make some serious money on the late bloomers. And the Tavers winner just might be tuning up tight now, at a river, er, ah, track near you. :rolleyes:

[Kentucky Bred]

I'm simply blown away with how this thread has developed. In my mind one of the best threads so far this year. And NOT because I started it because I could have never invisioned where it would take off to. A serious compliment to everybody who has participated and will participate if people want to. Tons of disagreement with excellent arguments for each side and everyone was civil and fought up to the line and not over it. That is cool...debate without hate.

Anyway enough of my BS. One thing that has become clear to me over the past few days. I am affected sometimes, on a personal level, by some horse races. Not just numbers and Beyers and such, but real drama played out on a racetrack between real people managing real horses. I am still angry that Funny Cide didn't win. I don't care whether he was the best horse. For once I was rooting for racing. I went to a party among people in Kentucky who didn't own any racehorses. There was at least 70 people there. At least 60 were huddled around a little TV set that we wired up on a small mountain to watch the race. It was just a moment in history which could have given racing the boost in the arm which Secretariat did at the time he emerged. Funny Cide is no Secretariat, I know, but the impact would have been huge. I would really like to see racing have a national impact. Hell, what's so great about watching any other sporting event anymore? (Unless you are Suff watching a Red Sox game)

And this radio BS about changing the dates of the TC to June -July so that the horses could be stronger and have less injuries. This is stupid. Do you really want your next TC winner to have an asterisk by his name? Nothing can change. Deal with the weather...the travel...the media...the injuries...the workouts...the race strategy...the jockey strategy...the shoes...the gate preps...the track condition...and the luck.

That's why it is so hard. Quoting a recent movie, maybe "hard is what makes it good". (pardon the sexual overtones--LOL)

Kentucky Bred

[VetScratch]

Bruddah:

Please accept my sincere apology. After reviewing your post, I finally get it, and can only surmise that you must be a trainer, jockey, exercise rider, groom, or hotwalker.

Your facts are irrefutable:

(1) "Unsure footing causes most horses to stay on one lead, not to be changing."

(2) "They do not run strong and pull their jockeys to the lead and race as hard as they can."

(3) "They especially do not run the same race, style and form wise, as they have in all previous races."

Please entertain us with more insider revelations in the future!

You are the Dean of Anthropomorphic Handicapping.

[Tom]

Being there was only one race around two turns, and the track
had whitecaps, there is no way a legit Beyer number can be calculated on anything other than someone's opinion of how they ran. Besides, why would you want to use a Beyer from a mile and a half race for any normal races? I never saw a track condition listed as "wavy" before? :eek:

[Bruddah]

While you pontificate and jeer, let me remind you, we all wait, with baited breath and anticipation for your facts. You must be trying for the Triple Crown of Avoidance of facts to support your contentions. Your demeanor seems to speak from a lofty perch built upon these pearls of truth....:D :D

[VetScratch]

Bruddah:

I plead guilty to jeering, but I never attempted to contend with your interpretation of Funny Cide's performance in the Belmont. I was merely heckling you for pleading your case with opinions proferred as statements of fact.

Why don't you apply for work at the nearest track kitchen and discuss your views of horse behavior with working horsemen?

[Suff]

Originally posted by Bruddah
Oh yes, I think the little horseys are so cute...just like little human babies. :D :D


"If all Babies are so cute....Where The F, did we get all these Ugly people."


Quote: From My Brother after being dragged around all day to "see the Baby" with his wife. He got so tired of every woman calling every baby the "Cutest thing"......he blurted this out. I stole it and been using it ever since.

[PaceAdvantage]

Funny Cide had the perfect trip in the Belmont....1:13 and change for 6f was a great time for a horse on the lead.

I don't think the FC people are saying FC got a bad trip in the Belmont....he just might have had a legitimate excuse in his dislike of the monsoon conditions, just like EM might have had a legitimate exscuse in the Derby with his hoof.

If we give EM a pass in the Derby, and FC a pass in the Belmont, we are left with the Wood Memorial, which pretty much proved these animals are, as of now, fairly equal in ability. Until they meet again, there isn't much more to be said....


==PA

[Speed Figure]

I think the big problem was that funny cide is not a front runner. When i saw he was going to set the pace i knew he was done!:(

[Tom]

Good observation.....time will tell. Good horses lose because X happened. GREAT horses win in spite of X happening.

[DJofSD]

VetScratch:

I don't think what Bruddah has posted is anthropomorphizing horses. IMO, what he's stated are fairly straightforward observations about equine behavior.

Would you have a different 'tude if the author was Joe Takach?

[Shacopate]

Empire Maker-----110.

Solid, but not mind blowing. The same fig that he got in the Wood and the same fig that Ten Most Wanted earned in the ID.

Funny Cide's 114 in the Preakness is still tops in the triple crown series.

The Travers Stakes will be a great race and the best horse will win. That horses name is Funny Cide.

[VetScratch]

Since FC is a gelding, and is almost certainly the best horse his owners will ever have, planning his future is a difficult task.

It would be a blessing for racing if FC can stay sound enough to be a marquee attraction for several years as was the case for Forego, Kelso, and John Henry.

Depending on how fundamentally sound he is right now, his connections need to decide what their priorities are. Do they want as many more wonderful Saturdays as they can possibly get, or do they want all the glory they can get this year?

Because syndication is the pot of gold for colts, economics will invite management against short-term objectives for the nicest colts in this year's crop. Races that are extremely influential in the breeding industry will dictate when and where the best colts will run. These are also the races that are usually won only by performing at extraordinary stress levels.

When, but only when, ALL circumstances are favorable, FC has demonstrated enough ability to compete with the very best. Otherwise, perhaps FC should wisely pursue the path of least risk and resistance. If he were mine, we would take a very conservative approach in the hope that we could hold the horse together for as long as possible. The ultimate thrill would be to capture two or three graded stakes at age seven or eight (after four or five years of carefully managed success).

[Bruddah]

you wouldn't be allowed on the backside of any race track. The only backside you know anything about is where your brain resides.

Go back and read my second post and you will find plenty of FACTS. Again you say, I have offered only my opinions. I think the readers of this thread haven't read anything of importance from you regarding handicapping or a horses behaviour. Certainly not anything remotely resembling a fact. Your sarcasm and boorish posts reveal your total lack of intellect and ability to articulate and debate your viewpoints. Go back to your little wallow and practice this phrase, "Would you like fries with that sir?". Maybe one day you will be able to discuss horse racing on the level of a first grader.:D :D

[VetScratch]

Bruddah:

I think you need some quiet time to check your alleged facts.

As you suggested, I refer to your second post: "FC ran his usual 'style' race, taking over on or about the second call."

If you saw FC take the lead at the second call, who was on the lead for the first mile-and-a-quarter? In races at 12f and longer, the 2nd call is 10f from the start.

Take an Official Result Chart with you, and close the door to the quiet room.

[Suff]

Originally posted by Bruddah
you wouldn't be allowed on the backside of any race track. The only backside you know anything about is where your brain resides.




I've read his Posts. You may have a gripe with Vet Scratch, but it can't be about his lack of Game Knowledge. He seems fit in that area. Never met the man, Don't know him, never talked to him. He seems Like a Bright Horseplayer to me.


Next opinion.

Horse players on the WHOLE are self Taught. Your at the Window all alone. Just you and your money. No one, or should I say Very FEW, Have a Total Command of the game. Inside all great Horseplayers is a Fear that there are Portion's of the game they need more Knowledge in.

Horses, Jockeys, Connections, Breeding, Class, Distance, Circuits, Medication and other Health Related issues, et al.....

Takes a Looong looong time to have a command of all these areas. I, have a hard time telling a horses Fitness in the paddock, I'm terrible at Physical handicapping. But I'm pretty Good at Form Handicapping.


After Going to the track for 20+ years, usually with a group. The first thing that Happens when Horseplayers have an arguement, is they attack each others knowledge of the game. I've done it and I've seen it done.

Probably will never change so why comment further.

[VetScratch]

No sweat Sufferindowns, Bruddah is green but fun to work with. He just needs a little more schooling at the gate!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bruddah:

Assuming that you heeded my earlier advice, the next time a DRF chart caller stops by the track kitchen for coffee, ask him what have always been considered to be the official points of call for the Triple Crown distances. For a Good Ole Boy like you, he will probably be glad to oblige you by jotting down these figures on a paper napkin (and he might even favor you with his autograph).

DIST___START_1ST-CALL_2ND-CALL_STRETCH_ FINISH
1-3/16___1/4____1/2_______3/4______str______fin
_1-1/4___1/4____1/2______ mile______str______fin
_1-1/2___1/4____1/2_____1-1/4______ str______fin

These are the points of call that provide the best historical yardsticks for comparing Triple Crown races.

Most sober players think they saw FC set the pace for at least 8f before EM collared him. Are you running your tapes backwards?

BTW, how do you like your new hours? Do you work with any work-release-program cuties that get ferried to and from the track in a prison bus? The Good Ole Boys in the Florida kitchens used to set some fast break-time-fractions with those gals!

Best Regards, keep your apron tied and your mind open!

[Suff]

see.

[PaceAdvantage]

VetScratch and others of his ilk....

What's the thrill in trying to seem super-witty 100% of the time??

"Most sober players"......"Are you running your tapes backwards?"....."Do you work with any work-release-program cuties that get ferried to and from the track in a prison bus? "...."keep your apron tied and your mind open"


What's the point?


Just curious...


==PA

[Observer]

Originally posted by VetScratch
48 program change scratches in 13 races!!!

What a joke!!!

First of all, you had fields that were over-filled with a handful of Also Eligibles in many of the races.

Second, I don't think anyone could have imagined all the rain that fell that afternoon, which no doubt led to many more scratches than there would have been under fast/firm conditions.

[VetScratch]

PA:

I have to admit going overboard on Bruddah.

I think maybe cabin fever is bringing out a cruel streak in me. Had to take disability retirement, can't get out very often anymore, and have too much time on my hands.

Just so you know, back in the 80's, one of my grooms did get ruled off for messing with a prison gal in the track kitchen, and they tacked some extra time on her sentence too!

I will leave Bruddah alone in the future. You have a nice board here.

[VetScratch]

Hi Observer,

In my newfound spirit of conciliation, I wish I had said what a joke and what a tragedy!

Do horseplayers really want to handicap fourteen or sixteen horses when they know only ten or twelve will start? Tracks like BEL, AQU, and GP are catering to horsemen instead of customers.

The weather was a tragedy because Triple Crown days are racing's best opportunity to attract new enthusiasts. However, if the jockeys will ride, too many tracks routinely tolerate plenty of program scratches in both good and bad weather. Illness, injury, and pre-race mishaps should excuse a horse from a race, but too many program scratches are tactical decisions.

I have always advocated reforming the preference system on a nationwide and standardized basis. Except for stakes/handicaps (which have a built-in monetary penalty), program scratches should be sidelined for a reasonable period before thay can get back on the preference ladder. A two-week preference penalty, or something similar, does not seem unreasonable for the sick and injured horses or for the tactical scratches.

Such a reform would make the following statements implicit:
(1) Sure, you can help fill a race, but if it goes you better be ready to run. At some tracks, jockey agents and trainers play this game without pretense about their motives.
(2) If you want an off-track, you had better enter a dirt race.
(3) If you will only run on the turf, wait for Kentucky Downs, consider the steeplechase circuit, or ship overseas.
(4) If you enter here, plan to ship here.

Rather than 48 program scratches in 13 races, cancel the card!

[keilan]

– PA’s thinks you’ve been a little irritable of late. So behave!

Also East Coast racing doesn’t post their changes and scratches until approximately 11/2 hours before post time. Really doesn’t allow enough time for players to make the necessary adjustments and formulate wagering strategies. Before I get to the track I like to have already decided whom my A & B horses are and now it’s down to watching the horses in the post parade and looking for wagering opportunities. That’s my routine, when I get out of sync; I’m just not comfortable the rest of the day.

Oh and still have time to grab a dog and a beer.

[Suff]

Originally posted by Observer
First of all, you had fields that were over-filled with a handful of Also Eligibles in many of the races.

Second, I don't think anyone could have imagined all the rain that fell that afternoon, which no doubt led to many more scratches than there would have been under fast/firm conditions.

I meant to 2nd that opinion. Most races were over subscribed and some had Mutiple MTO's. Scratching 2 AE's and 3 MTO's had no effect on a race.

Rider changes, shoe changes...Sex Changes (announced Gelding).

Consider the weather and all........Great Undercard. And when FunnyCide did his pre-race thing with Crowd,,,,Awesome Buildup to the race.

[VetScratch]

The question is, why AE's and MTO's in the first place?

On a nationwide basis, logistics play a role in determining what tracks get played.

I won't play AQU, BEL, or GP unless I stay home and wager via YouBet or BRISBet. That way, I can get all the late changes and re-refigure a value-odds-line based on the most probable pace scenarios. Even so, the AE's and MTO's are a nuisance that I try to avoid because the changes come too late while you are busy monitoring five to seven tracks to find two or three opportunities per day.

If I get a ride to the simulcast site (45 miles away), I will only play tracks that have a 48-hour scratch deadline, no AE's, and no formal MTO's. That way, the work I've done at home has a better chance of matching the card. The Texas and Illinois circuits cater to horseplayers instead of horsemen. I could say the same about HOL and SA if the fields weren't so pitifully short.

Under any conditions, 48 scratches at one track is unecessary!

[Suff]

Originally posted by VetScratch


Under any conditions, 48 scratches at one track is unecessary!

Again. Its 48 changes. Not scratches. Shoe changes, Jockey changes, Over weights....all count.

[Suff]

Originally posted by Sufferindowns
Again. Its 48 changes. Not scratches. Shoe changes, Jockey changes, Over weights....all count. .

And ask any Track Secratary at Virtually any track in North America if they have a Problem with Over subscribed races? They'll laugh. Try Undersubscribed. A track that can offer 12 Horse fields... with 2 AE's waiting to get in...and 3 MTO's to keep a Turf to Dirt Field in good shape as well is a Track with FULL BARNS and FULL FIELDS and NICE PRICES. Its a Big Handicapping world. I love over subscribed races and FULL Fields on a turf to dirt move

[VetScratch]

You are absolutely right.

In addition to 48 scratches, there were other changes.

The shoe board is important wherever that information is reliable, but jockey changes are like scratches. At tracks that impose a 48-hour scratch rule, you always have significantly fewer jockey changes because jockey agents must finish spinning against the same deadline. Thus, except for coupled entries, you have no riders names on multiple mounts.

Am I missing something? What is there to like about scratches and jockey changes?

[Suff]

A good reason for me now, is that You don't like them.

[VetScratch]

Sufferindowns:

Your statement rings with truth:
"And ask any Track Secratary at Virtually any track in North America if they have a Problem with Over subscribed races? They'll laugh. Try Undersubscribed."

Now ask trainers why this happens. In addition to shrinking annual foal populations, some tracks have actually invited this problem.

Investment decisions determine barn space at individual tracks, and local/regional barn shortages are accentuated when track owners fight internecine wars, as has happened on several occasions in Florida and Illinois.

Fields are also determined by who applies, who gets invited, who shows up, and what they bring. A complex mix of condition book expectations, management policies, politics, cronyism, and clout determines who applies for stalls, who gets stalls, and what fills the stalls. AP used to be notorious for short fields and fashionable barns full of horses in training. The elite outfits were taking advantage of their preferential treatment by the owner to use his facility as a training track and rehabilitation center. To some extent this is bound to happen everywhere, but some tracks are smart enough to give stall preference to barns that come to run, and to statistically monitor this factor from year to year.

Oaklawn has a relatively small backside, no neighboring tracks, and is the only oval in Arkansas. The state breeding program is tiny by KY, FL, CA, or NY standards, but it is intelligently promoted (only Arkie-breds earn breeder money when they win out of state). For many years, OP was a simulcast favorite because they did an intelligent job of filling their stalls. Despite recent Texas competion and the resurgence of FG, they continue to do a better than average job of filling fields.

The purses and breeding programs in both NY and CA should certainly attract full fields. HOL and SA obviously do not prioritize offering full fields. At BEL and AQU, the fields are often oversubscribed, but why is this an excuse for policies that invite so many program changes? BEL and AQU managed like Lonestar would be a simulcast players dream come true.

[PaceAdvantage]

I would just like to say that all the scratches and changes on Belmont Stakes day forced me to not even wager on half the card, since I arrived at the track early and did not bring a laptop with me.....

That, plus the rain, plus FC losing the crown made it one heck of a day to forget!!

[Suff]

Left it alone yesterday.......Not going to today.

How can you be forced to pass. Electing to pass is one thing, But I cannot for the life of me understand these Laptop Guys. Before you went to Laptop Handicapping you used a Racing Form no? If you leave your laptop at Home or if you get it stolen at the track.........Your dead in the water? I know someone can CHOOSE to not wager because they PREFER to use thier software Programs........ But to be FORCED to pass Because you don't have a Laptop is odd to me. One thought comes to mind.

Read the Racing Form. Is that a whacky idea?

Few Guys going on The Spa Trip seemed very concerned about Telephone acccess right away. I was Thinking.....Geez You can't use a racing form for one or two days until we get it worked out?


Forget if PC handicapping is bettter than Manual Handicapping. Even If I concede it is. For One afternoon using the racing form is out of the question?

I'd like to have a contest. 3 Manual Cappers vs 3 PC cappers. 4 contests over 18 months. Each structured a Little different. My feeling is the results will be typical with no one system whooping the other.

I have no axe to grind with PC cappers. Its just your not the first guy that I seen that is addicted to PC capping,,,,and if you can't do it, your out of the boat without a Lifevest?

Handicapping races using the DRF, treats me fairly well.


Please don't get hung up on "the best method". I'll concede PC capping is. But to be so fixated on it that a Dead Battery takes you completely out of the game......I know I should'nt say this.....But thats wrong.

Should'nt all Horseplayers at least have the Basic ability to Handicapp off Past Performances?

[JustRalph]

From Jay Cronley

http://espn.go.com/horse/columns/misc/1567096.html
Thursday, June 12
It's only good Form

By Jay Cronley
When last I went to the races, which was two days ago, having taken a few days off to try to heal from the sight of Funny Cide being taken toward the deep water, allegedly costing me what should have been a simple Exacta, I was in line behind a man who bought his way into the track, bought a program, and bought a private seat at a television screen.

This person was well dressed and groomed and had what appeared to be true gold on his ring finger and wrist.

He ordered a beer and a sandwich and set about finding something to bet. I sat a couple of seats over and watched as he gave the day's racing program a good going over, making notes in the margin and on a tablet. When he did make some bets after about half an hour later, he did so with a number of twenty-dollar bills.

What's missing?

The Racing Form.

The Racing Form is a publication made of newsprint, past performances of the entries being the key ingredient.

Its curb appeal is reminiscent of the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal. Tradition is not worth scrapping solely for flash and graphics, a four-column picture of a horse's nostril where yesterday's workouts used to be.

The Form has been tweaked now and again so that it doesn't look like the legal news, row after row of gray matter.

The writing, once crotchety, is now frequently done by people who can turn a phrase as well as a profit.

Selections are made be the best of the local rail and box birds. Another feature specific to the publication is a full log of the Beyer Speed Figures, a set of numbers aimed at placing thoroughbreds everywhere in the same virtual horse race and rating their abilities. These beautiful Beyers take into consideration all matters worth thrusting but few things human and horsy, such as backaches, knee aches, sprains, hangovers and stupidity.

Individual analysis is still required when dealing with Beyer speed figures, same as is the case with post positions, track conditions and trouble lines.

Please solve these current Beyer numbers: 40, 40, 40, 75.

It's simple.

The horse does one of two things, right?

Race-day programs used to contain the bare essentials, weight, breeding and the morning line.

Anymore, programs compete with the Racing Form. A track will buy a service that throws together some bars and graphs and picks winners based on each of the elementary elements, speed, cash won, class and the like. In some programs, five or six past performance lines are included for each horse in a particular field.

Computer picks also compete with the Form, taking the past performances and spinning the material in a particular direction.

In looking around the simulcast room on this particular day, I would guess that fewer than half of those in attendance had Racing Forms.

Some feel that buying one of the sophisticated programs and a Form is repetitive.

Some think that anything that won't fit in a tee shirt pocket and is bigger than a palm pilot is more trouble than it's worth.

I don't know anybody who works at the Racing Form, have never gotten a thing from the company free of charge.

But I love the Form for exactly what it is, excess pages flying all around in a hectic moment, something of substance to stare at in disbelief after you got robbed at the wire, newsprint seeming like greasepaint on Broadway, a sign of tradition going strong.

I would no sooner go to the horse races without a Form than I would a baseball yard without a cap, a football game without a credit card, a basketball game without popcorn.

You walk around the horse races with nothing but a program, here's what's taped on your back.

Sucker.

[PaceAdvantage]

OK, so you don't like the word forced??? LOL

How about this:

I've been handicapping this way since about 1989....I went to the track early knowing I would not be able to handle a lot of late scratches, if they should occur.

They did occur, and I did not have a way to re-adjust my odds-lines due to the late scratches, and therefore did not have accurate odds-lines to work with. Therefore, I did not bet....


Happy Now?? ;)


==PA

[cj]

PA,

Piece of advice I picked up from the Fierro book. He does not readjust his line for scratches. Just handicap the race and assume everyone is running. If a few are scratched, and a horse is still an overlay on your line, bet him. He is certainly no less of an overlay with fewer contenders. It has worked pretty good for me. I do still skip those off the turfer races though. I also ignore seemingly good performances that occurred in an off the turfer.

CJ

[keilan]

– I think that is generally good advice because a lot of the time non-contenders appear to get scratched. But in the cases of a strong E horse being scratched late I recommend that a player revisit the other E horse/s because they may now be advantaged.

I know I have been strung that way in the past, now I watch for that scenario.

[VetScratch]

With the obvious implication of "Pace Advantage," I would imagine pace scenarios have a good deal to do with how PA formulates his odds line.

Fierro's advice would have him ignoring scratches that may drastically alter his value odds. Does Fierro ignore pace?

[cj]

He doesn't go into his methods of contender selection too much. He stated something like this...if an E horse (frontrunner) that is scratched isn't among your contenders, he probably would have had little impact on the race. I find this is true nearly every time. If he has ability, he would be among your contenders. If a horse among your contenders is scratched and you don't adjust your line, it can't hurt you. Say you make the following line:

Horse A: 2-1
Horse B: 5-2
Horse C: 7-2
Horse D: 9-2

Horse B becomes a late scratch. You could now re-adjust your line and lower the odds on the other 3, but there's a good chance you are now trying to manufacture a bet rather than just letting one happen. If, for instance, horse C goes off at 9-2, you can be very confident you are getting an overlay with B not in the field.

CJ

[Suff]

Originally posted by PaceAdvantage


How about this:

I've been handicapping this way since about 1989....I went to the track early knowing I would not be able to handle a lot of late scratches, if they should occur.

They did occur, and I did not have a way to re-adjust my odds-lines due to the late scratches, and therefore did not have accurate odds-lines to work with. Therefore, I did not bet....


Happy Now?? ;)


==PA

I will bring this up at the next Board meeting and see if it is acceptable. Sounds Fishy, but they'll probably buy it. Your OK for now.

[fmazur]

Suff.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I'd like to have a contest. 3 Manual Cappers vs 3 PC cappers. 4 contests over 18 months. Each structured a Little different. My feeling is the results will be typical with no one system whooping the other
__________________________________________________ _

I would like to see this happen. My money would be on the Manual Cappers. I have and continue, on occasion to use various softwares, but still rely on the DRF for any serious plays. I never could have complete confidence in a machine selection. They are good for narrowing down the field, but that is all.

[BillW]

Originally posted by fmazur
Suff.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I'd like to have a contest. 3 Manual Cappers vs 3 PC cappers. 4 contests over 18 months. Each structured a Little different. My feeling is the results will be typical with no one system whooping the other
__________________________________________________ _

I would like to see this happen. My money would be on the Manual Cappers. I have and continue, on occasion to use various softwares, but still rely on the DRF for any serious plays. I never could have complete confidence in a machine selection. They are good for narrowing down the field, but that is all.

What is the definition of a PC capper ?... I use a PC to download and view the form (when I don't print it out).

Bill

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by BillW
What is the definition of a PC capper ?... I use a PC to download and view the form (when I don't print it out). Bill

Good ? Bill. I try like hell to handicap the program without the computer, then run the program. Unless I am in a hurry, it works out great. I do always run the program though. I also build my form, and at least the selectable items out of Equisim....but I still look at other data if it's available. I would say I fit in both categories. I have carried my printouts to the track with me (no laptop) and still scored some decent winners (last week at Hollywood) but all in all, I want the laptop with me. But, I have attended without any stuff produced at home and felt ok using the DRF I purchased at the track, or in my case a race book in Vegas. I think if you can do both you are taking advantage of all available resources.

[Suff]

Originally posted by BillW
What is the definition of a PC capper ?... I use a PC to download and view the form (when I don't print it out).

Bill

Lets start at the High end. So as not to Lump anyone that uses a Computer for anything is a PC capper.


If you can Download some data for 5 tracks. Hit a few Keystrokes and your "Plays" for the day are selected.

There are no "Races" in this Handicappers life. Only Selections and Results. They don't try, and even if they did, they can't watch half the races they bet on. If you asked them what distance the race was, they'd have to check the program. They're not into the details (anymore), They only concern themselves with Money in and Money out. Their System (sound or otherwise) has proven to them one or both things.

1. They win/lose the same as Manual Handicapping so it removes the hassle and time and work for them. Good reason.

2. They make more money with it. Great Reason.

I don't prefer PC handicapping, but there's two reasons I would never argue with. I still get a JOLT from nailing them at a price with my three handicapping tools.

1. My Brain
2. My Balls
3. My Wallet.

[BillW]

Suff,

I think we're on the same page. Those that let the computer make their picks for them vs. those who use it as an organizing tool to suplement their capping. For "picks" I don't trust my computer any further than I can throw it (and I am writing the software :))


JustRalph,

I also derive things w/ the PC in addition to viewing/printing the PP's. For instance, what in hell does the DRF's trainer info mean??? It's nice to have a lot better picture (different circuits/tracks/time periods etc.). Electronic PP's also save me a 150 mile round trip to the nearest distributor.

Back to MNR, later,

Bill

[Speed Figure]

One thing i will say is this, When i'm using the jz program the picks are MY PICKS. All the factors that are used are "MY FACTORS" They are the things i like to use when i'm handicapping. All the winner's come from ME and all the bad picks come from ME.

The computer is doing nothing but making it faster!:p

[PaceAdvantage]

I have an interesing dilemma at times running this place, and this is a perfect example of what can happen....

This thread recently drifted completely off topic from the original title (Belmont Post Mortem).

What should I do in a case like this? My only options are to close the post or let the drift continue.....and then have people complain that they clicked on a topic and more than half of what they skimmed over wasn't related to the topic title....

Or, perhaps a gentle reminder that if you wish to continue the current line of thinking, create a new thread???

Of course, by posting this very reply, I am taking this thread in yet another completely different direction, which some might see as ironic in itself......


==PA

[Suff]

Point taken.

This appeared a dying thread and it went off in a little thing between a 1/2 dozen guys or so. Classified as 6 guys off in a corner at the track having a conversation. Probably was going to fizzle out today.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Sufferindowns
If you can Download some data for 5 tracks. Hit a few Keystrokes and your "Plays" for the day are selected.
There are no "Races" in this Handicappers life. Only Selections and Results. They don't try, and even if they did, they can't watch half the races they bet on.

1. My Brain
2. My Balls
3. My Wallet.

Suff....if that guy exists in this game......he is one boring dude.
I hope he is putting tons of money in the pools too.....

Those Three items above are damn Poetic! and right on the money!

[Richard]

CORRECTION!!!:
I stated in an earlier posting on this thread that no longshot Derby winner ever won the Triple Crown.It turns out that ASSAULT(1946)won the 1946 KD at closing odds of 8.2 to 1.I apologize for my previous inaccuracy.
Richard