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View Full Version : Is Steve Crist correct about the blatant bias


Charlie D
11-14-2009, 05:12 PM
This is nothing more than sanctioned bias against American horses and dirt racing, with no foundation in form or fairness. Granted, it has always been a difficult task to compare the world's best grass and dirt horses, and the unnecessary introduction of a third type of racing, over synthetic surfaces, has only clouded things further.




http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=108924&subs=0&arc=0

tzipi
11-14-2009, 05:33 PM
http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=108924&subs=0&arc=0

Well when strict turf horses are entered in "dirt" stakes races now and winning them,it surely clouds it.

Show Me the Wire
11-14-2009, 05:51 PM
Well when strict turf horses are entered in "dirt" stakes races now and winning them,it surely clouds it.


Correct me if I am wrong, but condition books classify races to be run on maintrack or turf courses and not specifically dirt.

Overlay
11-14-2009, 08:24 PM
Correct me if I am wrong, but condition books classify races to be run on maintrack or turf courses and not specifically dirt.

I believe that's why tzipi put "dirt" in quotation marks. Prior to all-weather surfaces (by whatever name they are called), when people spoke of "main track" races, they could be referring only to "natural" dirt. Now, however, the "main track" designation has become clouded by a variety of different types of surfaces that may have a similar appearance, and that may have been intended to have the same characteristics, but that have turned out to have decidedly different, surface-specific effects on the outcomes of races.

bisket
11-14-2009, 09:29 PM
i think the most hilarious thing in that article is that courageous cat is placed higher than quality and mind that bird. which incidentally i agree with. he is faster, but don't run that by our famed speed fig makers :lol: they rated him as an allowance horse.

gm10
11-15-2009, 04:03 AM
There is definitely a Euro bias in the rankings.

In general, I believe some of that is justified. European horses have become better and stronger than the American counterparts during the Lasix era. After having visited quite a few American tracks, I can also say that the general quality of horses, tracks, crowds, of horse racing overall, is higher in Europe.

BUT ... this year it is indeed a bit blatant. To put Sea The Stars so far in front of the others is, I suppose, inevitable, although there must be some nagging doubts after watching Rip, MCM, Delegator perform so poorly in the BC.

Zenyatta beat Rip by much further than STS did. Rachel Alexandra has run VERY fast times this year. I think the rankings for this year are a bit of a joke.

Robert Fischer
11-15-2009, 05:08 AM
Timeform (lnternational Federation or whoever) is limited and so is Crist.
Even though Crist wrote this damn piece he has a lot of flaws in it.

fmolf
11-15-2009, 09:33 AM
this is exactly what the breeders cup wants.Euro horses entered in the poly races equates to more fees from preentered and nominated horses.It means more money from europe in the betting pools.They really do not care about the bias favoring the euros they created it on purpose.Thank god the bc is at a good old fashion bastion of american racing next year.Hopefully belmont in 2011.

Steve R
11-15-2009, 09:58 AM
There is definitely a Euro bias in the rankings.

In general, I believe some of that is justified. European horses have become better and stronger than the American counterparts during the Lasix era. After having visited quite a few American tracks, I can also say that the general quality of horses, tracks, crowds, of horse racing overall, is higher in Europe.

BUT ... this year it is indeed a bit blatant. To put Sea The Stars so far in front of the others is, I suppose, inevitable, although there must be some nagging doubts after watching Rip, MCM, Delegator perform so poorly in the BC.

Zenyatta beat Rip by much further than STS did. Rachel Alexandra has run VERY fast times this year. I think the rankings for this year are a bit of a joke.
Do you really believe your assertion re Zenyatta, Rip Van Winkle and Sea The Stars? Do you assume that because some horses make the transition from turf to an AWS that all horses make successful surface transitions? If you do, then maybe we should fault Zenyatta's connections for not trying her in the Arc de Triomphe. It would have been a better choice than the rerun of her previous races that we saw in the Lady's Secret. The races were run just six days apart. It was doable. And although Americans may have a hard time dealing with the reality, the Arc is still the single most prestigious race in the world and with far more international representation than the BC Classic has ever had or likely ever will have. Of course, if she had gone, her connections should have been applauded for their sportsmanship. OTOH, had she finished up the course at Longchamps, how would you be ranking her today? If you are going to use Rip Van Winkle's aborted atempt in the BC Classic as a yardstick, you should thank the Lord above Zenyatta didn't make the trip to Paris.

LottaKash
11-15-2009, 10:25 AM
If you are going to use Rip Van Winkle's aborted atempt in the BC Classic as a yardstick, you should thank the Lord above Zenyatta didn't make the trip to Paris.

I imagine that the connections felt that they didn't have to make the trip across the pond, as all they would have to do is just wait until Nov to wrap up "Horse of the Century"...:rolleyes: "Turf or no Turf", and 1-race ought to prove that....

best,

tzipi
11-15-2009, 12:11 PM
Correct me if I am wrong, but condition books classify races to be run on maintrack or turf courses and not specifically dirt.

Yes,as someone already said above,that's why I put dirt in quotation marks.

cj
11-15-2009, 12:37 PM
Correct me if I am wrong, but condition books classify races to be run on maintrack or turf courses and not specifically dirt.

They also designate between inner turf and main turf, and inner dirt and main track. It doesn't mean the surfaces are not the same.

Show Me the Wire
11-15-2009, 12:58 PM
They also designate between inner turf and main turf, and inner dirt and main track. It doesn't mean the surfaces are not the same.

I keep on saying what I say because dirt is not dirt, just like Nearco states in another thread. Main track is the proper terminology, there are no races for the dirt, even in quotation marks. The better way to think about it is the main track surface is a varying composite dirt like substance.

A dinstinction but a an important distinction. If the distinction did not exist no allegedly "dirt" horse, would have an excuse not to take to any "dirt" track surface.

The best solution would be to have uniform surfaces, all containing the same compounds and mix with standardized maintenance and then we all can agree on the definition of dirt and dirt horse.

46zilzal
11-15-2009, 01:06 PM
There is definitely a Euro bias in the rankings.

In general, I believe some of that is justified. European horses have become better and stronger than the American counterparts during the Lasix era. After having visited quite a few American tracks, I can also say that the general quality of horses, tracks, crowds, of horse racing overall, is higher in Europe.



This is going to become MORE and MORE obvious as the next 15 years will show


The tradition there is locked in. They are not destroying the sport with drugs and over-racing the animals.

Steve R
11-15-2009, 01:48 PM
This is going to become MORE and MORE obvious as the next 15 years will show


The tradition there is locked in. They are not destroying the sport with drugs and over-racing the animals.
Amen, brother, to the first sentence and to the drug reference in the second. The over-racing part is not obvious to me because I don't know how to define it. Scanning the BC pps, I noticed that the Euro Juvenile colts raced much more this year than the Americans: Alfred Nobel, 8 starts; Beethoven, 11 starts, Radiohead, 7 starts, Vale of York, 6 starts. Only one American colt had as many as 6. The most raced colts from the Juvenile Turf were King Ledley and Buzzword with 9 and 8 starts, respectively, this year. Rip Van Winkle had 9 starts this year, second only to Richard's Kid's 11 in the Classic. Overall, I couldn't detect that much difference.

gm10
11-15-2009, 01:49 PM
Do you really believe your assertion re Zenyatta, Rip Van Winkle and Sea The Stars? Do you assume that because some horses make the transition from turf to an AWS that all horses make successful surface transitions? If you do, then maybe we should fault Zenyatta's connections for not trying her in the Arc de Triomphe. It would have been a better choice than the rerun of her previous races that we saw in the Lady's Secret. The races were run just six days apart. It was doable. And although Americans may have a hard time dealing with the reality, the Arc is still the single most prestigious race in the world and with far more international representation than the BC Classic has ever had or likely ever will have. Of course, if she had gone, her connections should have been applauded for their sportsmanship. OTOH, had she finished up the course at Longchamps, how would you be ranking her today? If you are going to use Rip Van Winkle's aborted atempt in the BC Classic as a yardstick, you should thank the Lord above Zenyatta didn't make the trip to Paris.

Maybe she would have won, who can say?

The only horse who did well at the BC was Conduit, and I didn't think he was ultra-impressive either. Maybe MC, Delegator, Rip didn't like the AW, you seem to be 100% sure - good on you. Dar Re Mi coldn't get passed Presious Passion, a horse who does not do that well when facing proper G1 horses (even in America).

And on topic, those ratings are very biased. How on earth can you put Cavalryman and Fame and Glory above Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta. It's embarrassing. Having one decent race against Sea The Stars is NOT ENOUGH.

twindouble
11-15-2009, 01:58 PM
I keep on saying what I say because dirt is not dirt, just like Nearco states in another thread. Main track is the proper terminology, there are no races for the dirt, even in quotation marks. The better way to think about it is the main track surface is a varying composite dirt like substance.

A dinstinction but a an important distinction. If the distinction did not exist no allegedly "dirt" horse, would have an excuse not to take to any "dirt" track surface.

The best solution would be to have uniform surfaces, all containing the same compounds and mix with standardized maintenance and then we all can agree on the definition of dirt and dirt horse.

Handicapping is all about dealing with the many variables that racing offers up. I doubt that it will ever be clean cut, "standardized" and homogenized as some would like it to be.

Steve R
11-15-2009, 02:55 PM
Maybe she would have won, who can say?

The only horse who did well at the BC was Conduit, and I didn't think he was ultra-impressive either. Maybe MC, Delegator, Rip didn't like the AW, you seem to be 100% sure - good on you. Dar Re Mi coldn't get passed Presious Passion, a horse who does not do that well when facing proper G1 horses (even in America).

And on topic, those ratings are very biased. How on earth can you put Cavalryman and Fame and Glory above Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta. It's embarrassing. Having one decent race against Sea The Stars is NOT ENOUGH.
I'm not sure where you are coming from with this. First, Presious Passion is a three-time G1 stakes winner, twice this year including a new course record at Monmouth. His three G1 wins going in were the most of any starter in the BC Turf and matched only by Conduit and Dar Re Mi. IOW, the horses with the most G1 wins ran 1-2-3.

When you say "the only horse who did well at the BC", I assume you mean of the European starters. Besides Conduit, there was Pounced, Vale of York, Midday, Goldikova and Man of Iron. I don't think that's a bad showing for horses that had traveled 6,000 miles to an alien climate and unfamiliar track configurations.

I also don't get your comment about about Conduit not being impressive. He was 10 lengths behind a free-running, multi-G1-winner that was loose on the lead and he ran him down despite that leader getting a last quarter mile in a hair over 24 flat after 6f in 1:09.1. Obviously you are not easily impressed.

Overall, I think your assessment of European form is simply wrong.

toussaud
11-15-2009, 03:06 PM
I believe the issue when dealing with the euro's, is not so much talent, but the style of racing.

People focus on who for instance, rip van winkle beat overseas and think well if he beat them he will kill these

but we have an entirely different STYLE of racing here that most horses just dont' take well to, as well as the sufrace. too much speed, versus jogging and outkicking someone for 2 furlongs.

by the time they get to the end of the race they've used their kick


what makes a filly like goldkiova so good is she has an unusually high cruising speed for an european filly. she can run with us THEN produce that kick.

gm10
11-16-2009, 07:15 AM
I'm not sure where you are coming from with this. First, Presious Passion is a three-time G1 stakes winner, twice this year including a new course record at Monmouth. His three G1 wins going in were the most of any starter in the BC Turf and matched only by Conduit and Dar Re Mi. IOW, the horses with the most G1 wins ran 1-2-3.

When you say "the only horse who did well at the BC", I assume you mean of the European starters. Besides Conduit, there was Pounced, Vale of York, Midday, Goldikova and Man of Iron. I don't think that's a bad showing for horses that had traveled 6,000 miles to an alien climate and unfamiliar track configurations.

I also don't get your comment about about Conduit not being impressive. He was 10 lengths behind a free-running, multi-G1-winner that was loose on the lead and he ran him down despite that leader getting a last quarter mile in a hair over 24 flat after 6f in 1:09.1. Obviously you are not easily impressed.

Overall, I think your assessment of European form is simply wrong.

You probably didn't realize that all the horses that I mentioned all had form against Sea The Stars. I obviously wasn't talking about the Euro's in general who had their best BC ever.

Presious Passion only wins when he is faced with horses who aren't truly G1 horses. Sadly, you get a lot of those in American G1 turf races. Let's have a look at what he beat in his G1 wins this year. Medici Code, Spring House, Lauro, Brass Hat, Banrock, Proudinsky. I think these have a combined total of 0 G1 wins this year. When he faces the likes of Gio Ponti and Conduit, the inevitable happens.

Steve R
11-16-2009, 08:47 AM
You probably didn't realize that all the horses that I mentioned all had form against Sea The Stars. I obviously wasn't talking about the Euro's in general who had their best BC ever.

Presious Passion only wins when he is faced with horses who aren't truly G1 horses. Sadly, you get a lot of those in American G1 turf races. Let's have a look at what he beat in his G1 wins this year. Medici Code, Spring House, Lauro, Brass Hat, Banrock, Proudinsky. I think these have a combined total of 0 G1 wins this year. When he faces the likes of Gio Ponti and Conduit, the inevitable happens.
The inevitable happens. He gets beaten a half length by Timeform's second highest weighted older horse in all of Europe. He stinks.

gm10
11-16-2009, 08:57 AM
The inevitable happens. He gets beaten a half length by Timeform's second highest weighted older horse in all of Europe. He stinks.

He gets beaten. That's what usually happens when G2 horses meet G1 horses.

Charlie D
11-16-2009, 09:07 AM
He gets beaten. That's what usually happens when G2 horses meet G1 horses.


Yep, same thing as what happened in Arc, when Conduit and Dar Re Mi lined up and when Conduit lined up in Eclipse.

gm10
11-16-2009, 09:10 AM
Yep, same thing as what happened in Arc, when Conduit and Dar Re Mi lined up and when Conduit lined up in Eclipse.

I don't get what you mean. Conduit can still get beaten by G1 horses.

Charlie D
11-16-2009, 09:23 AM
I don't get what you mean. Conduit can still get beaten by G1 horses.



Yes, he can and that is becuse he is not really a G1 ability horse. He is just below that as his form shows, just like Precious Pattern and that is why Precious Pattern and Conduit finished so close together in Turf.

gm10
11-16-2009, 09:29 AM
Yes, he can and that is becuse he is not really a G1 ability horse. He is just below that as his form shows, just like Precious Pattern and that is why Precious Pattern and Conduit finished so close together in Turf.

Maybe. I like him but he certainly isn't the strongest G1 if he is one.

Charlie D
11-16-2009, 09:35 AM
I like him too, but it does not alter the fact that in races like the Arc, Classic he would or should not be considered as win material unless it was a weak renewal.

Bobzilla
11-16-2009, 09:35 AM
He gets beaten. That's what usually happens when G2 horses meet G1 horses.


There is no shame in losing a 12f race by half a length to one of the world's premier runners. It was going to require nothing less than one of the world's best that day to catch this guy. Fast course or not, it's not very often when we see an animal gear up into high cruise with fractions of 23, 45, 1:09 1/5, 1:34 2/5, etc. etc., in a mile and a half event while running well within himself and still have energy reserves remaining for when the real running starts. I could feel the lactic acid burning in my own legs just watching him fight in the stretch. In terms of a performance figure, speed figure adjusted for the race dynamics to truly reflect effort, I would have to think his effort was one of the highest during the two day festival. Though it may be fair to be skeptical of the quality of those he's defeated in his three G1 wins, this in no way should suggest that his own efforts were not of a G1 calibre. His brave second to Conduit should be proof enough that he is more than just a G2 performer, I would think.

gm10
11-16-2009, 09:44 AM
I like him too, but it does not alter the fact that in races like the Arc, Classic he would or should not be considered as win material unless it was a weak renewal.

Hey I had a win bet on him this year!!

gm10
11-16-2009, 09:45 AM
There is no shame in losing a 12f race by half a length to one of the world's premier runners. It was going to require nothing less than one of the world's best that day to catch this guy. Fast course or not, it's not very often when we see an animal gear up into high cruise with fractions of 23, 45, 1:09 1/5, 1:34 2/5, etc. etc., in a mile and a half event while running well within himself and still have energy reserves remaining for when the real running starts. I could feel the lactic acid burning in my own legs just watching him fight in the stretch. In terms of a performance figure, speed figure adjusted for the race dynamics to truly reflect effort, I would have to think his effort was one of the highest during the two day festival. Though it may be fair to be skeptical of the quality of those he's defeated in his three G1 wins, this in no way should suggest that his own efforts were not of a G1 calibre. His brave second to Conduit should be proof enough that he is more than just a G2 performer, I would think.

One and a half!

classhandicapper
11-16-2009, 06:40 PM
I tend to think European horses are superior to US horses on a relative basis.

I say that because the best European turf horses tend to outperform their US counterparts in the Breeder's Cup races on turf when you consider the number of horses they send. They do that despite running in the opposite direction and other disadvantages. When our best horses ship outside the US they typically get crushed. That's why we rarely even try it.

The comparison of turf horses to dirt horses gets a lot trickier, but if you look at the Breeder's Cup dirt races, even though their overall record is not great, the Euros have won or run impressively in a lot of our BC dirt races too. Look how poorly our dirt horses are doing in the synthetic races when faced with that kind of disadvantage.

I think the preponderance of evidence suggests that the Euros are simply "relatively" better. That is, their turf horses are better on turf than our dirt horses are on dirt.

Linny
11-17-2009, 01:33 PM
Horses like Sahkee and Giant's Causeway came here and ran lights out in defeat, stamping themselves as outstanding runners.
It ight be impossible to compare horses from different years but it's fair to say that European owners/trainers have, as a whole been far more likely to venture into our top class racing, even on unfamiliar surfaces.
It was considered odd that Jess Jackson wanted to test Curlin on grass, yet Aiden O'Brien a supertrainer, ships a barn load to the US every year for both dirt (or synthetic) and grass races in the BC. Other than Wesley Ward, name the last top US trainer to point an American based runner for a major European event. Our top grass horses get clobbered in Dubai on a course that is more like an American track than any other outside the US. (Technically, North America, because Canadian tracks are alot like ours.) Why?
Do our horses not ship well? Are our trainers to dependant on meds or other factors in training? Are they just bad horses? Is the trip too far?

Greyfox
11-17-2009, 02:55 PM
I tend to think European horses are superior to US horses on a relative basis.....

II think the preponderance of evidence suggests that the Euros are simply "relatively" better. That is, their turf horses are better on turf than our dirt horses are on dirt.

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: I agree. The preponderance of evidence also shows that these turf horses from Europe do well on both coasts, East or the West. Certainly the grass courses in the East are different than those in California.

hazzardm
11-17-2009, 03:00 PM
I think the preponderance of evidence suggests that the Euros are simply "relatively" better. That is, their turf horses are better on turf than our dirt horses are on dirt.

It would be very nice to see Summer Bird run a big one in the Japan Cup.

hazzardm
11-20-2009, 02:10 PM
It would be very nice to see Summer Bird run a big one in the Japan Cup.

If healthy and can pass the meds testing, he should crush.

http://blog.timesunion.com/horseracing/summer-bird-is-in-japan-trainer-ice-likes-zenyatta-for-hoy/3669/

46zilzal
11-20-2009, 02:12 PM
If healthy and can pass the meds testing, he should crush.

http://blog.timesunion.com/horseracing/summer-bird-is-in-japan-trainer-ice-likes-zenyatta-for-hoy/3669/without knowing the field you can say that?

hazzardm
11-20-2009, 02:14 PM
He is IMHO as good on dirt as any recent US horse, Curlin included.

ghostyapper
11-20-2009, 02:19 PM
He is IMHO as good on dirt as any recent US horse, Curlin included.

I like the horse a lot but he's not as good as Curlin was in the fall of his 3yo year. Curlin was an absolute monster.

gm10
11-20-2009, 03:49 PM
I like Summer Bird, but he's no superstar imo. He is the best of a weak generation.

cj
11-20-2009, 03:53 PM
As a figure guy, Summer Bird is pretty darn good and just developed late. Not a surprise considering he didn't even start until March. Curlin, however, only started about a month earlier and was a few lengths faster at the end of his 3yo season.

Cratos
11-20-2009, 10:45 PM
He is IMHO as good on dirt as any recent US horse, Curlin included.

To compare Summer Bird and Curlin as 3yos is laughable. In all due respect, Summer Bird had a good 3yo campaign and is a very good horse, but Curlin’s 3yo campaign is one for the ages in that he won from 7f to 1 ¼ miles and never missed a beat.

Also he ran some very good final times in major races with a 1:53.46 in the Preakness and 2:00.59 in the BC Classic being most notable.

And for all of the negative hoopla about Curlin’s alleged dismal performance in last year’s BC Classic, all he did was run a 1:59.72 final time to Raven’s Pass 1:59.27. This puts Curlin time wise 5.291 lengths ahead of Zenyatta, this year’s winner.

Summer Bird has never won at a sprint in his career and his fastest time was in losing to Rachel Alexander in the Haskell when he ran a respectable 1:48.21 to finish second.

I intentionally didn’t adjust any of the times with a Surface Speed Resistance Variant (SSRV) or a Daily Speed Track Variant (DSTV).

Robert Fischer
11-20-2009, 10:57 PM
curlin was a beast and also got to be on Asmussen's best program. He was at times one of the best horses(worldwide).

Summer Bird is just a grade 1 horse who can get a distance

PaceAdvantage
11-21-2009, 03:58 AM
To compare Summer Bird and Curlin as 3yos is laughable. In all due respect, Summer Bird had a good 3yo campaign and is a very good horse, but Curlin’s 3yo campaign is one for the ages in that he won from 7f to 1 ¼ miles and never missed a beat.Yeah...but he got beat by a girl....:p

Cratos
11-21-2009, 12:15 PM
Yeah...but he got beat by a girl....:p

So did Summer Bird and much more convincingly.

cj
11-21-2009, 12:52 PM
I intentionally didn’t adjust any of the times with a Surface Speed Resistance Variant (SSRV) or a Daily Speed Track Variant (DSTV).

Then why bother? Raw times mean very little in isolation in my opinion.

Cratos
11-21-2009, 08:58 PM
Then why bother? Raw times mean very little in isolation in my opinion.

I used descriptive statistics to describe the main features (final time) of the races’ argument in quantitative terms as oppose to using statistical inferences (variants) to make inferences by using the SSRV and DSTV.

The SSRV is use to give the influence of the track surface resistance to speed as calculated from its coefficient. The DSTV gives the influence of environmental conditions plus the SSRV.

If you disagree with this hypothesis; then please state why because logically they both illustrates sound reasoning.

cj
11-21-2009, 09:04 PM
I used descriptive statistics to describe the main features (final time) of the races’ argument in quantitative terms as oppose to using statistical inferences (variants) to make inferences by using the SSRV and DSTV.

The SSRV is use to give the influence of the track surface resistance to speed as calculated from its coefficient. The DSTV gives the influence of environmental conditions plus the SSRV.

If you disagree with this hypothesis; then please state why because logically they both illustrates sound reasoning.

I am a fairly well educated man but I have no idea what you are talking about. What I do know is that talking about raw times across different years is pure folly. Thus, any argument based on them is as likely wrong as it is right.

I do agree, as I stated before your post, Curlin was the better horse. Laughable, however, may be a bit harsh. At 12f, I would take Summer Bird every time. Curlin was clearly not as good beyond 10f.

Cratos
11-21-2009, 10:10 PM
I am a fairly well educated man but I have no idea what you are talking about. What I do know is that talking about raw times across different years is pure folly. Thus, any argument based on them is as likely wrong as it is right.

I do agree, as I stated before your post, Curlin was the better horse. Laughable, however, may be a bit harsh. At 12f, I would take Summer Bird every time. Curlin was clearly not as good beyond 10f.

I am not questioning your education or intelligence and neither of those have any place in this discussion.

What I was saying and will continue to say is that events are commonly evaluated for comparative analysis by just looking at the “raw data” as you have defined the times of the races

However if you want an astute and auspicious understanding of the event you might use inferences to strengthen your argument or conclusion.

To say that Summer Bird was better than Curlin at the 1 ½ distance is a palusible conclusion which borders on conjecture if you had only compared their Belmont Stake performances, but that snippit of data would be insufficient in my onpion.

Curlin ran at the 1 ¼ mile distance or furthuer 8 times during his 16 start career and with the exception of his last career start, the BC Classic, he never demonstrated that he was “going backwards” at the end of the 1 ¼ distance. Also with the exception of the KY Derby and the Belmont States, all of his times were around the 2:00 minute mark for the 1 ¼ mile distance.

Summer Bird on the other hand has run at the 1 ¼ mile distance or further in route races 5 times in his short career and winning at the 1 ½ mile distance, but in his other route races his times was pedestrian at best although he won the Travers and the JCGC at the 1 ¼ mile distance.

To say that Curlin wouldn’t be as good as Summer Bird at the 1 ½ mile distance is puzzling to me.

cj
11-22-2009, 12:52 AM
To say that Curlin wouldn’t be as good as Summer Bird at the 1 ½ mile distance is puzzling to me.

Curlin raced twice at greater than 10f, and both times lost to vastly inferior horses. That is what I draw my opinion from on the subject.

Robert Fischer
11-22-2009, 12:03 PM
those 2 races were tough to figure out

first the belmont - you had the hijinx into the first turn with Prado pushing out 7wide and then Gomez after initially choking Hard Spun inexplicably turned down a gaping whole on the rail and steers Hard Spun out 5wide to get behind CPWest and co - all 1st turn - and then there was a brief moment that Curlin could have gone thru on the rail with an adaptable move but didn't. And they crawled with Curlin boxed in. and Eventually the race was confined to a 2furlong closing kick contest with Rags to Riches and she clearly bested him. I thought Curlin could have won easily and significantly faster final time with a free run and an honest pace, but something we don't know.

Then the 12furlong turf - you had those 2 speed horses go out in a ridiculous pace that nobody respected, and Red Rocks sat in the absolutely perfect position, while Curlin got poor postion early, moved slightly prematurely and covered maybe 2lengths more ground than RR. It was either Curlin was sluggish and non-responsive at the start or Albarado had an embarrassingly lax ride. Either way Curlin didn't appear to relish the distance and he didn't put in a monster "curlin" effort to overcome the dumb ride.

Cratos
11-22-2009, 12:16 PM
Curlin raced twice at greater than 10f, and both times lost to vastly inferior horses. That is what I draw my opinion from on the subject.

You are correct, Curlin did run beyond the 1 ¼ distance twice in his career and lost both times, but what you failed to state is that one of those losses were the G1 Man O’War stakes on grass (which Summer Bird have yet to run on) and it was Curlin's first and only time running on grass.

Furthermore, according to the DRF in the G1 Man O’War stakes which Curlin lost to Red Rocks the 2006 BC Turf winner (no disappointment there) Curlin’s Man O’War final time was just two-fifths of a second slower than the average time for that distance at Belmont over the previous three years; not a bad effort for a first time grass starter in G1 stakes company.

However for you to state that Curlin lost his two races beyond 1 ¼ miles to “vastly inferior horses” redefines the phase creative thinking because it is well documented that Red Rocks with 6 turf wins from 19 tries with some coming at the Grade 1 and Group 1 stakes level was a damn good grass runner.

In the 2007 Belmont Stakes he didn’t face any Secretariats, but he didn’t face all Saravas in the race either. There was the very good filly, Rag to Riches who later was fell by injury and Hard Spun a very good speedster, but not a stamina-type.

But wasn’t the kernel of this questioning a comparison between Curlin and Summer Bird; and which horse was better?

To now talk of Curlin myopically is disingenuous and tangential to the subject matter and it makes you seem somewhat sycophant.

Steve R
11-22-2009, 12:34 PM
those 2 races were tough to figure out

first the belmont - you had the hijinx into the first turn with Prado pushing out 7wide and then Gomez after initially choking Hard Spun inexplicably turned down a gaping whole on the rail and steers Hard Spun out 5wide to get behind CPWest and co - all 1st turn - and then there was a brief moment that Curlin could have gone thru on the rail with an adaptable move but didn't. And they crawled with Curlin boxed in. and Eventually the race was confined to a 2furlong closing kick contest with Rags to Riches and she clearly bested him. I thought Curlin could have won easily and significantly faster final time with a free run and an honest pace, but something we don't know.

Then the 12furlong turf - you had those 2 speed horses go out in a ridiculous pace that nobody respected, and Red Rocks sat in the absolutely perfect position, while Curlin got poor postion early, moved slightly prematurely and covered maybe 2lengths more ground than RR. It was either Curlin was sluggish and non-responsive at the start or Albarado had an embarrassingly lax ride. Either way Curlin didn't appear to relish the distance and he didn't put in a monster "curlin" effort to overcome the dumb ride.
What exactly is a "monster 'curlin' effort"? Apart from his outstanding BC Classic in 2007, he never ran a really fast race in his life and he was beaten by horses that one would not have expected to beat him. After his 2008 DWC win over the weakest field by far in the race's history, his 4yo campaign was mediocre at best and hardly of HotY quality. Others have said it, and I concur...Curlin is the most overhyped runner in recent memory and hardly a "monster" of any sort regardless of how many excuses are fabricated to rationalize his weaker performances.

gm10
11-22-2009, 12:56 PM
What exactly is a "monster 'curlin' effort"? Apart from his outstanding BC Classic in 2007, he never ran a really fast race in his life and he was beaten by horses that one would not have expected to beat him. After his 2008 DWC win over the weakest field by far in the race's history, his 4yo campaign was mediocre at best and hardly of HotY quality. Others have said it, and I concur...Curlin is the most overhyped runner in recent memory and hardly a "monster" of any sort regardless of how many excuses are fabricated to rationalize his weaker performances.

Curlin was pretty fast by my calculations. His figures started going down after the Stephen Foster H, and he was a spent force by October. No surprise after such a campaign.

cj
11-22-2009, 01:32 PM
You are correct, Curlin did run beyond the 1 ¼ distance twice in his career and lost both times, but what you failed to state is that one of those losses were the G1 Man O’War stakes on grass (which Summer Bird have yet to run on) and it was Curlin's first and only time running on grass.

Furthermore, according to the DRF in the G1 Man O’War stakes which Curlin lost to Red Rocks the 2006 BC Turf winner (no disappointment there) Curlin’s Man O’War final time was just two-fifths of a second slower than the average time for that distance at Belmont over the previous three years; not a bad effort for a first time grass starter in G1 stakes company.

However for you to state that Curlin lost his two races beyond 1 ¼ miles to “vastly inferior horses” redefines the phase creative thinking because it is well documented that Red Rocks with 6 turf wins from 19 tries with some coming at the Grade 1 and Group 1 stakes level was a damn good grass runner.

In the 2007 Belmont Stakes he didn’t face any Secretariats, but he didn’t face all Saravas in the race either. There was the very good filly, Rag to Riches who later was fell by injury and Hard Spun a very good speedster, but not a stamina-type.

But wasn’t the kernel of this questioning a comparison between Curlin and Summer Bird; and which horse was better?

To now talk of Curlin myopically is disingenuous and tangential to the subject matter and it makes you seem somewhat sycophant.

At 12f, Rags to Riches was able to run Curlin down despite coming from much father behind a crawling pace. Curlin showed true weakness to me at that distance that day. It is also why I believe Summer Bird would beat him at 12f.

Thanks for your use of sycophant though. It is almost as funny as your posts.

Steve R
11-22-2009, 02:05 PM
Curlin was pretty fast by my calculations. His figures started going down after the Stephen Foster H, and he was a spent force by October. No surprise after such a campaign.
"Fast" is a relative term. Yes, he was a solid runner according to most figure makers (Beyer figures generally in the 105-115 range with the BC Classic an exception) but no better than a host of other leading 3yos and older horses we've seen in recent years, and he almost never came close to a 3-year best time at the distance on tracks with continuous records. It's the assertion by some that he was special and among the "greats", a term I think we all agree is tossed about rather loosely these days, that I reject. And I'm not sure about the reference to "such a campaign". A two-and-a half month layoff after the DWC was followed by five races over the next 4 1/2 months. Nothing unusual or overly taxiing for a high end older horse IMO. And apart from Einstein, primarily a turf star, the horses running 2nd and 3rd behind him in his main track wins were hardly stellar.

Cratos
11-22-2009, 02:18 PM
At 12f, Rags to Riches was able to run Curlin down despite coming from much father behind a crawling pace. Curlin showed true weakness to me at that distance that day. It is also why I believe Summer Bird would beat him at 12f.

Thanks for your use of sycophant though. It is almost as funny as your posts.

I am thrilled that you find my posts to be funny; I will try and keep the hilarity coming in future posts just for you.

gm10
11-22-2009, 02:32 PM
"Fast" is a relative term. Yes, he was a solid runner according to most figure makers (Beyer figures generally in the 105-115 range with the BC Classic an exception) but no better than a host of other leading 3yos and older horses we've seen in recent years, and he almost never came close to a 3-year best time at the distance on tracks with continuous records. It's the assertion by some that he was special and among the "greats", a term I think we all agree is tossed about rather loosely these days, that I reject. And I'm not sure about the reference to "such a campaign". A two-and-a half month layoff after the DWC was followed by five races over the next 4 1/2 months. Nothing unusual or overly taxiing for a high end older horse IMO. And apart from Einstein, primarily a turf star, the horses running 2nd and 3rd behind him in his main track wins were hardly stellar.

I agree that he wasn't all that stellar. He was very good on his day, though.

But ... I think he had a very tough campaign. It's not that he raced THAT often, but he stayed in training almost continuously from early 2007 to late 2008. He was a late developer, and was thrown in at the deep end in the spring of 2007. A lot of very good horses would not have kept going like he did for nearly 18 months.

Cratos
11-22-2009, 02:42 PM
At 12f, Rags to Riches was able to run Curlin down despite coming from much father behind a crawling pace. Curlin showed true weakness to me at that distance that day. It is also why I believe Summer Bird would beat him at 12f.

Thanks for your use of sycophant though. It is almost as funny as your posts.

Boy! RTR really did some running in the 2007 Belmont to catch and pass Curlin. RTR was 5th at the 1 mile marker in the race in a time of 1:40.50 seconds and Curlin was 4th at the 1 mile marker in the race in a time of 1:40.42 seconds. That is a difference of .08 seconds. RTR went ahead of Curlin between the 1 mile marker and the 1 ¼ mile marker of the race to get the lead by .02 seconds and the two finished the race that way.

If you can mathematically or statistically discern evidence that those minute differences gives you substantial credence to state that Curlin cannot get a 1 ½ mile distance without a plodder like Summer Bird passing him, go to the head of the class.

cj
11-22-2009, 02:53 PM
Boy! RTR really did some running in the 2007 Belmont to catch and pass Curlin. RTR was 5th at the 1 mile marker in the race in a time of 1:40.50 seconds and Curlin was 4th at the 1 mile marker in the race in a time of 1:40.42 seconds. That is a difference of .08 seconds. RTR went ahead of Curlin between the 1 mile marker and the 1 ¼ mile marker of the race to get the lead by .02 seconds and the two finished the race that way.

If you can mathematically or statistically discern evidence that those minute differences gives you substantial credence to state that Curlin cannot get a 1 ½ mile distance without a plodder like Summer Bird passing him, go to the head of the class.

Summer Bird is a plodder? Yeah, sure he is.

As to the Belmont, I didn't realize the race started at the mile marker. Curlin had a positional and ground saving edge, and still didn't win. We'll never really know if it was a one day thing or not, but he didn't run near his usual race and there is ZERO evidence he would actually like 12f.

Cratos
11-22-2009, 03:20 PM
Summer Bird is a plodder? Yeah, sure he is.

As to the Belmont, I didn't realize the race started at the mile marker. Curlin had a positional and ground saving edge, and still didn't win. We'll never really know if it was a one day thing or not, but he didn't run near his usual race and there is ZERO evidence he would actually like 12f.

Since Curlin has been retired and RTR is also retired we will never know the answer to your assertion “there is ZERO evidence he would actually like 12f.”

Although Summer Bird is still in training, the answer is further complicated because it is highly unlikely that he will ever run at the 1 ½ mile distance again during his career unless his connections put him on the turf.

gm10
11-22-2009, 04:15 PM
Summer Bird is a plodder? Yeah, sure he is.

As to the Belmont, I didn't realize the race started at the mile marker. Curlin had a positional and ground saving edge, and still didn't win. We'll never really know if it was a one day thing or not, but he didn't run near his usual race and there is ZERO evidence he would actually like 12f.

To me, Summer Bird is the ultimate high-quality plodder. All his races look the same. Behind the leaders early, but not too far, then some nice action about 4F from the wire, maintaining a lot of his speed in the last 2F while running fast but not exceptional late fractions. It depends on your definition of plodder of course, but to me a plodder is horse who shows constant ability during each part of his two turn races.

cj
11-22-2009, 04:20 PM
I have always seen a plodder considered as a horse with little to no early speed. I understand your definition, just semantics really. Most in the US would learn it the way I have, but no big deal. That is what I was basing it on.

ghostyapper
11-22-2009, 05:02 PM
What exactly is a "monster 'curlin' effort"? Apart from his outstanding BC Classic in 2007, he never ran a really fast race in his life and he was beaten by horses that one would not have expected to beat him. After his 2008 DWC win over the weakest field by far in the race's history, his 4yo campaign was mediocre at best and hardly of HotY quality. Others have said it, and I concur...Curlin is the most overhyped runner in recent memory and hardly a "monster" of any sort regardless of how many excuses are fabricated to rationalize his weaker performances.

So what exactly do you mean by never ran a "fast" race? What is the measurement? Your proprietary speed figures or actual raw times? Either way you are wrong.

His Preakness, JCGC (07), BC Classic (07), and DWC were all exceptional races. He won another 3 G1's in addition to those. There are so many runners in recent memory that were overhyped it's comical you would call him the most overhyped considering what he accomplished ON THE TRACK

ghostyapper
11-22-2009, 05:09 PM
At 12f, Rags to Riches was able to run Curlin down despite coming from much father behind a crawling pace. Curlin showed true weakness to me at that distance that day. It is also why I believe Summer Bird would beat him at 12f.

Thanks for your use of sycophant though. It is almost as funny as your posts.

10 furlongs might have been his best distance but I don't think 12 furlongs was a weakness for him. Remember that R2R caught Curlin as he was running his 3rd race in 5 weeks and he lost by a head. The 2 were running in stride the last furlong, she was not pulling away.

I think had they faced each other in the fall that year at 12 furlongs he would have won easily.

Linny
11-23-2009, 10:25 AM
Curlin was probably better at 10 than 12f and when he lost the Belmont, he did so to a horse, RTR, that (like Summer Bird) prefers 12 to 10f. Horse that prefer 12 to 10f are anomalies in today's world. Rags obviously loved 12f-she certainly was bred for it. Summer Bird also prefers 12 but as mentioned will never see it agin unless they try him on grass-which at this point makes no sense.
Curlin lost by ahead at 12f to a horse that arguably could have been a 12f specialist. It was hardly a disgrace, and had RTR not been hurt I think she'd have conirmed that the Belmont was not a freak. Had she been able I'd guess that she would have beatn Street Sense and the non entity that ran second in the Travers, and done so handily.

cj
11-23-2009, 10:28 AM
Curlin was probably better at 10 than 12f and when he lost the Belmont, he did so to a horse, RTR, that (like Summer Bird) prefers 12 to 10f. Horse that prefer 12 to 10f are anomalies in today's world. Rags obviously loved 12f-she certainly was bred for it. Summer Bird also prefers 12 but as mentioned will never see it agin unless they try him on grass-which at this point makes no sense.
Curlin lost by ahead at 12f to a horse that arguably could have been a 12f specialist. It was hardly a disgrace, and had RTR not been hurt I think she'd have conirmed that the Belmont was not a freak. Had she been able I'd guess that she would have beatn Street Sense and the non entity that ran second in the Travers, and done so handily.

I don't remember her ever running particularly fast, and beating Street Sense in the Travers with the very, very slow pace would have been a stretch.

bisket
11-23-2009, 02:13 PM
To me, Summer Bird is the ultimate high-quality plodder. All his races look the same. Behind the leaders early, but not too far, then some nice action about 4F from the wire, maintaining a lot of his speed in the last 2F while running fast but not exceptional late fractions. It depends on your definition of plodder of course, but to me a plodder is horse who shows constant ability during each part of his two turn races.
horses that run their races evenly basically make a good router. the only horse that can beat a horse like this is a horse that can run a route with 2 moves. the horses i just described is street sense and curlin. i think curlin runnning his third race in 5 weeks did hurt him against r2r. in curlin's and street sense's best efforts they both had 2 moves inside the race. the travers wasn't a top effort for street sense. he ran that race very evenly. this is a nafzger trademark. he doesn't like his runners to put forth big efforts race in and race. he plans his campagns around this. he was saving street sense for the classic in the travers.

hazzardm
11-23-2009, 02:44 PM
Summer Bird has never won at a sprint in his career and his fastest time was in losing to Rachel Alexander in the Haskell when he ran a respectable 1:48.21 to finish second.



Why in the world would Summer Bird sprint? :rolleyes:

gm10
11-23-2009, 03:07 PM
horses that run their races evenly basically make a good router

What gave you that idea??????

the only horse that can beat a horse like this is a horse that can run a route with 2 moves. the horses i just described is street sense and curlin. i think curlin runnning his third race in 5 weeks did hurt him against r2r. in curlin's and street sense's best efforts they both had 2 moves inside the race. the travers wasn't a top effort for street sense. he ran that race very evenly. this is a nafzger trademark. he doesn't like his runners to put forth big efforts race in and race. he plans his campagns around this. he was saving street sense for the classic in the travers.

Horses like Summer Bird are vulnerable to more than 'two moves' horses. When he meets classy individuals such as RA, Zenyatta or Gio Ponti, he will need a little luck with how the race is run. I don't think he is as good as Curlin was, either.

Cratos
11-23-2009, 03:10 PM
Why in the world would Summer Bird sprint? :rolleyes:

You obviously do not understand what my post was about and therefore I will kindly inform you. My post response was a comparison between Curlin and Summer Bird. Curlin when he broke his maiden sprinted in a 7f and won. Summer Bird never sprinted thus far in his career.

Why would that tidbit be important? It was to show that Curlin although proficient at the route had speed to win at the sprint; and did so in a splendid time of 1:22.20 seconds winning by 12 ¾ lengths.

hazzardm
11-23-2009, 03:25 PM
Why would that tidbit be important? It was to show that Curlin although proficient at the route had speed to win at the sprint; and did so in a splendid time of 1:22.20 seconds winning by 12 ¾ lengths.

A GP maiden race seems somewhat irrelevant when talking multiple G1 route horses.

Steve R
11-23-2009, 05:44 PM
So what exactly do you mean by never ran a "fast" race? What is the measurement? Your proprietary speed figures or actual raw times? Either way you are wrong.

His Preakness, JCGC (07), BC Classic (07), and DWC were all exceptional races. He won another 3 G1's in addition to those. There are so many runners in recent memory that were overhyped it's comical you would call him the most overhyped considering what he accomplished ON THE TRACK
I'm wrong. Beyer is wrong. The Racing Post is wrong. Everybody who actually analyzes races from a technical perspective is wrong. Only you are right, so why even bother replying to posts contradicting your position. It's a waste of your time, isn't it?

bisket
11-23-2009, 06:16 PM
You obviously do not understand what my post was about and therefore I will kindly inform you. My post response was a comparison between Curlin and Summer Bird. Curlin when he broke his maiden sprinted in a 7f and won. Summer Bird never sprinted thus far in his career.

Why would that tidbit be important? It was to show that Curlin although proficient at the route had speed to win at the sprint; and did so in a splendid time of 1:22.20 seconds winning by 12 ¾ lengths.
when a horse shows speed like that in a sprint and then proves he can run a route. that horse is special. no doubt. this means a speed horse with class won't be able to beat him. sorta like lawyer ron.

Seabiscuit@AR
11-23-2009, 06:40 PM
Rags To Riches beat Curlin in the Belmont because at the time she was going better than him, simple as that. Rags beats him over 10f, 12f, 14f it would not have mattered

Curlin's form at the time was 3rd in the Ky Derby, 1st in the Preakness then 2nd in the Belmont then he lost his race following the Belmont. So that is only 1 win in 4 starts in the races surrounding the Belmont.

Curlin was a good horse but not a great horse, he suffered too many defeats to be considered great

Robert Fischer
11-23-2009, 06:53 PM
Curlin showed brilliant speed in the maiden? win @ gp?

he showed he was going to have grade 1 route talent in one of those preps (where was it oaklawn/FG/orsomething?)

then the DERBY, and i'm thinking going in that Street Sense and Hard Spun are clearly best, but if you really look at the replay you have to wonder if Albarado had kept his nose to Sedgefields(pink rail) ass and sat in that wonderful pocket if he wouldn't have won or been right there in spite of the trip street sense got. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sS6q36Xqcps

the BELMONT was a dam near brilliant final quarter. Yes Rags to Riches clearly bested him, but they both ran near brillian final quarters. Maybe I'm wrong and the pace guys could maybe help me, but if my memory is right they did it in 24seconds or even a sub24. I mean you have a good jockey instead of albarado, and when the hole OPENS WIDE going into the first turn a good jockey would go through hanging everybody and making the speed stalk wide and come around him(or god forbid rating an EASY lead) instead of hesitating - getting locked down- going much slower for 10furlongs than he needed to- at an uneven start/stop and turning the race into a 2F closing kick contest with a race mare that he would have dominated in a regular 12 furlong race.
:) *i'm losin it*

too lazy to watch the replay but the 07 JCGC was damn near brilliant/monstrous if my memory is working

07 classic monster

08 DWC- i have no idea

08 classic - Grade 1 performance in what was overlooked as one of the better north american races in recent history, and Curlin's effort was debatably as good as the top two in spite of the ride.

pretty good career for a modern racehorse. No Secretariat Belmonts but hey

It's fair to say he peaked at less than 12 furlongs, but I don't know if i'd take Summer Bird over him even at 12. You look at the 09 belmont and the way the race was run, and you imagine Curlin getting even a slightly worse trip than SB and he might decimate that field in a race run in that matter.

Valuist
11-23-2009, 06:57 PM
Curlin was probably better at 10 than 12f and when he lost the Belmont, he did so to a horse, RTR, that (like Summer Bird) prefers 12 to 10f. Horse that prefer 12 to 10f are anomalies in today's world. Rags obviously loved 12f-she certainly was bred for it. Summer Bird also prefers 12 but as mentioned will never see it agin unless they try him on grass-which at this point makes no sense.
Curlin lost by ahead at 12f to a horse that arguably could have been a 12f specialist. It was hardly a disgrace, and had RTR not been hurt I think she'd have conirmed that the Belmont was not a freak. Had she been able I'd guess that she would have beatn Street Sense and the non entity that ran second in the Travers, and done so handily.

Traditionalists will hate this, but whatever happens in a 1 1/2 mile dirt race (real dirt) is pretty irrelevant. We don't breed to race that far on dirt, and its hardly ever done. Street Sense would've smoked Rags to Riches in the Travers.

the_fat_man
11-23-2009, 07:01 PM
Hard to believe that people think that Summer Bird is better than Curlin was at this stage in his career. Curlin put in TWO of the most incredible runs I've seen, in close to 40 years in the game:

1) The PREAKNESS, where he wore down SS.

2) The Gold Cup, where he wore down the, still under the influence, Lawyer Ron.

Where, exactly, is Summer Bird's GOOD, let alone SPECTACULAR race? :rolleyes:


And, while 12F wasn't his forte, losing by a neck, while betting pinned on the rail the last part of the Belmont stretch run, is not exactly being shown up.

FenceBored
11-23-2009, 07:23 PM
Traditionalists will hate this, but whatever happens in a 1 1/2 mile dirt race (real dirt) is pretty irrelevant. We don't breed to race that far on dirt, and its hardly ever done. Street Sense would've smoked Rags to Riches in the Travers.

3rd race at CD on Nov. 5th was a 12f Starter Allowance on the dirt. The program and the chart show ... 9 starters. :eek:

Cratos
11-23-2009, 07:42 PM
A GP maiden race seems somewhat irrelevant when talking multiple G1 route horses.

You still don’t get and probably never will. This is not about the class of the two horses, but their ability; both horses are Grade 1 stakes winners.

Valuist
11-23-2009, 08:00 PM
3rd race at CD on Nov. 5th was a 12f Starter Allowance on the dirt. The program and the chart show ... 9 starters. :eek:

What is your point? I'm sure if you dig thru charts long enough, you'll find another one. I'm sure if you looked at Beulah or Indy Downs you might be able to find a race even longer than that. So what? They are few and far between and don't matter.

Tee
11-23-2009, 08:53 PM
Debut was at 6 furlongs, 4th beaten a length.


Summer Bird never sprinted thus far in his career.

Cratos
11-23-2009, 09:00 PM
Debut was at 6 furlongs, 4th beaten a length.

Thanks for the correction and I apologize for the oversight.

hazzardm
11-23-2009, 09:54 PM
You still don’t get and probably never will.

Lol, Please explain o wise one.
SB wins Belmont(in-hand), Travers(in-hand), JCGC and he is a laughable comparison to Curlin you say. I say they compare favorably. My suspicion is SB did it with a lot fewer roids than Curlin as well. Perhaps that taints my impressions of Curlin.

Cratos
11-23-2009, 11:02 PM
Lol, Please explain o wise one.
SB wins Belmont(in-hand), Travers(in-hand), JCGC and he is a laughable comparison to Curlin you say. I say they compare favorably. My suspicion is SB did it with a lot fewer roids than Curlin as well. Perhaps that taints my impressions of Curlin.

I don’t want to put words in your mouth (as if I could), but I am some what struck by your assertion that “they compare favorably.” Curlin was not the second coming of Man O’War or Secretariat, but he was a much better 3yo than Summer Bird and ran against much better competition.

Summer Bird has faced two monsters (Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta)’ in his short career and was destroyed. Curlin ran into a monster in last year’s BC Classic in Raven’s Pass who clocked the 1 ¼ mile distance in 1:59.27 seconds while Curlin came in 4th in 1:59.72 seconds.

This year Summer Bird over the same racetrack and at the same distance met a monster in Zenyatta who got home in 2:00.62 for the distance. Summer Bird finished fourth in 2:01.12 for the distance; very favorable comparison to Curlin you say? That is an 8.235 length differential and there isn’t any variant that can rationally or statistically account for that difference.

But, if you believe that “they compare favorably” and Curlin was on steroids. Who am I to argue with such brilliance?

PaceAdvantage
11-24-2009, 01:44 AM
2) The Gold Cup, where he wore down the, still under the influence, Lawyer Ron.Still under the influence of what? Todd Pletcher's impeccable training skill set? I'm sure that's what you meant.

For those who don't know, the_fat_man is/was the world's biggest Curlin fan...I was a big fan too, but I got down on him towards the end of his career...

gm10
11-24-2009, 08:49 AM
Still under the influence of what? Todd Pletcher's impeccable training skill set? I'm sure that's what you meant.

For those who don't know, the_fat_man is/was the world's biggest Curlin fan...I was a big fan too, but I got down on him towards the end of his career...

I'm certainly not a fan of TP. He screws up a LOT of his good horses, he shortens their careers.

When is Dunkirk returning btw.

hazzardm
11-24-2009, 10:55 AM
But, if you believe that “they compare favorably” and Curlin was on steroids. Who am I to argue with such brilliance?

You could argue with Jess Jackson re: steroids ...... :D

The reigning Horse of the Year, Curlin, was treated with anabolic steroids last year but was taken off the drugs in January, the New York Times reported on Thursday, citing comments made by Jess Jackson, the majority owner of the colt.

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=3482329

Cratos
11-24-2009, 01:56 PM
You could argue with Jess Jackson re: steroids ...... :D

The reigning Horse of the Year, Curlin, was treated with anabolic steroids last year but was taken off the drugs in January, the New York Times reported on Thursday, citing comments made by Jess Jackson, the majority owner of the colt.

http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/news/story?id=3482329

That is old news and it doesn’t say that Curlin was on steroids his entire racing career; so what is your point?

Are you now saying it was only because of steroid use that Curlin performed well?

hazzardm
11-24-2009, 03:10 PM
But, if you believe that “they compare favorably” and Curlin was on steroids. Who am I to argue with such brilliance?
That is old news and it doesn’t say that Curlin was on steroids his entire racing career; so what is your point?
Your previous post implied I was brilliant for knowing this well known fact. Just trying to share the wealth of my knowledge. :p


Are you now saying it was only because of steroid use that Curlin performed well?
It certainly didn't hurt.


I think Curlin was a very good horse. I also believe we have yet to see the best of SB.

PaceAdvantage
11-24-2009, 09:48 PM
When is Dunkirk returning btw.Not sure, but I think if he isn't back by the end of the year, I lose a public bet...:eek: