Hollywood Park 11/13

[redeye007]

opening day night racing
late pick 4

race 5 :2: :1:

race 6 :10: :4:

race 7 :1: :7:

race 8 :5: :2:

good luck :)

[CBedo]

opening day night racing
late pick 4

race 5 :2: :1:

race 6 :10: :4:

race 7 :1: :7:

race 8 :5: :2:

good luck :)WOOHOO! Hol Friday night racing is back!

Just starting to look at the card, but I have looked at the last race, and the :1: is the intriguing story of the race to me. A long layoff and a drop from MSW to MCl75k to today's MCl25K doesn't exactly inspire confidence, but he's been training pretty steady since August and ran numbers in both his first races that should be competitive here. Also, a 3 year old that has been off since January has every right to have matured and improved.

I'll be looking forward to seeing this one in the post parade.

[bigmack]

I'll be looking forward to seeing this one in the post parade.
I'll be looking forward to seeing this one finishing out of the money. Hehe.

[CBedo]

I'll be looking forward to seeing this one finishing out of the money. Hehe.Assuming he's damaged goods with the layoff and drop or something else?

[bigmack]

That drop is the kiss o' D.

[CBedo]

That drop is the kiss o' D.Def makes economic sense.

[redeye007]

I'll watch the tote action on the 1 in the 8th assuming he won't be a late scratch and use him in a small pick 4 side ticket. I'm looking forward to another good meet at Hollywood. Oak Tree was the pits. I didn't post this one but I have made a good case for #4 hollywood calling in the 4th at 8/1 to possibly upset although the jockey is a negative. my price play in the exotics. :D

[redeye007]

superfecta keys

race 7 :1: with :7: :4: :9: :5:

race 8 :5: with :2: :1: :3: :10:

[CBedo]

That drop is the kiss o' D.I agree that from a "what's the economics story" standpoint of this specific situation, it seems to make sense to be wary of this one, but just for fun, I decided to look at what happens when there's a big drop in MCl price. I pulled all the HOL maiden claiming runners (I had a small data set from June 09 to date) that were running in MCl 25, 32, or 40 and were dropping from MCl 50, 62.5, 75, or 100. I found 13 such droppers in 9 races (4 races contained two droppers). Of the 9 races, you had 5 winners if you bet every horse which would have returned 39.20 for your 26.00 invested. Only 3 of the 13 ran out of the money (the two highest odds horses as well, 38/1 & 50/1).

Does this apply at all to what's going on today? Got me, but I thought I'd throw it out there.

[redeye007]

I agree that from a "what's the economics story" standpoint of this specific situation, it seems to make sense to be wary of this one, but just for fun, I decided to look at what happens when there's a big drop in MCl price. I pulled all the HOL maiden claiming runners (I had a small data set from June 09 to date) that were running in MCl 25, 32, or 40 and were dropping from MCl 50, 62.5, 75, or 100. I found 13 such droppers in 9 races (4 races contained two droppers). Of the 9 races, you had 5 winners if you bet every horse which would have returned 39.20 for your 26.00 invested. Only 3 of the 13 ran out of the money (the two highest odds horses as well, 38/1 & 50/1).

Does this apply at all to what's going on today? Got me, but I thought I'd throw it out there.

I just watched the replay for 01/01/09 race 5 at calracing and the horse didn't run that badly for the mile, he was always right there although he could not get past Ringolevio and tired in the end. Ringolevio finally broke his maiden on 11/05 for MC25000. the shorter distance may be his dish of tea.

[Bluesthestandard]

WOOHOO! Hol Friday night racing is back!

Just starting to look at the card, but I have looked at the last race, and the :1: is the intriguing story of the race to me. A long layoff and a drop from MSW to MCl75k to today's MCl25K doesn't exactly inspire confidence, but he's been training pretty steady since August and ran numbers in both his first races that should be competitive here. Also, a 3 year old that has been off since January has every right to have matured and improved.

I'll be looking forward to seeing this one in the post parade.

If you are talking about Take from the Rich in the 8th, good luck with that. scratched 11/05/08 then ran 4TH in January for Bobby Frankel/Valdivia @ 11/1. Then scratches 2/25/09 not be seen until now under the colors of Periban/Solis tandem. 5/1 is too low for me. A play--maybe--@ 9/1 or higher. Frankel couldn't even keep the horse together.

[bks]

redeye: I think the :1: will have a hard time making the lead in race 7, which will probably compromise him. He could hang on for a piece, but without the lead I wonder about his chances.

If you think Ron, Bob and Dave can close, he's a nice play IMO. He'll sit behind the pace and get first run, and should be a little tighter tonight. But I'm not sure he can hold off what's behind him.

In race 8, I'm interested in your reasons for leaving out Ellis' horse, :7: . Looks like a lock to hit the board off the race two back. If you have a good reason to kick him, I'd be glad to know it.

One other thing: if Eminent Honor is even 1/3 the price he was last time, I recommend including him. I admit to using him in the bottom exotic rungs both races at Delmar when Stute had him. He woke up finally last race. He'll be long again, and his best fig is over this track.

[redeye007]

redeye: I think the :1: will have a hard time making the lead in race 7, which will probably compromise him. He could hang on for a piece, but without the lead I wonder about his chances.

If you think Ron, Bob and Dave can close, he's a nice play IMO. He'll sit behind the pace and get first run, and should be a little tighter tonight. But I'm not sure he can hold off what's behind him.

In race 8, I'm interested in your reasons for leaving out Ellis' horse, :7: . Looks like a lock to hit the board off the race two back. If you have a good reason to kick him, I'd be glad to know it.

One other thing: if Eminent Honor is even 1/3 the price he was last time, I recommend including him. I admit to using him in the bottom exotic rungs both races at Delmar when Stute had him. He woke up finally last race. He'll be long again, and his best fig is over this track.

I'm actually experimenting with a method I used at the last Hollywood meet which I had excellent results incorporating calculations based on the way the leaders that these horses were chasing ran. from a handicapping perspective looks like a serious contender based on the class drop and his race on 8/21 at Del Mar. His last race was very poor and that's why I am not picking him up in my calculations which isn't to say that he won't be there. Speed seems to hold a heck of a lot better at Hollywood than dmr or osa and that's what i'm hoping for with the 5. I'm just going easy for the opener but if I was going deep and covering he is definitely a must use. Eminent honor might get a piece and I'll be using him under the 5 for the super.

[redeye007]

superfecta keys

race 7 :1: with :7: :4: :9: :5:

race 8 :5: with :2: :1: :3: :10:


race 7 #4 late scratch. I'll replace him with #3 another longshot.