When is too much too much

[misscashalot]

Is there too much handicapping information available for our own good?

How do you pick and chose the info that's available, free and for a price, in order to make capping decisions?

How does knowing too much interfere with our handicapping?

[Pell Mell]

Information overload is not good. I don't agree much with 46 but on this I do. There are not all that many factors that are pertinent to handicapping

I love the Bris condensed version because all the info I need is there and I'm not distracted by a bunch of meaningless stats. And, all the horses are usually on one page so I don't have to keep flipping pages and can get a good overview at a glance.

Something along the line of not being able to see the forest because the trees are in the way.

[cmoore]

Too much information can turn your decision making into one big headache. If your new at this game. I advise to keep it simple. Past Performances are free at Brisnet if you make a bet on that track at twinspires. So pick your tracks the day before and do your handicapping the day before. Make sure you make at least one bet for each of the tracks you downloaded and the pps will be free. The ultimate pps might be too much for the newbie. If so then start with the quick play pps.

Is there too much handicapping information available for our own good?

How do you pick and chose the info that's available, free and for a price, in order to make capping decisions?

How does knowing too much interfere with our handicapping?

[ranchwest]

The good thing about a lot of data is that you have a choice of how to use it or even whether to use it.

Data needs to be refined or formatted or extracted or summarized or consolidated or whatever because very few people can deal with going through a lot of data. It becomes overload.

[Overlay]

I divide factors or performance measures into major groups (such as class, speed, pace, and form), and look for the factor/measure in each group that has the largest spread and the smoothest progression of values in ranking a field from top to bottom with respect to winning probability, separated out by distance and running surface . The grouping and the comparison helps me to distinguish the "significant few" from the "trivial many", and to avoid redundancy. The use of distance and running surface helps me to spot factors that may be more effective at shorter distances than at longer distances (or vice versa), or that are specific to dirt, turf, or poly.

[46zilzal]

Paralysis by analysis has been a problem for a very long time.

Read BLINK and you will find out why

[Fingal]

One of the best thing BRIS provides for FREE is the custom PP Generator. Being able to cut down the number of running lines & workouts to the most recent few eliminates much of the information overload. Creating reports that sort by filters, being to eliminate non contenders from the printout-:jump:

[andymays]

Some information is "meat and potatoes" and some information is "desert"!


You should have a process for handicapping and it's a time consuming pain in the ass to do it right.

[Cadillakin]

Is there too much handicapping information available for our own good?

How do you pick and chose the info that's available, free and for a price, in order to make capping decisions?

How does knowing too much interfere with our handicapping?I use;
1. Formulator Enhanced PP's (Moss Speed figs included) that easily link me to the recent result charts, recent workouts, and broodmare records. Formulator Enhanced allows you to see every race of the horse, so the total picture of the athletes career is available.
2. Selvin's TurfDay Super Stats (at Youbet - minimal charge or free - depending on amount bet. At most, $9.95 a month) Super Stats provides a complete history of the horse, with every workout and race since the first time he stepped on the racetrack.. showing all breaks and patterns, as well as all charts from the runners first races, stallion win percentages, first time starter data, and other useful breeding and racing information. The workout history of the youngsters is invaluable. If you see long, long patterns on the well bred horses, the horses aren't coming to hand, but brief patterns with a single or a couple of sneaky-quick works reveal live horses. Also, it gives one the ability to better predict the horses who will stretch out.. those who have been trained to do so and have the necessary bottom - as indicated by the totality of their recent work history.
3. The American Produce Records CD - (buy at Ebay a year old edition for about $75 - $100) for more specific information on the broodmare offspring - average winning distance, turf form, best Beyer fig, all stakes placings, and the runners SSI, which gives a numerical class rating, based on earnings per start and correlated to the years he/she raced.. etc..
4. Racing Replays provided by Youbet (free or some charges apply)
5. Racing Replays provided by Calracing.com (free)
6. Pedigree.com for a quick look at 5 generation pedigrees. (free)

That's it. I don't look at analysis, figs, or other handicappers opinions. I make my own decisions with those tools. Pro-rated, with the PP's purchased in bulk, it's about $2.50 per race card.

[cmoore]

I use:
1)..The Multicap data files at brisnet and sometimes print out the pps my way using the custom pp generator.
2)..Multicaps software helps me compare figures from each horse easily.
3)..Insider picks and power plays..I look for key races and clocker workouts on these reports.
4)..I also look over the brisnet pps. AWD and spi figure sheds some light on maiden races..Summary sheet gives me and idea on what is winning..
5)..Sire, trainer and broodmare sire reports at breedingwinners.com. Along with the top sire lists..

[DeanT]

Good topic Misscash.

I agree with the blink thing, because most here follow races religiously and have a built-in knowledge when a good bet pops up, and generally with that good bet it is usually decided with one criteria.

For example I follow some trainers - in the end, in a blanket way it is ROI negative - but there are situations that jump out at you and they tend to be high ROI plays. For example, there is one dude I follow who wins at about 25% or so off claim, but without fail when he takes cash the horse is great, when he does not the horse sucks. It's an easy play - see off the claim, check the board and bet or do not bet. I dont care who is against the horse, what the horse looks like, if he is stretching out or shortening up, the state of the racetrack, or whatever. No use digging when such a simple play you have made money on pops up.

I think players have their simple plays several times a day and I would submit they are super revenue drivers for them and they can win on them without thinking.

[the_fat_man]

I don't do anything other than watch races/replays and generate my charts. I continually grow historical charts for horses and use these as PPs. No figures, no stats of any kind, no proprietary data, no touts (no external opinions). That way, I'm not dependent on anyone else. (Note the scrambling with TSN going out of business, for example.) All I need is access to the video and basic results (splits, positions, beaten lengths). If I can't do it on my own, then I'm not really doing it.

[classhandicapper]

I use Formulator with Moss Pace Figures, CJ's figures, Logic Dictates, and watch the day's races myself as I'm playing to get bias information which I put inside Formulator. Bias is the one thing I don't trust anyone but myself to do. I usually watch all the Grades Stakes too, but that's fun.

I pretty much don't do any work at all anymore other than handicapping and betting unless I am researching a new angle or insight.

I calculated figures for myself for years, but I don't see the point given that someone else is willing to sell me equal quality work for a very reasonable price. I just like to have multiple sources of figures to cross check and perhaps identify occasional errors when something doesn't look right.

I think you can definitely get information overload because it's extremely difficult to weigh large amounts of conflicting data properly and form an odds line. Though I do rank contenders in order of preference, it's a very rough ranking. I think the better approach is to look for profitable situations within several areas of handicapping.

In other words, I have trainer plays, pace plays, bias plays, figure plays, inefficient pool plays, arbitrage plays, class plays, surface switch plays etc... Each picks up on something the public often misunderstands.

[DJofSD]

There's data and then there's information. Don't confuse the two.

If you think having more data will help make the picture more clear, guess again. Think of it like creating a sculpture -- it's only when you take things away the work of art is revealed.

If you don't have a clear idea of how to handicap, deciding what approach works for today's race then no amount of data will solve your problem. It's like a journey: if you don't know where you are going then any road will get you there.

[Tom]

All I need to know is who has the best Beyer. :rolleyes::D

[raybo]

I use the Brisnet $1 data file, run it through the free utility, from Brisnet, called "Infotran". You can write your own Infotran control file that contains only the data that you want to use, then open the resulting text file in Excel.

From there one is free to do whatever one wishes with the data. You have complete control over what data you see and what you do with it.

[Stillriledup]

Don't worry about 'angles', stick to betting on the best horse. Angles just get in the way.

[fmolf]

i use bris ultimate pp's and have found these to be perfect for me.I do not use figures as anything more than a general indicator of form ,and their pace figures help me easily determine if a horse is rounding into form.Their race ratings help me to see which horses have come out of tougher races or may actually be dropping in class, when the conditions might say otherwise.Their class ratings are a fairly predictive indicator of current form and the race summary is invaluable as far as running positions and possible bias's as well as what has been winning recently at this class surface and distance.I have found their info to be the most comprehensive info in one product and therefore is all i use.then they have the horses listed from first to worst in the different ratings they offer.

[WinterTriangle]

There's data and then there's information. Don't confuse the two.

If you think having more data will help make the picture more clear, guess again. Think of it like creating a sculpture -- it's only when you take things away the work of art is revealed.

........... It's like a journey: if you don't know where you are going then any road will get you there.

Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland:
Alice: Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?
The Cat: That depends a good deal on where you want to get to

[Quesmark]

I divide factors or performance measures into major groups (such as class, speed, pace, and form), and look for the factor/measure in each group that has the largest spread and the smoothest progression of values in ranking a field from top to bottom with respect to winning probability, separated out by distance and running surface . The grouping and the comparison helps me to distinguish the "significant few" from the "trivial many", and to avoid redundancy. The use of distance and running surface helps me to spot factors that may be more effective at shorter distances than at longer distances (or vice versa), or that are specific to dirt, turf, or poly.

In other words you narrow it down.

http://gabrielutasi.com/comic/copyright/gabrielutasi/2008/01/013008sorbet.gif

[Overlay]

In other words you narrow it down.

Well, yes, but if you're saying that I used too many words to make that point, the intent of my post was to give an indication of how I go about narrowing it down.

[CBedo]

The more data the better! Unfortunately, most "new" information is just reformatted old stuff, but I'd welcome new data sources, such as Trakus information or any other type of new information.

It's our job as the handicapper to process it, and make the best use of the data and our time. In this day and age, most of us don't have an informational edge, but it is possible to get a processing edge possibly.

Give me more data!

[Cratos]

Is there too much handicapping information available for our own good?

How do you pick and chose the info that's available, free and for a price, in order to make capping decisions?

How does knowing too much interfere with our handicapping?

You never know too much and you never have too much information.

The problem arises in the understanding of what you don’t know and the assessment of the information that you have.

Horserace gambling is a game of chance like many other games of chance, but the players of horserace gambling engage in a methodology called handicapping which focus on wagering against each other in a pari-mutuel format to determine the winner of a given race is handicapping in its simplest definition.

However handicapping for some players is far more sophisticated and they go to determinants of speed, class, distance, weight, etc. and by using supplicated computer models and programs they attempt to move to certainty in the outcome of the horserace.

But many horserace gamblers are one dimensional and is blind-folded by what they don’t know which causes their evaluations and measurements to be skewed in the wrong direction.

I believe that fundamentally you have to understand the game of horseracing and that means have an understanding of pedigree, have an understanding of race conditions, weight, class, distance, style, pace, etc.

Then marry those understandings with such tools as statistics, physics, math, computer programming, and computer modeling..

If you are diligence and patience with your wagering, you might be able to show a financial profit for your efforts.

[the_fat_man]

I believe that fundamentally you have to understand the game of horseracing and that means have an understanding of pedigree, have an understanding of race conditions, weight, class, distance, style, pace, etc.

Then marry those understandings with such tools as statistics, physics, math, computer programming, and computer modeling..

If you are diligence and patience with your wagering, you might be able to show a financial profit for your efforts.

In other words, you're advocating the more general truism that the 'best' models are created by those with intuitions about that which they're modeling. Can you provide some examples, on this forum, of posters that are doing this?

[Cratos]

In other words, you're advocating the more general truism that the 'best' models are created by those with intuitions about that which they're modeling. Can you provide some examples, on this forum, of posters that are doing this?

I cannot post who are winning and who are losing on the PA Forum. Also if I knew them by name I wouldn’t post their names.

However in the past I have stated that the three posters that I felt added value to my understanding of the “handicapping game” are Robert99, The Little Guy (TLG), and DanG. In recent months I have added “CJ” to that list.

I am not saying that they are the smartest or the most profitable posters on the forum, but if you read what they post you will get a good understanding of handicapping of racehorses.

Also, I realize that sometimes they are somewhat arrogant and even sarcastic, but I don’t think that behavior should exclude the knowledge being given by them from being obtained.

[the_fat_man]

I wasn't asking for who the winners are on the forum. The strong opinions are pretty obvious. I was looking for examples of those combining some of the 'tools' you mentions with strong intuitions (knowledge) about the game.

[Cratos]

I wasn't asking for who the winners are on the forum. The strong opinions are pretty obvious. I was looking for examples of those combining some of the 'tools' you mentions with strong intuitions (knowledge) about the game.

The ones that come quickly to mind are CJ, Steve R, TrifectaMike, GameTheory, and Robbert99

[CBedo]

In other words, you're advocating the more general truism that the 'best' models are created by those with intuitions about that which they're modeling. Can you provide some examples, on this forum, of posters that are doing this?I agree with that for the most part. Although, I've tried and continue to try some "throw stuff against the wall and see what sticks data mining," most of the work that I'm using came from an intuition, thought, or belief that I then tried to support or disprove with modeling work behind it. Some of the most value added pieces are finding exceptions to a generally held belief. It's also a heckuva lot easier to have confidence in your models (especially during losing streaks) if you have some logical grounding for what you're doing.

I'd also add that for me personally, I in no way am trying to get to "certainty." I'm just embracing the uncertainty, and hopefully, by not ever trying to think I "know it all," I can formulate models that work well within their stipulated constraints.

[Tape Reader]

When is too much too much?

There came a time in my horse betting hobby when I just accepted the fact that, I didn't know what I didn't know. I decided to analyze the tote board instead of the PP's. Fewer variables. My bottom line has improved.