Looks Like a Wet Belmont

[JustRalph]

They may have " sloppy" by this afternoon.

Forecast:
Lowering and thickening cloudiness with rain developing around midday. The rain may become heavy at times toward evening. Highs in the mid to upper 60s. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph...becoming east late in the day.



http://home.columbus.rr.com/justralph/belmont_weather.jpg

[Kentucky Bred]

The rich keep getting richer.

As I see it from a breeding standpoint.

1--EM--370 Tomlinson/ 234 Dan Serra number

Performed well (won) on a muddy track and breeding says "go". Moves up big-time in the mud.

2--Supervisor--335 T/ 200 DS number

Won in the mud but a 'good' track--not really what we should see today. Also closers are often benefited on a good track. Performed poorly on a 'sloppy' tracky earlier in the year as a 4-1 choice in a small stakes race. Will run poorer.

3--Scrimshaw--325 T/ 226 DS number

Ran 3rd on a 'good' track (Preakness). But Gulches can get sloppy tracks. Could improve.

4--Funny--322 T/ 228 DS number

Can flat out run in the mud. But a best effort ever in last race and a ridiculous sub-58 work 4 days ago. We'll see if he can overcome his "human element" today. Moves way up in the mud.

5--Dynever--315 T/ 188 DS number.

Tomlinson number is at least acceptable. But the Dan Serra number is way low. I have found Dan's numbers to be very indicative, especially on the mud vs. Tomlinson's. If it is 'sloppy', I say Dynever never gets rolling late. If somehow drying out...maybe.

6--Ten Most Wanted--217 T/ 180 DS number.

No race experience on a off track. This horse is the most likely to suffer. Will Dollase ever get a break?

In the slop, it appears that the chalk again have an advantage. Maybe the low paying FC/EM exacta is the "value play".

Kentucky Bred

[SAL]

The Belmont racing surface is sealed, so the rain may not have that much effect. Front runners seem to be doing well so far, so that may play into Funny Cide's advantage.

[Racehorse]

NO WIN BETS today
all exacta and trifecta "stabs"
and the reasons

ONE - Empire Maker
can win, but odds too low to make it profitable to make a win wager, as I think his probable chance to win would be reflected in odds of about 7/2 .. won't get that

TWO - Gary West in the Dallas News is picking him to place
I pick him last

THREE - Scrimshaw
can win by attempting to go wire to wire, and that is what I think Lukas will try to do
tempting odds for such a short field, so I've got him in a part of the wagers

FOUR - Funny Cide
I surely hoping that the 45@4f continuing on to 57@5f didn't take anything out of him couple of days ago ...
low odds and we've done very well with him ROI wize in the first two .... his race to lose so gotta have him with the most bets and most dollars, even tho it isn't much

FIVE - Dynever
don't know how good he'll end up being .... could be the best of this crop "possibly", but I think he'll be a force with which to reckon today and later this year ....
runs fab .. looks fab ... can win but will be handy when the race is over ... wish he were longer odds <hey .. I can wish>

SIX - Ten Most Wanted
don't think he can win but he can get up there close so I've got him in the exotics

bets down and done

NO win
NO place
NO show

exactas
3-5 with 3-5-6
1-3-4-5 with 5-6
1 with 5-6
4 with 5-6 (five times)

trifectas
3 with 5-6 with 1-4
4 with 5-6 with 1-5-6
4 with 5-6 with 1

I "think" the race will end up
4-5-1
or
4-6-1

[Skanoochies]

Hey Sal, pardon my ignorance, but what the hell do they do to seal a track. I have heard this numerous times but have never heard a reasonable explanation.

Thanks in advance,

Skanoochies.:confused: :confused: :confused:

[GameTheory]

They roll over it with extremely heavy giant rollers -- packs it down so the water cannot penetrate the soil and it runs off.

[Skanoochies]

Thanks G.T.