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View Full Version : Synthetic Surfaces - The False Issue in Racing.


Cadillakin
11-10-2009, 10:28 AM
A race horse is born. If you are a cowboy in New Mexico or a gentleman owner in Kentucky, you raise them, you care for them, you teach them their lessons. One day they are old enough to saddle and ride. They are then tested for agility and speed. Thereafter, if the aptitude is there, they are raced. These young horses, like the many thousands before them know nothing about the politics of racing or handicapping. They just accept the man on their back. When the man says; "Yaaaaa", the horse runs in the direction they are pointed. On each and every surface they run. Saddle them, mount them, say yaaaaa, spur them on or encourage them, and they run - on anything.

If the owner of the horse is living in France, the horse will race on the grass. It will rain sometimes - many times - and the horses who have no say in the matter will race on the heavy going, as asked. Whatever the circumstances, these race horses will do what is required of them. Soon, the owner will realize if the horse has the action suitable to firm or off going. After that assessment, he will try and put the horse in a locale that suits, and on a surface the runner handles well. There is some experimenting and many unknowns during this process. Even if the horse is bred to be a champion, one never knows if the horse will act and race like his parents, or if he will have very few of their characteristics. Each day the handicappers of the world bet on first time starters that have no form. They check out the training routine, the breeding, the handlers, and they make their guesses. The horse runs. Some run well, some run poorly. Whatever their ability, their races constitute what is known as their "racing form". If he races on the dirt, his form will be specific to the dirt. If he races on grass, the form is specific to the grass. And when he races on synthetics, his form will be specific to synthetics. When he changes tracks or surface, his form changes - either for the better or worse. When he changes company, moving in with easier or facing tougher, his form changes. Some horses handle all surfaces well, but will prefer one over the other. Some will race over different distances until the handlers decide which is best. Some will show strong inclinations for certain surfaces and certain distances. Nobody knows what the results will be until they are tried.

Initially, before the racing career begins, the horses will not be thought of as synthetic horses or grass horses or dirt horses, they will simply be; Race Horses. If they race a few times over the California synthetics, many of the handicappers will consider them; Synthetic Horses. If some who initially are owned by California interests are sent to New York or sold to New York interests, they will soon be thought of as; Dirt Horses. But always, no matter their locale or the surface they race over, they retain the qualities of the race horse.

In the beginning, if Zenyatta were sold to another owner, her career would have been different. Yes. But to suggest she is a champion because she races on synthetics is *pure unadulterated nonsense*. If you saw her powerful way of going in the last sixteenth in the Classic, that has little to do with the surface and everything to do with her great athletic prowess. One of the riders opposing Zenyatta in her only dirt race at Oaklawn said; "She went by us in two strides." Another rider, Ramon Dominguez, said of Zenyatta in the same race; "She raced wide and blew by us with her ears like this" twitching his fingers back and forth emulating Zenyatta's pricking ears.. Garret Gomez echoed that statement when Zenyatta flew by the near champion, Life is Sweet, in a synthetic race; In three strides, she (Zenyatta) went on by." So, those who know the action best agree, that Zenyatta is dominant over both surfaces. There is no evidence whatsoever that she loses or gains anything at all moving from synthetic or dirt. Simply, Zenyatta is a champion with an overpowering finishing kick. IMO, she may have been every bit as good if she were bought by English or French interests and raced on grass. She might have been the eqivalent of Zarkava or Allez France. We can all see now that her racing class is at that supreme level.

Let's do a little mental experiment.. Let's move every single dirt horse in the East and move them to California. Will they then be synthetic horses after they have been here a month? Six months? A year? When do they become synthetic horses? When they race over the surface? When they win? Are they synthetic horses because they are here in California? The answer is none of those. They will be race horses whose recent form is synthetic.

When our Western horses go East for next years championships, how they will fare? Will they transfer their form, or even improve a like I Want Revenge, or will they decline? The handicappers in the West will be just as clueless as those in the East. I can tell you one thing for sure, we in the West, won't complain. We will race and do our best.

I've been handicapping the horses most of my life, always in California.. and I can tell you unequivocally, there have been very few Eastern Horses who shipped to the West who immediately adapted to the Californa surfaces - dirt or synthetic. Loren Retelle, protege of Jack Van Berg, and a great trainer in his own right, particularly with fast horses (Grenzen, Beira, etc..) told me that Eastern horses have different muscling than Western horses .. as the ground they train over is quite different. He even showed me a few Eastern horses while we strolled at Santa Anita and pointed to different areas of the horse for me to note.. Though I had not the skill or the eye to understand all that he conveyed, I easily understood the concept. And IMO, that very same concept applies to synthetic to dirt and dirt to synthetic. My guess is that the Western horses who race over synthetic will not have nearly as much difficulty adjusting to dirt tracks, as the Easterners do to California synthetics for the same reasons mentioned. In comparison, the training over synthetic is perhaps tougher and affects more deeply the horses interior muscling, much like a human athlete training on the beach sand. Therefore, horses training over synthetic may lose some of their brilliant speed... but will gain stamina from their training regimen over the demanding surface. Conversely, horses who train over dirt may be more disadvantaged when sent to synthetics... as their stamina is not quite sufficient to stay over the more demanding surface. There have been many examples in the recent Breeders Cup Championship races of the Easterners not carrying their speed far enough..

This is an interesting phenomenon for me. In years past, from the mid-60's onward, (my years) the Western horses had trouble staying over the sandier eastern soils.. And the eastern horses couldn't quicken sufficiently over the western ground. Now, with synthetics, it appears the opposite is occurring.

But it's always been about race horses racing where we ask them too. In my opinion, most of the synthetic issue is created and fostered by handicappers who WISH that horses were exactly the same racing over synthetics as they are on dirt. But until each horse is given the chance to race and train over the surface, we will not know how good they are... which is no different than a grass horses first outings, or a horse racing over off surfaces.. Until form is established, nobody can know. The best of us will make better guesses than the rest.

But the essence of handicapping has always been about understanding form with extra rewards for those who guess well.

toussaud
11-10-2009, 10:35 AM
I've been handicapping the horses most of my life, always in California.. .


really? I never would have guessed

Tom
11-10-2009, 11:19 AM
Let's do a little mental experiment.. Let's move every single dirt horse in the East and move them to California. Will they then be synthetic horses after they have been here a month? Six months? A year? When do they become synthetic horses? When they race over the surface? When they win? Are they synthetic horses because they are here in California? The answer is none of those. They will be race horses whose recent form is synthetic.

Those bred for it will move to the head of the class. Eventually, those not bred for it will stop being bred. In the meantime, when all race on poly and none are that good, you will have winners and inferior races. They all can run on poly, just how fast. They can all run on grass. They will all be synth horses, just many of them not very good ones.

the_fat_man
11-10-2009, 12:00 PM
In my opinion, most of the synthetic issue is created and fostered by handicappers who WISH that horses were exactly the same racing over synthetics as they are on dirt. But until each horse is given the chance to race and train over the surface, we will not know how good they are... which is no different than a grass horses first outings, or a horse racing over off surfaces.. Until form is established, nobody can know. The best of us will make better guesses than the rest.

The common belief used to be that DIRT horses were FAST or GOOD (or whatever) and TURF horses were just dirt horses that weren't FAST on dirt and thus had to run on the lower class surface. The emphasis was always on the DIRT animals. This, with the exception of a few very good dirt horses that were equally good on turf, leads to situations where some really good DIRT horses got trounced when they tried the turf, by horses that weren't anywhere near their equal on dirt (relatively or otherwise). Now, only a DIRTcentric approach would deem DIRT horses superior to turf horses given knowledge of these situations. But this is what happened and still does. Clearly a horse that's FAST (on any surface) is a FAST horse. Of course, there needs to be a notion of 'FAST' that's comprehensive enough to capture the nuances of the different surfaces. This is not the case, however.

And the same shit has carried over to POLY. Take the case of I Want Revenge. A relative plodder on POLY yet FAST on DIRT. Clearly, this horse was misplaced on POLY, we are told. Yet, we're also told that the horse that spanked IWR, Pioneerofthenile, is SLOW. (As evidence, we're directed to his 2nd place finish in the DERBY, which clearly shows how slow he is.:) Now, how can that be? If he's SLOW then how does he spank a FAST horse? Well, technically, IWR used to be SLOW but then became FAST. Maybe he grew to be FAST and wasn't FAST when POTN, who is SLOW, whipped his ass. Yeah, see how stupid this is. This is all because figure makers, BEYER as the most prominent, have no way of making numbers that make sense over the different surfaces.

And all the lackeys that can't evaluate races without reference to numbers are left WHINING about synthetics.

The game, all of a sudden, got too complicated for them. Go figure.

Charlie D
11-10-2009, 12:06 PM
Street Cry, Elusive Quality, Smart Strike, Real Quiet, Tiznow, Empire Maker

Dirt parentage does not mean your an instant throw out and those with Dirt Sires should be counting the cash.

Tom
11-10-2009, 12:42 PM
Poly parentage is just becoming usable. You can begin to see who's offspring can run on both or all three and whose who will not be advantaged by it.

Grits
11-10-2009, 12:55 PM
really? I never would have guessed

A one liner wising off to one who has been watching races and handicapping for a living for decades and decades. Something meaningful may have moved the dialogue along a bit better.

Enjoyed by thousands, worldwide, the Breeders' Cup was outstanding; two great days of racing with no unfortunate incidents.

Handle holding well in these difficult economic times which in itself is excellent and nothing short of miraculous, the BCs in the books.

The weekends before, and of, Thanksgiving will have some fine races at Churchill and Aqueduct.

Toussand, CJ's one liners are legendary, but more than that--most often, quite meaningful. Yours, definitely not.

(Edit to add.) Time for a little break.

ddog
11-10-2009, 01:02 PM
numbers can be used to evaluate horses on either poly or dirt.

I don't see the problem?

The way in which the nbrs are earned maybe different and the numbers may require emphasis on different factors, but they can be used.

I don't use Beyers , so if that is the only nbr we are talking about then maybe that is true of THAT NUMBER.


Caddy - nice post as usual - keep em coming when you have something.
thx

Charlie D
11-10-2009, 01:11 PM
Poly parentage is just becoming usable. You can begin to see who's offspring can run on both or all three and whose who will not be advantaged by it.

Thats it Tom, with time the information goes from trickle to raging river and becomes more reliable.

WinterTriangle
11-10-2009, 02:15 PM
I've been handicapping the horses most of my life

Not surprised. Your essay was beautiful.

The opening line: "A race horse is born." simple, elegant, and one that even Hemingway would appreciate.

46zilzal
11-10-2009, 02:38 PM
All of these make the assumption that synthetic surfaces are ALIKE, and that is a huge miscalculation. Keeneland is not like Turfway which is not like GGF or like Hollywood.

The EAST to WEST change has been apparent over the years but NOT as strong as our friend would point toward. Czarvich, Dr. Fager, Spectacular Bid, Fort Marcy, Jim French, etc. etc. handled it with ease

Tom
11-10-2009, 02:56 PM
Nope, you are wrong. All grass courses are different, too.
You may get stronger stats when you go course specific, but overall, grass is grass an didfferent enough from dirt to e significant.


Charlie, I have a report with three columns - one for dirt, poly, and grass. Side by side comparisons for each sire. It was free for BC at Bloodhorse. You can see some sires are 70% ITM on dirt, and 15% on poly. Stakes performance is also shown, as a guidleine. Where actual races are not ther, itis a good guide.

I would guess right now there is hesitation to breed for poly with rumors abound about California pulling it out.

fmolf
11-10-2009, 03:50 PM
Nope, you are wrong. All grass courses are different, too.
You may get stronger stats when you go course specific, but overall, grass is grass an didfferent enough from dirt to e significant.


Charlie, I have a report with three columns - one for dirt, poly, and grass. Side by side comparisons for each sire. It was free for BC at Bloodhorse. You can see some sires are 70% ITM on dirt, and 15% on poly. Stakes performance is also shown, as a guidleine. Where actual races are not ther, itis a good guide.

I would guess right now there is hesitation to breed for poly with rumors abound about California pulling it out.
those horses would becoma turf horses as turf to poly seems to be interchangeable almost.Much better than dirt to poly that is for certain.

46zilzal
11-10-2009, 03:52 PM
those horses would become turf horses as turf to poly seems to be interchangeable almost.Much better than dirt to poly that is for certain.
The belief that TURF from translates to POLY form makes me a ton of money weekly at Woodbine. There is NO evidence it works, yet lots of money is bet and lost with this arcane Idea in mind.

LIKE ANY ATHLETE some change (imagine telling us that ALL tennis players who do well on the lawn couldn't do well on clay) some adapt. others don't.

Charlie D
11-10-2009, 04:27 PM
Like 46 states, some can, some can't

More runs, more Pacelines, more the raging river of imformation flows the bettors way.

rwwupl
11-10-2009, 04:51 PM
Cadillakin,

Thank you for your well educated view on the subject. :ThmbUp:

Greyfox
11-10-2009, 05:33 PM
Those bred for it will move to the head of the class. Eventually, those not bred for it will stop being bred.

Undoubtedly the hoofs of some horses are more suited for poly at a specific track. Does ability on poly at Track A translate to ability on poly at track B? Remember there are several different types of poly surfaces.
Tapeta at one, Pro-ride at another, poly track at another.
Then next year there may be even more types of poly.
Let's keep some things in mind.
1. Horses have always run on natural surfaces.
2. The evolution of hoofs has taken millions of years.
3. Poly is a new phenomena, and there are several types of it.

I'd be skeptical of any stats showing that a particular Sire had offspring that was prodigious on poly. My guess is that the same sire would have lots of offspring that wouldn't handle it. I'd want thirty years of stats and info on what poly tracks their offspring won on.
If I were a breeder, I'd say the jury is still out on this one Tom.

Charlie D
11-10-2009, 05:43 PM
Does ability on poly at Track A translate to ability on poly at track B? Remember there are several different types of poly surfaces.
Tapeta at one, Pro-ride at another, poly track at another.


The raging river provides some of this information, however, what we as bettors, handicappers need to remember is, horses are individuals, so what may have suited one or more may not suit all.