windoor
11-08-2009, 02:30 PM
Hello all, newbie here, though I’ve been lurking for a while.
A short bio and a couple of questions. Sorry for the long post, didn’t mean to write a book.
I’ve been in and out of the game for about forty years now, thanks to my dad who introduced it to me in the early seventies. (Yes, many times I have regretted ever getting involved) He was mostly a system player, based on a flat win bet and that’s where I’m at today. I must say I have never known him to make a profit over the long haul. He has tried many handicapping systems, (as have I) and while all would get the occasional winner, none would return a profit over time. My dad is gone now, and I really miss not having anyone to talk to about a sport I’ve grown to love.
I learned early on that if one were going to make a consistent profit at horse racing, you would have to develop your own method. After years of research and trial and error, I can finally say I’m having my first winning year, regardless of what happens in the next couple of months. It was a long time coming and only delayed because I was a very slow learner when it came to patience (wait for the right opportunity) and discipline. (No side bets on exotics or horses that did not quite qualify, but were all so tempting with long odds)
To date I have been looking at just one track, and feel I can now move on to others. The question is, can I succeed at other tracks. Optimally, I would want to look at the last two years of any track I am considering. Handicap all playable races and see what the hit rate and average odd would be. Handicap is the wrong word, as I no longer do any real handicapping. I have developed a series of spot plays that is dependent on the type of race and distance. I no longer care about pace or speed numbers or (shocker) even the post time odds. I’m only interested in the win percent and average odd over every one hundred playable races. I know there can be some improvement it this area, but I am content with what I have.
I’m hesitant to even post this, as from what I have been reading here, it does seem to be an outrageous claim, but for last three months at my home track, my win percent is 47.74% at an average odd of 5.71. Longest run out is eight. I keep running totals in Excel. These are all spot plays and I am lucky to find three, sometimes four plays a day. The average odd would need to be adjusted down a half point or so, as sometimes I am required to play more that one horse to win. Another hard lesson for me.
The big question.
Is there a software program out there that would let me set up a user-defined query on a database of past performance and results for any given track to crunch the numbers for me?
I envision a form (I use post time daily) with every bit of information listed as a separate cell that can be manipulated with Boolean operators and filters. For instance, a subset that included only route races 7.5 to 9 furlongs for filly and mares at 3 years old. Maybe some drop down menus for the most common filters like distance with multi choice (All, Sprints, Routes, or user defined range). Type of surface. (All, dirt, turf, synthetic, or user defined) Class levels (claiming, allowance, handicap, stakes, or user-defined range. Especially claiming races as I treat a 5K claimer much different that one for 25K)
Basically, what I want is a system checker. Not a black box that picks winners, (though I suppose it could if set up correctly) but a program that is capable of giving some real answers as to whether or not what I’m doing can work at other tracks. Or what would happen if I wheeled my top contender (top and bottom) in and exacta when odds are over 10 to 1? Something I just started to work on, but I would need to know what the win and place percent is for these types of horses, and the average pay out of the exacta. I have never tracked my place percent, but once went 17 out 24 a few years ago. A bank breaker.
If I only wanted to play gray horses out of the post position number five, Maiden claiming for fillies and Mares at route races. How may plays would I have? How many win? What is the average odd? What is the ROI for a $2 bet? No, that’s not what I do, but the flexibility of doing something like it, is what I would like,
I am very much interested in the way the last five races were run, and at what distance and class level. I am also very interested in each call of the last five races as in position on the track and beaten lengths. These are key to me for finding contenders.
Is there anything like this out there? Or do I need to download the last two years of past performances and result charts for the track I am interested in and do it the old fashion way, one at a time. Very time consuming and if I want to change a rule, I have to start over and do it again and again. There must be an easier way.
It seems to me, anyone who is considering taking a bank (regardless of size) to play the races, would be well advised to see how well it would have worked over the last two years at any given track. It could very well save you a bundle and make the investment of such a program worth the cost. How much is it worth to me? I don’t think I could afford the true value, but maybe something is already out there that would come close.
Any thoughts or suggestions?
Regards,
Windoor
A short bio and a couple of questions. Sorry for the long post, didn’t mean to write a book.
I’ve been in and out of the game for about forty years now, thanks to my dad who introduced it to me in the early seventies. (Yes, many times I have regretted ever getting involved) He was mostly a system player, based on a flat win bet and that’s where I’m at today. I must say I have never known him to make a profit over the long haul. He has tried many handicapping systems, (as have I) and while all would get the occasional winner, none would return a profit over time. My dad is gone now, and I really miss not having anyone to talk to about a sport I’ve grown to love.
I learned early on that if one were going to make a consistent profit at horse racing, you would have to develop your own method. After years of research and trial and error, I can finally say I’m having my first winning year, regardless of what happens in the next couple of months. It was a long time coming and only delayed because I was a very slow learner when it came to patience (wait for the right opportunity) and discipline. (No side bets on exotics or horses that did not quite qualify, but were all so tempting with long odds)
To date I have been looking at just one track, and feel I can now move on to others. The question is, can I succeed at other tracks. Optimally, I would want to look at the last two years of any track I am considering. Handicap all playable races and see what the hit rate and average odd would be. Handicap is the wrong word, as I no longer do any real handicapping. I have developed a series of spot plays that is dependent on the type of race and distance. I no longer care about pace or speed numbers or (shocker) even the post time odds. I’m only interested in the win percent and average odd over every one hundred playable races. I know there can be some improvement it this area, but I am content with what I have.
I’m hesitant to even post this, as from what I have been reading here, it does seem to be an outrageous claim, but for last three months at my home track, my win percent is 47.74% at an average odd of 5.71. Longest run out is eight. I keep running totals in Excel. These are all spot plays and I am lucky to find three, sometimes four plays a day. The average odd would need to be adjusted down a half point or so, as sometimes I am required to play more that one horse to win. Another hard lesson for me.
The big question.
Is there a software program out there that would let me set up a user-defined query on a database of past performance and results for any given track to crunch the numbers for me?
I envision a form (I use post time daily) with every bit of information listed as a separate cell that can be manipulated with Boolean operators and filters. For instance, a subset that included only route races 7.5 to 9 furlongs for filly and mares at 3 years old. Maybe some drop down menus for the most common filters like distance with multi choice (All, Sprints, Routes, or user defined range). Type of surface. (All, dirt, turf, synthetic, or user defined) Class levels (claiming, allowance, handicap, stakes, or user-defined range. Especially claiming races as I treat a 5K claimer much different that one for 25K)
Basically, what I want is a system checker. Not a black box that picks winners, (though I suppose it could if set up correctly) but a program that is capable of giving some real answers as to whether or not what I’m doing can work at other tracks. Or what would happen if I wheeled my top contender (top and bottom) in and exacta when odds are over 10 to 1? Something I just started to work on, but I would need to know what the win and place percent is for these types of horses, and the average pay out of the exacta. I have never tracked my place percent, but once went 17 out 24 a few years ago. A bank breaker.
If I only wanted to play gray horses out of the post position number five, Maiden claiming for fillies and Mares at route races. How may plays would I have? How many win? What is the average odd? What is the ROI for a $2 bet? No, that’s not what I do, but the flexibility of doing something like it, is what I would like,
I am very much interested in the way the last five races were run, and at what distance and class level. I am also very interested in each call of the last five races as in position on the track and beaten lengths. These are key to me for finding contenders.
Is there anything like this out there? Or do I need to download the last two years of past performances and result charts for the track I am interested in and do it the old fashion way, one at a time. Very time consuming and if I want to change a rule, I have to start over and do it again and again. There must be an easier way.
It seems to me, anyone who is considering taking a bank (regardless of size) to play the races, would be well advised to see how well it would have worked over the last two years at any given track. It could very well save you a bundle and make the investment of such a program worth the cost. How much is it worth to me? I don’t think I could afford the true value, but maybe something is already out there that would come close.
Any thoughts or suggestions?
Regards,
Windoor