View Full Version : Beyer does it again
Two of his top last out synthetic figure horses won and lit up the board yesterday, sprint and rubber mile.
No skunking for the fig man. :lol:
rrpic6
11-08-2009, 01:17 PM
I did not get the Racing Form for Saturday, but saw the article that Beyer wrote about Zenyatta (he was not betting her based on speed figures). Just curious, what was her last race Beyer compared to those that raced on synthetics? BRIS and Equibase had her a few points below the rest. BRIS's Winners Choice sheet had her speed rating last! That is not a true rating as it is computer generated for all surfaces and distances, thrown in a mix and spit out as one figure.
RR
classhandicapper
11-08-2009, 01:19 PM
Two of his top last out synthetic figure horses won and lit up the board yesterday, sprint and rubber mile.
Yea, I noticed that too. ;)
I did not get the Racing Form for Saturday, but saw the article that Beyer wrote about Zenyatta (he was not betting her based on speed figures). Just curious, what was her last race Beyer compared to those that raced on synthetics? BRIS and Equibase had her a few points below the rest. BRIS's Winners Choice sheet had her speed rating last! That is not a true rating as it is computer generated for all surfaces and distances, thrown in a mix and spit out as one figure.
RR
Does it matter if you are wrong about a 5 to 2 shot, but right about a 20 to 1 and a 25 to 1?
Did BRIS Winners Choice have those two on top?
classhandicapper
11-08-2009, 01:32 PM
Does it matter if you are wrong about a 5 to 2 shot, but right about a 20 to 1 and a 25 to 1?
Did BRIS Winners Choice have those two on top?
Yea but I want to be right about them all. :lol:
Unfortunately, I didn't play any of the three.
I had a break even BC overall. Good day Friday and losing day yesterday.
I should have won though. I missed one horse because I wasn't able to get a bet in.
I'm just trying to have fun with all the Beyer bashers, but they are strangely quiet here.
bettheoverlay
11-08-2009, 01:37 PM
Did BRIS Winners Choice have those two on top?
Dancing on Silks had a 106 Bris last race SF, the best by 4, also better by 2 than any of Zensational's figures. Furthest Land had a 103, the best last race synthetic, Bulls Bay had a 104 last race dirt.
Pace Cap'n
11-08-2009, 01:49 PM
How nice for those who always bet "best Beyers last out".
rrpic6
11-08-2009, 01:53 PM
Did BRIS Winners Choice have those two on top?
Winners Choice has top 3 picks, class, speed, and pace plays.
Vale of York 2nd in class
Goldikova 1st in class
Furthest Land 3rd in pace
Conduit 1st in class
Coincidence, but those are the races I did best in. The Sprint and Classic were ohshit races, especially the Classic as I keyed Gio Ponti Summer Bird and Twice Over.
RR
nijinski
11-08-2009, 02:13 PM
He may want to extract the page from the DRF where he clearly headlned
"Throw out all the dirt horses and Zenyatta."
The first part we pretty much knew was a given but he blew it with Zenyatta.
BTW Readys Echo may have made the dirt lovers proud , he had a tough trip and was there late at a nice price for place .
Again, what is so bad about being wrong about a 5 to 2 shot? Ready's Echo wasn't really a dirt horse, by the way. He had run pretty well at Woodbine and won a bad race at Keeneland. He never wins on dirt.
Of course, given his no early speed at all style is that really a surprise?
WinterTriangle
11-08-2009, 02:22 PM
Two of his top last out synthetic figure horses won and lit up the board yesterday, sprint and rubber mile.
Except that statistically, there are several BC races that have *never* been won by horses where last out beyer was their career highest. And in those races, they didn't win.
But were bet down hard.
Dancing in Silks came out 2nd in my scoring system to Zensational, but I thought it was worth the odds to go against Zensational. I did not use Beyers-- but layoffs, running style, and stats that showed that horses 1, 2, and 3 were "too speedy" to win this.
Angle that worked was late runner with most wins at 6F, had raced last over a 1 mile oval (accounted for 4 winners and 10 of 12 ITM finishes historically)and had to be a So. Cal horse.
IMHO, Dancing in Silks high beyer last out was just coincidental. Because I didn't even look at it in my own scoring system.
Except that statistically, there are several BC races that have *never* been won by horses where last out beyer was their career highest. And in those races, they didn't win.
How often has that angle been encountered on poly?
WinterTriangle
11-08-2009, 05:22 PM
How often has that angle been encountered on poly?
Tom, with all due respect to your true observation, I was playing *this* race, on BC day, and those are the stats.
Dancing in Silks was the 6F specialist. That was the angle I used, didn't have to look at beyer scores.
In this case, there were just too many angles working for DIS, so I'm just unwilling to credit Beyer.
nijinski
11-08-2009, 05:41 PM
Again, what is so bad about being wrong about a 5 to 2 shot? Ready's Echo wasn't really a dirt horse, by the way. He had run pretty well at Woodbine and won a bad race at Keeneland. He never wins on dirt.
Of course, given his no early speed at all style is that really a surprise?
Across the top of page eight in the DRF leading into to his article in bold
letters said Toss her was what I commented about.
I agree Ready's Echo was not that much of a surprise , but the odds said
different .
Murph
11-08-2009, 05:44 PM
Tom, with all due respect to your true observation, I was playing *this* race, on BC day, and those are the stats.
Dancing in Silks was the 6F specialist. That was the angle I used, didn't have to look at beyer scores.
In this case, there were just too many angles working for DIS, so I'm just unwilling to credit Beyer.So big deal. You like to post heatbeats and jumps about the winners after these races. As Tom pointed out, this angle is unheard of before this weekend. Congratulations!
Tom, with all due respect to your true observation, I was playing *this* race, on BC day, and those are the stats.
Dancing in Silks was the 6F specialist. That was the angle I used, didn't have to look at beyer scores.
In this case, there were just too many angles working for DIS, so I'm just unwilling to credit Beyer.
You made it sound like a long term trend. i was point out that it has never applied to poly until this weekend, some maybe it is not applicable. IF all you can see is you don't like Beyers, then forget it - I was merely discussing what I thought YOU presented as an angle, not a castigation.
I'm just trying to have fun with all the Beyer bashers, but they are strangely quiet here.
I think his Figs are pretty good, but not on turf or polytrack, where there are obvious problems with them. But so he got two of them right this year, good on him.
What I dislike about him, are his stinging articles. It's good to take a stand, but he's too harsh and too aggressive for me; and he is usually wrong in the big races (his Big Brown article on Derby Day springs to mind).
bisket
11-08-2009, 10:51 PM
ok what about couragious cat. how can a horse beat the variant for the day by 2 4/5 seconds, and lower the 3 year best time by 1 1/5 seconds and get 99 speed fig :rolleyes: this took place at belmont on the turf. so it wasn't at mountaineer it was at one of the premier tracks in tha nation. although i'm not really complaing because it was a nice hit for me, but shows the weakness in ALL speed figs. which is they are ignored by me.
I think his Figs are pretty good, but not on turf or polytrack, where there are obvious problems with them. But so he got two of them right this year, good on him.
What I dislike about him, are his stinging articles. It's good to take a stand, but he's too harsh and too aggressive for me; and he is usually wrong in the big races (his Big Brown article on Derby Day springs to mind).
That is exactly what I like about him. We have so few real turf writers in this country willing to tackle tough issues I can live with him being wrong about a few favorites in big races.
jonnielu
11-08-2009, 11:27 PM
I'm just trying to have fun with all the Beyer bashers, but they are strangely quiet here.
Sorry, I haven't been reading the board much.
My Twitter feed:
11/7/09 SAT @ Breeders Cup - 3rd Race -Sprint - Paddock Star = #5 Warmup Star = #6
Beyer speed figures are just as flawed now as they were in the 70's, but even a busted clock is right twice a day.
Were the four horses at the wire one Beyer point away from each other??
jdl
Seabiscuit@AR
11-08-2009, 11:40 PM
If I have $2 on every top rated Beyer horse in every race in the USA for the next 12 months how many trucks will I need to carry away all the money I will win?
PaceAdvantage
11-09-2009, 12:55 AM
So, when Beyer gets it wrong like with Zenyatta, you Beyer bashers bust his chops....when the figs get it right, like what CJ pointed out...you also bust his chops...
Is it me?
Cadillakin
11-09-2009, 02:36 AM
So, when Beyer gets it wrong like with Zenyatta, you Beyer bashers bust his chops....when the figs get it right, like what CJ pointed out...you also bust his chops...
Is it me?
An expert shouldn't have any difficulty at the highest levels. But Beyer and others (like cj) failed this easy test. Zenyatta's closing times indicated extraordinary class... and an affinity to get stronger at the classic distances.. but the numbers guys couldn't grasp it. She put up numbers at the end of her races, never before seen in main track racing.. and all they could do is stare dumbly at the final time and say. "She got a 96 Beyer. She is going downhill."
As my youngest daughter would say.. DUH!
That's why they get their chops busted.. because somebody who is supposed to be an expert should have AT THE VERY LEAST given Zenyatta great respect.. and stated she is without doubt, "the one to hold." But if you read some of the stuff cj was writing, Zenyatta was not much better than Hallowed Dreams. He did everything he could in this forum to diminish her.
So, now Zenyatta looks nearly immortal and cj looks like a rookie with 15,000 posts and a tout line...
BirdstoneFTW
11-09-2009, 02:51 AM
An expert shouldn't have any difficulty at the highest levels. But Beyer and others (like cj) failed this easy test. Zenyatta's closing times indicated extraordinary class... and an affinity to get stronger at the classic distances.. but the numbers guys couldn't grasp it. She put up numbers at the end of her races, never before seen in main track racing.. and all they could do is stare dumbly at the final time and say. "She got a 96 Beyer. She is going downhill."
As my youngest daughter would say.. DUH!
That's why they get their chops busted.. because somebody who is supposed to be an expert should have AT THE VERY LEAST given Zenyatta great respect.. and stated she is without doubt, "the one to hold." But if you read some of the stuff cj was writing, Zenyatta was not much better than Hallowed Dreams. He did everything he could in this forum to diminish her.
So, now Zenyatta looks nearly immortal and cj looks like a rookie with 15,000 posts and a tout line...
Even I know CJ isn't, nor does he look like, a rookie.
Besides, I would NEVER bet Zenyatta at 5/2 going 10F and against Males for the first time among other things. I would have needed at minimum 4-1 to bet her. 5/2 might be value to you, but not to me. To each his own.
Indulto
11-09-2009, 02:58 AM
So, when Beyer gets it wrong like with Zenyatta, you Beyer bashers bust his chops....when the figs get it right, like what CJ pointed out...you also bust his chops...
Is it me?If Beyer doesn't believe what his own figures are telling him, how can we?
PaceAdvantage
11-09-2009, 03:30 AM
If Beyer doesn't believe what his own figures are telling him, how can we?I don't use Beyers, so I wouldn't know how to answer that question.
PaceAdvantage
11-09-2009, 03:33 AM
An expert shouldn't have any difficulty at the highest levels. But Beyer and others (like cj) failed this easy test. Zenyatta's closing times indicated extraordinary class... and an affinity to get stronger at the classic distances.. but the numbers guys couldn't grasp it. She put up numbers at the end of her races, never before seen in main track racing.. That's because it isn't "main track racing." It's artificial dirt racing. Which is more like turf racing than anything else, which is why you see these extraordinary closing times.
Just like a top class turf horse.
Do Beyer figures suck on turf as well? Again, I don't use Beyers, so I must defer to the experts.
jonnielu
11-09-2009, 07:20 AM
That's because it isn't "main track racing." It's artificial dirt racing. Which is more like turf racing than anything else, which is why you see these extraordinary closing times.
Just like a top class turf horse.
Do Beyer figures suck on turf as well? Again, I don't use Beyers, so I must defer to the experts.
Beyer figures suffer from the same flaw in all applications. That flaw is Beyer's assumption that variance in time would be properly assigned to the track surface.
Why do you assume that poly racing is like turf racing and that those are any different than dirt racing? You speak as if there have never been any extraordinary closing times recorded on dirt.
jdl
jdl
ok what about couragious cat. how can a horse beat the variant for the day by 2 4/5 seconds, and lower the 3 year best time by 1 1/5 seconds and get 99 speed fig :rolleyes: this took place at belmont on the turf. so it wasn't at mountaineer it was at one of the premier tracks in tha nation. although i'm not really complaing because it was a nice hit for me, but shows the weakness in ALL speed figs. which is they are ignored by me.
Because the track was lightening fast. That is what the variant is supposed to do. Look at Gio Ponti's last race - was it the slowest race ever at Belmont?
How did I fail? I thought she was a bad bet at 5-2, and still do. Lots of 5-2 shots win that I don't like.
By the way, what is my tout line?
If Beyer doesn't believe what his own figures are telling him, how can we?
How did you come up with this gem?
So, when Beyer gets it wrong like with Zenyatta, you Beyer bashers bust his chops....when the figs get it right, like what CJ pointed out...you also bust his chops...
Is it me?
Nope, this is exactly why I started this thread.
As for diminishing Zenyatta, I never had a problem with the horse, just the silly surface she races on. Dumb comments like this one:
"She put up numbers at the end of her races, never before seen in main track racing."
Of course they have never been seen before because it isn't a main track.
She would have been a nice dirt horse that won about 7 of 14 with 5 seconds or so. Just a guess of course, but that is what I would expect. But seriously, people pretend like it is dirt when it clearly is not.
I would say on synthetics, Zenyatta would be 2 to 5 to beat her. On dirt, Rachel is 2 to 5 to win. That alone says this stuff is much more about he surface than it is the horse. One surface has a long history, one is new and might not be around very long. It also is disliked by a majority of bettors and horsemen. I know which one I am going to give more attention.
Billy Brisnet had a good day too. :jump:
turfnsport
11-09-2009, 10:13 AM
If Beyer doesn't believe what his own figures are telling him, how can we?
I just don't understand posts like this. Do you honestly think the only thing Andy looks at when he plays a race is his figures?
As someone who has seen him in action, that is not the case.
turfnsport
11-09-2009, 10:14 AM
Beyer figures suffer from the same flaw in all applications. That flaw is Beyer's assumption that variance in time would be properly assigned to the track surface.
jdl
You actually buy a Daily Racing Form? I find that hard to believe.
Charlie D
11-09-2009, 10:22 AM
Just like i can't see Kempton, Wolverhampton going turf or dirt in UK, i can't see places like Keeneland, Arlington Park going back to a traditional dirt surface, so imho synthetics are here to stay.
Hopefully those horses that have run manily on one or other will be given the chance to prove they are not just one trick ponies by thier owners.
No one is installing it anymore - haven't heard of any plans. KEE might keep it, Arlington non-turf is not rally a factor in BC races. WO we can do without.
It can remain, but it will probably remain as insignificant pockets where the champion quality horse do not stop.
Charlie D
11-09-2009, 11:16 AM
Man of Iron took Marthon via Dundalk , Giants Causeway came via turf so discounting these routes to Champions day Glory could be a mistake.
The preperation towards the day may be the most important factor.
rokitman
11-09-2009, 11:34 AM
Sorry, I haven't been reading the board much.
My Twitter feed:
11/7/09 SAT @ Breeders Cup - 3rd Race -Sprint - Paddock Star = #5 Warmup Star = #6
Beyer speed figures are just as flawed now as they were in the 70's, but even a busted clock is right twice a day.
Were the four horses at the wire one Beyer point away from each other??
jdl
Never thought I'd be saying this but....that's an excellent point, Luny. :ThmbUp:
Charlie D
11-09-2009, 11:39 AM
The numbers are dervied from one particular Match Up and it would be very unusual to see those exact numbers repeated in a totally different Match Up.
castaway01
11-09-2009, 11:43 AM
An expert shouldn't have any difficulty at the highest levels. But Beyer and others (like cj) failed this easy test. Zenyatta's closing times indicated extraordinary class... and an affinity to get stronger at the classic distances.. but the numbers guys couldn't grasp it. She put up numbers at the end of her races, never before seen in main track racing.. and all they could do is stare dumbly at the final time and say. "She got a 96 Beyer. She is going downhill."
As my youngest daughter would say.. DUH!
That's why they get their chops busted.. because somebody who is supposed to be an expert should have AT THE VERY LEAST given Zenyatta great respect.. and stated she is without doubt, "the one to hold." But if you read some of the stuff cj was writing, Zenyatta was not much better than Hallowed Dreams. He did everything he could in this forum to diminish her.
So, now Zenyatta looks nearly immortal and cj looks like a rookie with 15,000 posts and a tout line...
Nonsensical post from start to finish. When you start talking about Zenyatta's main track performance, you might as well announce you haven't a clue about horse racing, especially in California. I'm sure you did great betting on all those main track horses who ran in the Breeders Cup.
And if Beyer had picked Zenyatta, you'd have said, "Big deal, he picked a favorite." And if she lost, you'd have ripped Beyer for that too.
toetoe
11-09-2009, 11:49 AM
I'm just trying to have fun with all the Beyer bashers, but they are strangely quiet here.
In our local revival of Guys and Dolls, I played Strangely Strangely.
the_fat_man
11-09-2009, 12:07 PM
And if Beyer had picked Zenyatta, you'd have said, "Big deal, he picked a favorite." And if she lost, you'd have ripped Beyer for that too.
But the point is that Beyer would never pick Zenyatta, as she was TOO SLOW. So, while someone who approaches the game without the use of figures, for example, could EASILY see that Zenyatta was a SPECIAL horse, BEYER was oblivious to it. Now, any way you spin this, this is a MAJOR ****UP. Any theory that fails to account for the OBVIOUS cases is not much use as a theory.
What I find particularly interesting is that 20 years from now when people are using BEYERS to compare horses, Indian Blessing will be considered a mUCH BETTER horse. :lol::lol: She was FAST and Zenyatta was SLOW.:rolleyes:
I also wonder how BEYER handles the figure for the CLASSIC. Does he give it a 96, as this is Zenyatta's best number? And then have to deal with all the FAST horses in the race suddenly becoming SLOW. Does he give it a higher rating? A much higher rating? If so, how does he explain a 5 year old mare that never ran more than a 96 suddendly 'IMPROVING' so much that she wins, arguably, the premier race in the world. :D:D The SLOW to FAST syndrome.
It's ridiculous shit like this that just transcends the comical. And, somehow, trying to explain it all away by contending that Z, at 5:2 wasn't a VALUE play, makes it even more ridiculous.
Charlie D
11-09-2009, 12:15 PM
Although i think the emoticons spoil it, a good post TFM imho.
toetoe
11-09-2009, 12:15 PM
So big deal. You like to post heatbeats and jumps about the winners after these races. As Tom pointed out, this angle is unheard of before this weekend. Congratulations!
Actually, I believe Steven Roman had these winners qualifying as progeny of multiple chefs de vinyl as per the Monsanto Dosage Index. I, for one, am as giddy as a schoolgirl, anticipating a third category of Eclipse Awards. :sleeping: ... uh, I mean :cool:
turfnsport
11-09-2009, 12:20 PM
I also wonder how BEYER handles the figure for the CLASSIC. Does he give it a 96, as this is Zenyatta's best number? And then have to deal with all the FAST horses in the race suddenly becoming SLOW. Does he give it a higher rating? A much higher rating? If so, how does he explain a 5 year old mare that never ran more than a 96 suddendly 'IMPROVING' so much that she wins, arguably, the premier race in the world. :D:D The SLOW to FAST syndrome.
Where are you getting 96 from? She has run 103+ Beyers 7 times.
mountainman
11-09-2009, 12:21 PM
Zenyatta's superb record strikes me as a cautonary tale concerning synthetic footing. Clearly, when a female encouraged to lag far behind soft fractions gets up to win the classic-and never really LOOKS like a loser-we can conclude once and for all that we aren't in Kansas anymore. Much of what we thought we knew about horses running around in circles(Beyer figs included) goes RIGHT out the window. But flying monkees in bellboy suits aside, the REALLY scary thing about this year's BC is that the least two (Yenyatta and Informed Decision) winners strongly refute the popular refrain that synthetics produce chaotic results. Obviously, there DOES exist some logic that governs all-weather results, but one which handicappers in general are still struggling to solve. Here's hoping synthetics soon fade away, just like Dorothy's odd dream.
the_fat_man
11-09-2009, 12:26 PM
Where are you getting 96 from? She has run 103+ Beyers 7 times.
My point made.
toetoe
11-09-2009, 12:27 PM
. And, somehow, trying to explain it all away by contending that Z, at 5:2 wasn't a VALUE play, makes it even more ridiculous.
Not sure what you are contending is being explained away, but 5/2 for Zenyatta was WAY low --- J-Lo even --- whereas 12/1 for Gio Ponti was generous.
By disregarding the prices offered, TFM, you are disavowing yourself as a value seeker, no ? Or maybe you are saying 5/2 was sufficient value ... :confused:
Show Me the Wire
11-09-2009, 12:33 PM
Zenyatta's superb record strikes me as a cautonary tale concerning synthetic footing. Clearly, when a female encouraged to lag far behind soft fractions gets up to win the classic-and never really LOOKS like a loser-we can conclude once and for all that we aren't in Kansas anymore. Much of what we thought we knew about horses running around in circles(Beyer figs included) goes RIGHT out the window. But flying monkees in bellboy suits aside, the REALLY scary thing about this year's BC is that the least two (Yenyatta and Informed Decision) winners strongly refute the popular refrain that synthetics produce chaotic results. Obviously, there DOES exist some logic that governs all-weather results, but one which handicappers in general are still struggling to solve. Here's hoping synthetics soon fade away, just like Dorothy's odd dream.
She looked like a loser, especially in the first 1/16th. Denman even said so much when he first called her dead last. You must have been watching an entirely different race than the rest of us.
I hope AWS expands to all the major racing venues. The last two B.C.s on AWS have a stellar safety record, which is especially important on championship days. Safety means no negative publicity on important race days and more importatnly for the lives of the horses.
Charlie D
11-09-2009, 12:42 PM
Been over to Chef De Race to look at Comparable chart
Zenyatta on Timeform was 128 which using the chart converts to a BSF of 111
That is a figure you'd expect to see for a horse winning G1's
Maybe the problems lie in the way the pars are compiled or the figure is arrived at.
Would be interested in hearing where Zenyatta was on CJ's figs
Some people are so proud of the the fact they they have no clue what a Beyer number is or how to use it, and yet, try to tell everyone else how bad they are. This is the most nonsensical thread in a long time. CJ, thanks for watering the "Daffy-dills"...love to watch them bloom! :lol::lol::lol:
mountainman
11-09-2009, 12:48 PM
She looked like a loser, especially in the first 1/16th.
No she didn't. In fact, the incredible confidence that Smith displayed in taking her that far back gave the whole thing a sense of inevitability. I took a strong stand againt Zenyatta saturday, and my first thought at Smith's near contemptuous display towards the colts and geldings racing far ahead was UHOHHHHHHHH.
turfnsport
11-09-2009, 12:49 PM
My point made.
No, actually Tom's point made.
the_fat_man
11-09-2009, 12:57 PM
No, actually Tom's point made.
Tom is my stalker; and now sucking my iggy. He can make whatever point he wants but I won't see it.
Moreover, Tom has spent more money than anyone else in the game on other people's programs, theories, figures, ideas, etc. It follows, then, that TOM is a FOLLOWER.
You BEYER apologists are a committed sort. Even in the face of major ****ups there are so many of you that the spin factor becomes formidable. Spin it any way you want, anyone with a clue in the game sees it for what it is.
KidCapper
11-09-2009, 01:03 PM
So Beyer may have had a bad day....or his figs don't work for you on big racing days. The guy has been making a living with the horse racing game forever. Go ahead and bash away as you head back to your 9-5 job and he handicaps for the next day. You're right he's an idiot.
mountainman
11-09-2009, 01:03 PM
I hope AWS expands to all the major racing venues.
There is a better chance that Kate Beckinsale rolls up this afternoon and asks 'Where you been all my life cocky racing forum guy?' In a sports car made from carpet fibre.
Charlie D
11-09-2009, 01:09 PM
Just used a couple of Zens races to give me a very rough idea, and looking at returns for the Lady Secret and Ladies Classic it indicates Mr Beyer should have had Zenyatta closer to the converted BSF
the_fat_man
11-09-2009, 01:09 PM
So Beyer may have had a bad day....or his figs don't work for you on big racing days. The guy has been making a living with the horse racing game forever. Go ahead and bash away as you head back to your 9-5 job and he handicaps for the next day. You're right he's an idiot.
How does this make the point, Kid? It's not that Beyer 'had a bad day', we all have bad days.
Let me present a 'gentle' example that even you might be able to grasp. Say you send someone out there to pick out the LARGEST VEHICLE on a particular block. And, you have a MINI, a Corolla, an SUV, and an 18 wheeler.
Beyer comes back and tells you that the LARGEST vehicle he saw was the MINI. Identifying the MINI but not the 18 wheeler as the LARGEST is akin to MISSING THE POINT about how good ZENYATTA is.
Now, no matter what else is factored in the equation, what I do for a living, whether Beyer makes money gambling or selling figures, whether Beyer went along with his figure publicly but had a strong opinion about Z otherwise, etc. one point is IRREFUTABLE:
This was a MAJOR ****UP (for the figure maker).
Any number of supporters can come out of the woodwork and disagree but the fact remains as it is.
the_fat_man
11-09-2009, 01:16 PM
Just used a couple of Zens races to give me a very rough idea, and looking at returns for the Lady Secret and Ladies Classic it indicates Mr Beyer should have had Zenyatta closer to the converted BSF
Charlie
Let me run this by you as you're not affected by BEYERITIS here and you'd be open to it.
Beyer can't get the number right on POLY because, even though he AD HOC tweaked his POLY number generating methodology, his approach is suited to DIRT. In other words, speed figures (of this type) are better suited to time trials. And, dirt racing is about as close as it gets in team racing to a time trial. POLY and TURF are different animals. Consider, for example, that nobody compares Tour De France winners in terms of how fast they went for a given leg (excepting the time trials). This is a ridiculous notion. Yet, this is the way horses are compared in this country. So, Beyer really shouldn't be making figures for POLY or TURF. And, I don't think there's any way for him to adjust his method (other than ad hoc) to account for them.
So it's either EGG in the FACE, occasionally, or the creation of a new method -- a new paradigm. It's not happening. At least not right away. And we're left with all the POLY whining.
Charlie D
11-09-2009, 01:17 PM
I'm not a Beyer user, but off top of my head i think the par is maybe a few ticks fast , hence the SA races are showing as not up too much.
Show Me the Wire
11-09-2009, 01:19 PM
No she didn't. In fact, the incredible confidence that Smith displayed in taking her that far back gave the whole thing a sense of inevitability. I took a strong stand againt Zenyatta saturday, and my first thought at Smith's near contemptuous display towards the colts and geldings racing far ahead was UHOHHHHHHHH.
Watch the replays she walked out of the gate and on the wrong lead and lugged out in the first 1/16th. Mike smith even acknowledged that she practically dwelt, meaning stood there and her being on the wrong lead. I don't think Mike put a strangle hold inside the gate.
KidCapper
11-09-2009, 01:23 PM
I will agree with you Fat Man about Beyer figs not being as good on poly or astro-turf or turf for that matter. But anyone who uses public speed figures as their sole handicapping tool as a fool. There is no "holy grail" of horse racing or every horse would be 6-5.
magwell
11-09-2009, 01:32 PM
I will agree with you Fat Man about Beyer figs not being as good on poly or astro-turf or turf for that matter. But anyone who uses public speed figures as their sole handicapping tool is a fool. There is no "holy grail" of horse racing or every horse would be 6-5. Kid... you cut to the chase and nailed it :cool:
If people used Beyers the way TFM thinks they do, they would be losing. But TFM has no clue whatsoever how people use them, and persists in pretending he does. Those of you who do not use them, perhaps you should all think before you post - so far, you are all as far off the mark as you can be. :lol:
But anyone who uses public speed figures as their sole handicapping tool as a fool.
This seems to be the delusion TFM suffers from. As usual, he is wrong. He and Johnny are two of a kind. If they were so good at their methods, why do they need to attack everyone else all the time? Here;s a clue for them both - many people make lots of money and never use your holy grail. To try to couple Beyer's betting in with his numbers is absurd. Beyer knows what the numbers are and he know how to handicap. No know I know of bets the top beyer every race. Although some here seem to think they do.:lol:
illinoisbred
11-09-2009, 02:07 PM
Adjusted speed figures are still alive and well. Most users know that racing is dynamic,not static. Horses progress,regress, or are at a comfortable level where they can reproduce similar efforts for several races. Most of us know what to downgrade and upgrade with figures. Like any other factor interpretation is required. Most of us didn't just fall off the turnip truck and play figures blindly
the_fat_man
11-09-2009, 02:13 PM
Most of us didn't just fall off the turnip truck and play figures blindly
But you expect your figures to, at least, be able to distinguish between the MINI and the 18 WHEELER.
That's the point. That's what all these retorts conveniently neglect to address.
Zenyatta was the 18 Wheeler in a lot full of MINI's. And BEYER missed it. :lol:
And everyone here is trying to spin it so that it comes out okay.
sure.........................:cool:
I'm done having my fun. Getting a BEYERITE to admit a flaw in the system is like getting a Jesuit to agree that the world is Copernican. But, at least, in the latter case the church had directed them to defend the Aristotelian view of the world at all cost (even when they knew better). What's the excuse of the Beyer apologists?
No flaws - the number represent what they represent - how fast a horse ran a given race, at the wire, period. The flaw is the no-nothings who have no clue what numbers to use. Many higher Beyers than Zen were thrown out of consideration completely. I had the race down to four horses, based on distance concerns and Beyers on poly or turf. Zen was one of them.
illinoisbred
11-09-2009, 02:26 PM
But you expect your figures to, at least, be able to distinguish between the MINI and the 18 WHEELER.
That's the point. That's way all these retorts conveniently neglect to address.
Zenyatta was the 18 Wheeler in a lot full of MINI's. And BEYER missed it. :lol:
And everyone here is trying to spin it so that it comes out okay.
sure.........................:cool:
I don't make figures for SoCal so going on what's provided by TSN, I thought Zenyatta was sitting on a big race. A move back toward her top off her pattern seemed likely.Off my own database, fit horses that run 6-9 points off their top after a respite are strong candidates to return to their top or run a new one.
turfnsport
11-09-2009, 02:30 PM
But you expect your figures to, at least, be able to distinguish between the MINI and the 18 WHEELER.
That's the point. That's what all these retorts conveniently neglect to address.
Zenyatta was the 18 Wheeler in a lot full of MINI's. And BEYER missed it. :lol:
And everyone here is trying to spin it so that it comes out okay.
It's ONE frkking race...Don't get your fat panties in a bunch.
I bet Gio Ponti and tossed Zenyatta myself...life goes on.
Beyer shot a blank. Big fkking deal.
He probably got well in the third race at Finger Lakes today.
PaceAdvantage
11-09-2009, 04:48 PM
But you expect your figures to, at least, be able to distinguish between the MINI and the 18 WHEELER.This is where you lose me. You and the other Zenyatta fanboys act as if she drew off and won this race by 20 lengths.
Zenyatta's best lifetime Beyer showing in Saturday's form was a 108. Gio Ponti's best Beyer showing was a 106.
Zenyatta beat Gio Ponti by ONE single solitary length.
Tell me again how off these numbers are, if we are to assume Zenyatta and Gio Ponti were both at the top of their game on Saturday (which I would guess most people would assume).
saevena
11-09-2009, 04:58 PM
CJ: Beyer does what again? Make losing selections? In the Sprint, Fatal Bullet was his choice, Dancing in Silks was not in his top 3. In the Mile, Mastercraftsman was a "standout," with Bullsbay and Furthest Land underneath in the exactas he said he would play. Maybe Beyer doesn't believe in his own figures.
the_fat_man
11-09-2009, 05:00 PM
Tell me again how off these numbers are, if we are to assume Zenyatta and Gio Ponti were both at the top of their game on Saturday (which I would guess most people would assume).
I don't know what the numbers were for any of these horses, as I NEVER look at numbers (Beyers or otherwise). I refer to them in trying to make my actual point which is that Zenyatta was giving NO respect in Beyer circles (or figure circles in general). She was always 'too slow', 'one dimensional', etc. Now, I realize it's a major step for DIRT aficionados, and once again, it seems to be the case, here and on other forums, that those who use 'Beyer' in making any argument about racing, didn't think much at all of Z. Their focus was on 'FAST' horses. Now, how exactly, once again, does one consider Indian Blessing or Thisonesforphil or Quality Road, or any number of others, to be SERIOUS horses YET considers Zenyatta to be not much at all or overrated or whatever? This is the crux of the issue. Rachel Alexandra was the darling, the FAST one, and Zenyatta was the one ducking her because she needed all these special conditions to win and even when she did win, she didn't beat much and she didn't run FAST. See how this works? This is fine if one's ONLY path to handicapping is through numbers, and, certainly, this is the predominant method these days. It's not fine, however, to anyone with even a very basic understanding of the game. To these people it's OBVIOUS that Zenyatta was a very good horse BEFORE she showed everyone else.
Say I'm new to the game and I want to look to the material/opinions of someone that I can use as a starting point. It certainly wouldn't be someone who basically is looking the way when it comes to Z. On the other hand, you really have to admire the volume of supporters that this method has. Any wonder why so many are whining about POLY?
46zilzal
11-09-2009, 05:00 PM
This is where you lose me. You and the other Zenyatta fanboys act as if she drew off and won this race by 20 lengths.
Beyers mean zilch when a horse JUST DOES WHAT IT TAKES to win. A deep closer only passes the pace thrown at her so final time (the ridiculousness of the Beyer worship) means nothing.
PaceAdvantage
11-09-2009, 05:03 PM
Beyers mean zilch when a horse JUST DOES WHAT IT TAKES to win. A deep closer only passes the pace thrown at her so final time (the ridiculousness of the Beyer worship) means nothing.Prove it.
Steve R
11-09-2009, 05:04 PM
[snip]Zenyatta beat Gio Ponti by ONE single solitary length.[snip]
Getting three pounds which, in racing secretary lingo, is three lengths at a mile and a quarter.
PaceAdvantage
11-09-2009, 05:06 PM
BTW, to prove MY point, looking at all of the Beyer figures showing in Saturday's racing form, only ONE HORSE had EVER run a Beyer figure HIGHER than Zenyatta's best of 108.
That horse was Summer Bird, who ran a 111 and a 110 in his last two in the slop.
Again...tell me how WRONG the Beyer's were going into Saturday's BC Classic.
the_fat_man
11-09-2009, 05:13 PM
BTW, to prove MY point, looking at all of the Beyer figures showing in Saturday's racing form, only ONE HORSE had EVER run a Beyer figure HIGHER than Zenyatta's best of 108.
That horse was Summer Bird, who ran a 111 and a 110 in his last two in the slop.
Again...tell me how WRONG the Beyer's were going into Saturday's BC Classic.
You're basically repeating SPIN from the other Beyerites. Once again, seeing the MINI but failing to see the 18 Wheeler is the issue. You're smart enough to understand the issue.
Steve R
11-09-2009, 05:14 PM
Beyers mean zilch when a horse JUST DOES WHAT IT TAKES to win. A deep closer only passes the pace thrown at her so final time (the ridiculousness of the Beyer worship) means nothing.
How does a horse know what it takes to win? Suppose the horse is at the 1/8-pole and three lengths behind. How does that horse (or jockey for that matter) know just how fast the leader is going to run the last furlong? If a horse can go :12.0, it can't possibly know if the horse in front is going to go in :12.1 or :13.0. Isn't the whole idea of a horse knowing what it takes to win simply an exercise in anthropomorphism and an illusion at best? Besides, aren't the horses still in the race near the wire going all out? There is no strategy at that point and there isn't a horse or jockey capable of knowing with any certainty how fast the competition will finish. Conduit beat Presious Passion because he is slightly better, not because Conduit knew Presious Passion would back up just enough.
Charlie D
11-09-2009, 05:15 PM
BTW, to prove MY point, looking at all of the Beyer figures showing in Saturday's racing form, only ONE HORSE had EVER run a Beyer figure HIGHER than Zenyatta's best of 108.
That horse was Summer Bird, who ran a 111 and a 110 in his last two in the slop.
Again...tell me how WRONG the Beyer's were going into Saturday's BC Classic.
Excellent. I'd still advise him to take another look at the pars for SA though and maybe tweak them a couple of fifths
Judge Gallivan
11-09-2009, 05:18 PM
Getting three pounds which, in racing secretary lingo, is three lengths at a mile and a quarter.
3 pounds is worth 1 length per Ragozin and Thoro-graph at 10 f.
CJ on this board believes it's even slightly less if I remember correctly.
Those people make figures for living. Who are these secretaries and why do you believe them?
46zilzal
11-09-2009, 05:20 PM
How does a horse know what it takes to win? Suppose the horse is at the 1/8-pole and three lengths behind. How does that horse (or jockey for that matter) know just how fast the leader is going to run the last furlong?
DOES WHAT IT TAKES (direct quote) has nothing to do with any KNOWING from the horse
Overlay
11-09-2009, 05:22 PM
For my purposes, it's enough to know that an average of Beyer figures taken in a uniform manner from horses' past performances over a large sample of races on a given running surface is associated with a smooth downward progression of winning probabilities from the horse that has the highest such average in a field to the horse that has the lowest.
Does it absolutely predict the one horse that will win every time? No. Is it the only factor that I use in my handicapping? Of course not. But it is one valuable piece of a multi-faceted model that tells me whether each horse in a race has a better chance of winning than its odds give it credit for, and that's a more-than-sufficient reason for me to use it.
the_fat_man
11-09-2009, 05:29 PM
I don't use Beyers, so...
Uh huh :rolleyes:
Bochall
11-09-2009, 05:33 PM
IMO, Zens Beyers were in the neighborhood of the other big figs in the race so she couldnt have been eliminated on that basis. Nor were they so good that she was a standout. Her figs were misleading (no shit!) becuase she was facing the same gals all year long. Why would she pop a 111 Beyer when all she needed to beat this same old group was a 99-103 or so ( and Smith knew that)? Why drive her to the wire? Thats not to say i trust in Beyer. His poly figs are esp questionable; heck, he's tinkered with his BL formulas already. My overall view on figs is this: i made my own for years while playing 99% on NY tracks, and the time spent making em aint worth it. Yeah, you uncover some nuggets, but the TIME spent finding them could be better spent on trainer patterns, form analysis, non math pace analysis, etc...For instance: regardless of figs, George Weaver has been a bad MF on turf at Bel and Sar for years at great odds, esp with Dogwood runners.
46zilzal
11-09-2009, 05:38 PM
TIME FORM had her ranked 145 second only to Rip Van Winkle at 147 and they had Goldikova at 149 top of the entire day. That says something that Beyer's FINAL TIME numbers missed.
46zilzal
11-09-2009, 05:44 PM
Prove it.
IF you understood Bradshaw's MATCH UP, you find the best pace a horse faced and compare to what they are likely to match up with TODAY. NONE of her races this year even challenged her early, so one had to go back to a pace more likely to what she would meet in this field and those lines were last year at Hollywood.
matching her with this field showed one thing :HER DOMINANCE late.
All the horses with lines to evaluate, had middle moves that put them on the board or at least get a piece of the purse: Gio, Summer Bird with strong middle moves
Been over to Chef De Race to look at Comparable chart
Zenyatta on Timeform was 128 which using the chart converts to a BSF of 111
That is a figure you'd expect to see for a horse winning G1's
Maybe the problems lie in the way the pars are compiled or the figure is arrived at.
Would be interested in hearing where Zenyatta was on CJ's figs
This was her last 10, most recent first:
99 105 104 104 | 104 117 108 95 110 101
She was the fastest horse on synthetics in the race. I still didn't like her at 5 to 2. I should mention though I use the Beyer scale, I don't use the artificial adjustment Beyer does to make them higher. Her 105s would be 110s on his new scale.
There is a better chance that Kate Beckinsale rolls up this afternoon and asks 'Where you been all my life cocky racing forum guy?' In a sports car made from carpet fibre.
She just whispered in my ear you have no shot.
Steve R
11-09-2009, 05:53 PM
3 pounds is worth 1 length per Ragozin and Thoro-graph at 10 f.
CJ on this board believes it's even slightly less if I remember correctly.
Those people make figures for living. Who are these secretaries and why do you believe them?
Racing secretaries are responsible for assigning weights to the horses at their track. They use the official Jockey Club Scale of Weights as the basis. It has been around for over 150 years and is applied in all weight-for-age and handicap races. And it has been for more than 100 years prior to Ragozin and the Thorograph people being born. Guidelines racing secretaries have used for decades, published in Tom Ainslie's "Complete Guide to Thoroughbred Racing", are 4 pounds = 1 length in sprints, 3 pounds = 1 length at a mile, 2 pounds = 1 lengths at 9f and 1 pound = 1 length at 10f. Those guidelines have held up for a very long time. If you prefer the Sheets-type guideline, that's your business. But if their weight algorithm is anywhere near as flawed as their algorithms for wind and lost ground, they are way out of line. In his classic computer studies (Winning at the Races), Bill Quirin observed that females on average run route race 3/5ths slower than males. Obviously this isn't always the case, but in this context, the three pound weight advantage enjoyed by Zenyatta fits the historical pattern (3 pounds = 3 lengths at 10f).
PaceAdvantage
11-09-2009, 05:55 PM
Uh huh :rolleyes:Why in the world would I use Beyers? I've written my own handicapping programs solely based on pace, and when I don't use those programs, I've been using HTR.
Your response leads me to believe you think I'm kidding. I'm not sure why you would think that...
However, I love to play devil's advocate and defend what everyone else is trashing (it's my long-since-dead dream to become a defense attorney I suppose)...thus I jump in everywhere I'm not wanted.
PaceAdvantage
11-09-2009, 05:59 PM
IF you understood Bradshaw's MATCH UP, you find the best pace a horse faced and compare to what they are likely to match up with TODAY. NONE of her races this year even challenged her early, so one had to go back to a pace more likely to what she would meet in this field and those lines were last year at Hollywood.
matching her with this field showed one thing :HER DOMINANCE late.
All the horses with lines to evaluate, had middle moves that put them on the board or at least get a piece of the purse: Gio, Summer Bird with strong middle movesHow does all this prove that Beyers mean zilch? That was what I was asking you to prove.
I proved that they were pretty much dead-on in the BC Classic, if one looked at best overall Beyer...
Zenyatta went off the 5-2 favorite. Are you saying the majority of the wagering public is now a master of the MATCH UP?
Judge Gallivan
11-09-2009, 06:01 PM
Racing secretaries are responsible for assigning weights to the horses at their track. They use the official Jockey Club Scale of Weights as the basis. It has been around for over 150 years and is applied in all weight-for-age and handicap races. And it has been for more than 100 years prior to Ragozin and the Thorograph people being born. Guidelines racing secretaries have used for decades, published in Tom Ainslie's "Complete Guide to Thoroughbred Racing", are 4 pounds = 1 length in sprints, 3 pounds = 1 length at a mile, 2 pounds = 1 lengths at 9f and 1 pound = 1 length at 10f. Those guidelines have held up for a very long time. If you prefer the Sheets-type guideline, that's your business. But if their weight algorithm is anywhere near as flawed as their algorithms for wind and lost ground, they are way out of line. In his classic computer studies (Winning at the Races), Bill Quirin observed that females on average run route race 3/5ths slower than males. Obviously this isn't always the case, but in this context, the three pound weight advantage enjoyed by Zenyatta fits the historical pattern (3 pounds = 3 lengths at 10f).
I'll choose to believe Sheets / Thoro-graph weight guideline over what some guy pulled out of his ass 150 years ago since I don't believe that Mine That Bird would have beaten Rachel Alexandra 4 1/2 lengths in Preakness at equal weight.
Call me a fool if you will.
46zilzal
11-09-2009, 06:02 PM
FINAL time handicapping = Beyer numbers.
If the pace is slow, the final time will be slow even though there may have been a monster move. BIG moves vs slow paces are better than the Beyer would report OVER AND OVER
46zilzal
11-09-2009, 06:03 PM
Zenyatta went off the 5-2 favorite. Are you saying the majority of the wagering public is now a master of the MATCH UP?
HANDICAPPING a race is, was, and will always BE mutually exclusive of the way it is wagered on
Charlie D
11-09-2009, 06:03 PM
Thanks CJ
Intersting stuff regarding new scale.
PaceAdvantage
11-09-2009, 06:09 PM
HANDICAPPING a race is, was, and will always BE mutually exclusive of the way it is wagered onBut you bring the MATCH UP into this as if that's the only way one could come up with Zenyatta!
After I point out she went off the FAVORITE...where does that lead our discussion?
Who needs the MATCH UP when the Beyer Figs would have put you on Zenyatta just as easily, if not more so?
the_fat_man
11-09-2009, 06:12 PM
Who needs the MATCH UP when the Beyer Figs would have put you on Zenyatta just as easily, if not more so?
You don't need the Match Up or Beyer figs to come up with Z. That's the point (one of them, anyway), she's OBVIOUS.
Since you're crunching Beyers, and thus have an unfair advantage, post the Beyers of the horses in the Classic.
46zilzal
11-09-2009, 06:16 PM
But you bring the MATCH UP into this as if that's the only way one could come up with Zenyatta!
After I point out she went off the FAVORITE...where does that lead our discussion?
Who needs the MATCH UP when the Beyer Figs would have put you on Zenyatta just as easily, if not more so?
Not at all
Lots of people were privy to the TIMEFORM analysis of the race and all manner of other sources
turfnsport
11-09-2009, 06:32 PM
The 145 is her overall rating..note her last two Timeform ratings were lower, just like her Beyers, just like her BRIS figs, just like her Equibase figs, blah blah blah..
The 145 is her overall rating..note her last two Timeform ratings were lower, just like her Beyers, just like her BRIS figs, just like her Equibase figs, blah blah blah..
Don't let facts get in the way of a good rant!
46zilzal
11-09-2009, 06:37 PM
The 145 is her overall rating..note her last two Timeform ratings were lower, just like her Beyers, just like her BRIS figs, just like her Equibase figs, blah blah blah..
See that little PLUS sign next to several of those numbers? That means the evaluation was BETTER than the number itself
turfnsport
11-09-2009, 06:44 PM
See that little PLUS sign next to several of those numbers? That means the evaluation was BETTER than the number itself
Yeah I have used Timeform for years...I know exactly what it means.
Andy's "+" on his keyboard snapped off back in '93.
PaceAdvantage
11-09-2009, 06:50 PM
Since you're crunching Beyers, and thus have an unfair advantage, post the Beyers of the horses in the Classic.I'm not crunching anything...I happen to have saved Saturday's DRF....
I've already posted all of the relevant Beyer facts. If you'd like to twist them another way, have at it...
the_fat_man
11-09-2009, 06:53 PM
I'm not crunching anything...I happen to have saved Saturday's DRF....
I've already posted all of the relevant Beyer facts. If you'd like to twist them another way, have at it...
There's no reason for me to twist anything. Nothing you offered works against my original point.
Excellent. I'd still advise him to take another look at the pars for SA though and maybe tweak them a couple of fifths
He doesn't use pars. He projects.
There's no reason for me to twist anything. Nothing you offered works against my original point.
The point that you have no clue what you are talking about? That was pretty obvious from the get go.:lol:
I'm not crunching anything...I happen to have saved Saturday's DRF....
I've already posted all of the relevant Beyer facts. If you'd like to twist them another way, have at it...
If you use CJ's conversion for Beyers from dirt to poly, to either adjust hers or the dirt contenders, she is even better.
Charlie D
11-09-2009, 08:00 PM
He doesn't use pars. He projects.
Really, i must read his book as that was not my understanding.
bisket
11-09-2009, 08:12 PM
I'M GONNA LET EVERYONE IN ON A LITTLE SECRET THAT DA BISKET HAS TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN REFERANCE TO ANY SPEED FIGS ON SANTA ANITA'S TRACK. BACK WHEN POLY WAS INSTALLED AT ALL THE CALIFORNIA TRACKS DRF AND EQUIBASE WIPED THE SLATE CLEAN AS FAR TRACK RECORDS AND 3 YEAR BEST TIMES ETC. SO SANTA ANITA WENT THROUGH THERE FIRST MEET AT OAKTREE AND TIMES WERE STARTED TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT ETC.. WELL IF YOU RECALL WHEN THE WINTER MEET BEGAN IT RAINED ALOT LIKE IT USUALLY DOES, AND THE SURFACE WAS DESTROYED. IF YOU RECALL THEY ATTEMPTED TO SEAL THE TRACK LIKE THEY DO ON DIRT SURFACES, AND THE RESULT WAS A SUPER HIGHWAY. IF YOU RECALL THE WORLD RECORD WAS SET FOR 6 FURLONGS BY THAT 3 YEAR OLD. WELL IN MARCH OF THAT YEAR THE SURFACE THAT IS NOW ON SANTA ANITA'S TRACK WAS INSTALLED. ALL I REPEAT ALL THE THREE YEAR BEST TIMES THAT VARIANTS AND ALL SPEED FIGS TAKE INTO ACCOUNT WERE NOT RESET. SO NOW ALL THE RACES THAT ARE NOW BEING RUN ARE COMPARED TO THAT 2 MONTH PERIOD WHEN TIMES WERE RIDICULOUSLY FAST. THIS IS WHY SPEED FIGS AT SANTA ANITA ARE WORTHLESS. NOW THAT THE CUP IS OVER I'LL LET THE CAT OUT OF THE BAG :D
Charlie D
11-09-2009, 08:15 PM
So Beyer does use Pars then???
bisket
11-09-2009, 08:18 PM
YES!!!!!!!!! AND TIMES ARE BEING COMPARED TO A SURFACE THAT IS NOWHERE NEAR THE SAME SURFACE CURRENTLY ON THE TRACK!!!!!!!!! SO CJ'S FIGS ARE JUST AS SCREWED UP AS BEYERS. I'M GONNA ENJOY THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Beyer dosen't use the three year best.
In My $50,000 Year at the Races he outlines his projection method.
Pars are not used that often.
He could be doing things differently now, years later.
proximity
11-09-2009, 08:20 PM
He doesn't use pars. He projects.
he should be making pars for all of these new tracks so he can see how exactly the relationships between similar classes of horses differ at each of these tracks.... and this would help him develop the correct speed charts for each track..... instead of just saying that 1/5 second is worth exactly 10% more than on dirt at both turfway and oak tree.
bisket
11-09-2009, 08:20 PM
HE USES THEM
YES!!!!!!!!! AND TIMES ARE BEING COMPARED TO A SURFACE THAT IS NOWHERE NEAR THE SAME SURFACE CURRENTLY ON THE TRACK!!!!!!!!! SO CJ'S FIGS ARE JUST AS SCREWED UP AS BEYERS. I'M GONNA ENJOY THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
You are full of shot. You have no clue what CJ does and I can tell, you ain't close, pal, and his figs are VERY good on poly. Try thinking before posting stupid crap in capitals - you that proud of your ignorance? Take out an ad in the Post - they need the business. You might qualify for a full pager.
bisket
11-09-2009, 08:25 PM
i'm sure if you use them their excellent
Charlie D
11-09-2009, 08:31 PM
BEYER SPEED PARS
Pars are average times, the typical final times a particular class of horse runs a specific distance at a specific racetrack, such as $20,000 claiming horses running six furlongs at Santa Anita.
http://www.turfpedia.com/techniques/
Is the above incorrect??
Bisket......What is you major malfunction?
I got two words for you.....
Shift key.
YES!!!!!!!!! AND TIMES ARE BEING COMPARED TO A SURFACE THAT IS NOWHERE NEAR THE SAME SURFACE CURRENTLY ON THE TRACK!!!!!!!!! SO CJ'S FIGS ARE JUST AS SCREWED UP AS BEYERS. I'M GONNA ENJOY THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I don't mind people knocking my figures or questioning them. But you are just making shit up now.
http://www.turfpedia.com/techniques/
Is the above incorrect??
Beyer started out making figures using pars. You have to start somewhere. However, that was many, many years ago and I'm sure he has been using the projection method for a long time now. BISKET has no idea what he is talking about. He is discussing DRF speed ratings which have absolutely nothing to do with Beyer figures.
http://www.turfpedia.com/techniques/
Is the above incorrect??
Those are pars Quinn made, not Beyer.
Charlie D
11-09-2009, 08:37 PM
What is he projecting from??
bisket
11-09-2009, 08:39 PM
take a look at all the daily times for the time period i just laid out. i'm quite sure i know what i'm talking about, and i'am 100% sure i'm correct. if your basing any figs at santa anita on beyer figs your screwed. along with all the rest of the handicappers using them
Charlie D
11-09-2009, 08:40 PM
The process used to create Beyer's speed figures involves creating par times for races. If a large number of $10,000 claiming races at different tracks are compiled and it is determined that the average winning time at six furlongs is 1:12 and 1:45 for 1 1/16 mile races, then it can be assumed that those two times would have the same speed rating. Lets say they earn a speed rating of 70. The other piece of the puzzle is to look at track variants. Some tracks are inherently fast or slow. Keeneland is a track that is notoriously fast, so a $10,000 claimer that runs 6 furlongs in 1:10 at Keeneland would have to have his figure adjusted downward to compensate for the fast track he is running on. Likewise, a horse running on a slow track would have his figure raised in compensation. In addition to adjusting figures for fast and slow tracks, daily variants are also used to account for the daily changes in the racing surface.
http://www.horsehats.com/Beyer-Speed-Figures.html
:confused: of Gods County
So what the person describes above is not Beyer methodology???
bisket
11-09-2009, 08:40 PM
Beyer started out making figures using pars. You have to start somewhere. However, that was many, many years ago and I'm sure he has been using the projection method for a long time now. BISKET has no idea what he is talking about. He is discussing DRF speed ratings which have absolutely nothing to do with Beyer figures.
beyer uses these also. they are one component of his process
proximity
11-09-2009, 08:41 PM
What is he projecting from??
i'll have to dust off my copy of beyer on speed, but if i recall correctly it was tarot cards and tea leaves!!:)
Charlie D
11-09-2009, 08:42 PM
I have Beyer on Speed and cannot remember him mentioning tarot cards or tea leaves :)
http://www.horsehats.com/Beyer-Speed-Figures.html
:confused: of Gods County
So what the person describes above is not Beyer methodology???
They are pulling things out of his books from many years ago. If you don't believe the answers you get, why keep asking? I have no special devotion to Beyer.
In his books he explains that in the beginning, yes, he uses pars. But once he has established a baseline for a circuit he uses the projection method. Given his access to a massive DRF database and using computers, the par method isn't needed any longer. It also wouldn't work.
Charlie D
11-09-2009, 08:46 PM
I didn't say i didn't believe you or Tom, i did however indicated confused state via an emoticon.
I didn't say i didn't believe you or Tom, i did however indicated confused state via an emoticon.
My fault, shouldn't have jumped to that conclusion. The stuff on the web is outdated and or misinformed...maybe bisket wrote it?
He projects from the previous form of the horses that ran well and are consistent for the most part.
As for bisket, I don't base my figures on Beyers, I just use the same scale. (although, ironically, I don't on synthetics any longer since he switched)
The 3 year times you mention have absolutely nothing to do with Beyers. When Turfway went to polytrack, he had figures the next day. He didn't need any pars or 3 year best times, and neither would any competent figure maker.
Charlie D
11-09-2009, 08:54 PM
Ahhh!!! i'm with you now
He is using what we call "yardstick" handicapping, a technique used by the Official handicapper in UK and Racing Post.
jonnielu
11-09-2009, 08:56 PM
If people used Beyers the way TFM thinks they do, they would be losing. But TFM has no clue whatsoever how people use them, and persists in pretending he does. Those of you who do not use them, perhaps you should all think before you post - so far, you are all as far off the mark as you can be. :lol:
This seems to be the delusion TFM suffers from. As usual, he is wrong. He and Johnny are two of a kind. If they were so good at their methods, why do they need to attack everyone else all the time? Here;s a clue for them both - many people make lots of money and never use your holy grail. To try to couple Beyer's betting in with his numbers is absurd. Beyer knows what the numbers are and he know how to handicap. No know I know of bets the top beyer every race. Although some here seem to think they do.:lol:
Actually, I don't attack anybody. You just take it as an attack if I say that Beyers figures are flawed by his monumental arrogance.
I find it interesting when the defenders get going on the defense that the numbers don't mean anything anyway, so what's the harm. And I really try to stay out of these discussions, but CJ really waved some irresistible bait for me.
Really, it is stupid for me to wade in with criticism, because that naturally invites me to make my case, and I really don't want to do that. You probably realize that I've backed away from a post or two for that reason, but the truth is that without the popularity of speed handicapping, payoffs in the $50 range might be much fewer and farther between.
It would probably be more appropriate for me to post an open letter of thanks for the blessings that BSF's have created for me in the form higher mutuels. The truth is that if so many didn't use the BSF's, so many horses might not have paid quite high enough to cause a good Beyer dope rant, and nothing is quite as entertaining as that.
jdl
Is there a full moon tonight?
PaceAdvantage
11-09-2009, 09:04 PM
if your basing any figs at santa anita on beyer figs your screwed. along with all the rest of the handicappers using themIf you're talking about the old-fashioned DRF speed figs that were in the form before Beyers, then you might be correct...not sure 'cause I don't use them and I don't really care.
But if you think this also applies to Beyer speed figures or any of the other private, highly crafted speed and pace figures lurking around out there, you couldn't be more wrong...and that's just a fact, not a flame...
jonnielu
11-09-2009, 09:04 PM
Is there a full moon tonight?
When the moon hits you eye like a big pizza pie.... it's amore! :kiss:
jdl
Where is that scotch?
Good nite.
turfnsport
11-09-2009, 09:14 PM
Actually, I don't attack anybody. You just take it as an attack if I say that Beyers figures are flawed by his monumental arrogance.
Really, it is stupid for me to wade in with criticism, because that naturally invites me to make my case, and I really don't want to do that.
jdl
"flawed by his monumental arrogance."
****ing priceless.
the_fat_man
11-09-2009, 09:24 PM
Right. It's common knowledge that I can't pick winners. I mean, if you were to do a search on this or other forums, you'd NEVER find me picking one. :rolleyes: And I certainly don't pick LONGSHOTS; only those using BEYERS do that.
I'm just bitter 'cause everyone else is winning and I'm losing. :rolleyes:
This from someone who had no problem jumping into any number of many selection threads and making some money with the Fat Man. And thanking me afterwards.
uh huh
bisket
11-09-2009, 09:32 PM
If you're talking about the old-fashioned DRF speed figs that were in the form before Beyers, then you might be correct...not sure 'cause I don't use them and I don't really care.
But if you think this also applies to Beyer speed figures or any of the other private, highly crafted speed and pace figures lurking around out there, you couldn't be more wrong...and that's just a fact, not a flame...
look i'm not trying to discredit anyone, and i'm sure cj will realize eventually what i'm talking about is correct. i'm sure he puts lots of time and effort, and takes pride in what he's doing. i was on another board when this period of time took place. i had this exact same argument with others that live and die by the calculator. i've been killing synthetics ever since. that january and februaury :jump: , and have been getting excellant odds on my plays. i don't use figs either. i really could not believe when they put in that new surface they didn't reset all the 3 year times and track records.
PaceAdvantage
11-09-2009, 09:34 PM
look i'm not trying to discredit anyone, and i'm sure cj will realize eventually what i'm talking about is correct. i'm sure he puts lots of time and effort, and takes pride in what he's doing. i was on another board when this period of time took place. i had this exact same argument with others that live and die by the calculator. i've been killing synthetics ever since. that january and februaury :jump: , and have been getting excellant odds on my plays. i don't use figs either. i really could not believe when they put in that new surface they didn't reset all the 3 year times and track records.Beyer doesn't use 3 year times and track records. And neither does any other reputable figure maker...the only speed figures that use 3 year times and track records are the old DRF-style speed figures and variants...the ones immediately to the right of the odds on a horse's past performance line....
Enough with this nonsense....
speed
11-09-2009, 09:35 PM
Is there a way to mute posters?
Thank You
bisket
11-09-2009, 09:45 PM
all speed figs base their times on some kind of sliding scale to determine the speed of the track every day. how can you do this without using the fastest times from the past. all figurese come back to the time of each race. well these races took place on a totally different surface, which speed figs from those particular days were based on. when sa pulled up the track and put in a much slower surface all the horse were graded against the faster surface. so they were all slow from that time on speed figure wise. whether they used the 3 year chart or not is TOTALLY BESIDES THE POINT. which is why everyone who does speed figs is now reworking them. i'm sure its tedious and frustrating, and then some goof named bisket comes along and pulls the rug out from underneath them. :p
illinoisbred
11-09-2009, 09:56 PM
all speed figs base their times on some kind of sliding scale to determine the speed of the track every day. how can you do this without using the fastest times from the past. all figurese come back to the time of each race. well these races took place on a totally different surface, which speed figs from those particular days were based on. when sa pulled up the track and put in a much slower surface all the horse were graded against the faster surface. so they were all slow from that time on speed figure wise. whether they used the 3 year chart or not is TOTALLY BESIDES THE POINT. which is why everyone who does speed figs is now reworking them. i'm sure its tedious and frustrating, and then some goof named bisket comes along and pulls the rug out from underneath them. :p
Bisket, you're dead wrong and I don't think you' will ever get it. Adjusted speed figures are not based or measured off the fastest times ever run on a surface. If one uses par times they are based on a norm or average time for a given class. The deviation from that norm determines the variant.
bisket
11-09-2009, 10:01 PM
Bisket, you're dead wrong and I don't think you' will ever get it. Adjusted speed figures are not based or measured off the fastest times ever run on a surface. If one uses par times they are based on a norm or average time for a given class. The deviation from that norm determines the variant.
i think what i just said whizzed right on by you. i just said it doesn't matter if they go by that or not!! it still affects the figures. read my post again. 3:30 comes early; nite all.
illinoisbred
11-09-2009, 10:06 PM
i think what i just said whizzed right on by you. i just said it doesn't matter if they go by that or not!! it still affects the figures. read my post again. 3:30 comes early; nite all.
No,you're missing the point, an accurate variant settles the matter. I get up at 2:30 but its difficult to click-off from here.
proximity
11-09-2009, 10:20 PM
and then some goof named bisket comes along and pulls the rug out from underneath them. :p
alas, the beyer rug is no longer tying the room together!!:lol:
Judge Gallivan
11-09-2009, 10:59 PM
Racing secretaries are responsible for assigning weights to the horses at their track. They use the official Jockey Club Scale of Weights as the basis. It has been around for over 150 years and is applied in all weight-for-age and handicap races. And it has been for more than 100 years prior to Ragozin and the Thorograph people being born. Guidelines racing secretaries have used for decades, published in Tom Ainslie's "Complete Guide to Thoroughbred Racing", are 4 pounds = 1 length in sprints, 3 pounds = 1 length at a mile, 2 pounds = 1 lengths at 9f and 1 pound = 1 length at 10f. Those guidelines have held up for a very long time. If you prefer the Sheets-type guideline, that's your business. But if their weight algorithm is anywhere near as flawed as their algorithms for wind and lost ground, they are way out of line. In his classic computer studies (Winning at the Races), Bill Quirin observed that females on average run route race 3/5ths slower than males. Obviously this isn't always the case, but in this context, the three pound weight advantage enjoyed by Zenyatta fits the historical pattern (3 pounds = 3 lengths at 10f).
Steve,
how much does 1 pound equal at 12f according to secretaries?
I'm asking because Sea The Stars beat Conduit 2 1/2 lengths in the Arc while carrying 8 pounds less.
So if we assume that 1 pound = 1 length at 12 f (the same as at 10f) then Conduit is 5 1/2 lengths better than Sea The Stars.
I'm scared to think how much better Conduit is if 1 pound equals more than 1 length at 12f.
And it's not a fluke: At Sandown in the Coral - Eclipse Conduit lost by 5 1/2 lengths to Sea The Stars at 10 furlongs while carrying 11 pounds more. So Conduit really is 5 1/2 lengths better than Sea The Stars.
If the 150-year old rule is correct we have the real HOY - and that can only be Conduit.
WinterTriangle
11-10-2009, 01:12 AM
No {one I} I know of bets the top beyer every race. Although some here seem to think they do.:lol:
I agree, but that's hard to believe when I go to forums and see topics that start out with "beyer does it again", then gives us one day example. :rolleyes:
I do "use" them, but mostly for progressions, from sprint to route, etc. "Last out" is usually a bad sign to me, esp. since I won't play chalk, and this is always a great one to bet against (and I do) since beyer zombies/newbies who *only* use that will bet down that horse to 2-5. :)
Times like that, I really APPRECIATE Mr. Beyer. :)
WinterTriangle
11-10-2009, 01:41 AM
If the 150-year old rule is correct we have the real HOY - and that can only be Conduit.
So, lengths beaten should be the basis of HOY?
I hope racing doesn't reduce itself to that.
It tells nothing about the talent of horses to overcome adversity, obstacles, bad breaks, stumbles, strategic moves, stretch battles, etc. STS race was brilliant. So was Zenyatta's. And not about "lengths".
If not, why not just say that "winning" isn't enough. for a win to be considered a win, it has to be by x amount of lengths. The wire doesn't count as the finish line.
Judge Gallivan
11-10-2009, 04:49 AM
So, lengths beaten should be the basis of HOY?
I hope racing doesn't reduce itself to that.
It tells nothing about the talent of horses to overcome adversity, obstacles, bad breaks, stumbles, strategic moves, stretch battles, etc. STS race was brilliant. So was Zenyatta's. And not about "lengths".
If not, why not just say that "winning" isn't enough. for a win to be considered a win, it has to be by x amount of lengths. The wire doesn't count as the finish line.
I was joking. I just wanted to prove that the theory was wrong and wrong by a considerable margin.
Anybody who watched those two horses run knows that they are not even close on the ability. And if the theory says that a wrong horse is better and better by 5 1/2 lengths it has to be thrown away. Even if it is 150 years old.
Judge Gallivan
11-10-2009, 05:11 AM
In his classic computer studies (Winning at the Races), Bill Quirin observed that females on average run route race 3/5ths slower than males. Obviously this isn't always the case, but in this context, the three pound weight advantage enjoyed by Zenyatta fits the historical pattern (3 pounds = 3 lengths at 10f).
And my final point on the subject, I promise.
The fact that females are 3/5 slower than males at routes doesn't prove that the theory is right.
Only if after getting 3 pounds they ran the same times as males the theory would be proven.
tucker6
11-10-2009, 11:27 AM
So what was Zenyatta's Beyer number for the Classic??
Quagmire
11-10-2009, 11:31 AM
So what was Zenyatta's Beyer number for the Classic??
112
mountainman
11-10-2009, 11:44 AM
Watch the replays she walked out of the gate and on the wrong lead and lugged out in the first 1/16th. Mike smith even acknowledged that she practically dwelt, meaning stood there and her being on the wrong lead. I don't think Mike put a strangle hold inside the gate.
Lots of horses break on the left lead. Some even prefer to and thus set themselves that way in the starting gate. And poor start or not, Smith obviously intended for Zenyatta to lope along and trail early. Frankly, I was astonished at how much more confidence Smith showed in his mount than did the wiseguys (myself included) who were chomping at the bit to bet againt her.
WinterTriangle
11-10-2009, 01:32 PM
Just looking at these now:
Bruno rocked it ("My best asset I bring to you is my eyes and what I see.")
On Friday, he gave out the winner of all 8 races........plus!
for Race 1 (winner +show), Race 2-winner, Race 3 (winner+ exacat + trifecta), Race 4 (winner), Race 5 (winner + exacta), Race 6 (winner + exacta), Race 7 (winner + exacta) AND Race 8 (winner + exacta).
On Saturday:
Classic: He gave out Zenyatta for the win. (His workout reports pretty much made her a foregone conclusion, in every workout she *inhaled* ground, and inhaled workmate.)
(No less than 3 other workout / clocker people gave Zenyatta an A).
also, Race 1: winner, exacta
(I didn't see the rest of his picks. Don't know if they were available on Sat, can't find them now).
I like the workout guys. Larry Zap loved Vale of York. I never read the rest of his reports, ran out of time before the races.
Mazur and Mallett et. al gave cogent reasons why a horse like Zensational wouldn't win, (without actually naming him), along with tons of other vital information that turned out to be spot on. I prefer to have analysis that allows me to handicap all the races completely. Such as explanations on how speed plays on SA. And last out beyers didn't work on Friday, what horses get hot, etc. they snoop around the track and know stuff.
Basically, if you studied the stretch calls from last year, you were able to find the exotics for this year. and how dirt runners fare, what the % of horses took the lead in the stretch and won, etc.
I learned so much about synth handicapping from buying Crushing the Cup, I could not be more grateful to these guys!!!
So, what I say is this, esp. for people who don't know synth, or even newbies to any sort of racing: if you are somebody who wants to learn something, AND win races, I'd much rather use this stuff.
Beyer speeds may win you a few races, but won't help you understand or learn the track...... or synth. (Speaking to fledglings here: Using other people's picks, or figures, to win races, of course, is not the way to learn anything anyway...you have to be able to do it yourself. If you are able to do this, then dancing in silks would come out quite high in your analysis, for instance. But if you follow other people's picks you will never find the longshots --------if they don't find them. :)
lamboguy
11-10-2009, 01:42 PM
Lots of horses break on the left lead. Some even prefer to and thus set themselves that way in the starting gate. And poor start or not, Smith obviously intended for Zenyatta to lope along and trail early. Frankly, I was astonished at how much more confidence Smith showed in his mount than did the wiseguys (myself included) who were chomping at the bit to bet againt her.hey you should have called me about the Z-lady, i would have cleared the whole matter up for you!!
Cardus
11-10-2009, 01:55 PM
I think his Figs are pretty good, but not on turf or polytrack, where there are obvious problems with them. But so he got two of them right this year, good on him.
What I dislike about him, are his stinging articles. It's good to take a stand, but he's too harsh and too aggressive for me; and he is usually wrong in the big races (his Big Brown article on Derby Day springs to mind).
First of all, most of his work is properly described as "columns," not articles.
More importantly, his "stinging" writing is precisely why he is a fantastic columnist. When people read his columns, they take a side: either for or against.
A columnist who doesn't evoke reaction is not a columnist for long.
Cardus
11-10-2009, 01:58 PM
Just looking at these now:
Bruno rocked it ("My best asset I bring to you is my eyes and what I see.")
On Friday, he gave out the winner of all 8 races........plus!
for Race 1 (winner +show), Race 2-winner, Race 3 (winner+ exacat + trifecta), Race 4 (winner), Race 5 (winner + exacta), Race 6 (winner + exacta), Race 7 (winner + exacta) AND Race 8 (winner + exacta).
On Saturday:
Classic: He gave out Zenyatta for the win. (His workout reports pretty much made her a foregone conclusion, in every workout she *inhaled* ground, and inhaled workmate.)
(No less than 3 other workout / clocker people gave Zenyatta an A).
also, Race 1: winner, exacta
(I didn't see the rest of his picks. Don't know if they were available on Sat, can't find them now).
I like the workout guys. Larry Zap loved Vale of York. I never read the rest of his reports, ran out of time before the races.
Mazur and Mallett et. al gave cogent reasons why a horse like Zensational wouldn't win, (without actually naming him), along with tons of other vital information that turned out to be spot on. I prefer to have analysis that allows me to handicap all the races completely. Such as explanations on how speed plays on SA. And last out beyers didn't work on Friday, what horses get hot, etc. they snoop around the track and know stuff.
Basically, if you studied the stretch calls from last year, you were able to find the exotics for this year. and how dirt runners fare, what the % of horses took the lead in the stretch and won, etc.
I learned so much about synth handicapping from buying Crushing the Cup, I could not be more grateful to these guys!!!
So, what I say is this, esp. for people who don't know synth, or even newbies to any sort of racing: if you are somebody who wants to learn something, AND win races, I'd much rather use this stuff.
Beyer speeds may win you a few races, but won't help you understand or learn the track...... or synth. (Speaking to fledglings here: Using other people's picks, or figures, to win races, of course, is not the way to learn anything anyway...you have to be able to do it yourself. If you are able to do this, then dancing in silks would come out quite high in your analysis, for instance. But if you follow other people's picks you will never find the longshots --------if they don't find them. :)
A friend of mine pulled up De Julio's Friday selections as we watched Friday's races. Bruno had the first four or five winners at Oak Tree on Friday.
Show Me the Wire
11-10-2009, 02:15 PM
Lots of horses break on the left lead. Some even prefer to and thus set themselves that way in the starting gate. And poor start or not, Smith obviously intended for Zenyatta to lope along and trail early. Frankly, I was astonished at how much more confidence Smith showed in his mount than did the wiseguys (myself included) who were chomping at the bit to bet againt her.
Yes lots of horses break on the wrong lead and they are not undefeated. Do other horses usually win 14 races in a row? Using other horses as a standard is exercise in folly.
The question is does Zenyatta usually break on the wrong lead? No, it is unusual for her. Does she usually walk out of the gate? No. Does it usually take her a 1/4 of the race to look comfortable in her stride? No.
It is not about what other horses do or do not do, it is about what this specific horse usually does.
If you want to make fallacious comparisons to make you feel better, great for you. If you want to thnk Smith intentionally put that ride on her, again I say great for you.
I agree Smith showed great confidence in Zenyatta because he did not panic due to the poor start and let Zenyatta find herself, and then he gave a magnificant ride. You know why, because Smith knows what Steve R. posted, in another thread, Zenyatta runs her winning race without regard to the pace or set-up. Yes, Smith rode Zenyatta with confidence, no doubt about it.
PaceAdvantage
11-10-2009, 05:17 PM
You know why, because Smith knows what Steve R. posted, in another thread, Zenyatta runs her winning race without regard to the pace or set-up.Because of the surface over which she runs.
Show Me the Wire
11-10-2009, 05:26 PM
Because of the surface over which she runs.
You really think that? I really hope you do not believe any surface itself lets any horse, especially a great race mare win regrdless of pace or set-up.
If that was true, we would have tons of undefeated horses on grass or dirt.
DeanT
11-10-2009, 05:29 PM
Because of the surface over which she runs.
Does that apply here as well? I have read this a few times now. This race looks about like any of her races to me on the poly.
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Does that apply here as well? I have read this a few times now. This race looks about like any of her races to me on the poly.
She had a favorable set up that day. I'm not saying she needed it, that was a pretty weak group. I had a pace figure of 108 for the race, and I believe a 105 speed figure for Zenyatta. The 108 doesn't seem overly fast, and it isn't, but for Ginger Punch and the others in that race it was very fast.
bisket
11-10-2009, 06:18 PM
47 1/5 fast for ginger? huh no!!
DeanT
11-10-2009, 06:30 PM
She had a favorable set up that day. I'm not saying she needed it, that was a pretty weak group. I had a pace figure of 108 for the race, and I believe a 105 speed figure for Zenyatta. The 108 doesn't seem overly fast, and it isn't, but for Ginger Punch and the others in that race it was very fast.
I thought that was an impressive performance for that track. I had a negative model on her there and if I remember correctly Jeff's Cpace fig performed well for routes and against closers that meet. I thought she was done. But I aint a great horseplayer, so that is something to consider. I think I lost some money that meet.
47 1/5 fast for ginger? huh no!!
As you have already demonstrated, you know very little about figures and variants.
I thought that was an impressive performance for that track. I had a negative model on her there and if I remember correctly Jeff's Cpace fig performed well for routes and against closers that meet. I thought she was done. But I aint a great horseplayer, so that is something to consider. I think I lost some money that meet.
It was an impressive performance, and I said so at the time. But it isn't the Ruffian type race some would have you believe it was. With a decent pace, she ran a 105 Beyer, nothing I haven't seen a thousand times before on dirt.
bisket
11-10-2009, 06:50 PM
yup its not a figure or variant. its the actual time she ran the 1/2. its the same time she ran the 1/2 in just about every race she won
bisket
11-10-2009, 06:52 PM
I thought that was an impressive performance for that track. I had a negative model on her there and if I remember correctly Jeff's Cpace fig performed well for routes and against closers that meet. I thought she was done. But I aint a great horseplayer, so that is something to consider. I think I lost some money that meet.
i guess cj didn't have a negative model. how one only knows. thats the time ginger ran for her 1/2 mile in all her winning races.
bisket
11-10-2009, 07:26 PM
cup distaff 2007 47 even- 1/2 111- 3/4
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ngIsAeMKZMI
48 second 1/2 and she lost the beldame. 111 3/5 slower pace and ginger loses
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H8I6xP8xbDs&feature=PlayList&p=1F7C73E79C93B0A2&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=12
49 second 1/2 she wins, but this isn't much of a field
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U8pmuaiMoo8&feature=PlayList&p=1F2B082E10BCE52E&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=10
49 and change and she loses to who?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9wMQZhBK_0
48 and change and she wins against no one
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipCdzkHsmJ4&feature=PlayList&p=1F7C73E79C93B0A2&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=16
her best races are when she's running a little faster than 48 not slower. of course this last one- the go for wand will be graded highly as far as speed figs go because she won by open lengths. which is poppy cock!!
PaceAdvantage
11-10-2009, 07:40 PM
You really think that? I really hope you do not believe any surface itself lets any horse, especially a great race mare win regrdless of pace or set-up.I do not believe for one second that Zenyatta would still be undefeated if artificial tracks did not exist. I'm not saying she would suck on dirt...the Apple Blossom clearly points out that she can run on dirt too...
Dirt is a much more unforgiving surface when it comes to setups, especially to deep closers like Zenyatta. Horses with Zenyatta's style of running will have a very hard time staying undefeated on dirt...because the pace will do them in much more often than on turf or AWS.
How many times have we seen a quality horse set a reasonable or even slow pace on turf or AWS, and still fold like a tent when the closers start to come after them?
But throw those same horses on the dirt, and that front runner suddenly has all the courage in the world to hold off the deep Zenyatta-like closer.
i guess cj didn't have a negative model. how one only knows. thats the time ginger ran for her 1/2 mile in all her winning races.
Raw times are pretty worthless measures.
I don't understand quantum physics, but it doesn't mean I don't think it works.
46zilzal
11-10-2009, 08:40 PM
We had here one of these beautiful LATE running mares named Delta Colleen who ran every one of her races upside down. It was all the more surprising on the five furlong bull ring she ran on. The fields she ran against collectively knew that the only chance in beating her was to slow it down early (so as to have enough left late to re-break), so each and everyone of her local races had CRAWLING times to the half. She blew by them nonetheless.
LESSON: the final time of a race when a deep closer is making a big move, means NOTHING as they only move by the field's pace that is offered to them. She did it over and over the same way fields appeared to have try to scoff the big Z girl and couldn't.
The lessons of Bradshaw's match up: evaluate the horse versus the fastest early pace and/or the pace projection of today's field. In going back in Zenyatta's record, her lines 6 and 7 were against much faster paces than any she met this past season and she STILL blew by them
TFM poster was right: this one's greatness was hidden in slow pace times
Show Me the Wire
11-10-2009, 09:17 PM
I do not believe for one second that Zenyatta would still be undefeated if artificial tracks did not exist. I'm not saying she would suck on dirt...the Apple Blossom clearly points out that she can run on .......... that front runner suddenly has all the courage in the world to hold off the deep Zenyatta-like closer.
Something we will never know. Anything is possible, the surface may have helped her stay undefeated. One thing for sure her classic win was not due to a set-up. Gio Ponte was running and would have beaten any other horse, except Zenyatta that day.
As they say Zenyatta nailed him to the post.
Something we will never know. Anything is possible, the surface may have helped her stay undefeated. One thing for sure her classic win was not due to a set-up. Gio Ponte was running and would have beaten any other horse, except Zenyatta that day.
As they say Zenyatta nailed him to the post.
The set up didn't hurt, that is for sure. It really isn't possible dirt would have helped her stay undefeated. If she had done the same things on dirt, 14 for 14 in mostly top class races, in my mind she is the greatest of all time by a nice margin. The reason I think that is because it never happens.
Seabiscuit@AR
11-10-2009, 09:55 PM
The Apple Blossom race shows that Zenyatta is just as good on dirt. She absolutely monstered that field and looked like she could have gone round to the start and run another race straight away
From what I have seen of Zenyatta if they crawl up front she wins. If they go fast up front she wins. If they go average up front she wins
Against standard G1 opposition she is too good on dirt or AW. The only query would be if she faced a really really fast horse on the dirt like a Ghostzapper at his best. Not sure if she could catch him but then again he was miles faster than a horse like Rachel and the standard G1 winners you see all the time
bisket
11-11-2009, 06:17 PM
ra would give her a good run for her money on a dirt track that plays fast and doesn't have a long stretch. monmouth and gulfstream in particular.which is part of the reason ra looked so good in the haskell. the track favors her style bigtime. they weren't dumb. they knew summer would beat them at 1 1/4 mile. i'm still :D about the kensei deal. another horse that was a potential speed figure bonanza. :lol: for bettors
bisket
11-11-2009, 06:30 PM
My fault, shouldn't have jumped to that conclusion. The stuff on the web is outdated and or misinformed...maybe bisket wrote it?
He projects from the previous form of the horses that ran well and are consistent for the most part.
As for bisket, I don't base my figures on Beyers, I just use the same scale. (although, ironically, I don't on synthetics any longer since he switched)
The 3 year times you mention have absolutely nothing to do with Beyers. When Turfway went to polytrack, he had figures the next day. He didn't need any pars or 3 year best times, and neither would any competent figure maker.
using figures at a track thats only been race on one day. wouldn't be to proud of that
using figures at a track thats only been race on one day. wouldn't be to proud of that
Obviously, you aren't able to comprehend figure making. No problem, I can't paint or sing...we all have our weaknesses.
Valuist
11-11-2009, 08:17 PM
ra would give her a good run for her money on a dirt track that plays fast and doesn't have a long stretch. monmouth and gulfstream in particular.which is part of the reason ra looked so good in the haskell. the track favors her style bigtime. they weren't dumb. they knew summer would beat them at 1 1/4 mile. i'm still :D about the kensei deal. another horse that was a potential speed figure bonanza. :lol: for bettors
Summer Bird is most definitely NOT better than Rachel Alexandra at 1 1/4 miles on ANY dirt track. Forget about the length of the stretch; it wouldn't matter.
classhandicapper
11-12-2009, 10:56 AM
But the point is that Beyer would never pick Zenyatta, as she was TOO SLOW. So, while someone who approaches the game without the use of figures, for example, could EASILY see that Zenyatta was a SPECIAL horse, BEYER was oblivious to it. Now, any way you spin this, this is a MAJOR ****UP. Any theory that fails to account for the OBVIOUS cases is not much use as a theory.
What I find particularly interesting is that 20 years from now when people are using BEYERS to compare horses, Indian Blessing will be considered a mUCH BETTER horse. :lol::lol: She was FAST and Zenyatta was SLOW.:rolleyes:
I also wonder how BEYER handles the figure for the CLASSIC. Does he give it a 96, as this is Zenyatta's best number? And then have to deal with all the FAST horses in the race suddenly becoming SLOW. Does he give it a higher rating? A much higher rating? If so, how does he explain a 5 year old mare that never ran more than a 96 suddendly 'IMPROVING' so much that she wins, arguably, the premier race in the world. :D:D The SLOW to FAST syndrome.
It's ridiculous shit like this that just transcends the comical. And, somehow, trying to explain it all away by contending that Z, at 5:2 wasn't a VALUE play, makes it even more ridiculous.
I have to agree with you.
The game is way more complex than final time, but many of the supposed premier experts in the game don't really understand the nuances of how pace and race development (or to use your words "race shape") impact the very times they use to measure ability. They also don't understand the differences between the surfaces well enough to focus on the right things when trying to measure the "relative ability" of horses racing on different surfaces.
(Though to be honest, even though I've been screaming about Zenyatta's greatness all year and even called for a peak performance in the weeks leading up to the race, I thought 5-2 wasn't very good value either.)
classhandicapper
11-12-2009, 11:13 AM
This is where you lose me. You and the other Zenyatta fanboys act as if she drew off and won this race by 20 lengths.
Zenyatta's best lifetime Beyer showing in Saturday's form was a 108. Gio Ponti's best Beyer showing was a 106.
Zenyatta beat Gio Ponti by ONE single solitary length.
Tell me again how off these numbers are, if we are to assume Zenyatta and Gio Ponti were both at the top of their game on Saturday (which I would guess most people would assume).
I think what the Fat Man and I are saying is that she has been running extremely well all year despite what those silly Beyer figures in the high 90s were suggesting. We are also saying that if you compare her 112 on Saturday to a 112 run on dirt by some other horse, you are still not seeing how great she is. IMO that was a monstrous performance. She is way more than one length better than GIO (who is himself a very good horse)
I am personally not suggesting that fractional and final times are meaningless on turf/synth. I look at fractions, closing times, and final times for clues as to what happened in a race because I think the clock measures some things better than we can see them. It's just that the races develop so differently on turf/synth that final time figures lose a lot of their effectiveness as a measure of ability. They are also basically useless in trying to compare the relative of ability of turf/synth horses to dirt horses. When Z ran those high 90s Beyers, many "supposed experts" basically thought she was a bum because those are the kind of figures that ALW horses run on dirt. But she was revealing greatness in some of those races too if you were looking at the right things.
Charlie D
11-12-2009, 11:17 AM
It's just that the races develop so differently on turf/synth that final time figures lose a lot of their effectiveness as a measure of ability
The boys at Timeform would probably disagree with this after kicking butt in Classic.
proximity
11-12-2009, 11:57 AM
The game is way more complex than final time, but many of the supposed premier experts in the game don't really understand .........
still trying to "convert" len and jerry, cartman?:rolleyes:
bisket
11-12-2009, 06:20 PM
Summer Bird is most definitely NOT better than Rachel Alexandra at 1 1/4 miles on ANY dirt track. Forget about the length of the stretch; it wouldn't matter.
i'll file that away because when it comes about next year i'll be sure to take your opinion into consideration
jonnielu
11-12-2009, 07:59 PM
I think what the Fat Man and I are saying is that she has been running extremely well all year despite what those silly Beyer figures in the high 90s were suggesting. We are also saying that if you compare her 112 on Saturday to a 112 run on dirt by some other horse, you are still not seeing how great she is. IMO that was a monstrous performance. She is way more than one length better than GIO (who is himself a very good horse)
I am personally not suggesting that fractional and final times are meaningless on turf/synth. I look at fractions, closing times, and final times for clues as to what happened in a race because I think the clock measures some things better than we can see them. It's just that the races develop so differently on turf/synth that final time figures lose a lot of their effectiveness as a measure of ability. They are also basically useless in trying to compare the relative of ability of turf/synth horses to dirt horses. When Z ran those high 90s Beyers, many "supposed experts" basically thought she was a bum because those are the kind of figures that ALW horses run on dirt. But she was revealing greatness in some of those races too if you were looking at the right things.
I think that what TFM is saying is that BSF's do not and can not recognize the ability of horses like Zenyatta, even though a high degree of ability is just plain obvious. Zenyatta's performances simply point out that the BSF's don't reflect ability, they reflect time.
While time can reflect ability, it very often does not. On such occasions, the figure-maker has to reach for some kind of complex explanation because horse racing just can not be so simple that the bettor could just assume that a horse that goes 14-0 in G1 company is probably better then most on ability.
The idea that the track surface helped one horse in its performance is hopefully as ridiculous as it gets for explaining the limitations of speed figures.
jdl
No one ever said a speed fig did anything more than represent adjusted time for that race. Yet some seem so threatened by them. Maybe their own methods are in need of a shot of confidence? :lol:
The idea that the track surface helped one horse in its performance is hopefully as ridiculous as it gets for explaining the limitations of speed figures.
jdl
Actually, it isn't ridiculous. If two people capable or running 100 yards in 10 flat are asked to run 100 yards in very deep tiring sand, and one of the persons weighs 250 while the other weighs 110, who is going to win?
Of course the surface can help one participant while harming another. If this wasn't true, G1 horses would go back and forth from dirt to turf all the time plucking off the easiest purses.
PaceAdvantage
11-13-2009, 12:16 AM
IMO that was a monstrous performance. She is way more than one length better than GIO (who is himself a very good horse) How many lengths better than GIO do you believe her to be, seeing as she only beat him by a length...
I'm not familiar with GIO's trip...I would have to watch the replay again, but that's really not important after I state the following...
I do recall that Zenyatta supposedly had some sort of horrendous start where she found herself right at the back of the pack (oh wait, that's where she always is...never mind). Then Mike Smith gave her a rare, ground saving trip around the final turn, and she comfortably swung out for clearance as they turned into the stretch...of course I'm sure I'm getting this all wrong and someone will be along in a moment to correct me...
I don't put much stock into all that supposed "trouble" Zenyatta had at the beginning of the race, thus I see her as getting a pretty dreamy trip, all things considered...why do you think she's WAY MORE than one length better than GIO given my assessment (however flawed it may turn out to be)?
As far as synthetic routes go, her trip was about as good as a horse can get. I realize my figures aren't gospel, but I didn't make them with any preconceived ideas, and the pace came back 12 Beyer points faster at 6f than the finish of 109. Seeing how figures are more compressed on synthetics, that is the equivalent of a dirt race with about a 15 point spread. 15 points at 6f is about 6 lengths too fast.
She still had to be a very good horse to take advantage, but even without figures it is easy to see what happened to a couple quality horses in Rip Van Winkle and Einstein when they were up close.
Charlie D
11-13-2009, 07:47 AM
The idea that the track surface helped one horse in its performance is hopefully as ridiculous as it gets for explaining the limitations of speed figures.
I find the above comment interesting Jonnie, but could you give a bit more detail for this thicko from Gods County
As far as synthetic routes go, her trip was about as good as a horse can get. I realize my figures aren't gospel, but I didn't make them with any preconceived ideas, and the pace came back 12 Beyer points faster at 6f than the finish of 109. Seeing how figures are more compressed on synthetics, that is the equivalent of a dirt race with about a 15 point spread. 15 points at 6f is about 6 lengths too fast.
She still had to be a very good horse to take advantage, but even without figures it is easy to see what happened to a couple quality horses in Rip Van Winkle and Einstein when they were up close.
I've got the pace as fast, but not superfast. Regal Ransom and Einstein may have some excuse, but none of the others do. IMO.
I think that what TFM is saying is that BSF's do not and can not recognize the ability of horses like Zenyatta, even though a high degree of ability is just plain obvious. Zenyatta's performances simply point out that the BSF's don't reflect ability, they reflect time.
While time can reflect ability, it very often does not. On such occasions, the figure-maker has to reach for some kind of complex explanation because horse racing just can not be so simple that the bettor could just assume that a horse that goes 14-0 in G1 company is probably better then most on ability.
The idea that the track surface helped one horse in its performance is hopefully as ridiculous as it gets for explaining the limitations of speed figures.
jdl
This doesn't have to be very complicated. The main problem is that Beyer only looks at final times. This is obviously not good enough on the turf and the polytrack where race shapes aren't as one-dimensional as on the dirt.
On such occasions, the figure-maker has to reach for some kind of complex explanation because horse racing just can not be so simple that the bettor could just assume that a horse that goes 14-0 in G1 company is probably better then most on ability
Beyer numbers do not represent ability - just how fast a horse ran a race. Complex explanations are required - usually, there is a reason for an out of wack number.
Charlie D
11-13-2009, 10:21 AM
The main problem is that Beyer only looks at final times
There is no problem as that is what his numbers are measuring i believe, but i could be wrong regarding that as i've been imformed by Tom and CJ that he is using a projection method.
There is no problem as that is what his numbers are measuring i believe, but i could be wrong regarding that as i've been imformed by Tom and CJ that he is using a projection method.
Of course he still uses the final time, but he doesn't compare them to pars very often when creating a variant. He compares them to what the horses have displayed in the past.
For example, maybe the horse's raw time gives a 100 figure. The top three horses finish tightly grouped with a normal pace scenario and all seem capable of running about 80. The projected variant for that race is going to be 20 fast. If it fits in line with the other races, that will be the variant. If, however, all the other races are only 10 fast, he has to decide if the projection was wrong, or something caused the unusual time. It is not cut and dried either way and happens many, many times.
Charlie D
11-13-2009, 10:42 AM
I really need to read his nook CJ to know what he does, but going by what you state i think i'm correct in assumming there is no problem with his numbers.
The problem as i see it seems to be with people not understanding what they represent, which is what Tom stated in his 9.54 am post.
I really need to read his nook CJ to know what he does, but going by what you state i think i'm correct in assumming there is no problem with his numbers.
The problem as i see it seems to be with people not understanding that they represent, which is what Tom stated in his 9.45 am post.
I would highly recommend reading them if for no other reason Beyer is an excellent writer. His books are informative and entertaining. I'm also a Nick Mordin fan. What do you think of his works?
Charlie D
11-13-2009, 10:59 AM
From the few articles and lone book i've read i would agree that Beyer is excellent writer, however, having listened to him on a couple of occasions on UK racing tv, i do get the impression he thinks his numbers tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth, which in reality they don't as final time numbers just don't do that.
That is not to say they are useless btw.
As for Nick, he lke most of us talk crap sometimes, but he does make some very interesting observations and like Beyer is worth reading.
There is no problem as that is what his numbers are measuring i believe, but i could be wrong regarding that as i've been imformed by Tom and CJ that he is using a projection method.
The projection method applies to the daily track variant as far as I know.
Final times are ONE way of expressing ability, but what I mean is that it's not a very good way of expressing ability on turf and poly.
I really need to read his nook CJ to know what he does, but going by what you state i think i'm correct in assumming there is no problem with his numbers.
The problem as i see it seems to be with people not understanding what they represent, which is what Tom stated in his 9.54 am post.
No there isn't really a problem. It's just that "Beyer does it again" stirred some emotion among players who are aware of the fact there are better alternatives for poly/turf.
TexasDolly
11-13-2009, 12:14 PM
I didn't have time to read the entire thread but in answer to your question CJ,
the Bris numbers had Dancing on top,Furthest 2nd by 1 and the usual qt on top(22.80) in the 10th. These were taken from the race summary pdf file. All were last race numbers.
TD
Charlie D
11-13-2009, 12:16 PM
The projection method applies to the daily track variant as far as I know.
Final times are ONE way of expressing ability, but what I mean is that it's not a very good way of expressing ability on turf and poly.
The number represents what the Beyer methodology say they did in a particular race, nothing more, nothing less as Tom stated.
When that is understood, like Tom and CJ seem to do, they then become a tool that is useful to the bettor.
Charlie D
11-13-2009, 12:36 PM
No there isn't really a problem. It's just that "Beyer does it again" stirred some emotion among players who are aware of the fact there are better alternatives for poly/turf.
Beyer numbers had recorded Zenyatta at 108, i notice CJ had a 117, i believe
The information was staring up at people from off the page so to speak. They just chose to ignore it.
Charlie D
11-13-2009, 01:01 PM
99 105 104 104 | 104 117 108 95 110 101
As anyone can see CJ had recorded some good numbers for Zenyatta, it is not his fault or that of his methodolgy that in 2009 the race dynamics were not the same and she failed to run a 108, 110, 117.
Nor is it his fault or his methodology's fault that people did not consider those race dynamics in 2009 ..
Show Me the Wire
11-13-2009, 01:08 PM
As anyone can see CJ had recorded some good numbers for Zenyatta, it is not his failt or that of his methodolgy that in 2009 the race dynamics were not the same and she failed to run a 108, 110, 117.
Nor is it his fault or his methodology's fault that people were oblivious to that.
Actually, you are starting to understand the point. It is difficult to measure the greatness of Zenyatta solely on speed figures.
Many people ,not CJ, were discussing how Zenyatta is slower this year than last year solely on the speed figures calculated, as you say, due to the race dynamics.
I am not attacking CJ's numbers or any other number methodology, just clarifying the actual debate. CJ and others do a great job and as with any data it is only a tool and tools only matter how you use them.
Charlie D
11-13-2009, 01:13 PM
There is no problem with the methodolgy, the fault lies in lack of understanding in the how, what, why and if those people understood, these threads would not exist as Tom and CJ tried to point out.
The number represents what the Beyer methodology say they did in a particular race, nothing more, nothing less as Tom stated.
When that is understood, like Tom and CJ seem to do, they then become a tool that is useful to the bettor.
Nobody is disputing this, I believe.
Charlie D
11-13-2009, 02:12 PM
Nobody is disputing this, I believe.
So what are they disputing???
So what are they disputing???
Sorry, it's Friday night, don't want to summarize 15 pages.
Charlie D
11-13-2009, 04:40 PM
Sorry, it's Friday night, don't want to summarize 15 pages.
I'll do it for you - Beyer numbers suck because we do not understand what they are telling us.
Charlie D
11-13-2009, 04:52 PM
Here are two races of Zenyatta's over 8.5f at OSA
102 and 4/5th
100 and 1/5th
What were the Beyers????
bisket
11-13-2009, 05:05 PM
Of course he still uses the final time, but he doesn't compare them to pars very often when creating a variant. He compares them to what the horses have displayed in the past.
For example, maybe the horse's raw time gives a 100 figure. The top three horses finish tightly grouped with a normal pace scenario and all seem capable of running about 80. The projected variant for that race is going to be 20 fast. If it fits in line with the other races, that will be the variant. If, however, all the other races are only 10 fast, he has to decide if the projection was wrong, or something caused the unusual time. It is not cut and dried either way and happens many, many times.
as i posted ealier on either this thread or the other thread. the problem is when a horse THAT DIDN'T RACE IN THAT TWO MONTH PERIOD IS COMPARED TO A HORSE THAT DID RACE IN THAT 2 MONTH PERIOD WHILE RUNNING IN THE SAME RACE. SO THE HORSE THAT DID RUN IN JAN, FEB, AND MARCH THE VARIANT WILL PROJECT FOR THAT HORSE A GOOD OUTLOOK FOR THE ACTUAL SPEED OF THE TRACK FOR A RACE IN SAY APRIL OF 2008. well lots of times there would be a number of horses that did race in jan-march and a few that didn't. so the figure maker has to reach a happy medium. the result is a continues watering down of the figures on the low side in california. that compared with the slow early fractions for routes even compounded the problem. this also contributed to higher fig for horses that raced on dirt. my point is theres more to it then making adjustments to figures based on early pace. in 2008 beyer was fortunate because there was only one good 3 year old raced exclusively in california and that was colonal john. who didn't race in the 2 month period and lets see what his beyers were
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2008/pps/kentuckyderby08.pdf
his highest were 93 and 95
now contrast that with gayego. who raced in the san pedro and set the track record for 6 1/2 furs and recieved a 102 which is high for an ungraded stakes; go to the bottom for all weather
http://santaanita.com/content/track-records
then raced in the san felipe and recieved a 96 which is a high fig for that race. which in fact increased georgie boys fig. than raced in the arkansas and and recieved a 103. shortly after the race i recall beyer shooting his mouth off about how fast the horses that left california were. than to even further screw the figs up gayego's track record influenced z fortune's fig in arkansas as he recieved a 102. so it made horses appear fast that are slow and made fast horses appear slow. i'd say has anyone heard anything from z fortune after he finished 10th heres the chart if anyone would like to see where gayego finished. :lol:
now we can go through 2009's 3 year olds if you like? i still can't believe the cash call in dec of 2008 got an 86 and pioneer of the niles fastest fig was 96. hint i can tell you how i want revenge ran every bit as well in that race as his two in new york? :p
bisket
11-13-2009, 05:07 PM
these problems compounded themselves for a year and a half. now the speed figure guys decide to get religion :ThmbDown:
bisket
11-13-2009, 05:16 PM
track record are harmless and don't effect speed figs :lol:
Charlie D
11-13-2009, 05:21 PM
Bisket
If you would be so kind, answer my question above what were the beyers???
bisket
11-13-2009, 05:28 PM
the beyers are located in the bold type in the past performances just after the name of the race. i posted the past performances for the derby in 2008. so these are the past performances everyone recieved the week before the derby in 2008. you can look at the past performances and compare them with what actually took place in the race. now this two month period skewed the beyers for just this amount of horses. just think what it did for all the horses racing in california!!
Bisket, you continue to prove a few things:
You have no idea how Beyer speed figures are made
You have no idea how to create a readable post if it is more than two sentences in length
You don't even try to figure out the posts of others
You will be very happy to know I think Beyer blew that Arkansas Derby figure. If you check the archives for the Derby on my site, you'll see I gave the race only a 94 speed figure as compared to Beyer's 103, albeit with a fast pace.
But, that doesn't mean you are right about the rest. Beyer blew that race because the pace was quick and he didn't want to give Gayego a big drop in figures while winning right back, a flaw I often see in his numbers.
To say Gayego's 102 is too high is just silly. He came back to prove sprinting was his game and there is no reason to believe that figure isn't legitimate. He has consistently run that fast sprinting and just won the G1 Ancient Title prior to the Breeder's Cup.
now contrast that with gayego. who raced in the san pedro and set the track record for 6 1/2 furs and recieved a 102 which is high for an ungraded stakes
This is EXACTLY what speed figures are trying to accomplish. They attempt to define how fast a horse ran without regard to some phony class level. They worked to perfection with Gayego, identifying him as a sprinter to be reckoned with down the road.
Soon, I'm going to have to start charging you for all this education.
Charlie D
11-13-2009, 06:00 PM
They seem to do exactly what it says on the tin CJ.
Robert Goren
11-13-2009, 06:45 PM
I believe that some where in one of Beyer's books, he suggested starting out by taking the average of distance and class time to set the par time. Then after you get some decently reliable numbers, you then change gears and start comparing the times in a race to the previous ratings to get the just run race to get it's rating. I have no idea if he still does this. I do know it is a lot of work. I used that method for a long time. Needless to say one circuit was the most I ever did at once. I also know that this is as clear as mud.
Show Me the Wire
11-13-2009, 07:01 PM
Charlie D:
This is EXACTLY what speed figures are trying to accomplish. They attempt to define how fast a horse ran without regard to some phony class level. They worked to perfection with Gayego, identifying him as a sprinter to be reckoned with down the road.
Soon, I'm going to have to start charging you for all this education.
This is the crux of the matter, class versus speed. Gayego is a poor example as he is a class horse.
The issue is better highlighted when 10k claimers run high speed numbers, if they can move up to high allowance company and repeat their efforts, which ususlly they can not. The converse is true that it is also difficult to measure a class horse like Zenyatta with speed figures.
the_fat_man
11-13-2009, 07:12 PM
Charlie D:
This is the crux of the matter, class versus speed. Gayego is a poor example as he is a class horse.
The issue is better highlighted when 10k claimers run high speed numbers, if they can move up to high allowance company and repeat their efforts, which ususlly they can not. The converse is true that it is also difficult to measure a class horse like Zenyatta with speed figures.
I don't think much of Gayego. I need to see him win without a perfect trip to be able to consider him a 'class' horse.
Let's break down your 2nd paragraph:
1) FAST but CHEAP horses can't run as fast as CLASS horses
2) OR put another way, can't run as fast as they do against other CHEAP horses
3) which means that they might have faster races than the CLASS horses but they can't replicate them against CLASS horses
4) CLASS horses can appear to be SLOW but they're really not:rolleyes: as they would beat FASTER CHEAPER horses (and maybe even FAST CLASS horses OR SLOW CLASS horses)
Confusing? :lol::lol:
I like my game with a bit more (logical) consistency.
Show Me the Wire
11-13-2009, 07:18 PM
I don't think much of Gayego. I need to see him win without a perfect trip to be able to consider him a 'class' horse.
Let's break down your 2nd paragraph:
1) FAST but CHEAP horses can't run as fast as CLASS horses
2) OR put another way, can't run as fast as they do against other CHEAP horses
3) which means that they might have faster races than the CLASS horses but they can't replicate them against CLASS horses
4) CLASS horses can appear to be SLOW but they're really not:rolleyes: as they would beat FASTER CHEAPER horses (and maybe even FAST CLASS horses OR SLOW CLASS horses)
Confusing? :lol::lol:
I like my game with a bit more (logical) consistency.
If you solely use speed figures to define class, yes.
Charlie D
11-13-2009, 07:30 PM
Zenyatta 112
She posted that because of the race dynamics in Classic, she posted 117 on CJ's figs because of the race dynamics in that race, she posted 99 on CJ figs in her last race before Classic because of the race dynamics in that race.
The methodology's are doing exactly what they say on the tin.
bisket
11-13-2009, 07:39 PM
cj ok then explain a higher speed figure for gayego in the arkansas? a 1 1/8 mile race?
robert the reason it effected the figures more than usual is because santa anita started with poly in the fall of 2007. there were just as many racing dates with the track playing as poly does now, as there were when the track was screwed up. basically there was 2 1/2 months of races which played like poly normally does, 2 1/2 months of races with the track playing remarkably fast. once beyer assigns a horse a figure its the basis for the horses next figure and also effects all the horses figures that the horse races with in the future; if the horse with the phony figure wins the race!! the fact of the matter is gayego needed graded purse money in either the arkansas derby or the santa anita derby. the fact is gayego went to arkansas to get away from colonal john!!
charlie: i don't know if your familiar with the situation at santa anita. they installed the poly track for there oak tree meet in 2007. it had just as many dates as it did this year. santa anita reopened in january 2008. it rained buckets for many days. the poly track got to the point that it couldn't be raced on because the water wasn't draining properly. santa anita decided to seal the track. this is usually done on dirt surfaces when a track is going to get a few days of rain. basically it compacts the surface so water can't penetrate the surface and runs off. so it makes the track hard and fabulously fast. well this is what they did at santa anita so that they could conduct racing for the rest of the meet. the result was 2 1/2 months off fabulously fast times. so at that point there was more racing dates with the fast track then with the real track. so when they installed the new track (which plays much slower speed fig wise) times were compared to it like nothing happened.
it was actually the figures that were assigned to colonal john that tipped me off to the situation. that horse had a remarkably beautiful stride. if you hadn't guessed by now he was my derby horse ;) . i don't think he would have won but he took a bad step turning into the stretch and also didn't get to good of a trip to that point either. turning for home an in the money was possible though, and collecting on my trifecta looked good :bang:
Charlie D
11-13-2009, 07:48 PM
CJ figs
102 and 4/5th = 99
100 and 1/5th = 117
CJ figs doing exactly what they say on the tin.
Todays Pace is 47 and change and 71 and change, which CJ fig do you think Zenyatta is more likely to run to, the 99 that had 49 and change and 72 and change or the one that had 48 and change and 71 and change or will she run somwhere in between because the race dynamics dictates another number???
toetoe
11-13-2009, 07:50 PM
But throw those same horses on the dirt, and that front runner suddenly has all the courage in the world to hold off the deep Zenyatta-like closer.
Careful, PA. You may unwittingly be arming the Zenyistas and the Plastic Fantastic Lovers with ammo to sling at Rachel Alexandra, even though we both know she is not among "those same horses."
cj ok then explain a higher speed figure for gayego in the arkansas? a 1 1/8 mile race?
Do you even read what I wrote? I already did exactly that. I even said I gave a much lower figure and didn't agree with Beyer. It is like you just skim over the posts and pick out two or three words, then type your reply. It is like you are play Madlibs (http://www.madlibs.com/) or something.
The truth is Gayego ran in the Arkansas Derby to TRY DIRT before the Derby. And for the 100th time, a horse can get the same figure running 1:13 as he can running 1:10, which is exactly what speed figures try to do, account for the speed of the track. To say Beyer couldn't handle an exceptionally fast track is one of the dumbest things I've heard. He has been doing figures for a long, long time and I'm sure he doesn't screw the figures up every time there is a really quick surface.
EVERYBODY knew about the crazy fast times at Santa Anita. There was no hidden secret, yet you are trying to pretend you are the only one that knew. Check out Cost of Freedom when you get time. He ran two races during that time, and though winning, got the slowest figures of his career. The same thing happened to Street Boss. You can see both of these in last year's BC Sprint. During the same time, In Summation ran one of his highest figure races.
There are other examples in the Classic. Tiago ran pretty close to the same numbers all year. Same thing for Go Between. Student Council, ditto. Colonel John, bingo, same thing. They all ran during this fast track period, yet there is no real difference in their figs later in the year that would indicate some sort of mistake was made.
You are grasping at straws big time. I'm sure you cashed a trifecta once on your misinformation, good on you. I hope you didn't spend it all in one place.
jonnielu
11-13-2009, 08:36 PM
No one ever said a speed fig did anything more than represent adjusted time for that race. Yet some seem so threatened by them. Maybe their own methods are in need of a shot of confidence? :lol:
Actually, I am thankful for the popularity of speed figures, if it weren't for that there would be many less overlay prices on those slow horses that speed figures can not see as having the ability to win. There is one piece of good advice in every book you have read, "do something different."
jdl
jonnielu
11-13-2009, 08:48 PM
Beyer numbers do not represent ability - just how fast a horse ran a race. Complex explanations are required - usually, there is a reason for an out of wack number.
And, the usual reason is that square pegs don't fit into round holes in the first place.
jdl
bisket
11-13-2009, 08:54 PM
colonal john did not run during the this period of time!! that was my point!!
jonnielu
11-13-2009, 08:55 PM
Of course he still uses the final time, but he doesn't compare them to pars very often when creating a variant. He compares them to what the horses have displayed in the past.
For example, maybe the horse's raw time gives a 100 figure. The top three horses finish tightly grouped with a normal pace scenario and all seem capable of running about 80. The projected variant for that race is going to be 20 fast. If it fits in line with the other races, that will be the variant. If, however, all the other races are only 10 fast, he has to decide if the projection was wrong, or something caused the unusual time. It is not cut and dried either way and happens many, many times.
Of course it is cut and dried, his projection can't be wrong, and since he can't figure out where the 100 came from, the tide obviously went out and dried up the track all of a sudden, speeding it up for 30 minutes. Nuthin to it.
jdl
He ran on March 1st, 2008. You said in January they sealed the track and it was like this for 2.5 months, which means at least mid-March.
You have to be pretending to be this slow...a belated April Fools' joke on CJ. Good one guys.
Of course it is cut and dried, his projection can't be wrong, and since he can't figure out where the 100 came from, the tide obviously went out and dried up the track all of a sudden, speeding it up for 30 minutes. Nuthin to it.
jdl
You should stick to talking about stuff you understand...
once you figure out what that is.
And, the usual reason is that square pegs don't fit into round holes in the first place.
jdl
Look, don't let it bother you, a lot of people ( :rolleyes:) are not smart enough to use speed figures. Nothing to be embarrassed about. They only come in black, so I can see your predicament. Maybe if Beyer could do some nice red ones you would have a clue. Or some nice blue ones. Maybe he could color co-ordinate with the fat charts. Winners are red, place is blue, hey! saddle cloths could be tied in. What pretty pictures. Then you ALL could talk in terms of hues. :lol::lol:
Maybe, with colors, your CUSTOMERS would not publicly trash your service here! Nothing says quality like a disgruntled customer. :D
jonnielu
11-13-2009, 09:35 PM
Actually, it isn't ridiculous. If two people capable or running 100 yards in 10 flat are asked to run 100 yards in very deep tiring sand, and one of the persons weighs 250 while the other weighs 110, who is going to win?
Of course the surface can help one participant while harming another. If this wasn't true, G1 horses would go back and forth from dirt to turf all the time plucking off the easiest purses.
Probably not the one you would think, if the answer were as obvious as you suppose, nary a race would be run. Which runner has the bigger feet? Perhaps sinkage will be a wash on that factor. I'd figure the heavier person would come by that weight by height, and perhaps have longer legs and stride. Will less strides tire more, or less? Which one is likely to get to full speed with the lessor expense of energy? The long loper, or the short chopper?
The surface is the surface, its nature is general. Tiring, or not so, or lightning fast, not very tiring. On which one does hoof size make any difference, most likely grass, but then what about very firm grass opposed to deep tiring grass.
Is turf in general more tiring than dirt, in general? Or does it just depend on how deep either may be, or does what the horsemen believe dominate the running style? If 10 horses go on a surface that only 9 horsemen believe is tiring. Is it really tiring, or not? If the 10th horse wires the field, should we assume that the surface is not tiring, or should we assume that the speedball winner had the biggest hooves?
Or, should we wait to see what the next group of 10 horsemen think now with this display of speed on the supposed tiring lawn.
jdl
bisket
11-13-2009, 09:38 PM
sheesh i just typed a message explaining that i must have forgotten that it was the end of february when the track was replaced, and it was an edit :bang: that was to long after the post. anyhow its mathematics IS the problem. there just wasn't enough data to go by to make the figs accurate because of the 2 months when the track played completely different. cj i know your figures must be accurate and good because a handicapper i respect uses them. i knew when the figures weren't accurate because I DO UNDERSTAND HOW THEY ARE COMPILED. another handicapper i know uses the yards per second formula for his spread sheet. its served him well except in california!! i wonder why? anyhow i intend to not be sucked into this conversation anymore. it was just the fact that others were posting that i didn't have a clue that got my goat. maybe in need a goat picture too ;) anyhow happy handicapping all and happy figure making and reading to those that choose to do so.
Fastracehorse
11-13-2009, 10:00 PM
I'm sorry, I'm a conspiracy theorist horse player. I think some venues burn alot of chalk.......................I will say no more than that.
Last at Calder appeared easy today. Top 3 Beyer figs: stood out. In this order: 1-6-4. Odds of: 3:5, 12-1, and, 50-1.
But they burned the chalk again at Calder, not even 3rd. So the 2nd best Beyer came in over the 2nd best Beyer and payed a $600 x. But I bet the tri, he he he he, and missed.
My Beyer figs are adjusted - as they should be. A horse with a trouble line deserves an adjustment vs. a horse with a clean trip. Makes sense right?
fffastt
dansan
11-13-2009, 10:13 PM
your better off playing speed number track variant than beyer #
toetoe
11-13-2009, 11:03 PM
Mmmm ... oh, Beyer ... hnnnYOU-OU-OU-OU'VE done it again. :jump:
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