BC Skunkings

[the_fat_man]

We all know that the best horse often doesn't win. Here is my take on some of the 'unfortunate' incidents of the past 2 days:

Day 1

Marathon

Homeister, in a hurray with Cloudy's Night, gets nailed at the wire for her impatience -- wins if she waits just a few seconds longer.


Juvenile Filly Turf

Smart Seattle sitting a nice inside trip when she (apparently) takes a bad step, gets shuffled back badly, and never recovers --- probably doesn't win.


Junenile Fillies

Biofuel is at least 2nd if she's not stopped badly midstretch.


Filly and Mare Turf

Gomez falls asleep on Pure Clan, then has her momentary behind horses (without a clear run) in the stretch -- the way she finished, even with the winner making a premature move, it's likely she wins with a better timed ride

Filly and Mare Sprint

Ventura -- Gomez blew her ride at KEE by moving too soon; here he moved too late, or, better, just didn't have her close enough early and had to move at the wrong time, thus having no shot to run down a perfect trip/pace winner. Damn shame; this idiot has cost Ventura 3 G1's.

Lady's Classic

Landry forgot that he was in a route, not a sprint, and turned a race where Careless Jewel had a pace advantage into a perfect setup for Life is Sweet. Even a buffoon like Gomez was able to handle that gift.

Day 2

Juvy Turf

Kent blew the race going 3 wide on both turns and not cornering well at all entering the stretch. He thus ran at least 4 lengths more than the top 2, with the winner getting the perfect inside suckup trip. Real shame, as Interactif was much the best and appears to be a very, very nice turf horse. Tough luck for Pletcher. Too very poor rides by Kent on this horse.

SPrint

Espinosa never bothered to keep Zensational straight on the backstretch in his previous races, allowing him to drift out and not stay on the correct lead. When he didn't break today, he still would've gotten a perfect setup, as he seemed to rate okay inside/behind. But while Z didn't panic, Espinosa did, and rather than just sitting inside until they entered, he busted him outside midturn and the rest is history. The way Z finished, and Fatal Bullet collapsed, indicates that a more patient ride doesn't collapse the race and he finishes right there.

Juvy

Yet another impatient ride, this time by W Martinez, who is sitting a perfect stalking trip, yet feels the need to open up suddenly on the turn. He thus turns a race he should easily control into one where he asks his horse to do too much, effectively collapses the race, and sets it up for the perfect trip winner. Gomez got the worst of it in terms of trip/position, just missing, but Noble's Promise is supposed to win the race.

I'm sure there were others. These are the more obvious ones.

[judd]

thats horse racing :bang:

[OTM Al]

You must include Johnny Murtaugh, who was absolutely brutal in the dirt mile, letting what was way the best horse get trapped and then trying to make up for it by putting Rip on way too fast a pace in the Classic. I like the way the guy rides normally, but those were just rotten.

[Space Monkey]

Do you ever have anything good to say?

While I got my wallet damaged, I'll still say that it was a great 2 days of racing. No complaints here. Incredibly tough races to handicap. Safe trips for all and a race for the ages by Zenyatta. No surprise that she relished the 1 1/4. Great ride my Mike Smith.

Goldikova ran another awesome race with an acceleration that you just don't see in 99.9% of other horses. I still remember witnessing that last year from my seat at the top of the stretch. She is something special. Sure there are times when you can question rides, but most of the time guys like you and me have no clue. Its especially true with criticisms of "poorly timed rides". Do you think horses have a button you can just push to get them going? The jockey doesn't have that teletimer informing him that the leader just went a half in 44.3. I think you need a reality check when it comes to what it takes to ride a race horse.

[the_fat_man]

Thanks for the optimism lecture but this is about the best horses not winning. This happens all the time and is very much a part of the game. If you have no interest in this aspect of it, that's fine. There are some here who actually OBJECTIVELY watch races and are able to distinguish between facts and fan opinions.

Can't win if you can't objectively consider races.

[bisket]

jocks do all the good handicappers in every time :rolleyes: :lol:

[Space Monkey]

Sometimes I think people look at a race and think the jockey has a gas pedal, steering wheel and a brake. I think you've fallen into that trap. This ain't NASCAR fat man.

I'm an old trip handicapper from back in the 70's. I look at races objectively. I just think criticisms like the ones you posted don't hold much water. I don't like to lash out right after a card. The old saying " let me sleep on it" fits here. I find that I'm much more objective when I go back a day later to evaluate a card.

[Pell Mell]

An awful lot of bumping in the 1st turn in the Juvy and I think the 3 got the worst of it. Some of the best horses were basically taken out of the race.

[the_fat_man]

Sometimes I think people look at a race and think the jockey has a gas pedal, steering wheel and a brake. I think you've fallen into that trap. This ain't NASCAR fat man.

I'm an old trip handicapper from back in the 70's. I look at races objectively. I just think criticisms like the ones you posted don't hold much water. I don't like to lash out right after a card. The old saying " let me sleep on it" fits here. I find that I'm much more objective when I go back a day later to evaluate a card.

Chances are I trip better than you do. And, I write this with complete objectivity. Do a search on this and other forums and see how strong or weak my opinions are. If you want to debate a particular race, I'll be happy to do so. If you feel the need to hit me with the old OTB argument 'horses aren't cars', I really don't have time for you. There are plenty of other posters here you can try to annoy. Know what I mean?

[Space Monkey]

You must include Johnny Murtaugh, who was absolutely brutal in the dirt mile, letting what was way the best horse get trapped and then trying to make up for it by putting Rip on way too fast a pace in the Classic. I like the way the guy rides normally, but those were just rotten.

I tend to agree.

Espinosa never bothered to keep Zensational straight on the backstretch in his previous races, allowing him to drift out and not stay on the correct lead. When he didn't break today, he still would've gotten a perfect setup, as he seemed to rate okay inside/behind. But while Z didn't panic, Espinosa did, and rather than just sitting inside until they entered, he busted him outside midturn and the rest is history. The way Z finished, and Fatal Bullet collapsed, indicates that a more patient ride doesn't collapse the race and he finishes right there.

Can't agree with this one. Z broke a step slow and Baze drifted in to block. Very good move. I knew Z was cooked. Espinosa waited as long as he reasonably could IMO, but the race was over for Z in the first 100 yards.

[theguarantee]

I hate the guys at the track/otb that complain after every race about how they obviously picked the best horse and the jockey screwed up...that said I saw a lot of weird things past two days, seemed jocks had a very tough time harnessing speed, I'm sure due to nervous energy..but it's part of the jocks job to relax em, no? Couple thoughts I had myself....

Didn't have either but personally I think Rose Catherine may have caught Tapitsfly if Javier didn't lose the whip.

Thought Beautician again got a troubled trip and might have been the best there if she would've got loose to run, seems to be her running style though. Biofuel obviously might have had something to say about that.

Zensational got a terrible trip.

Props to Peslier on Goldikova's ride. It wasn't smooth, but could have really found more trouble.

Obviously Mike Smith gave Zenyatta one hell of a ride. Just perfect...and cost me on my Ponti win bet and Ponti keyed on top.

Props also to Lepareaux, one of my favorite jockeys who rode well just about every race.

Elvis I take it didn't have much of a choice and PP probably once again stole the show with an unbelievable effort for the place...have to wonder if just a little speed was harnessed there if PP could have held on. Ryan Moore, as documented, did an excellent job, knowing the gameness of his horse and taking risks to cut time.

Love Dominguez and I figured this being his only mount, Gio must be ready to fire and I thought Ramon played it perfectly, unfortunately, the super one was just too much.

[bisket]

bad trips and the jocks do them champion grade 1 handicappers in every time :lol: this is more fun than kvet ;)

[Robert Fischer]

nice thread. - Obviously much more to this than bashing jockeys as some seem to miss the point - understanding the races for future betting and also to review today's races to analyze whether we were right(beyond the limited won/loss result)

I'm taking another look at a couple of these to review my thoughts again.

Let me add something here that is hopefully a resource:
click this Link.
Then click "date added" on the right under the 'search box if necessary
beautiful replays with youtube style downloads
http://www.youtube.com/user/BCWorldChampionships#p/u

i like the overheads and iso cams if you guys know of any...

:cool:- clicking the "HD" symbol(lower right next to volume) on some of these replays plays an even nicer high def replay (not sure whether my old computer's RAM is poor) but this new laptop doesn't 'skip' like HD youtube used to do in the past.

[bigmack]

There are plenty of us here that very much respect the insight of TFM. Certainly jocks are fallible.

A review of a potential errs can give reason to players why certain horses didn't walk away as champs.

Good stuff, Jumbo!

[Space Monkey]

Not trying to annoy you. Sorry I used an old cliche, but I'm an old guy. Gee, has somebody used that to describe your opinions before?

I hate the guys at the track/otb that complain after every race about how they obviously picked the best horse and the jockey screwed up.

Agree, and I agree with that and what followed. it was obvious to me that certain owners/trainers, especially Godolphin, set up some of their horses whole year just for this race. A lot of pressure on the jockeys. That might have had something to do with some erratic rides.

[Space Monkey]

Obviously much more to this than bashing jockeys as some seem to miss the poin

No Robert, not missing the point at all. I just think that knee jerk reactions after (probably) a losing day, isn't exhibiting sound judgment. Just bad sportsmanship. TFM has support here, and I have no problem with that, but I've found in reading his comments the past few months, that he's almost always negative. To me post #1 doesn't demonstrate good reasoning, it seems more like sour grapes.

BTW Robert, I agreed with OTM Al's post. Thats being objective.

Gnite all.

[Tom]

My work here is done.

[Niko]

Thanks for the optimism lecture but this is about the best horses not winning. This happens all the time and is very much a part of the game. If you have no interest in this aspect of it, that's fine. There are some here who actually OBJECTIVELY watch races and are able to distinguish between facts and fan opinions.

Can't win if you can't objectively consider races.

While I do enjoy some of your posts, it is horse racing and it's hard to be perfect every time with split second decisions....

I'd love to see the jockeys do an analysis of your handicapping. While I'm sure there are some good moves on your part; I'm sure they could pick out a few pretty obvious after the fact handicapping blunders by yourself....

Sometimes a jockey mistake loses a race for me and sometimes it helps me win a race...

[Bochall]

Smart Seattle: shied or took a bad step when another horse (Hatheer?) went by her on the turn and may have cut her off. Chucked it from there.
Zilva: Rose got her stuck down low and had to swing way out in midstretch...too late. Appeared to have some run.
Interactif: Kent must have thought he could get over before the 1st turn but got hung out. Shoulda known better. Inside stalk was the trip on both surfaces but Kent should have taken back a bit.
Piscitelli: given nice ride by Kent up on the pace and hung in there very well (one of my near miss bombs).
Colonel John: another nice ride and a perfect trip. Gomez gave the Col every chance and I think he moved at the right time, but 10f is too far for this guy.
Cost Of Freedom: heads up ride by T Baze, took it to 'em. Outquicked Z and Fatal Bullet, discouraging them both. Missed by a head (my other near miss bomb).
Maragh and A Garcia had a tough time out there.
Ajtebi almost fell off Vale Of York as he swung out for his winning surge, brushing with Aikenite....you notice that?
Midday, Vale Of York, She Be Wild, Man Of Iron, Furthest Land, and Tapitsfly all had pretty easy trips.

[twindouble]

When the day is done there's nothing wrong with reviewing the races to see what could have gone wrong. I've always excepted the fact that there's potential for chaos in any race, some more than others. Trip handicapping is a very important part of traditional handicapping, knowing what went wrong in a race could very well be a ticket to a very profitable day. One thing I never do is carryover the baggage of any jocks "bad ride" into the next day. Especially when I know the jocks are good riders. Although I might see the race different than The Fat Man, all I have be is right more often that not on future wagers. Away's keep in mind, likelihood of more chaos exists in large fields including the position of the starting gate relative to the first turn and the configuration of the track your playing. Your wagering strategy should incorporate the element of chaos the best you can. I give the jocks a lot of leeway for that reason.


Yesterday was a great day for racing but I don't agree with Smiths comment on Zenyatta after the race. R.A. and Zenatta are exceptional for the times but that's as far as it goes in my opinion.

[46zilzal]

you give riders FAR too much credit for the outcome of a race

[twindouble]

you give riders FAR too much credit for the outcome of a race

Gee, I would have never thought the horse, trainer or the Vet had anything to do with the outcome of a race. :bang: I would hope to think that's not what you meant. :confused: If you want to get down on a jock for a bad ride then toss a horse that figures in a race because he's up, good luck to you. What's done is done, all we can do is what the TFM said, that's learn from whatever happens in any given race. That's what this all about, nothing else. You can't rewind the race and bet again, can you so what's value of beating up on the jocks?

[46zilzal]

Gee, I would have never thought the horse, trainer or the Vet had anything to do with the outcome of a race. I would hope to think that's not what you meant. If you want to get down on a jock for a bad ride then toss a horse that figures in a race because he's up, good luck to you. What's done is done, all we can do is what the TFM said, that's learn from whatever happens in any given race. That's what this all about, nothing else. You can't rewind the race and bet again, can you so what's value of beating up on the jocks?

When the HORSE runs, it is the intrinsic ability of the animal that wins or loses. Riders can only screw that up and few, besides the occasional brilliant rider like Dominguez, Arcaro, Wolfe, Bailey, Shoe or PINCAY, make the horse that much better than they were.

Horses run, riders steer as passengers

[twindouble]

When the HORSE runs, it is the intrinsic ability of the animal that wins or loses. Riders can only screw that up and few, besides the occasional brilliant rider like Dominguez, Arcaro, Wolfe, Bailey, Shoe or PINCAY, make the horse that much better than they were.

Horses run, riders steer as passengers

Do you really think after 49 years of playing the horses anyone needs to explain to me anything about jocks? Players don't have any hand in picking the jocks they want on their best bet of the day. Some are better than others but the greater majority of them CAN RIDE! If you can't deal with the chaos that always has been a part of racing then pull slots. Only a fool would think anyone can ride a race horse and get the best out of the horse. Don't tell me all the jocks you mentioned didn't screw up. How many times have you cashed a nice ticket on the jocks that TFM mentioned, I know I have.

[castaway01]

Do you really think after 49 years of playing the horses anyone needs to explain to me anything about jocks? Players don't have any hand in picking the jocks they want on their best bet of the day. Some are better than others but the greater majority of them CAN RIDE! If you can't deal with the chaos that always has been a part of racing then pull slots. Only a fool would think anyone can ride a race horse and get the best out of the horse. Don't tell me all the jocks you mentioned didn't screw up. How many times have you cashed a nice ticket on the jocks that TFM mentioned, I know I have.

Zilly thinks he needs to explain everything to everyone, repeatedly.

[46zilzal]

. How many times have you cashed a nice ticket on the jocks that TFM mentioned, I know I have.
Since I never look at who is riding, I wouldn't know if I cashed on one of them or not.

[TommyCh]

You would think it would be easy info to find, but who won the jockey bet?

[Space Monkey]

Leparoux

After sleeping on the Cup I have 1 contribution to the thread topic.
With the turf course favoring speed, I upgraded Cowboy Cal. At a mile he doesn't need to lead. Johnny V (who I am a big fan of) chased ridiculous fractions, 22.4, .45, 1:08. JV should have let Gladiatorus go instead of chasing. He burned CC out.

I've read a lot about jocks getting their horses pinned down, boxed in on the rail, etc., like Murtaugh with Mastercraftsman. But if they took the safe, overland route and lost, then we would be criticizing them for that. Jocks that ride in the BC know that they are facing the best and the best ride is essential. That means getting position and saving ground. Its a tough job.

[WinterTriangle]

Thought Beautician again got a troubled trip and might have been the best there if she would've got loose to run, seems to be her running style though.

Beautician HAD A SHOE LOOSE, or LOST A SHOE, either in the gate or during the race.

I had wagered her to be ITM this race, but again, she got some bad luck.

I just read about it. Didn't see anyone bring it up yet.

I felt bad about it, because she is better than this.


thefatman,
most of the jockeys you mentioned, over the course of their careers, are pretty durn good. Just like your handicapping isn't sheer brilliance everyday, no human being can act or think perfectly on a daily basis.

I tend to think of life in terms of ENDEAVOR. Undertaking an endeavor, handicapping races daily, or riding races, or gardening, or novel-writing.......whatever. Even Eric Clapton isn't brilliant on his guitar all the time. :)

[illinoisbred]

Beautician HAD A SHOE LOOSE, or LOST A SHOE, either in the gate or during the race.

I had wagered her to be ITM this race, but again, she got some bad luck.

I just read about it. Didn't see anyone bring it up yet.

I felt bad about it, because she is better than this.


thefatman,
most of the jockeys you mentioned, over the course of their careers, are pretty durn good. Just like your handicapping isn't sheer brilliance everyday, no human being can act or think perfectly on a daily basis.

I tend to think of life in terms of ENDEAVOR. Undertaking an endeavor, handicapping races daily, or riding races, or gardening, or novel-writing.......whatever. Even Eric Clapton isn't brilliant on his guitar all the time. :)
Being a jockey must be a thankless job. Guys like Jerry Bailey don't help their cause when he talks as though race-riding is a scientific or academic pursuit. Decisions are made in split seconds and when wrong its so easy for all to see. I'm often reminded by what I heard when I was about 6 yrs. old standing down by the rail at Arlington. A heckler was giving Bill Hartack an earful, aggravated, Hartack turned and said- if you think this is so god damn easy , you get out here and do it. Shocking to the ears of a 6 yr. old.

[the_fat_man]

thefatman,
most of the jockeys you mentioned, over the course of their careers, are pretty durn good. Just like your handicapping isn't sheer brilliance everyday, no human being can act or think perfectly on a daily basis.

:)

How exactly does this fit in with the effort to get an objective take on a race? Why do I care what a jockey does in the general case when I'm dealing with a SPECIFIC race? Am I supposed to overlook errors because jockeys are only human? Do you (or any of the others seeing this as jockey bashing) ever think before you post? Do you have a clue as to what it takes to objectively evaluate races? I would tend to doubt it by your comments. Take a step back; take a deep breath; and read my posts carefully. I guarantee you will learn something.

[Fingal]

We all know that the best horse often doesn't win. Here is my take on some of the 'unfortunate' incidents of the past 2 days:


Marathon

Homeister, in a hurray with Cloudy's Night, gets nailed at the wire for her impatience -- wins if she waits just a few seconds longer.



That's the one that got me the most- When Trevor started calling that Cloudy's Night was making a move, I started counting the $$$. Until I realized they hadn't even entered the far turn. :eek:

[Space Monkey]

What a horrible way to start off the BC for me. I was looking at a great start if Cloudy Knight had won. Funny thing, it looked like the old guy was coming on again after Man of Iron put his nose in front.

[bisket]

i was happy the orn man won. i hit that race :jump:

[theguarantee]

Beautician HAD A SHOE LOOSE, or LOST A SHOE, either in the gate or during the race.

I had wagered her to be ITM this race, but again, she got some bad luck.

I just read about it. Didn't see anyone bring it up yet.

I felt bad about it, because she is better than this.


thefatman,
most of the jockeys you mentioned, over the course of their careers, are pretty durn good. Just like your handicapping isn't sheer brilliance everyday, no human being can act or think perfectly on a daily basis.

I tend to think of life in terms of ENDEAVOR. Undertaking an endeavor, handicapping races daily, or riding races, or gardening, or novel-writing.......whatever. Even Eric Clapton isn't brilliant on his guitar all the time. :)

Good info, I had not heard that. Horse has really been unfortunate to date.

Also, he has already addressed it, but I believe thefatman (as I also intended to do) is not here to criticize any of the jockeys overall credibility, but simply to point out where perhaps errors in their judgement of a race negatively affected a horse's performance..we therefore can consider bumping their effort next time they run, though we must not necessarily dock a jockey for it...these are the best of the best...it happens. And the horse may get another rough trip the next outing, there is no guarantee, but if two horses go head to head next out, both with identical resumes and one got a perfect trip last out and the other may have performed worse than potential based on a decision by the jockey..then after considering jocks/race shape/etc. I may likely see some value on the one that suffered a bad trip.

I do agree that this can be overused...look at a horse such as the aforementioned Beautician. Her running style seems to always get her in trouble and each race it appears a lack of running room hinders performance. So, if entered into a 14 horse field of reasonable ability we might expect her to again find trouble...but if perhaps entered into an 8 horse field, maybe we can expect a little cleaner trip and a top-notch performance? Again, jockey, race-shape and other considerations must be made as part of teh handicapping process, but many of us cappers definitely try to adjust for trips that may have been affected by jockey decisions.

This is why I tried to highlight a couple good performances by jockeys as unfortunately, we too often only bash them when they do us wrong and don't credit them for helping us make a score.

Just my thoughts at least.

[Murph]

Beautician HAD A SHOE LOOSE, or LOST A SHOE, either in the gate or during the race.

I had wagered her to be ITM this race, but again, she got some bad luck.

I just read about it. Didn't see anyone bring it up yet.

I felt bad about it, because she is better than this.


thefatman,
most of the jockeys you mentioned, over the course of their careers, are pretty durn good. Just like your handicapping isn't sheer brilliance everyday, no human being can act or think perfectly on a daily basis.

I tend to think of life in terms of ENDEAVOR. Undertaking an endeavor, handicapping races daily, or riding races, or gardening, or novel-writing.......whatever. Even Eric Clapton isn't brilliant on his guitar all the time. :)Enough WT.
Even Eric Clapton isn't brilliant on his guitar all the time. :)Tell me when you have seen Clapton not play brilliantly?

thefatman is pointing out things I've only recently understood about this subject. I predict Beautician will not finish ITM in a graded stakes before next June. That's six months.

Give us an example of your forward handicapping prognosis for her next few months of competition. It's alot to digest, trips and surfaces and intentions and perceptions of the handlers and how the horses can relate to it all.

I think Beautician suks, with or without shoes.

[BIG49010]

For what it's worth, horses Gomez get's off, are good bet backs after they switch to another rider. I thought Gomez gave She Be Wild an awful trip at Keeneland, they switched to Leparoux and got the money.

[Robert Fischer]

with Presious Passion in the Turf, there is a (relatively) complex balance between ideal trip and the most you can realistically expect.

Logic says that Dominguez up(or any one of the few jockeys proficient in riding a turf route on lead with the controlling speed), and explicit and specific instructions of only going fast enough to just be clear, and using every inch and every second as efficient as possible would have given that horse a greater chance to win.

It's probably unrealistic to expect changes at that point...
trainer and horse were "over achievers", the jockey has come so far.., Presious Passion simply loves to "run off" with his "unique personality" etc...

but these races are usually competitive enough that good tactics and strategy can't be discarded in favor of sentiment.



It's worth mentioning the obvious; that Conduit is very good, and did in fact run very well. There is plenty of hogwash(out of context misinformation) going around that the Euro races didn't hold form. Then there is the separate hogwash like the various EURO-Ratings which for example treat Rip Van Winkle's Eclipse Stakes as somehow being far dominant to Conduit performance in that race.

[Robert Fischer]

Juvy Turf

Kent blew the race going 3 wide on both turns and not cornering well at all entering the stretch. He thus ran at least 4 lengths more than the top 2, with the winner getting the perfect inside suckup trip. Real shame, as Interactif was much the best and appears to be a very, very nice turf horse. Tough luck for Pletcher. Too very poor rides by Kent on this horse.

Have to agree with you here even though I needed Bridgetown or Pounced here. Pounced with a much better trip. Even with Landry up and blitzing for home, Kent managed a worse trip. I felt Bridgetown had the best last-race coming in of all the north Americans. Game horse. I wasn't impressed with Interactif's Bourbon, at least not very impressed. Codoy ran pretty much the same Bourbon.

Pounced struck me as being a legit turf horse(looks alone) as soon as I caught a glimpse of him. He will face some bears as a 3yo, but my guess is he wins a few more races. Sucks that Interactif will be bet well next out in spite of his placing.


#8 King Ledley got a pretty bad trip in addition to being out-classed - hard to know if he will show up stateside at a decent price.