Belmont Posts, Odds and ramblings

[Kentucky Bred]

Here they are:

Belmont post positions and morning line odds
1 - Empire Maker 6-5
2 - Supervisor 50-1
3 - Scrimshaw 20-1
4 - Funny Cide 1-1
5 - Dynever 5-1
6 - Ten Most Wanted 10-1


Short field as predicted. The prices absolutely blows, unless you are willing to suspend current numbers and look for a horse to reverse what it has recently done.

The PP's for free courtesy of DRF (giving them their props for once)
Need Adobe Acrobat reader (free)


http://www.drf.com/tc/belmont/2003/pps/belmont.pdf

A few ramblings:

57.4 work a few days before running one one-half miles for the first time in his life? PA pointed out on another thread that Funny Cide has improved 6 straight times??? And now he works like a monster and if he is a mortal horse, it will show on Saturday. If he is a true champion to be respected for ages, he will overcome all of this and just win.

However, please note that Empire Maker is a quality horse who, if the foot story is true may just be ready to uncorked a huge one. He is bred perfectly for this race in my opinion. But 6-5? No thanks.

Dynever is superiorly bred as a loong distance horse. Dynaformer, a son of Roberto on top and Zilzal on bottom. Wow, that's distance. With a great trainer like Christoper Clement guiding the way, is a grass career potentially in the offing? This horse has done all asked...so far. I would like 8-1 more than the 5-1 for the shot though.

Schrimshaw has done nothing real wrong since the throat surgery. Ten Most Wanted still has Dollase and Day.

In fact, except for Supervisor, who in the race can't win?

Kentucky Bred

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Kentucky Bred
In fact, except for Supervisor, who in the race can't win?
Kentucky Bred

Unless there is a spill? you never know. With the short field I doubt it. But we haven't had a spill in a big race for a while. At least not a triple crown race. Can you imagine the payouts if something happens to the top horses? I know some guys who always play a 6 dollar or so ticket in these pools leaving out the favs just in case this happens.

[robbierobb]

waremblem took a sort of spill as soon as the gate opened
and away with savara 70-1 so yes anything could happen.buying a you never no ticket could turn out to be a great day.

[Bruddah]

I am an Equisim user and have a simulation tool which I am able to use to compare races and horses. I used the Ky Derby running line for Funny Cide and used the Wood Memorial running line for Empire Maker. The simulation uses these running lines to predict the winner for the 1 1/2 mi. Belmont. Why did I use these running lines? They each ran 2nd to each other...A small regression for FC can be expected back to his Derby performance level. At least a small regression should be due because of the increased distance of the Belmont and the 6 prior improving beyers in a row. Empire Maker should run much better than his Derby race. Whether it will be equal to his Wood Memorial performance, remains to be seen.

The simulation has Empire Maker winning by 2...Interesting....it shows him catching FC with about 70 yards to go and then going on by, easily. Using the same approach for the Ky Derby and Preakness, this method gave me the winners on top along with the trifectas. It will be interesting to see if it can get 3 for 3.

By the way...Thanks Handle from a well satisfied user. I am also looking forward to the new upgrade.

[PaceAdvantage]

Actually, Supervisor can easily win the Belmont.....probably won't, but he has a MUCH better chance than anyone is giving him credit for....remember, this is a very DIFFERENT race.....

[Bruddah]

Darn near exactly as the simulation in Equisim had it...even down to the final 1/4 and time. Equism picked the winner of every race...on top... in the Triple Crown. You can't get any better than that. Handle, if you make this thing any better, I may be able to retire. Ooops, I forgot...I am retired. hee hee hee lol! Laughing all the way to the bank.:) ;) :)

[Tom]

Yeah, but in reality, EM caught him long before the 70 yard mark.
:rolleyes: ;)

[Bruddah]

you are correct. I suppose, I need to throw the darn thing out! hee hee. I will just have to wait for handle to make the darn thing perfect before I use it to make money again. Ok...I am waiting Handle. When do I get the new and improved version and it's unacceptable if it can't give me a simulation that isn't exactly as the race will be run. Darn this electronic stuff anyway, I may have to go back to pen and paper capping, while I wait on perfection. hee hee lol!:) :) :)

[Tom]

ROTFLMAO!