Shirreffs?Why wait so long?

[FastAndFurious]

Did Sheriffs decide to run in the classic because he KNOWS he has HOTY wrapped up if he wins.Why not retire undefeated and pick up the easy purse?Why wait so long to run against the males?why didnt he go after RA?I guess we could all make assumptions,IMO i think he feels he has horse of the year wrapped up if he wins,he carefully mapped out her season and knew all along this is what he was aiming for..enter the classic with a FRESH horse, on her favorite surface,against colts that have had tough campaigns,and knowing RA wasn't heading this way.She got her tough race out of the way 2back..Like Durkin would say "THE STAGE IS NOW SET "

[depalma113]

He's running in the Classic because he knows his horse can't win the Distaff. He knows she won't run down Careless Jewel, so he opts for the race that will not hurt her reputation when she loses.

If by some miracle she does win, than he can tell the world how she is the best horse on the planet.

It's a no lose situation, unless she finishes in the bottom three.

[lamboguy]

He's running in the Classic because he knows his horse can't win the Distaff. He knows she won't run down Careless Jewel, so he opts for the race that will not hurt her reputation when she loses.

If by some miracle she does win, than he can tell the world how she is the best horse on the planet.

It's a no lose situation, unless she finishes in the bottom three.which galaxy did you dream that one up on, i have to admit you must be the greatest comedian on this planet

[Java Gold@TFT]

which galaxy did you dream that one up on, i have to admit you must be the greatest comedian on this planet
What's so funny about it? I happen to agree - a loss in the real Classic is better than a loss in the Distaff as far as her place in history goes. I don't know that she wins the Distaff with that group and definitely would have had a problem with Icon Project if she wasn't retired.

[lamboguy]

i thought ICON PROJECT was a great filly. these guys are never going to stick their pride and joy in the ring to get beat up by MOHAMED ALI. she is in the race because they feel that the distance will be better than the filly and mare race, and because she trained better than she ever did going into the race. sure they are taking a shot, but they think she will either win or make a good account of herself.

the people that own her can't wait to breed her and have her babies on the track. those horses mean alot to mr. and mrs jerry moss, they are taking no crazy shots. that guy is a multimillionaire and don't need money at all and never will.

[Hanover1]

i thought ICON PROJECT was a great filly. these guys are never going to stick their pride and joy in the ring to get beat up by MOHAMED ALI. she is in the race because they feel that the distance will be better than the filly and mare race, and because she trained better than she ever did going into the race. sure they are taking a shot, but they think she will either win or make a good account of herself.

the people that own her can't wait to breed her and have her babies on the track. those horses mean alot to mr. and mrs jerry moss, they are taking no crazy shots. that guy is a multimillionaire and don't need money at all and never will.
She "trained better than she ever did" because she was asked to, not by some miracle. Her prep is typical of any trainer asking/expecting a horse to be at peak level next outing. I may be her fan, but I suspect the stopwatch is not in this instance. She deserved a shot at BCC, but it is by no means automatic....If she wins Saturday, its the best race of the 2 to win-if she loses, ditto.......choice was a no-brainer imo.

[OntheRail]

He's running in the Classic because he knows his horse can't win the Distaff. He knows she won't run down Careless Jewel, so he opts for the race that will not hurt her reputation when she loses.

If by some miracle she does win, than he can tell the world how she is the best horse on the planet.

It's a no lose situation, unless she finishes in the bottom three.
I also agree with this and have said so else where. She is a fine animal but has run against the same basic crew all year (3 races).... and won by less and less each time. She just barley squeaked the last one out. So she looks vulnerable in the Distaff to me. What to do? So run her in the BC if she hits the board she still has that glow of a winner. Come up short of 1st in the Distaff and the luster is off. Zen doesn't have HOTY rolled up... she will be Older Female Champion for sure and if by some Miracle she win the BC she'll get some life time achievement title. But HOTY belongs to RA even the Bird's can not take that away with a win in the BC.

[statik27]

I also agree with this and have said so else where. She is a fine animal but has run against the same basic crew all year (3 races).... and won by less and less each time. She just barley squeaked the last one out. So she looks vulnerable in the Distaff to me. What to do? So run her in the BC if she hits the board she still has that glow of a winner. Come up short of 1st in the Distaff and the luster is off. Zen doesn't have HOTY rolled up... she will be Older Female Champion for sure and if by some Miracle she win the BC she'll get some life time achievement title. But HOTY belongs to RA even the Bird's can not take that away with a win in the BC.


"Barely squeaked the last one out?"

She won in a hand ride with her ears pricked in her last race. Yeah she was really all in at the wire.

[bks]

Look, if people actually believe she's ducking Careless Jewel, a horse who has never even tried stakes quality older horses - what can you say? Careless Jewel probably isn't going to beat the other fillies in the race, who Zenyatta would likely destroy, and yet we're asked to conclude that Zenyatta is afraid of Careless Jewel, and therefore risking an off-the-board finish in the Classic.

Not likely.

[bks]

and another thing: one suspects that this anti-Zenyatta idiocy is a reaction to the supposed audacity of those of us who dare think she's superior to Rachel Alexandra.

So for the record: if RA was in the Classic, which she's not because of the entirely made-up excuse about Curlin's failure on synthetics, she would have no shot (that's zero) to win. There is literally no chance she could carry her speed 1 1/4 miles on Pro-ride against a much tougher field like this, when she was absolutely life-and-death to beat the decent-quality G1 field in the Woodward. Several horses would pass her in the last furlong in this Classic.

Zenyatta may well not win, but she can, you see. Both because she's there, and Rachel is not, and more pointedly because her style, her build and her quality make her a contender.

Rachel, on the other hand, who had a much better year and who should be HOY no matter what happens in the Classic, would not be a contender in this race, despite her obvious quality. That's because she has obvious limitations. Rags to Riches did not. She could run all day. So, too, may Zenyatta be able to. Rachel, alas, cannot.

And so if Zenyatta wins the Classic, the fair conclusion to draw is: while she's not Horse of the Year, she is a superior horse to RA.

[lamboguy]

these people that are with ZENYATTA are in this race because they think they can win it. they could have come up with a phony injury, they didn't and they won't. these people got alot of class and love for their horses.

[FastAndFurious]

and another thing: one suspects that this anti-Zenyatta idiocy is a reaction to the supposed audacity of those of us who dare think she's superior to Rachel Alexandra.

So for the record: if RA was in the Classic, which she's not because of the entirely made-up excuse about Curlin's failure on synthetics, she would have no shot (that's zero) to win. There is literally no chance she could carry her speed 1 1/4 miles on Pro-ride against a much tougher field like this, when she was absolutely life-and-death to beat the decent-quality G1 field in the Woodward. Several horses would pass her in the last furlong in this Classic.

Zenyatta may well not win, but she can, you see. Both because she's there, and Rachel is not, and more pointedly because her style, her build and her quality make her a contender.

Rachel, on the other hand, who had a much better year and who should be HOY no matter what happens in the Classic, would not be a contender in this race, despite her obvious quality. That's because she has obvious limitations. Rags to Riches did not. She could run all day. So, too, may Zenyatta be able to. Rachel, alas, cannot.

And so if Zenyatta wins the Classic, the fair conclusion to draw is: while she's not Horse of the Year, she is a superior horse to RA.Agree 100%

[lamboguy]

there is only 1 horse that could beat ZENYATTA in this big race and that is RIP VAN WINKLE, he might actually be a better horse than her, but he has problems with his feet and he still doesn't have the experience that over the track like the big mare. bottom line ZENYATTA is the steal of the century @5-2. you guys should hurry up and get on a plane to vegas to bet all the matchups they have with her in it. just bet early and very often and wait at the cashiers window to collect the money you will have beaten them out of.

[depalma113]

and another thing: one suspects that this anti-Zenyatta idiocy is a reaction to the supposed audacity of those of us who dare think she's superior to Rachel Alexandra.

So for the record: if RA was in the Classic, which she's not because of the entirely made-up excuse about Curlin's failure on synthetics, she would have no shot (that's zero) to win. There is literally no chance she could carry her speed 1 1/4 miles on Pro-ride against a much tougher field like this, when she was absolutely life-and-death to beat the decent-quality G1 field in the Woodward. Several horses would pass her in the last furlong in this Classic.

Zenyatta may well not win, but she can, you see. Both because she's there, and Rachel is not, and more pointedly because her style, her build and her quality make her a contender.

Rachel, on the other hand, who had a much better year and who should be HOY no matter what happens in the Classic, would not be a contender in this race, despite her obvious quality. That's because she has obvious limitations. Rags to Riches did not. She could run all day. So, too, may Zenyatta be able to. Rachel, alas, cannot.

And so if Zenyatta wins the Classic, the fair conclusion to draw is: while she's not Horse of the Year, she is a superior horse to RA.


So let me get this straight. Rachel is the only horse proven between the two beyond a mile and an eighth. Yet she has distance limitations?

Could you show me one race against fillies where you would question her ability to go a mile and a quarter? Is it the Kentucky Oaks? The Mother Goose?

In all of her attempts against fillies, she has looked far more dominating than any of Zenyatta's races.

It is because she has already faced colts that you have come to the conclusion she is somehow distance limited. Yet Zenyatta, who has not stepped away from her own sex and has looked rather ordinary at times is suddenly able to run all day against the opposite gender.

Talk about flawed logic.

As for Rags to Riches, Let Rachel Alexandra gallop 6 furlongs in 1:16 1/5 and I bet she can run a mile and a half with relative ease.

[tzipi]

there is only 1 horse that could beat ZENYATTA in this big race and that is RIP VAN WINKLE, he might actually be a better horse than her, but he has problems with his feet and he still doesn't have the experience that over the track like the big mare. bottom line ZENYATTA is the steal of the century @5-2. you guys should hurry up and get on a plane to vegas to bet all the matchups they have with her in it. just bet early and very often and wait at the cashiers window to collect the money you will have beaten them out of.

Are you serious :confused:

[Valuist]

there is only 1 horse that could beat ZENYATTA in this big race and that is RIP VAN WINKLE, he might actually be a better horse than her, but he has problems with his feet and he still doesn't have the experience that over the track like the big mare. bottom line ZENYATTA is the steal of the century @5-2. you guys should hurry up and get on a plane to vegas to bet all the matchups they have with her in it. just bet early and very often and wait at the cashiers window to collect the money you will have beaten them out of.


Let me get this straight: she's
1) Facing much tougher competition than she's ever faced before
2) Racing at a distance she's never run at
3) With her a$$ dragging running style, she figures to be fanned at least 8 wide turning for home....

and with all that, 5-2 is a bargain?

[lamboguy]

Are you serious :confused:i am more serious about this one than i was with rachel alexandra in the preakness and the woodward.

this mare is major, and i know she never beat nothing and its against my religion to like a horse like her. she don't know who she is running against and has a giant heart, that is good enough for me. throw in the surface and that makes her double tough.

to answer your question, i am serious. the best of the 3 yo crop this year was summer bird, not a bad horse, but not enough horse to beat her. she might lose the race but not to him.

[the_fat_man]

So let me get this straight. Rachel is the only horse proven between the two beyond a mile and an eighth. Yet she has distance limitations?

Could you show me one race against fillies where you would question her ability to go a mile and a quarter? Is it the Kentucky Oaks? The Mother Goose?

In all of her attempts against fillies, she has looked far more dominating than any of Zenyatta's races.

It is because she has already faced colts that you have come to the conclusion she is somehow distance limited. Yet Zenyatta, who has not stepped away from her own sex and has looked rather ordinary at times is suddenly able to run all day against the opposite gender.

Talk about flawed logic.

As for Rags to Riches, Let Rachel Alexandra gallop 6 furlongs in 1:16 1/5 and I bet she can run a mile and a half with relative ease.

The notion that RA is distance challenged is quickly starting to rival the Bernardini/Invasor BC in terms of failing to COMPREHEND the RIDICULOUSLY OBVIOUS. As hard as it may be to believe, there are still handicappers out there that just refuse to acknowledge that BERNI moved too soon in the Classic, thereby handing a very nice setup to Invasor. Equally, some, INCREDIBLY, fail to comprehend the OBVIOUS poor setups that RA got in the Preakness and the Woodward and how much of a horse she was to overcome them. Going from running against the grain, signficantly, TWICE, to being distance challenged, is a 'leap' that can only be made on these forums. Hard to keep a straight face when reading some of this stuff. On the other hand, glad to see players of this caliber are in the pools.:rolleyes:

[lamboguy]

Let me get this straight: she's
1) Facing much tougher competition than she's ever faced before
2) Racing at a distance she's never run at
3) With her a$$ dragging running style, she figures to be fanned at least 8 wide turning for home....

and with all that, 5-2 is a bargain?she is not winning this race going 5 wide around the turn, but the way i see it there will be plenty horses in front of her that will be gasping on that stuff. she might be coming up the rail when these guys tire,

[tzipi]

i am more serious about this one than i was with rachel alexandra in the preakness and the woodward.

this mare is major, and i know she never beat nothing and its against my religion to like a horse like her. she don't know who she is running against and has a giant heart, that is good enough for me. throw in the surface and that makes her double tough.

to answer your question, i am serious. the best of the 3 yo crop this year was summer bird, not a bad horse, but not enough horse to beat her. she might lose the race but not to him.


Ok so you say forget Summerbird then. You said there's only one horse maybe better than Zenyatta... Rip Van Winkle.
So you're going to put the farm on Zenyatta-Rip Van Ex box? and big money too win on her?

[lamboguy]

Ok so you say forget Summerbird then. You said there's only one horse maybe better than Zenyatta... Rip Van Winkle.
So you're going to put the farm on Zenyatta-Rip Van Ex box? and big money too win on her?i don't bet my farm on nothing, and i am not betting anything on rip van winkle. i am risking my money on her because i believe that 5-2 is a huge overlay in this situation against a horse that has never raced on this surface. no question if he takes to the surface he will be tough as nails, and i am telling you how i might lose the race ahead of time. it won't be the first horse race that i will be wrong with if the mare doesn't win. the field is full of horses where the people are puttiing up $40k a piece thinking they all have a chance at the big prize. i am only going to put up $300 to win on her and hope that i get a $900 profit to my play.

[tzipi]

i don't bet my farm on nothing, and i am not betting anything on rip van winkle. i am risking my money on her because i believe that 5-2 is a huge overlay in this situation against a horse that has never raced on this surface. no question if he takes to the surface he will be tough as nails, and i am telling you how i might lose the race ahead of time. it won't be the first horse race that i will be wrong with if the mare doesn't win. the field is full of horses where the people are puttiing up $40k a piece thinking they all have a chance at the big prize. i am only going to put up $300 to win on her and hope that i get a $900 profit to my play.


OK go for it. I don't think she'll run better than 3rd at best in this field. I think if they knew she could boss these fields,they would've run her in Pacific Classic and other big money races and would've just took down the huge purses.

5-2 is horrible,horrible value on a horse going from her races to this spot! But hey everyones allowed to bet and who says I'm right. JMO

I mean her last beyers were 99 and 97. That par for the Classic is like 112. the lowest it's been was last year at 110. She has never hit that and the closest she came was over a year ago. 5-2 scary odds.

[the_fat_man]

OK go for it. I don't think she'll run better than 3rd at best in this field. I think if they knew she could boss these fields,they would've run her in Pacific Classic and other big money races and would've just took down the huge purses.

5-2 is horrible,horrible value on a horse going from her races to this spot! But hey everyones allowed to bet and who says I'm right. JMO

There are some out there who think that Life is Sweet ran a bang up race in the Pacific; being the only horse to offer even a hint of an off the pace move. Now, Z has handled LIS whenever they've met. Of course, only the connections really know how much better Z is than LIS (based on what happens in the morning, one would presume). Maybe the connections, then, are using what happened in the Pacific to guide what they do with Z. Not saying this is correct or otherwise, clearly this is a much more difficult field than the Pacifici but it would certainly make sense.

[lamboguy]

OK go for it. I don't think she'll run better than 3rd at best in this field. I think if they knew she could boss these fields,they would've run her in Pacific Classic and other big money races and would've just took down the huge purses.

5-2 is horrible,horrible value on a horse going from her races to this spot! But hey everyones allowed to bet and who says I'm right. JMO

I mean her last beyers were 99 and 97. That par for the Classic is like 112. the lowest it's been was last year at 110. She has never hit that and the closest she came was over a year ago. 5-2 scary odds.the truth of the matter is tht i have bet every single breeders cup classic and have only had 1 winner that i can remember, it was a straight exacta on sunday silence and easy goer. and i think the trick paid about $12.00 if my memory serves me correctly. so the odds are that i am most likely wrong in my opinion of this race. these people were very good to me with GIACOMO in the kentucky derby. so my heart is with them more than my head. we were in the gold room at churhill downs for that derby and i loved giacomo and afleet ales, and my wife liked closing arguement because she is in the legal profession. if i put the 3 together in the trifecta i would have gotted back $100k that day. i had a good bet on giacomo to win though.

i liked giacomo because he was a holly bull horse, and holly bull was my favorite horse of all time. even more than funnycide.

[OntheRail]

she is not winning this race going 5 wide around the turn, but the way i see it there will be plenty horses in front of her that will be gasping on that stuff. she might be coming up the rail when these guys tire,

Only if she dumps Mike... I think he has a phobia about the rail :lol: .

I think she finished behind Colonel John.

[joanied]

I read some notes from a link that andymays provided...seems that RVW, this morning on track, was totally washed out..and it was a cool morning...that tells me maybe this guy isn't 100%...maybe his feet are hurting and that made him wash out...but, I think it's something to consider in the Classic.

[WinterTriangle]

3) With her a$$ dragging running style, she figures to be fanned at least 8 wide turning for home....

So, you give no credit to how much ground she covers/inhales with that big stride she has........on a track she loves?

[bisket]

this she might be coming up the rail stuff isn't going to happen. the primary reason i don't like zen is because as far as racing development is concerned she's at about a three year old colt in april. she's NEVER RUN INSIDE HORSES. i don't see that happenning saturday. plain and simple in a full field of seasoned handicap horses if you expect to win you have to have a level of versatility that she doesn't have. she's not going to be able to circle this crowd and win. the way they campagned zen will come back to haunt them in this race. she has never been in a race where she's had to go inside horses and until i see a horse do it i don't believe they will. there have been plenty of races where she would have been much better off going inside a horse, and it hasn't happened. the only way she wins this is if she's much the best. which quite frankle she's not. if she had some versatility to her running style she would be the play. her running style reminds me of another can't miss horse in this race last year :eek: yup its a fact!!

[tzipi]

Yeah,Curlins move worked on dirt but didn't work on the synth. Euros knew that too. That's why they said they would've ducked Curlin if BC was at CD or place with dirt.

[lamboguy]

this she might be coming up the rail stuff isn't going to happen. the primary reason i don't like zen is because as far as racing development is concerned she's at about a three year old colt in april. she's NEVER RUN INSIDE HORSES. i don't see that happenning saturday. plain and simple in a full field of seasoned handicap horses if you expect to win you have to have a level of versatility that she doesn't have. she's not going to be able to circle this crowd and win. the way they campagned zen will come back to haunt them in this race. she has never been in a race where she's had to go inside horses and until i see a horse do it i don't believe they will. there have been plenty of races where she would have been much better off going inside a horse, and it hasn't happened. the only way she wins this is if she's much the best. which quite frankle she's not. if she had some versatility to her running style she would be the play. her running style reminds me of another can't miss horse in this race last year :eek: yup its a fact!!when she ran against the girls she ran against much weaker horses, so she was able to go wide around the far turn. this race will have some horses that are very competetive trying to win the race and get real tired and will go wide, i would say that at least 5 of them wil suffer that fate. if Z hugs the rail on the far turn and straightens out she should be past the tired horses and be able to swing out and pass the rest of them.

[joanied]

So, you give no credit to how much ground she covers/inhales with that big stride she has........on a track she loves?

:ThmbUp: She'll go wide...I also beleive Mike will never take the rail with her...even when she works in company, she's on the outside...but, IMO, it isn't a 'fault' as so many think...as Winter T said...she inhales the ground...so I doubt that will be a problem for her...one thing that prob'ly will happen, is a couple of those jocks will try fanning her wider than she's ever been...Mike is going to have to make this a 'perfect trip'...and I beleive she's going to win...might be by a nose, but she'll get #14:ThmbUp:
hey..if the rail is open at all...Calvin will take that route:D

[Niko]

I'm not sure why they didn't run her in the filly Classic. I thought she stood a much better chance of winning that one and the race set up nicely for her.

My huge problem with her...according to Bris and CJ she was a better horse last year. You have to be at your top to win this race...I'd be surprised to see a top 2-3 finish from her, even with the great late closing kick...but they know her better than I do.

I doubt they're looking for an excuse but it is a very interesting time to decide to go against the boys? I'm expecting Summer Bird to throw in less than a top effort too so should be a good betting race...

[lamboguy]

summer bird got his ticket to this race by winning the jockey club gold cup as a 3 yo. the horse that ran second to him was another 3 yo quality road. quality road never impressed me. summer bird is one game animal and is getting better and better so i would never count him out. not likely to beet the Z-lady though.

[bks]

The notion that RA is distance challenged is quickly starting to rival the Bernardini/Invasor BC in terms of failing to COMPREHEND the RIDICULOUSLY OBVIOUS. As hard as it may be to believe, there are still handicappers out there that just refuse to acknowledge that BERNI moved too soon in the Classic, thereby handing a very nice setup to Invasor. Equally, some, INCREDIBLY, fail to comprehend the OBVIOUS poor setups that RA got in the Preakness and the Woodward and how much of a horse she was to overcome them. Going from running against the grain, signficantly, TWICE, to being distance challenged, is a 'leap' that can only be made on these forums. Hard to keep a straight face when reading some of this stuff. On the other hand, glad to see players of this caliber are in the pools

I'll grant the point about Rachel's set-ups, but only to an extent. You're exaggerating the circumstances. In the Preakness, for instance, she was headed every step, I understand, but against far inferior horses. Big Drama? Friesan Fire? They only went 1:11 flat. She came home in 44.07. That's simply not world class time on a fast track. Big Drama, who is nothing much, was only beaten five lengths, so it wasn't so terribly against the grain.

The key point is: in what serious GI race against males would she ever see a significantly weaker pace scenario? Classic-distance races featuring top horses typically unfold at rapid paces. In this Classic, she would figure to have to deal with Quality Road and Regal Ransom for the entire race on or near the lead, with two waves of mid-pack finishers and deep closers behind. Three or four of them at least are better than anything that ran at her in the Woodward.

[bks]

Well, Zenyatta sure had reason to fear Careless Jewel.

She might have only beat her by 30 lengths.

[lamboguy]

when she ran against the girls she ran against much weaker horses, so she was able to go wide around the far turn. this race will have some horses that are very competetive trying to win the race and get real tired and will go wide, i would say that at least 5 of them wil suffer that fate. if Z hugs the rail on the far turn and straightens out she should be past the tired horses and be able to swing out and pass the rest of them.i think this is basically what the jockey instructions turned out to be. i never spoke to anyone associated with ZENYATTA before the race, i just assumed that was going to be the instructions based on their training methods going into the race.

sherriffs did a superb job with that one as he usually does

[lamboguy]

i just read this whole thread, i found it quite interesting of those that had differnet observations prior to the race. this is truly what makes horseracing a great sport and should live on and on and on. it is much better than sitting infront of a stupid slot machine and sticking money in it like a zombie. with horseracing you learn new things each and every day and it is certainly mind stimulating and challenging. i hope the people that run this sport realise it and build from it.

i still bought horses this year even in the downturn of the business and i hope to be selling future champions of the sport this year and the years to follow.

[Niko]

yes and thanks lamboguy for buying more horses!! Game wouldn't survive without people like you.