Zen in BCC at 5/2 odds?

[Hanover1]

Nothing to lose and everything to gain seems to be the take from the Moss camp at this point. Lots of the entrants going off at 12-1 early lines. How many of us will watch tote board for action, or as myself, it does'nt matter? As good a betting race as you would want imo...value players should be happy here? I see a gift in the making.

[bks]

Last year sure was a gift (though I admit to using Curlin as well).

John Gosden was 2-2 last year. His horses merit an extra look.

[lamboguy]

personally, i think she is an overlay@5-2. this is her home court.

[big frank]

personally, i think she is an overlay@5-2. this is her home court. Overlay @ 5/2 ????? You have to be kidding ! She has a shot to win but her true odds should be something like 6-1 !

[Java Gold@TFT]

Overlay @ 5/2 ????? You have to be kidding ! She has a shot to win but her true odds should be something like 6-1 !
:ThmbUp:

I'm with big frank. In the BCC you don't make a horse the favorite that is trying to do things they have never done before - 10F, males and having a horse like Mine That Bird dicatate her pace. In her race in the Hirsch Mike Smith was only looking out for Life Is Sweet. He pegged Zenyatta to her side and didn't worry about what was going on up front. She won that one by a head over an allowance horse. Horses like Summer Bird and Quality Road will be a lot closer to the pace. She will also have to get past Gio Ponti, Rip Van Winkle and Einstein.

There is a parallel in golf. Going into Sunday a player can think he has a shot at winning if he is 3 strokes back. The bigger problem comes from the number of players who are 1 or 2 strokes back and how you overcome so many QUALITY players in front of you. You have to have the perfect storm to overcome that many good horses in front of you that probabaly went through a moderate pace. IMO, 5-1 would be a square value on Zenyatta. 5-2 - no way.

[PaceAdvantage]

Sometimes (well, ok, LOTS of times) I think lamboguy really enjoys pulling legs...:lol:

[lamboguy]

that mare is a pure win machine. in her prior 14 wins she has never trained as well as she has going into this race according to her trainer. CURLIN went off at a short price and didn't train as well plus he was never on this synthetic surface. throw in the probable pace to this race even though its better horses than she has ever faced, it is as favorable to her as she could possiibly ask for.


the guy that made the morning line probably took all that into account and the fact that she will get alot of sentimental money bet on her. if the track plays the right way for her she will get her picture taken on saturday.

[lamboguy]

in the 2 yo fillie race friday NEGLIGEE is up and at em these days, aside from coming out of a tough race she is training up a storm in southern california and according to my buddies in new hampshire, they claim she likes the synthetic better than dirt.

for the 2 yo colts i like d'funnybone. he looks like he is peaking at the right time to me the same way dick dutrow gets all his good horses to run to their best.


out of sentiment i am going to root for angel penna and diamondrella. i cashed on that horse a few times so i am going to give it another whirl

[lamboguy]

in the 2 yo fillie race friday NEGLIGEE is up and at em these days, aside from coming out of a tough race she is training up a storm in southern california and according to my buddies in new hampshire, they claim she likes the synthetic better than dirt.

for the 2 yo colts i like d'funnybone. he looks like he is peaking at the right time to me the same way dick dutrow gets all his good horses to run to their best.


out of sentiment i am going to root for angel penna and diamondrella. i cashed on that horse a few times so i am going to give it another whirli forgot, i love house of grace in the jvenile filly turf race friday. she ran a monster race race on synthetic and loves turf more.

[classhandicapper]

A few thoughts.

1. This is a massively tougher field than the one Rachel Alexandra beat in the Woodward. Excluding Rachel, there are probably 1/2 dozen horses in the race that would be 3-5 in the field she beat and most of the rest would be major contenders (surface considerations aside).

2. Typically, even the greatest fillies ever are badly overmatched in races like the Breeder's Cup where the best older horses in the word and greatest peaking 3Yos are all entered.

3. Most figure handicappers are underrating Zenyatta's ability

4. IMHO, Zenyatta is primed for a peak effort.

5. This is was discussed elsewhere, but IMHO fillies have a much better chance of beating high level colts on turf than on dirt. Given that this is synthetic track that plays a little like turf, I think that gives Zenyatta a better chance to pull off this off than if the race was on dirt.

6. It's at least even money that with Mike Smith riding she loses a ton of ground. That makes it possible she runs one of the best races (maybe even best) but gets beat anyway.

7. IMHO, 5-2 is an obvious underlay. However, I wouldn't be inclined to totally throw her out of all exotics if I had an overlay elsewhere.

[Fingal]

Remember, the job of the Morning Line Maker ( in this case Jon White ) is to ESTIMATE what price the public will make her, it's not his job to come up with the chance of each contestant to win.

[46zilzal]

2. Typically, even the greatest fillies ever are badly overmatched in races like the Breeder's Cup where the best older horses in the word and greatest peaking 3Yos are all entered.


Lady's Secret, Miesque, Pebbles, Ridgewood Pearl, Royal Heroine, Safely Kept, Very Subtle, Banks Hill, Unbridled Elaine, Ajina, Dance smartly, Sacahuista to name just a few who did very well at a young age against elders.

[Charlie D]

7. IMHO, 5-2 is an obvious underlay. However, I wouldn't be inclined to totally throw her out of all exotics if I had an overlay elsewhere.


Think CH is spot on here.


Though her price is probably going to be short, She is not a no hoper

[rokitman]

Not a no hoper but her hopes will be, at best, 50% of the hope reflected in her price.

[classhandicapper]

Lady's Secret, Miesque, Pebbles, Ridgewood Pearl, Royal Heroine, Safely Kept, Very Subtle, Banks Hill, Unbridled Elaine, Ajina, Dance smartly, Sacahuista to name just a few who did very well at a young age against elders.

I expressed my detailed views on this in another thread.

The quick version is that the gap between Grade 1 fillies and colts is narrower in sprints, in the spring 3YO classics when the fillies are relatively ahead of the colts in physical maturity, definitely for 2YOs, and on turf. I think I know why this is true of turf and sprints, but that's not so important.

All that said, I can't think of a single filly I would have made the favorite in just about any of the the BC Classics on DIRT. Those fields are invariable extremely talented and deep because they contain both the best older horses and the best peaking 3YOs from all parts of the world. The typical Grade 1 race for colts has a much narrower group of top horses. A top filly can sometimes catch a weak Grade 1 race for colts on dirt, but almost never in the Classic.

[big frank]

ok overlay, dave s , and others,,, what is your line on Zenyata ?