betting Penn National at twinspires.com

[porchy44]

Watching Twinspires daily double payout probabilities for Penn National. 1 horse wins race 8 at 35/1 . 1-2 double is paying $779. 30 seconds after race payout possibility changes to $669. another 30 seconds later (1 minute after race) payout changes to $373.

What do you think ? Late money coming in from "other hubs", or is Twinspires late updating payout possibilities ?
BTW, the 2 horse wins 9th race.

[lamboguy]

you just stumped me on that one. i got no explanation

[Horseplayersbet.com]

The pool was only $10,000. That means there were only around 40 $1 tickets sold. Also, most of the $10,000 (probably over 75% of it) came in during the last two minutes. A couple of people coming in with $10 tickets could have destroyed the odds very easily.
The odds on the 1 horse were 21-1 at 2 mtp, 25-1 at 1 mtp, and 30-1 at 0 mtp, and 35-1 final.

Looking at that alone, I doubt anyone played after the bell went off.

[lamboguy]

those guys with the $10 doubles were real smart to pick a $75 horse. congradulations to all those late $10 double players at penn national again this evening. i have alot of confidence in these late $10 double players, they seem to pick the right $75 horse right at penn national alot lately.

[magwell]

those guys with the $10 doubles were real smart to pick a $75 horse. congradulations to all those late $10 double players at penn national again this evening. i have alot of confidence in these late $10 double players, they seem to pick the right $75 horse right at penn national alot lately. Now this is the top quote of the year.... wins as much the best..... :D

[proximity]

What do you think ? Late money coming in from "other hubs", or is Twinspires late updating payout possibilities ?
BTW, the 2 horse wins 9th race.

i think the double still paid about 2x what it "should" have for a 37-1 and an 8-5.:)

[Horseplayersbet.com]

those guys with the $10 doubles were real smart to pick a $75 horse. congradulations to all those late $10 double players at penn national again this evening. i have alot of confidence in these late $10 double players, they seem to pick the right $75 horse right at penn national alot lately.
If you are insinuating past posting, how do you explain the odds of the horse going up in the last call? Past posters are going to focus on win and place over exotics. This was clearly not a past posting situation. The horses odds came close to doubling from 2 mtp to final, while the double came down to reality prices during that time.
As pointed out the double still paid well over the parlay price.

[lamboguy]

If you are insinuating past posting, how do you explain the odds of the horse going up in the last call? Past posters are going to focus on win and place over exotics. This was clearly not a past posting situation. The horses odds came close to doubling from 2 mtp to final, while the double came down to reality prices during that time.
As pointed out the double still paid well over the parlay price.i kinda agree with you on that one. to be honest with you i have not been seeing the magnatude of odds changes lately that i used to see on a very frequent basis.

penn national has had a history of suspicious drops in exacta and double odds that one will always doubt the legitamacy of their parimutual pools.

one thing that has not changed are the low payoffs in the blind pools like trifecta's and super's. those are still out there. to give someone some credit, KEENELAND had very fair payoffs this past meet on their blind pools unlike prior meets. i don't know if they have implemented more secure procedures or the person or person's that could get into those pools were stopped or stopped on their own.

[Horseplayersbet.com]

i kinda agree with you on that one. to be honest with you i have not been seeing the magnatude of odds changes lately that i used to see on a very frequent basis.

penn national has had a history of suspicious drops in exacta and double odds that one will always doubt the legitamacy of their parimutual pools.

one thing that has not changed are the low payoffs in the blind pools like trifecta's and super's. those are still out there. to give someone some credit, KEENELAND had very fair payoffs this past meet on their blind pools unlike prior meets. i don't know if they have implemented more secure procedures or the person or person's that could get into those pools were stopped or stopped on their own.
The pools aren't so large at Penn. I find their odds do change a lot more than other tracks do within the last couple of minutes.
As for low tri and super payoffs, I think that has to do with 30-31% takeouts more than anything else :)
It is much easier to have fairer payoffs when the takeout is 19% as it is at Keeneland.

[startngate]

Seeing as the horse that won the second leg was the chalk in the race, I'm guessing the 'lower' double payout was due to people wheeling that favorite and getting lucky that a longshot won the first leg.

Would highly doubt that many of the people cashing double tickets actually picked the winner of the first leg.