andycap-Check this out!

[Tom]

http://www.cigaraficionado.com/Cigar/Aficionado/people/fm996.html

[PaceAdvantage]

Damn, another good link!!! Thanks for a good read!!

Beyer sure is a popular guy after all these years.....LOL


==PA

They should make a Kentucky Derby cigar and name it the Beyer cause all his Derby picks get smoked.

Nice to see he's still an arrogant A-hole .I wouldn't be surprised the jock knew he was on a Beyer pick and decided to screw it up just to hear him scream......

Wonder where Sheldon Kovitz is now..........

[Dave Schwartz]

SuperFecta,

LOL - that was funny.

Thanks.
Dave Schwartz

[andicap]

Thanks for bringing this to my attention, Tom. Now here's MY rant:

Unlike a lot of players in this game, I have a ton of respect for Andy Beyer and even consider him kind of a latter-day Runyonesque type of charactor, one that racing should promote the way that football did Deion Sanders.
This hatred of Beyer -- I've heard it at the racetracks, seen it on bulletin board -- is nothing but jealousy, plain and simple.
This is a man who has walked the talk. Unlike other "expert" authors who are pretty much frauds Beyer has authentically made millions over the course of 30 years. He is an excellent writer and is passionate about the sport. His books are great reads. His columns are knowledgable and incisive even if I don't always agree with him. He's not always out for the $2 bettor, but he's certainly not an apologist for the racetracks.
He's not afraid to attack sacred cows in the sport -- he foolishly attacked the concept of pace in his first book, but hey, so does Ragozin.
Beyer is a winner and a lot of people can't accept it. So he's got a lousy record on the Derby? So what. It's one bet a year and not at all representative -- how many races are run at 10f with 3 yr olds who've never run that far?
People get upset because he gets a lot of publicity in a sport where that's historically been frowned upon. Yes he's outspoken and bombastic. Doesn't racing NEED charactors like that to bring back the glory years?
Racing has no charisma except in its horses and you can't count on them because they get hurt all the time nowadays.
I dislike Lukas intensely but at least he gets press. Zito is overrated by the mainstream press because he's won two Derbys (and Go for Gin was blind luck), but at least people are writing about him.
I say more power to Beyer and the more press Beyer, Ernie Dahlmann or anyone else in this sport can get the better it is for all of us who need fresh money to keep flowing into the toteboards.
Marketers and PR people run the world -- deal with it.

[Tim]

andicap,

Nice post, well put.

[Dave Schwartz]

FWIW-

In retrospect, I think I should have spoken up as well, but Superfecta's post was just so... well, funny.

I agree with Andicap. First, he is my favorite writer... I really enjoy reading his books. His approach to speed handicapping is, of course, the text book which most people who make numbers use.

Finally, he IS a doer rather than a talker. To his credit, at least he stands up and gives his opinion.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[Tom]

andycap,

I agree 100%. Beyer boldly went where no man went before. And he puts his money where his mouth is.
And when the facts prove him, as in pace, he accepts it and moves on. this guy is a player.
I saw in action at the Laurel Sports Palace during a Sartin outing a few years ago and he was the picture of a man totally engrossed in his game. It was inspiring.
And his figures, no matter how much complaining is done about them, I think are the most significant advancement in this game in many years. The fact to so many people don't have clue how to use them is great.
Hats off to Andy.

Tom

[BIG HIT]

You guys are right like it or not he is the man same for lukas he has wonalmost all the big ones.I like to see all the pro handicapper face off for a big prize.Like they use to do on tv for shooting pool and poker sure would help the sport.And create more interest.

[andicap]

That is a great idea, Big Hit!
They have those contests in Nevada and Penn National, but why doesn't the NTRA publicize a huge national contest (more than just in the racing pubs like the DRF one is) with all sorts of marketing and a huge giveaway to the winner.
They can have a contest to have some "regular people" in there and have the winner go on the talk show circuit.

[BIG HIT]

YEA that sounds good but you and i know they are satisfied with crying poor mouth.And rakeing in there profits.Heck it would help if they treated you like they do in the casinos.They at least act like they care and do not act like they are doing you a favor by takeing your money.Before the track here in michigan was sold they and the harness tracks motto.Was come out and play your number.Instead of promoteing handicapping in a positive way.Although the biggest thing with horse racing crowed is no one ever wants to admit they were wrong.It is always jocky stiffed the horse or other excuse you have herd

[tanda]

I would like to see how many of the DRF columnists and handicappers actually 1) bet significant money at the track and 2) win consistently.

I suspect Steve Klein and Dave Litfin do both. I have serious doubts about any others.

Here are the guys who probably have no clue, in my opinion: Jay Privman (have you seen this guy on TV?" I like [insert name of favorite]") and Brad Free.

Another guy with a name but no substance: Mike Battaglia. At the Derby he was gushing about Point Given. Then at the Preakness he said "I was a Point Given man, now I am a Monarchos man."

Okay, Mike. I am sure that before the Jim Dandy he loved Congaree at those juicy odds of 2:5 but now he is on the Scorpion bandwagon!

Unfortunately for Mike, he does not realize that liking a horse after he has won or peaked is less profitable than liking him before hand. Or that the ability to anticpate change is difficult, hence his attachment to the past and status quo.

Why can't any of these guys say the following: "Obviously, Point Given is the best horse in the race, but he is an underlay and, thus, cannot be supported. The following horse, although not as good as Point Given, has a chance to win (better yet give a percentage estimate) for the following reasons ... . Since he is going off at 11:1, he represents much more value than Point Given." or "Point Given is the best and there is no ther value in the field, so pass the race."

Oh, I know why. Because it would be intelligent and helpful.

[BIG HIT]

Like I should have said before some people go to track just to have fun.Pick a few winners reguard less of price.But as for the rest I think would rathier feel the race was fixed or jocky stiffed the horse.Than say they picked wrong horse.And yes they have know nothing people for most part filling inbetween race.But maybe some day they will really do things right.

[PaceAdvantage]

tanda,

I suspect you should be a big fan of NBCs Bob Neumier....I know I am....

He's one of the best racing commentators on TV in my opinion. Always knows what he's talking about, always delivers well (sometimes I'm shocked by the delivery of some of the people on TV covering racing), and isn't afraid to bet against the favorite.....


==PA

[Richard]

Yes indeed,it was a very good read.Has inspired me to break out my old copy of PICKING WINNERS(on the cover,he still has hair on top)and give it a serious re-read.

[Rick Ransom]

Last time I checked, which was quite a while ago, several DRF handicappers were losing less than 10% on all of their top selections. That's not really that bad considering that their main objective is to pick a high percentage of winners and their selections are available to the public and therefore affect the odds. Now I'm not saying they're all good, but if you get 4-1 or better on one of these top handicappers you have a pretty good bet for doing absolutely no handicapping yourself. Most novice handicappers would be better off by following this approach than by making their own selections.

I like the fact so many are Beyer fans,I'm not ,but to each his own.
I don't think Beyer makes as much at the track as one would think.I think he is like most experts,he makes his money telling others how to do it.
His stories of winning thousands of dollars on a race are great stories ,but they strike me as bad risks.
His story of winning the twin tri to the tune of $134,161sounds good til he mentions he spent $4578 to get it . To me thats a return of 30-1.
The rough odds of hitting a twin tri in a 12 horse race in each leg is 1,742,000 -1.Even with the best handicapping,thats not a wise wager.What is also not said ,is how many times did he bet a few grand and bust out on the first leg?
I think he is one of those types of racetrack life that I don't want to be around.
Those types that brag on their bets too much,the size,and when they win they rub it in.
And when they lose ,they let you know how they were screwed by a bad ride by the jockey.If they aren't busy punching holes in the wall.
But he has the racing world buying into the value of his speed figs,so I got to give him credit on that one.

[hurrikane]

Super...I've been with Beyer at the races and I haven't seen him act the way you describe at all.

I always wonder why people make gross assumptions about people based on so little information.

[Rick Ransom]

We'll never know wheter Beyer is a winning player or not because he doesn't need to win. I read somewhere that he makes over $100,000 per year just working for the Washington Post. The guy is a celebrity, and probably is a money magnet anywhere he goes. I met him in Las Vegas in Gambler's Book Shop where he autographed my copy of "Beyer on Speed". He didn't seem like an arrogant guy at all, but I'm sure he was being paid to be there.

The really interesting question for me is why does one guy become well known, while another one who's a brilliant handicapper never goes anywhere. It reminds me of Jimmy the Greek and football. He was never a good linemaker or handicapper but was apparently very good at self-promotion, and was on TV for years acting like an expert. Of course, he did later self destruct by not following the celebrity code of conduct.

[tanda]

Rick,

How 'bout Danny Sheridan? He stinks in my opinion.

For example, he usually makes a last place team in baseball 200:1 or something to win the pennant. In all of baseball history, there are numerous teams who have gone last to first in one year to win a division, pennant or World Series.

In fact, the story occurs about once a decade. In 1991, TWO teams did it in the same year. So, if you flat bet all last place teams at Sheridan's odds (some as high as 500:1), you could make a killing.

Oh, yeah. You cannot flat bet his odds because no legitimate book uses them. I wonder why? The USA Today seems to think he is an expert. Maybe they should book bets using his odds for a while. I am sure we would surely see the last of him soon thereafter.

F. Lee Bailey is a terrible attorney (and a crook), but famous.

George Hamilton. Why is he famous? I think he is famous for being famous.

There are a lot of Jimmy the Greeks out there.

[Tom]

I think Andy earned his position. He wrote one of many books at the time, but a lot of serious handicappers started making their own figs and started winning with them.
His stuff caught on because it worked. His type of speed figure was not the easiest to understand or make, so it was probably their value that sold them.
I think the biggest problem with speed figures is that most people don't know how to use them. It is not jsut as simple as bet the best last race number. The figure must be used in a handicapping sense and most people don't understand this.
Tom

I had the pleasure of attending an open-air seminar featuring Andy Beyer about 7 years ago. It was a pre-race event that had been well-publicized and was drew quite a large crowd of handicappers.

I don't know about your tracks but at mine (Hastings Park) these things usually degenerate into the moderator asking "Who do you like"; and the guest responding with "the 3, the 4 and the 6"...real gut-wrenching profundity!! Well, the moderator asked the question, and Beyer wouldn't let him get away with it. Instead, he went into a race-by-race analysis of the card, describing not who he liked as much as letting you know the thought process that he went thru on his way to the answer.

All this at a cheesy little bull-ring with a (maybe) $50k/race handle.

I was very impressed by the amount of work that must have gone into his analysis; while not a particular fan of his before this event, I came away wishing that Hastings Park (and every other troubled track) had a clone of him around all the time.

I think if tracks took to heart as a mandate that trying to make handicappers better rather than "giving" them picks is the way to go, they might just be on the way to getting out of the s..t they've dug themselves into.

Beyer was entertaining, educational, and made a rather mundane racing card exciting just by so obviously caring about it. I can still hear his full-throated " In the third race, the 6 horse is the kind of animal I live and die with. And here's why."

Mikekk

[Tom]

My friend and I drove to Commodore Downs in western Penn years ago to see Andy Beyer handicap the whole race card. This right after his first book was published.
He went 0-9 on the day. But the hot dogs were good. In his defense, most of the horses there probably had more Beyer-bagels than numbers. The Beyers were not available to the public back then.
His partner, Mark Hopkins, was guest at Finger Lakes twice that I saw and he was awesome. The first time, he took time to answer lot of in-depth questions for about the making of the numbers and how to adjust for one turn routes, etc. He was a very friendly guy and totally down to earth. He also gave out two 7-1 shots back to back and a 12-1 winner plus a 22-1 place horse.
This guy should write a book-he is really a player with the numbers and I think he has a lot of insights into this game.

[andicap]

Hopkins and many of those other guys aren't solely numbers-oriented. They look at trainer patterns, track biases, trips, etc. They are smart, well-rounded handicappers.

Originally posted by hurrikane
Super...I've been with Beyer at the races and I haven't seen him act the way you describe at all.

I always wonder why people make gross assumptions about people based on so little information.

Well,I got the stories from his books, reiterated by Davadowitz in his book,Beyer describing how he would jump on a table and say "I'm king of the world!,"I wouldn't tell my mother who I like in this race,"and the words "and jockeys wonder why we hate them "is his explaination for losses in Beyer on Speed.If I have the man himself describing his actions why do I need to make assumptions ?
I just get the feeling he would be someone I would not like to talk racing with,but to tell the truth,I don't think I would like to talk to most of the authors that have written books on horseracing.Too much of "those who can, do .Those who can't ,teach.I guess<G>
Exceptions I can think of : Pizzola and Schmidt

(That sound you hear is the sound of serious
asskissing going on)

[Rick Ransom]

OK, would any of you guys turn down an opportunity to get paid for your opinions on horse racing? How about getting paid for doing speed ratings? Beyer and others are doing what they're getting paid the most to do, and there's nobody stopping them from still playing horses. I'll bet that most of the winning horseplayers are working at other jobs, either because they can make more doing something else or they can't tolerate the risk involved.

The full-time players I've known lived very inexpensively because a bad year might be half the income of a good year. Some have pensions or other investment income backing them up. Most don't have huge bankrolls unless they're lucky enough to have won a Pick 6 sometime in the past.

Some of the most well known succesful players of the past have gone into other investments like the stock market or real estate. Sometimes it's because they lost their edge and sometimes it's because they accumulated enough money where they couldn't bet enough into parimutuel pools to get a worthwhile return on their time invested. Some are making more by selling software than by using it.

Hey, I'll tell you what. If each of you sends me $100 a month, I'll promise to stop playing horses and tell you everything I know.