johnhannibalsmith
11-02-2009, 03:08 PM
...on an othewise uninspiring Monday card at TuP, there appeared two potential candidates for big efforts at long prices.
Race 4: #7 Scofield Honour (8-1) - Finds a non-descript field at a distance which can probably allow him to meander into the mix at a bigger price than probably warranted. Should be 6-1; at 10-1 or so, he's worth taking a skeptical stab at as a "weak" key, but skeptical at any price of winning, so creativity is a must.
Race 5: #3 Red Neck Bill (12-1) - Been in horrendous form lately, but almost too bad to believe. Trainer is hardly keen on perceveiring relentlesly without hope, so he's one I've been expecting a bounce-back type effort from. Definitely can't take a small number, but double digits on one known to jam up for a big piece at a big number on grass is worth a swing.
I thought the one legitimate play probably involved a pick three hoping to single on one in a deep field that might not stand out as a sequence single. That single, Shotski, in race 6, catches a pretty mundane field, but one where he seems a tough single. Maybe I'm misleading myself, but he seems the logical in a sequence to me, largely because I don't see him as a strong single on many other tickets.
The two lead in races, races four and five, also the two where I found a pair of 'wake-up' plays largely because the fields appeared ripe for a horse to capitalize on an intangible hard to spot in the form - I finally decided just to wheel for the $64. I found a horse or two or three that I could toss, but not confidently given the context of the race, and ultimately those horses offered strong value.
In the end, I envisioned a scenario where Shotski could loom the best bet of the day, but go postward at even money or thereabouts. I think if this pick three can avoid at least one of the most obvious runners in leg one or two, $128 seems a bottom-end return on a pick three, which represents even money.
On the other end of the spectrum, it seems one of the more likely sequences to produce a pair of mid-priced runners, or at least one big number as a lead in, in which case it would seem 3-1 or 4-1 is a hopeful, but realistic return for an uninspired pick three play on an uninspiring card.
R4: *-*-9 ($64)
Race 4: #7 Scofield Honour (8-1) - Finds a non-descript field at a distance which can probably allow him to meander into the mix at a bigger price than probably warranted. Should be 6-1; at 10-1 or so, he's worth taking a skeptical stab at as a "weak" key, but skeptical at any price of winning, so creativity is a must.
Race 5: #3 Red Neck Bill (12-1) - Been in horrendous form lately, but almost too bad to believe. Trainer is hardly keen on perceveiring relentlesly without hope, so he's one I've been expecting a bounce-back type effort from. Definitely can't take a small number, but double digits on one known to jam up for a big piece at a big number on grass is worth a swing.
I thought the one legitimate play probably involved a pick three hoping to single on one in a deep field that might not stand out as a sequence single. That single, Shotski, in race 6, catches a pretty mundane field, but one where he seems a tough single. Maybe I'm misleading myself, but he seems the logical in a sequence to me, largely because I don't see him as a strong single on many other tickets.
The two lead in races, races four and five, also the two where I found a pair of 'wake-up' plays largely because the fields appeared ripe for a horse to capitalize on an intangible hard to spot in the form - I finally decided just to wheel for the $64. I found a horse or two or three that I could toss, but not confidently given the context of the race, and ultimately those horses offered strong value.
In the end, I envisioned a scenario where Shotski could loom the best bet of the day, but go postward at even money or thereabouts. I think if this pick three can avoid at least one of the most obvious runners in leg one or two, $128 seems a bottom-end return on a pick three, which represents even money.
On the other end of the spectrum, it seems one of the more likely sequences to produce a pair of mid-priced runners, or at least one big number as a lead in, in which case it would seem 3-1 or 4-1 is a hopeful, but realistic return for an uninspired pick three play on an uninspiring card.
R4: *-*-9 ($64)