Track Variance

[Diamond K]

I have had problems handicapping Mountaineer and have changed my tactics to the old fashioned use of DRF speed ratings and adjusting them with the track variance. The track has seemingly come alive with winners and contenders.

My question: How do you employ the use of Track Variance in your handicapping?

Thanks
Diamond K

[kenwoodall]

I have a DRF paper with a Mntr race on a "fast" track with a 43 variant!!
I only use variant to try to guess daily speed of track. All speed and vaiant figures are inaccurate because there is no 1 standard reference. Averages are wild guesses. I use speed figures only to indicate an acceptable race to use as a reprersentative if the horse finished well.
I use 4f dirt average daily work to determine true current track speed.

[andicap]

Ken,
My question about your methods has nothing to do with how they harrow the track, etc. I'll let Karl fight that issue since I'm admittedly ignorant about things maintainence (including my house).

My problem is this -- I've seen plenty of days when the track is very "fast" as in final times, but that doesn't mean speed holds up. In fact the track often plays fair when this happens.
So how do you translate your "fast" workouts during the a.m. to a track bias in the afternoon or any kind of handicapping??

[kenwoodall]

How can the track play fair and speed not hold up??
I play % probabilities. I say Hard=my fast is 4f dirt 49.0 or less Just like sloppy. Speed rules unless an obvious dead rail. Period. 50.0 or more is deep=slow Just like turf. In between is normal.
You need to go to www.equibase.com workouts for the major tracks weekdays. If 10+ 4f dirt works, use an average, middle or as I do, median workout time to the .20 second.
Go to the Equibase results charts at the end of trhe day and observe odds and path of the winning horses on dirt.
I started the Bias thread to improve but it works.
Just like most good racing info it will take 20 years to catch on like Beyers did.
If you bet speed when you know thew track has been sealed you are considerihng intentional human manipulation when you bet. You have to know the real human games from the urban legends!!
The best bet in gambling is betting with the fix and against the untrue rumors!

[kenwoodall]

In spite of unfounded rumors, trainers use workouts to judge condition. Ainslie said workouts reflect variations in track speed. That is why Jerry Hollendorfer told me over the phone that workout time is meaningless as long as the horse is in condition. The same horse on the same track can have a 48.6 or a 50.6 work 4f and is just as good depending on the depth of the track. Everybody says TR.T works are better than main track with the same time because the horses work harder.
Look at any race fractions and most will show horses can run 4f prior to slowing noticably. Same during works, only works are slower than races.
I rarely bet speed and I maintain positive ROI. I make sure the training, current race, and track speed match the horse's ability, training, and condition. That is why my horses rarely finish up the track, or break down.

[kenwoodall]

trainers use works and stopwatches in workouts to judge fitness because they know how fast the (workout) track is. The other main way trainers determine fitness (and competitive level) is to run a horse behind the crowd and try to run them the same distance behind the entire race (evenly). Look at pp's and you will often see the trainer adjusting a horse's distance and/or purse level the next race after running evenly ("stiffing").

[hurrikane]

Ken,

I am of the belief that there is not much of value in the time of any work.
Most are not accurate, they are not official, most horses are not running all out or even close, only a handfull of trainers actually know what they are doing and the top trainers do most of their trainers off track.

So I disagree.

So what happened with your 'public handicapper' experience?
Get the check yet?

[Show Me the Wire]

Originally posted by kenwoodall
trainers use works and stopwatches in workouts to judge fitness because they know how fast the (workout) track is. The other main way trainers determine fitness (and competitive level) is to run a horse behind the crowd and try to run them the same distance behind the entire race (evenly). Look at pp's and you will often see the trainer adjusting a horse's distance and/or purse level the next race after running evenly ("stiffing").

Not!

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

Perception is reality

[Diamond K]

So far my Track Variance has no apparent interest. Am I to assume it is of little value or is not used in anyones handicapping?

I realize the pitfalls of the old DRF speed rating and their 1/5 second tic per length, etc. I realize the Track Variance is subjective. However using the speed rating and adjusting with the variance has once again, like the Lone Ranger, returned to the days of yesteryear when I made thousands through the windows. I am again betting large sums and winning.

I use it at Mountaineer only because this track is a nightmare to handicap and I do way better than average. Laughably so.

This is back to simplicity.

[GameTheory]

Are you saying you are winning at MNR just looking at the DRF SR + Variant?

[hurrikane]

SMTW...

I need to start saying so much with so few letters! :cool:

[cj]

Originally posted by Diamond K

I realize the pitfalls of the old DRF speed rating and their 1/5 second tic per length, etc. I realize the Track Variance is subjective...

Actually, the DRF variant isn't subjective at all, it is completely mechanically made.

CJ

[hurrikane]

would add that the 1.5 sec is not the biggest problem with the DRF TV.

[Diamond K]

Game Theory,

Kind of embarrased to say I am winning all over just using the DRF speed rating and Track Variance. Will look at Beyer to see where the crowd will go and 'why' that paceline differs so much from the DRF/Variance figure I make. It's too simple and strategy I used years ago. I do take some class into consideration.

I find this superb for picking the contenders, if not the winner, on close figures.

I am looking for someone else who does this to comment or feedback of someone who will try this and see what they think. Even backfit a few races.

Diamond K

[gino]

glendale AZ and glendale CA must have a leetle secret sump'n in the agua, u know what i mean?

[Diamond K]

Game Theory,

Just to keep the figures in line with the current DRF figure, I use 15 as the neutral point on DRF TV. Anything over I add to SR and under I subtract. This makes skimming the figures simple and fast. Going back some pacelines will show improvement, etc.

Diamond K

[hurrikane]

diamond,
I've heard of a few people..even up here using it...not many are so if you can make it work..go for it.

[Diamond K]

Gino,

I believe you are correct. It must have been the water that prompted me to revert to an old system used by the old Speed Boys of New York.

Then maybe it was thinking back on when my horse Guadalcanal finished third in the Belmont, what with the Belmont coming up. Maybe it was when I made the largest claim ever made at Arlington in 1964 when someone dropped what turned out to the a great stakes horse in a claiming race. We didn't have the DRF TV available then but used the DRF speed rating and adjustments to pick out this horse to claim.

Actually, it was my wife who said for me to stop buying games (handicap programs) and go back to what I did wel when I bought a form, went to the track and only then started handicapping as the races were startingl. I was pretty good with figures back then and Ken Uston in his book Million Dollar Blackjack and also Gambling Times articles referred to me as one of the top 5 blackjack players in the world. I'm 70 now and have made millions racing and betting horses, but have slowed down considerably.

I miss alot and you and the other people on this board have rekindled memories.

Still, this goofy system works for me. Maybe it's the patterns. I have no idea.

Diamond K

[Show Me the Wire]

Diamond K:

Are you asking if you can use DRF SR + TV to validate Beyer ratings? If that is what you are asking, I believe the answer is yes; I do it all the time.

Shhhhhhhhhh!!!

Regards,
Show Me the Wire

[Tom]

I think the DRF SR+SR is very useful. I have always used it to some degree at FL, Pen, Mnr, Del, FE, WO, Tam, CRC, SA, Hol, Aqi, and Pha. I think working in fifths is as accurate as you need to be.
I would love to meet you in the Mnr warroom some night and talk races and DRF figs. I have cashed a few tics at Mnr using SR+TV
over the years...Mnr is a top notch longshot track. Would be fun to compare notes.

[Diamond K]

Tom:

Will truly look forward to it. I have read your posts for a long time and will enjoy sharing analysis. Maybe one night next week or just let me know.

Diamond K

[lousycapper]

Originally posted by Tom
I think the DRF SR+SR is very useful.

=============================

The Equibase SR+TV seem to be best to locate horses that are speed contenders, especially if you use the last 3 races.

-L.C.

[Diamond K]

Lousycapper:

Thanks for the suggestion. I will use them along with the DRF on a side by side comparison and if there is a marked difference I will post it soon after this weekend. I like to use at least 2 pacelines for each horse.

I actually never considered a comparison of the two prior to this. The DRF is an old habit.

Thanks

Diamond K

[lousycapper]

Originally posted by Diamond K
Lousycapper:

Thanks for the suggestion. I will use them along with the DRF on a side by side comparison and if there is a marked difference I will post it soon after this weekend. I like to use at least 2 pacelines for each horse.

I actually never considered a comparison of the two prior to this. The DRF is an old habit.

Thanks

Diamond K

=============================

They should be the same since I believe Equibase supplies the figures to DRF, ITS and other sellers of racing information.

-L.C.

[Diamond K]

Lousycapper:

Equibase doesn't incorporate the TV as a separate figure in the past performances. They do offer the Daily Racing Form so I assume the figures are one and the same.

Again
Thanks

Diamond K

[Dave Schwartz]

Diamond,

>>Equibase doesn't incorporate the TV as a separate figure in the past performances. They do offer the Daily Racing Form so I assume the figures are one and the same.<<

It is in the HDW download so Eqb must have it.

Which sources do not have it?

Dave

[GameTheory]

It is a trivial calculation. I don't see why Equibase would have to provide it, although maybe they do.

[Diamond K]

Dave:

I am referring to the end user offerings at the Equibase site and specifically to their "Official Equibase Race Programs" which is their version of past performance.

They also have some offerings which incorporate Trackmaster figures, etc. They offer the DRF on their site as well.

Diamond K

[Dave Schwartz]

Diamond,

Got it. Thanks for the clarification.

Dave