Bobzilla
10-30-2009, 08:35 AM
I thought some might be interested in this DRF article. Christine writes about the success of those who didn't prep on dirt for last year's BC. He even displays a neat little map on the bottom of the article.
Last year's results may not provide enough data to definitively draw any solid conclusions but some may think it offers at least a hint. And yet, lately I've been thinking of the potential value that could possibly exist in backing a horse who last ran on dirt if he/she were to compete in a race where there were really no turf/synthetic monsters. Could there be a situation where the benefit of running on the Pro-Ride for a turf runner might not be enough to overcome a decent effort from a superior dirt horse whose somewhat dulled Pro-Ride performance may still be good enough in that particular spot? If so I would think there could be exceptional value due to the perception. I'll be treading lightly on this angle as I do believe a horse who has never run on a synthetic will be at a disadvantage. But I will be looking nevertheless. There will also be some horses, such as Awesome Gem and Music Note, who have synthetic experience but had run their last race on dirt. In a case like that I don't think the fact that their last race was on dirt would even matter. Having the synthetic experience is what's important.
I suspect that the turf horse advantage on the Pro-Ride is an especially important variable when the top competitors are at a comparable talent level on their respective surfaces, as arguably may have been the case in last year's Classic. I'm not sure it's as important a variable to consider if the dirt performer has performance figures far greater than the turf performers, and I mean FAR greater. I think also that the rider is an important variable in these races as I'll most certainly prefer those with ample synthetic experience or a European turf background. Albarado's ride last year did not help his mount's chances at all and might have been the difference for at least third place. Anyone else open minded about playing a horse in this year's BC who last ran on dirt? I'll be treading lightly but I will be looking, there could be value.
Here's the Christine article:
http://www.drf.com/news/article/108495.html
Last year's results may not provide enough data to definitively draw any solid conclusions but some may think it offers at least a hint. And yet, lately I've been thinking of the potential value that could possibly exist in backing a horse who last ran on dirt if he/she were to compete in a race where there were really no turf/synthetic monsters. Could there be a situation where the benefit of running on the Pro-Ride for a turf runner might not be enough to overcome a decent effort from a superior dirt horse whose somewhat dulled Pro-Ride performance may still be good enough in that particular spot? If so I would think there could be exceptional value due to the perception. I'll be treading lightly on this angle as I do believe a horse who has never run on a synthetic will be at a disadvantage. But I will be looking nevertheless. There will also be some horses, such as Awesome Gem and Music Note, who have synthetic experience but had run their last race on dirt. In a case like that I don't think the fact that their last race was on dirt would even matter. Having the synthetic experience is what's important.
I suspect that the turf horse advantage on the Pro-Ride is an especially important variable when the top competitors are at a comparable talent level on their respective surfaces, as arguably may have been the case in last year's Classic. I'm not sure it's as important a variable to consider if the dirt performer has performance figures far greater than the turf performers, and I mean FAR greater. I think also that the rider is an important variable in these races as I'll most certainly prefer those with ample synthetic experience or a European turf background. Albarado's ride last year did not help his mount's chances at all and might have been the difference for at least third place. Anyone else open minded about playing a horse in this year's BC who last ran on dirt? I'll be treading lightly but I will be looking, there could be value.
Here's the Christine article:
http://www.drf.com/news/article/108495.html