Changing My Approach.Any Advice Or Insights??

[CincyHorseplayer]

After coming off a 10 day stretch where I isolated a lot of winners and failed to make money,I'm changing my approach for the rest of this year and in 2010 or revamping some things from the past that worked for me.

In this latest run my key horses were 52-27-7-6 and I came out with a 37% loss.I bet to win,exactas,and rolling doubles.Of the 27 winners only 7 paid 5/2 or better.The exactas and doubles were underlayed as well.I can only come to a few conclusions;

-I'm being way too intensive on a single circuit and am landlocked by the amount of work it takes without producing any better opportunities.

-I'm betting too many races because of the time put in.

-I've gotten away from the passing attack and have put too much emphasis on squeezing out money from low priced overlays.

-I've gotten away from simple joys of handicapping that have led me to success in the past and have given way to a burdensome amount of preparation that has caused me to miss many overlays elsewhere.

My strengths have always been being a well rounded handicapper,understanding biases/profiles here and now,and having a betting approach that has proven itself with a solid ROI.

In the past in preparation for a days races all I needed to know were the previous day or two race profiles and sit down and do basic form,class,probable pace,and basic figure handicapping.I have always been able to predict how races would be run.

As valuable as extensive track profiles, a shorthand type race summary,and bias/trip notes were at first.The work involved has made me none the richer.

From 2001 to 2006 I enjoyed my best success.I hand picked races at 2-3 tracks,isolating distance and class favorites,concentrated on form,class,speed/pace handicapping,made odds lines and spent race days thinking strictly about betting decisions.

The last 3 years I've done a lot of experimenting,mainly on where and what to bet,getting my computer skills more fine tuned,but basically trying to do too much.Felt guilty for doing less.But all I've really done is get away from the approach that helped me beat the game.Less is more.I cannot tell you how many times this summer I'd handicap a card for 4 hours,get trounced,then turn to Belmont or Penn National or Hawthorne and either pass a ton of races or come up with overlays on multiple fronts in a matter of minutes.

So just to summarize;my new/old approach

-track and race variety

-comprehensive but not overintensive handicapping

-value=no underlays,a passing attack,oddslines and payoff breaklines

-emphasize betting approach and decision making=play to strengths

Part of me feels like I might miss a valuable insight.But another part makes me think that variety will yield more opportunities.

Just wanted to ask for any critiques or insights or ideas anybody would have to add???

[point given]

Freshen up for 30-60 days without wagering. Then go back to what was successful for you before you started making changes and experimenting. It sounds as if you got too caught up in process and forgot what worked for you.:)

[LottaKash]

CINCY, it is quite obvious that you are not suffering from a lack of winners....I suspect that the "things" that you use to find those winners, both past and present, no longer have any wager value attached to them....It could be that some of the crowd is catching up to your "reading between the lines" handicapping and angles, or the whales have caught on to those very same things that made you a winner, and are crushing your profits, as a result...

I suggest a freshener and a re-evaluation of your current "way of going"...Perhaps you need to find something new to cling to...This game is always changing, but it always seems to come back to where it once was, but one must know, where one is, in the 360o of it....That is the fun of it (this game)...Meaning, some of the things that I had success with years ago, seemed to have stopped working or had lost it wager value along the way, but, are now beginning to see the same success' as in older days....I thought they were temporary illusions, but some of the old stuff is working again, go figure....

Find something new (or revisit something old and time tested), I'd say....

Cincy best of luck in your new situation....

[Greyfox]

If what you are doing isn't working, do something different.
I'll second the idea of taking a break.
Then I think you've answered your own question. The best predictor of future performance is past performance. Get back to what was winning for you before.

[fmolf]

After coming off a 10 day stretch where I isolated a lot of winners and failed to make money,I'm changing my approach for the rest of this year and in 2010 or revamping some things from the past that worked for me.

In this latest run my key horses were 52-27-7-6 and I came out with a 37% loss.I bet to win,exactas,and rolling doubles.Of the 27 winners only 7 paid 5/2 or better.The exactas and doubles were underlayed as well.I can only come to a few conclusions;

-I'm being way too intensive on a single circuit and am landlocked by the amount of work it takes without producing any better opportunities.

-I'm betting too many races because of the time put in.

-I've gotten away from the passing attack and have put too much emphasis on squeezing out money from low priced overlays.

-I've gotten away from simple joys of handicapping that have led me to success in the past and have given way to a burdensome amount of preparation that has caused me to miss many overlays elsewhere.

My strengths have always been being a well rounded handicapper,understanding biases/profiles here and now,and having a betting approach that has proven itself with a solid ROI.

In the past in preparation for a days races all I needed to know were the previous day or two race profiles and sit down and do basic form,class,probable pace,and basic figure handicapping.I have always been able to predict how races would be run.

As valuable as extensive track profiles, a shorthand type race summary,and bias/trip notes were at first.The work involved has made me none the richer.

From 2001 to 2006 I enjoyed my best success.I hand picked races at 2-3 tracks,isolating distance and class favorites,concentrated on form,class,speed/pace handicapping,made odds lines and spent race days thinking strictly about betting decisions.

The last 3 years I've done a lot of experimenting,mainly on where and what to bet,getting my computer skills more fine tuned,but basically trying to do too much.Felt guilty for doing less.But all I've really done is get away from the approach that helped me beat the game.Less is more.I cannot tell you how many times this summer I'd handicap a card for 4 hours,get trounced,then turn to Belmont or Penn National or Hawthorne and either pass a ton of races or come up with overlays on multiple fronts in a matter of minutes.

So just to summarize;my new/old approach

-track and race variety

-comprehensive but not overintensive handicapping

-value=no underlays,a passing attack,oddslines and payoff breaklines

-emphasize betting approach and decision making=play to strengths

Part of me feels like I might miss a valuable insight.But another part makes me think that variety will yield more opportunities.

Just wanted to ask for any critiques or insights or ideas anybody would have to add???
hello....I know exactly how you feel being a win and exacta player only myself.I am 52 yrs old and whenever i go into a slump i can attribute it to one of two things.The first is overanalyzing,the second is overbetting.What i mean by overanalyzing is that I try to cut my handicapping to fine instead of sticking to the basics which generally have been working since the beginning of racing.Secondly when wagering i wager on too many races over estimating my handicapping acumen and what constitutes an overlay.If i am only in a mild slump i will stop playing my two tracks i am currently following at the moment and go play a strange track.I play the nyra track and monmouth,now meadowlands,in the winter its gulfstream.So for a change of pace i may play Hawthorne...or lonestar,or turf paradise..or emarald downs or laurel.Tracks i normally would never bet.I am so unfamiliar with the horses trainers and the nuances of the layout that i am forced to return to basic nuts and bolts handicapping,no seeing whats not there or imagining trainer intent etc..etc.... good luck i know your touch will return!

[Robert Fischer]

In this latest run my key horses were 52-27-7-6 and I came out with a 37% loss.I bet to win,exactas,and rolling doubles.Of the 27 winners only 7 paid 5/2 or better.

What made you like those high 7? And Why didn't they get bet down below 5/2? Can you look back and remember the details?

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Try to find losing favorites instead of winning favorites.

[Easy Goer]

I've been playing for over 25 years & I've definitely had times when I thought about quitting due to bad losing streaks that lasted for 2-3 months. But always when I returned to just Win & Place betting, then I would always bounce back & show a profit.

So thats my advice to anyone who feels that they are in a negative losing betting spiral. Step back & return to old fashioned Win & Place betting. Most players dont realize that often you can bet up to 3 horses in Win & Place & still show a profit, especially when 2 out of your 3 selections run 1st & 2nd & the prices are at least $2-1 or higher. Yeah I know the returns are low sometimes but over a period of time the positive return starts to look real good as you minimize your losses.

[WinterTriangle]

After coming off a 10 day stretch where I isolated a lot of winners and failed to make money

Picking winners and not making money......

Seems to denote an astute handicapper but a bad bettor?

You have an edge, but you forget value.....need to pass on races that do not present value, and/or change your wagering strategies when you do see value.

This is nothing new, but I'm the type who has to write out a plan for myself. Like a flowchart: "If" this, then "do A". If "that", then do "B".........and then stick to it. Vigorously.

I've reviewed my failures this year, because I did better last year:

A) Over-analyzing, which causes me to come up with reasons for a win or ITM when there really isn't enough there;

B) Not resisting, when I feel very confident about only one contender, an exotic, which I arrived at using A) :)

So, my flowchart/rules would include "feel confident about 1 contender, then play for win, but only if the odds are ________."


And stick to it mercilessly. Like the sign over my desk: DO NOT play Delta.
Before I put the sign up, I sneaked a few plays here and there, just to see .....nope, same as last year, I'm no good there. So, I need a sign. :lol:

[raybo]

Rod,

As you know, after many communications between us, I've seen my share of "less than optimal" runs. I agree with taking a breather. Forget about horse racing for a while. Then when you feel refreshed, do some investigating, in depth. Find out what you were doing in the past that was successful and what you changed that made you not successful.

Mental attitude and acuity are prime requirements for making profit!

I suspect that you'll find that the problem is not your handicapping but your failure to verify things before wagering. If this means you need more time before post time then find a way to trim down your pre-wager handicapping time, usually this means, handicap fewer races, and be more selective in the types of races you choose to play.

Anytime one spends more than one earns then obviously the spending needs to be decreased. Don't spread your investments too thin by betting too much on individual tickets, or by buying too many different types of tickets in the same race. Value is the key and by value I don't mean just betting overlays. The "passing attack" (I am assuming you mean going for the touchdown or big scores) you mention is also "value" if your hit rate and ROI, on them, produce good profits.

I have found "true value" in superfectas, solely. You may not feel comfortable with supers but perhaps in horizontals, especially in view of your great win hits rates. Maybe win parlays of some sort would work, also.

Concentrate on your wagering habits primarily, number of tickets and ticket structure. Your handicapping, obviously, is not the culprit, but, the way you invest your money probably is.

[gm10]

After coming off a 10 day stretch where I isolated a lot of winners and failed to make money,I'm changing my approach for the rest of this year and in 2010 or revamping some things from the past that worked for me.

In this latest run my key horses were 52-27-7-6 and I came out with a 37% loss.I bet to win,exactas,and rolling doubles.Of the 27 winners only 7 paid 5/2 or better.The exactas and doubles were underlayed as well.I can only come to a few conclusions;

-I'm being way too intensive on a single circuit and am landlocked by the amount of work it takes without producing any better opportunities.

-I'm betting too many races because of the time put in.

-I've gotten away from the passing attack and have put too much emphasis on squeezing out money from low priced overlays.

-I've gotten away from simple joys of handicapping that have led me to success in the past and have given way to a burdensome amount of preparation that has caused me to miss many overlays elsewhere.

My strengths have always been being a well rounded handicapper,understanding biases/profiles here and now,and having a betting approach that has proven itself with a solid ROI.

In the past in preparation for a days races all I needed to know were the previous day or two race profiles and sit down and do basic form,class,probable pace,and basic figure handicapping.I have always been able to predict how races would be run.

As valuable as extensive track profiles, a shorthand type race summary,and bias/trip notes were at first.The work involved has made me none the richer.

From 2001 to 2006 I enjoyed my best success.I hand picked races at 2-3 tracks,isolating distance and class favorites,concentrated on form,class,speed/pace handicapping,made odds lines and spent race days thinking strictly about betting decisions.

The last 3 years I've done a lot of experimenting,mainly on where and what to bet,getting my computer skills more fine tuned,but basically trying to do too much.Felt guilty for doing less.But all I've really done is get away from the approach that helped me beat the game.Less is more.I cannot tell you how many times this summer I'd handicap a card for 4 hours,get trounced,then turn to Belmont or Penn National or Hawthorne and either pass a ton of races or come up with overlays on multiple fronts in a matter of minutes.

So just to summarize;my new/old approach

-track and race variety

-comprehensive but not overintensive handicapping

-value=no underlays,a passing attack,oddslines and payoff breaklines

-emphasize betting approach and decision making=play to strengths

Part of me feels like I might miss a valuable insight.But another part makes me think that variety will yield more opportunities.

Just wanted to ask for any critiques or insights or ideas anybody would have to add???

Maybe you could use the more intensive handicapping approach for exotic betting only? My experience tells me that, as you say, you can spot a nice overlay winner in a few mins, but to be successful at exotic betting, you need to spend much more time on the fine details of a race, the details of the whole race card even.

Put in another way, in the win pool, you are mainly up against people who can do the first 80% of your analysis in 20% of the time. In the exotics, those last minute handicappers would not nearly be as successful, because in those bets, it's the preparation that matters.

[markgoldie]

I won't rehash my methodology and try to convert you because each method of play requires a different temperament and while you can change approaches, temperaments don't change much if at all.

Lots of posters have recommended a break. Me too, but a different sort of break. Stop playing but continue research. From your post, you indicate that you must have a selection method that picks a lot of extreme chalk. This can easily cause what might be termed a "selectivity spiral," by which is meant that you get more and more selective because your average payoffs are so low. The problem is that greater selectivity usually leads to even lower average prices, so it is self-defeating. Try reversing the selectivity on paper to see if you have been filtering out lower strike-rate but better profit horses.

I also second the idea of trying a totally new track, but play it on paper. Sometimes this can give you a fresh look at different angles that you may have been neglecting.

Lastly, realize that the game is tougher at this moment than I have ever seen it and I've been at this for roughly 50 years. There are a number of reasons for this but they have been discussed in other threads, so I won't rehash. However, the slight glimmer in this overall toughness is that most of the very sharp money handicaps races the same way. This leaves some room for out-of-box thinking ala Mark Cramer. At any rate, I think I can state categorically, without fear of contradiction, that a steady diet of favorites either to win or in exactas is more difficult now than ever- not impossible but close enough. If you can get on board with this concept, you might be able to change your approach.

[jballscalls]

Cincyplayer--- i thought you were the guy who was quitting the game because the otb closed because the heater was broken in 10 degree weather???

anyways, agree with everyone about a break. it's a good thing, plus when you come back refreshed your more likely to work harder and smarter.

one thing i did on a break for a while, was make fake bets and track how i was doing, what i was having success with and what i wasnt, putting it all down on paper.

[46zilzal]

I often 'cap cards that I have no intention of betting on, just to keep my mind from getting into a rut. My style of capping/wagering works well on some courses, not so well on others. I try new ones all the time and stay away from the ones that don't work.

Keeps one humble in the idea that not all tracks are the same and keeps the mind sharper.

[fmolf]

Cincy....I thought you played exactas with a solid favorite on top like i do?Are you betting too many combos to show a profit?...Are you missing the underneath horse too often?Get back to old fashioned paper and pencil handicapping.All I use the computer for is this forum, a few contests and downloading old fashioned paper pp's to mark up and pore over till the wee hours of the morn.

[cmoore]

Maybe you need to re-evaluate what VALUE means to you.

[WinterTriangle]

Concentrate on your wagering habits primarily, number of tickets and ticket structure. Your handicapping, obviously, is not the culprit, but, the way you invest your money probably is.

This describes perfectly stuff I need to work on.

I can't take a break though, until BC is over. :)

[macdiarmida]

Zactly per Winter Triangle and rayboabove.

One thing to track is your highest and lowest percentage plays (race type, surface, angles, etc.). Can you select a best bet of the day (including possible ROI)? Sometimes, there are none, fewer times two-three. If found, can you bet multiples over your normal bet in this situation? Maybe you need to reduce your normal bet to do this. Can you wait for this situation and not tap out beforehand and if you lose it, will you be able to sit or play normally and not chase?

If your main track has gone all chalky and it doesn't suit your betting regimen, REALLY pick your spots there (if any) and go on to the secondary tracks. So be much more selective at this time (including betting close to zilch) or sit chilly. It's not at all good if you get into the Weekend Warrior mentality and feel obligated to play just because you've done the prep work. And I know sitting is hard to do since most of your friends are going to be sitting with their noses in the DRF working on the next simo race. You can usually watch sports or mingle and exchange info and insights.

The game is getting harder year by year. Buying and understanding sheets/figs would save you a lot of time, but you do have to play (or win) enough to justify the cost.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Rod,

As you know, after many communications between us, I've seen my share of "less than optimal" runs. I agree with taking a breather. Forget about horse racing for a while. Then when you feel refreshed, do some investigating, in depth. Find out what you were doing in the past that was successful and what you changed that made you not successful.

Mental attitude and acuity are prime requirements for making profit!

I suspect that you'll find that the problem is not your handicapping but your failure to verify things before wagering. If this means you need more time before post time then find a way to trim down your pre-wager handicapping time, usually this means, handicap fewer races, and be more selective in the types of races you choose to play.

Anytime one spends more than one earns then obviously the spending needs to be decreased. Don't spread your investments too thin by betting too much on individual tickets, or by buying too many different types of tickets in the same race. Value is the key and by value I don't mean just betting overlays. The "passing attack" (I am assuming you mean going for the touchdown or big scores) you mention is also "value" if your hit rate and ROI, on them, produce good profits.

I have found "true value" in superfectas, solely. You may not feel comfortable with supers but perhaps in horizontals, especially in view of your great win hits rates. Maybe win parlays of some sort would work, also.

Concentrate on your wagering habits primarily, number of tickets and ticket structure. Your handicapping, obviously, is not the culprit, but, the way you invest your money probably is.


Hey Ray,been a while.How are you?

This run I was in,I really don't think there was a lot I could do about it.The numbers were there but my betting decisions were off and single circuit oversaturation was the problem and it has happened more than once this season.Tampa Bay Downs was giving me fits at times this spring with some oddball results.Thistledown was the latest thorn in the side from the sheer number of Presque Isle Downs horses that dominated,yet deciphering who will be hit or miss with the surface change was a head scratcher.And Jamie Ness,Mr. Miracle,had so many form turn arounds and Beyer jumps,on even older horses,he either blew you away with chalk or lit up the tote with incomprehensible winners.At a 44% win clip,something is not right IMO.

I think variety,maybe 2-3 tracks,will prevent a lot of headaches where either the card is bad,the weather is bad,the above phenomenon occurs,or even when the equine herpes hits like it did last year at the Fair Grounds.Plus I can isolate high win conditions.I'm good at all sprints,turf and dirt route stakes,the lifetime series of races,higher level open claimers,and most allowance races,where I detest most time restricted races,many maiden races,turf sprints,and bottom claimers.

What I meant by the passing attack is to simply play less races.Anything at all below 6/5 unless I can isolate 1 single contender and get an overlaid exacta.Play less races bet more on optimal situations.

And oddslines.I used to make oddslines but felt I had a built in sense of value,but a line just makes the decision factor easy as pie.The optimal bets stare you in the face and tell you when to be aggressive.I had gotten away from it.

And I don't know if it is a circuit phenomenon or it's country wide but I always have found a steady diet of exactas in the $25-45 range that I would totally hammer or I could find at least 8 winners a week that paid 7/2 or better or doubles that paid $60 and up I'd drill.They have disappeared.Plus normally within a 25 race set or a maximum of a 50 race set I would always come across a bomb.A $100+ exacta that would be a top 2 combination or a 10-1+ winner.That hasn't been there for me this fall.

I think it has been the lack of focus and the patience of waiting on value.Emphasising value or passing races.In the past there have been weeks I've bet 15 races and hit 6 or 8 of them at nice prices.It's ironic because it comes at a time when I'm really aggressive and fearless and could do some damage.But the conditions aren't there.I have had some short term runs that were white hot but the big ones have eluded me.As a $20 bettor in the fall of 2006 I netted over $3700.00 in 10 race days.Boy do I miss those kind of runs!!!!


"Mental attitude and acuity are prime requirements for making profit!"

So true.

I really don't think I need a break,or much more of one.I haven't played in 2 weeks and plan on getting back in it next week when the Fair Grounds opens and BC runs.

Honestly I feel better already simply by lightening the load.I feel excited and resfreshed.Like I said I love to handicap and I'm going back to the basics without toally eliminating realities like bias/profile,and trips.Just trading off depth for variety and value.I have done my best work in the past simply reading through past performance histories,interpreting running lines vs class and pace scenarios,profiling horses to conditions,and turning that into an oddsline.It really is an art.And I need to get back to that.

I'll keep in touch.

And thanks for the advice.

Rod

[CincyHorseplayer]

hello....I know exactly how you feel being a win and exacta player only myself.I am 52 yrs old and whenever i go into a slump i can attribute it to one of two things.The first is overanalyzing,the second is overbetting.What i mean by overanalyzing is that I try to cut my handicapping to fine instead of sticking to the basics which generally have been working since the beginning of racing.Secondly when wagering i wager on too many races over estimating my handicapping acumen and what constitutes an overlay.If i am only in a mild slump i will stop playing my two tracks i am currently following at the moment and go play a strange track.I play the nyra track and monmouth,now meadowlands,in the winter its gulfstream.So for a change of pace i may play Hawthorne...or lonestar,or turf paradise..or emarald downs or laurel.Tracks i normally would never bet.I am so unfamiliar with the horses trainers and the nuances of the layout that i am forced to return to basic nuts and bolts handicapping,no seeing whats not there or imagining trainer intent etc..etc.... good luck i know your touch will return!

I hear you loud and clear.And it might not be overanalysing but simply being too mechanistic and as Point Given said being "Caught up in the process".

This might sound esoteric or occult-like or plain BS to some,but I think two of my greatest strengths are visualization and reading a horse's personality.I honestly feel when I am at my best,when I'm looking at running lines and the age and record and class and condition of a horse's race history that I can almost get a sense of the horse's personality.And when I am looking at running styles,fractions,and probable pace I can visualize a past performance,or visualize how this race will be run.

When I lose those abilities I'm just going through the motions.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Maybe you could use the more intensive handicapping approach for exotic betting only? My experience tells me that, as you say, you can spot a nice overlay winner in a few mins, but to be successful at exotic betting, you need to spend much more time on the fine details of a race, the details of the whole race card even.

Put in another way, in the win pool, you are mainly up against people who can do the first 80% of your analysis in 20% of the time. In the exotics, those last minute handicappers would not nearly be as successful, because in those bets, it's the preparation that matters.


Very good point about being intensive in analyzing exotic bets.I'll have to get back to in a few weeks on it but I think simply isolating solid horses and then landing on who will benefit from today's probable pace scenario and/or bias,is all one needs.I play exactas and rolling doubles a lot.The best scenario are races when you narrow a high probability outcome to 2-3 horses and the payoffs are overlaid.

I really think I could use the approach to only bet races when I narrow the contention to 3 horses and pass if the payoffs are underlaid.

In fact that is in my outline along with using a double (or even triple) win betting approach as outlined by Cramer(Value Handicapping-overlays) and Sartin.Two other very successful ideas lost over time.

[JohnGalt1]

The best advice you've received here is bet only value--only betting at YOUR acceptable odds.

I only bet my horse to win a t 3-1 so I can make a profit at my win pct. Find your own minimum. You will skip more races, and save more money for races with better value later.

I don't play pick 3's if I like the favorite--unless the other legs have long shots. A guideline I use is the three prime bets total 15 in in odds. So if I like a 4-1, a 7-1 and a 5-1 it adds up to 16, a playble ticket. I also include all horses that can win, say 3 with 4 with 3. I may only play one or two pick threes a day. So if you skip chalky pick threes, you'll have more money for the ones that offer value.

I'm trying to become better at playing to win money, and not to just play races.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I won't rehash my methodology and try to convert you because each method of play requires a different temperament and while you can change approaches, temperaments don't change much if at all.

Lots of posters have recommended a break. Me too, but a different sort of break. Stop playing but continue research. From your post, you indicate that you must have a selection method that picks a lot of extreme chalk. This can easily cause what might be termed a "selectivity spiral," by which is meant that you get more and more selective because your average payoffs are so low. The problem is that greater selectivity usually leads to even lower average prices, so it is self-defeating. Try reversing the selectivity on paper to see if you have been filtering out lower strike-rate but better profit horses.

I also second the idea of trying a totally new track, but play it on paper. Sometimes this can give you a fresh look at different angles that you may have been neglecting.

Lastly, realize that the game is tougher at this moment than I have ever seen it and I've been at this for roughly 50 years. There are a number of reasons for this but they have been discussed in other threads, so I won't rehash. However, the slight glimmer in this overall toughness is that most of the very sharp money handicaps races the same way. This leaves some room for out-of-box thinking ala Mark Cramer. At any rate, I think I can state categorically, without fear of contradiction, that a steady diet of favorites either to win or in exactas is more difficult now than ever- not impossible but close enough. If you can get on board with this concept, you might be able to change your approach.


Mark the 2 statements in red above hit me square.I played profitable for more than a few meets at a 28% win clip because of the value I extracted.Being wrong that often never really affected me because I knew the payoffs were worth the wait.I've always had a decent cash rate but the solid hits have dried up.I'm more than willing to make the trade off.

The bottom statement alleviates some of my paranoia.I think the game has been tougher and more more elusive in even the last 3 years.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Maybe you need to re-evaluate what VALUE means to you.

Cmoore,

I just put in another post that in my "Golden Era"(!!) of handicapping I had about a composite hit rate of 28% in both win bets and exacta bets.My average mutuel was 7/2 and my average exacta payoff on the whole bet was 6-1.

Because I'll be betting more marginal,hit big or miss entirely scenarios,I'm willing to cash less and hit bigger.

I think I perhaps became too obsessed with cash %.Even while hitting a miserable 17% in this run,my cash rate was well over 50% or I would have lost more than 37% on my plays.But it yielded paltry returns,and even in situations where I split hairs on contenders in the bottom of exactas,the mutuels would have only been marginally bigger.

[CincyHorseplayer]

This describes perfectly stuff I need to work on.

I can't take a break though, until BC is over. :)

Thanks Winter Triangle.I missed this nugget in Ray's post;

Originally Posted by raybo
Concentrate on your wagering habits primarily, number of tickets and ticket structure. Your handicapping, obviously, is not the culprit, but, the way you invest your money probably is.

I wrote this in a notebook outline,"an emphasis that caters to the strength of a betting approach and evolves a system of alphabetical/numeric rankings of races based on opinion of the race itself and payoffs"

[CincyHorseplayer]

Zactly per Winter Triangle and rayboabove.

One thing to track is your highest and lowest percentage plays (race type, surface, angles, etc.). Can you select a best bet of the day (including possible ROI)? Sometimes, there are none, fewer times two-three. If found, can you bet multiples over your normal bet in this situation? Maybe you need to reduce your normal bet to do this. Can you wait for this situation and not tap out beforehand and if you lose it, will you be able to sit or play normally and not chase?

If your main track has gone all chalky and it doesn't suit your betting regimen, REALLY pick your spots there (if any) and go on to the secondary tracks. So be much more selective at this time (including betting close to zilch) or sit chilly. It's not at all good if you get into the Weekend Warrior mentality and feel obligated to play just because you've done the prep work. And I know sitting is hard to do since most of your friends are going to be sitting with their noses in the DRF working on the next simo race. You can usually watch sports or mingle and exchange info and insights.

The game is getting harder year by year. Buying and understanding sheets/figs would save you a lot of time, but you do have to play (or win) enough to justify the cost.

Mac,

You described this as though you were playing next to me and I've reached many of the same conclusions.

There were times in the last 12 years where I did play fulltime and I adjusted my approach to "Take what they give me" to make a weekly profit.

I realize now that it is a burden,not very fun,and unnecessary.Even though I made it work and quite often at that.If I were to bet fulltime again,the emphasis for me is that my goal is X amount of dollars profit and I have a month to reach it.Pressing and being overly aggressive daily and weekly is unnecessary.Pick your spots and bet bigger when an optimal situation presents itself.

I plan on being more selective and viewing more tracks and races.

[proximity]

Cincyplayer--- i thought you were the guy who was quitting the game because the otb closed because the heater was broken in 10 degree weather???
.

i think that was cincy's cousin from across town...... nmy20s or something??

anyhow, cincy is a good player and 10 days and 57 bets shouldn't have changed that. but sometimes we get an itch and need to scratch it. maybe change a thing or two, but keep dancing with the girl who brought ya.

[CincyHorseplayer]

i think that was cincy's cousin from across town...... nmy20s or something??

anyhow, cincy is a good player and 10 days and 57 bets shouldn't have changed that. but sometimes we get an itch and need to scratch it. maybe change a thing or two, but keep dancing with the girl who brought ya.


I think Nm20's is being corraled into the 3rd floor of Turway with the drunks!!

It's that or you go to blue hair heaven at River Downs' Clubhouse where it's 50/50 on the heat,the bathroom fans don't work,and every player makes their obligatory 2 bowel movements a card:lol:

[nobeyerspls]

Try to find losing favorites instead of winning favorites.

Amen to that. I am an exotics player (mostly horizontal) who never plays a horse straight if the odds are less than 7/2. Success comes from identifying false favorites and live longshots and the leverage in pick3's and win4's can yield returns twenty to sixty times the wager.
Rolling doubles are OK but not with low-odds horses in both halves.

[CincyHorseplayer]

OK.Today was my first full day back at the races.Went back to the basics making oddslines,eliminating all chalk for a while,taking the passing attack,and only betting when value is there on contenders.

I said I was losing the intensive approach and looking at more races,taking selectivity over the intensive,one track approach.The big ones had escaped me and while landing on winners I couldn't make money on them.

Progress was passing races.Lines made decisions easy.Played 5 races in the 18 I looked at.Hit 2.

Yes it's only one day but I had 2 horses place at 30-1 and 43-1,and 64.00 and 381.00 exactas.The first was a deliberate underneath play to the favorite.The 2nd,on a day the track favored closers,was a closer,MD Sp Wt dropper to MC,route to sprint,to 3 live contenders,one of my favorite plays.

It's early and my linemaking needs to lose some rust and my judgement,while better,wasn't quite back in the swing of the new/old approach,but I feel better already.I did some straight nuts and bolts handicapping and looked at a lot more races and enjoyed myself.It didn't seem laborious at all and I didn't squander any concepts completely.

In a few words I feel like I'm back on the right track.

Thanks for the responses.

[raybo]

OK.Today was my first full day back at the races.Went back to the basics making oddslines,eliminating all chalk for a while,taking the passing attack,and only betting when value is there on contenders.

I said I was losing the intensive approach and looking at more races,taking selectivity over the intensive,one track approach.The big ones had escaped me and while landing on winners I couldn't make money on them.

Progress was passing races.Lines made decisions easy.Played 5 races in the 18 I looked at.Hit 2.

Yes it's only one day but I had 2 horses place at 30-1 and 43-1,and 64.00 and 381.00 exactas.The first was a deliberate underneath play to the favorite.The 2nd,on a day the track favored closers,was a closer,MD Sp Wt dropper to MC,route to sprint,to 3 live contenders,one of my favorite plays.

It's early and my linemaking needs to lose some rust and my judgement,while better,wasn't quite back in the swing of the new/old approach,but I feel better already.I did some straight nuts and bolts handicapping and looked at a lot more races and enjoyed myself.It didn't seem laborious at all and I didn't squander any concepts completely.

In a few words I feel like I'm back on the right track.

Thanks for the responses.

Rod,

Sounds like you're back in the groove! Back in 2005, I had a really good run and my approach was along the lines you mention here. I would look at the entries for 2-4 tracks, jot down the races I wanted to handicap, then I would adjust my print macro to just print out those races, only. Then I would look at the top 3 morning line horses in each race to see if they were all solid contenders. If they were I would further trim down the number of races by eliminating those races.

From there I would let my Excel program handicap the remaining races, do my "due diligence" in verifying what the program was telling me, only then would I proceed to my wagering method, looking at real time odds spreads, determining what my minimum super payout would be and if that met my requirements, structure my super and place the bet.

When I got in trouble, which caused my break from the game for a year, I found that I wasn't doing the "due diligence" portion of the approach. Changing back to my old disciplined approach did the trick and I was right back in the groove, producing the same 45%+ profit I had been doing previously.

In short, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it".

[CincyHorseplayer]

Rod,

Sounds like you're back in the groove! Back in 2005, I had a really good run and my approach was along the lines you mention here. I would look at the entries for 2-4 tracks, jot down the races I wanted to handicap, then I would adjust my print macro to just print out those races, only. Then I would look at the top 3 morning line horses in each race to see if they were all solid contenders. If they were I would further trim down the number of races by eliminating those races.

From there I would let my Excel program handicap the remaining races, do my "due diligence" in verifying what the program was telling me, only then would I proceed to my wagering method, looking at real time odds spreads, determining what my minimum super payout would be and if that met my requirements, structure my super and place the bet.

When I got in trouble, which caused my break from the game for a year, I found that I wasn't doing the "due diligence" portion of the approach. Changing back to my old disciplined approach did the trick and I was right back in the groove, producing the same 45%+ profit I had been doing previously.

In short, "If it ain't broke, don't fix it".


I think the results validate what I'm trying to do.Win!!

But seriously other than the occasional 3-1 or 6-1 shot I was missing the $30-$50 exactas that have always been my bread and butter that I would hit hard.And all the bombs were completely dried up and gone.And it has been an oft occurring circumstance this year.In a normal run of play,say 20 race days(a month),I would always stumble on a $100-200 exacta and not just the $1 variety.I would have it multiple times.It's ironic that the first day I change my approach I find live 30-1,40-1 shots in pricy exactas.

Some of that was changing my play schedule last winter,something I wanted to do for a while.Playing new and unfamiliar tracks,but dominantly it was a too intensive approach.I did more preparation to be able to handicap which resulted in little time devoted to decision making,which led to sloppy bets.Basic but comprehensive handicapping and good decision making helped me carve out my betting approach over the years.But I reached a point where everything was backwards.I had to go back to what got me there in the first place.

Feels like a weight is off my shoulders.I'm excited again.I can feel a nice run right around the corner.I think I'm a good handicapper and I enjoy doing it.Simplicity,selectivity,and value are all I need.

I'm glad that even in a horrible streak I only had a 37% loss.I know players that when they are on a bad run lose way more than that.But in a normal,not over the top run of play,I would maintain a 40-65% ROI.My average win mutuel for years has been around 7/2 and I get around a 6-1 return on my exacta bets.I don't have to set the world on fire with hit %,as you can attest with your superfecta approach.8% right?But value is premium.I look at it like a hitter in baseball.Even the best hitters are going to fail 7 out of 10 times.We are all going to lose X amount of bets.When we hit we have to make it count.It's like a SLG % for horseplayers!:cool:

Talk to you soon Ray.

Rod

[TurfRuler]

Get ready for the Aqueduct inner track pick four contest held here at Pace and you will leave the California tracks alone as long as they have that plastic stuff they run on, where winner's glide over the surface or win by a head bob. :p

[CincyHorseplayer]

Get ready for the Aqueduct inner track pick four contest held here at Pace and you will leave the California tracks alone as long as they have that plastic stuff they run on, where winner's glide over the surface or win by a head bob. :p

I hate winter racing up north or anywhere it's cold.The race surfaces can go from fast to wet-fast to frozen to good to muddy and back to frozen in the course of 2 days.No thanks.And not into the synthetics either.I'm following the geese and going south for the winter!!!Fair Grounds,Tampa Bay Downs,Gulfstream,and Oaklawn oh my!!

[TurfRuler]

I hate winter racing up north or anywhere it's cold.The race surfaces can go from fast to wet-fast to frozen to good to muddy and back to frozen in the course of 2 days.No thanks.And not into the synthetics either.I'm following the geese and going south for the winter!!!Fair Grounds,Tampa Bay Downs,Gulfstream,and Oaklawn oh my!!

Did I do that? I meant to include these tracks also. :blush:

[raybo]

I agree that northern tracks in the winter are not my cup of tea. I've been wagering the same 6-8 midwest/southwest tracks for years now and I ain't changin'. I don't play wet or off tracks, at all, period.

Again, if it ain't broke, don't fix it.

[raybo]

I think the results validate what I'm trying to do.Win!!

But seriously other than the occasional 3-1 or 6-1 shot I was missing the $30-$50 exactas that have always been my bread and butter that I would hit hard.And all the bombs were completely dried up and gone.And it has been an oft occurring circumstance this year.In a normal run of play,say 20 race days(a month),I would always stumble on a $100-200 exacta and not just the $1 variety.I would have it multiple times.It's ironic that the first day I change my approach I find live 30-1,40-1 shots in pricy exactas.

Some of that was changing my play schedule last winter,something I wanted to do for a while.Playing new and unfamiliar tracks,but dominantly it was a too intensive approach.I did more preparation to be able to handicap which resulted in little time devoted to decision making,which led to sloppy bets.Basic but comprehensive handicapping and good decision making helped me carve out my betting approach over the years.But I reached a point where everything was backwards.I had to go back to what got me there in the first place.

Feels like a weight is off my shoulders.I'm excited again.I can feel a nice run right around the corner.I think I'm a good handicapper and I enjoy doing it.Simplicity,selectivity,and value are all I need.

I'm glad that even in a horrible streak I only had a 37% loss.I know players that when they are on a bad run lose way more than that.But in a normal,not over the top run of play,I would maintain a 40-65% ROI.My average win mutuel for years has been around 7/2 and I get around a 6-1 return on my exacta bets.I don't have to set the world on fire with hit %,as you can attest with your superfecta approach.8% right?But value is premium.I look at it like a hitter in baseball.Even the best hitters are going to fail 7 out of 10 times.We are all going to lose X amount of bets.When we hit we have to make it count.It's like a SLG % for horseplayers!:cool:

Talk to you soon Ray.

Rod

Rod,

You're correct, 8% hit rate. You're also correct when you say you "don't have to set the world on fire with hit %" to be hugely successful. This is the type thing I've been preaching for several years now about exotics. I have seen so many WPS players struggling to get their hit% up high enough to show a profit. IMO, if you can't hit enough then your obvious solution is to seek better payoffs, either by playing exactas, tris, supers, or picks, or, like you, go after higher paying win horses. It's not rocket science, but, simple math, hit% x average payout.

There are many ways to get there but continuing to play low paying scenarios, won't work, for the vast majority of players.