BEYER ON SPEED

[karlskorner]

www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/sports/columns/beyerandrew

Also his columns for 6/3 & 6/2, interesting reading

[azibuck]

I'm no pedigree expert, but whenever I read pedigree articles by experts in the field, they don't narrowly focus on the sire. They talk about families and females. I think a pedigree expert would roll their eyes at Beyer's column, as it relates to Funny Cide and distance in general. But he is correct about the intent of today's breeders.

[cj]

How much do these so-called "pedigree experts" really know? Horses are much more fragile these days, can't run a distance of ground, so where is the expertise? The only expert I read regularly is Lauren Stich from the Simulcast Weekly articles, and for the most part they are a bunch of useless info.

CJ

[andicap]

Not that I'm a fan of dosage -- its voodoo I think -- but didn't Funny Cide have an excellent dosage figure?
It's my understanding from limited knowledge of breeding that the sire isn't the one thing that counts.

Now my big problem with the whole breeding analysis thing is that "experts" always have an answer after the race why the horse won. "Oh, he had a distance runner in his 3rd cousin on his dame's sire from 1942."

Funny how they rarely tell me that before the race.

[azibuck]

I know what you mean. Some pedigree people go crazy with "2x crosses to Northern Dancer AND 5x7 to Old Paint" or something like that.

But brushing aside FC's dam with her modest racing record, which may not be a true indicator of the genes she's passing on, does a disservice to the pedigree issue.

[Derek2U]

hehe how right YoU arE .... these Breeding Xperts come out aftER
the race & so they are closet redboarders in a way. That, in a way, is all horseRacing: Everything Makes Perfect Sense After
Its Over. Oh Y Oh Y couldnt I see that? hehe .... Did No One
Even Notice Why (WHY) I wrote the paradigm of Repeated Small
Samples? I'm kinda shocked that all the few remarks missed my
main point. Next. hehe .... Derek

[cato]

andicap: FunnyCides dosage was perfect for the Kentucky Derby...I know only becasue I checked AFTER the Derby

Cato

[kenwoodall]

The top 3 KY derby finishers had the top 3 beyers and Beyers did not pick them!!
I buy the annual sire listings and mark best % wins and itm.
Maybe claiming a nice filly and breeding her to a champ would be a good investment!!

[andicap]

I'm not putting down handicapping by breeding -- i've even cashed a few bets on FTS with precocious sires -- but there are so many variables it does seem the stats often get a little silly.

Mike Helm grades the stats -- I think he deliniates between 20% and 15%... in terms of sire winners. Statisitically (I'm no expert), is that enough of a difference to bet on??

[kenwoodall]

My brother handicaps by breeding- his son picks better than him!!

[Valuist]

Ken-

The top 3 Derby finishers did not have the top 3 numbers going in because Ten Most Wanted was one of the top 3 and he was off the board.

[rastajenk]

The top three going into the Triple Crown series were the top three coming out as well. These three are the cream of the crop (at this point) and all the Peace Rules and Atswhats and Dynevers are merely pretenders.

[cj]

I don't think Peace Rules is a pretender, but time will tell. He ran very good in the Derby and actually pretty good in the Preakness when you look at his pace number. Not like the others flew by him for second.

CJ