View Full Version : defrancis dash grade 1 who do you like
bisket
10-23-2009, 10:01 PM
heres the past pefromances from drf.com. its the race of the day tomorrow. so the formulator pps are free.
http://www.drf.com/formulator-web/FreeRace.do?trackId=LRL&country=USA&raceDate=20091024&dayEvening=D&raceNumber=9#past-performance-race/9
question: can the bisket hit a longshot in this race? you betcha. did anyone have ah day in the tobaggan? da bisket did. what's the secret to ah day's winning races? hmmm!! lets see. there is something that has happened in each one of ah day's big wins. trust me its right there in front of you. :cool: ok in every one of ah days wins. the pace setter has run back to back 22 and change opening 1/4's. what does vineyard haven, roaring lion, ravalo, and fleet valid like to run? 22 and change :ThmbUp: . now there's two who may get 21 and change for the 1st 1/4 sacred journey and saratoga russell, but i think they'll run a 22 1st 1/4 in this one. now theres another angle to this race that i like, and mike hammersley is nice enough to point this out. peace chant looked like a world beater on dirt in california. unfortunatly he's only had poly to run on recently. his effort in the forego was good, but will be overlooked. i like him for an exotic because the race is gonna set up for him and ah day. so right now there's two definates for my bets. 10$to win on ah day and peace chant. i'll decide on one or two horses for my tri box tomorrow. 3$ exacta box on ah day and peace chant also.
bisket
10-23-2009, 10:25 PM
heres an article from drf on the defrancis dash, and ah day and peace chant aren't even mentioned. i like it :p
http://www.drf.com/news/article/108306.html
fmolf
10-23-2009, 11:39 PM
heres an article from drf on the defrancis dash, and ah day and peace chant aren't even mentioned. i like it :p
http://www.drf.com/news/article/108306.html
i like ah day as well ....likes the off track ...their should be one tomorrow...rains all day I believe....true quality also possible mudder to look out for.
If Vineyard Haven runs like he did his last race, it is over. If he regresses a little, he will probably still win. If he runs really bad, it is pretty wide open as the others look very evenly matched.
CBedo
10-24-2009, 01:31 AM
I agree with CJ. If Vineyard Haven shows up at all, he wins. If he doesn't, then the question becomes does Vineyard Haven still impact the early pace scenario.
At 8/5 (doubtful), I'd be all over Vineyard Haven, but more than likely I'll be a passive spectator watching. If I had to pick someone besides Vineayard, I'd take Roaring Lion & Ravalo I guess.
menifee
10-24-2009, 01:49 AM
Tough race. You can't bet Vineyard Haven at those odds in this field. I like Peace Chant to get a piece at a price. There is so much speed in the race, that a closer should be able to make some noise at the end.
Bochall
10-24-2009, 02:20 AM
Ravalo is the interesting one for me. He brings his game everywhere (wins at 6 different tracks)...except Laurel! Mud is ok with him as well. I will forgive his Laurel losses as they were a few years ago. Rose should give him a patient ride just off the pace and near the inside (he's a railrider like Borel) and hopefully he can get past Vineyard Haven and hold off the closers. At 8-1 he is my play, although VH may waste them. He's a 3 time Gr 1 winner. My knock against him is that this race is at 6f, not he 7f he likes, and a 6f pace may cook him. He will no doubt be used early from the 1 hole or get buried. Come to think of it, Ravalo should challenge for the lead turning for home alongside the :7: and from there all i fear is Chavez on the :6: Peace Chant. Chop Chop in the slop! How bout a :6: :7: w :3: exacta and win bet on :3: .
WinterTriangle
10-24-2009, 02:53 AM
Bisket, good luck with your pick. I haven't handicapped it thoroughly yet but those Malibu Moon's are doing well, Devil May Care won the Frizzette Stakes recently....
It's anyone's race.
Ravalo has 9 stakes wins at this distance, and like Ah Day, should stalk the pace and come closing. Fleet Valid is coming off 4 straight wins, Roaring Lion is in good form and is 3 for 3, and I'm also looking at Sacred Journey, who has 3 wins at this distance, good post position for winners, and good trainer. True Quality may be good in the slop.
I have to wait and see what kind of condition the track is in, but leaning toward Ravalo, Fleet Valid, Roaring Lion, Sacred Journey, and True Quality right now, with Ravalo in the WIN position.
gotta look up the wet stats.
fmolf
10-24-2009, 09:50 AM
Bisket, good luck with your pick. I haven't handicapped it thoroughly yet but those Malibu Moon's are doing well, Devil May Care won the Frizzette Stakes recently....
It's anyone's race.
Ravalo has 9 stakes wins at this distance, and like Ah Day, should stalk the pace and come closing. Fleet Valid is coming off 4 straight wins, Roaring Lion is in good form and is 3 for 3, and I'm also looking at Sacred Journey, who has 3 wins at this distance, good post position for winners, and good trainer. True Quality may be good in the slop.
I have to wait and see what kind of condition the track is in, but leaning toward Ravalo, Fleet Valid, Roaring Lion, Sacred Journey, and True Quality right now, with Ravalo in the WIN position.
gotta look up the wet stats.I just revisited the pp's and i also am wary of the dutrow horse.Improving lines ,his connections when he was a 3 yr old entered him in graded stakes and he placed in a gr 3.Good tomlinson in the slop, and a sharp 5f work oct 20th lots to like here.Maybe a few exactas ah day over sacred journey,true quality and ravalo providing they are paying an overlaid price.I will also be checking the prices on ah day over vineyard haven.
bisket
10-24-2009, 10:08 AM
dutrow's will be in the money. the entire field field are all speed types, and a good many want the lead. they all like exact same time for the first half. closers will win. ah day gets the set up he likes, and his best races are off a layoff. he's raced at this leve and has some of the best speed figs in the field. especially when he gets the pace he likes. peace chant is being underestimated. some may be impressed with vineyard's last one but i'm not. the two overlays in this one are good bets
bisket
10-24-2009, 12:08 PM
track will be fast. i'm dropping peace chant. he didn't work for 3 weeks after last race. that cancels him out. bisket rule #2 never bet a horse who hasn't worked in about two weeks after last race
joanied
10-24-2009, 01:43 PM
Should be a smoker...fun to watch.
I love Vineyard Haven, but think the 6 is too short for him...
1-Scared Journey
2-Vineyard Haven
3-Ah Day
4-Ravalo
Good luck with your bets today everyone.
Laurel...man, takes me back!!
:)
the_fat_man
10-24-2009, 01:45 PM
Should be a smoker...fun to watch.
I love Vineyard Haven, but think the 6 is too short for him...
WOW :rolleyes:
slew101
10-24-2009, 02:41 PM
No. 3 Ravalo for me with No. 1 Vineyard Haven in the exacta.
toetoe
10-24-2009, 02:45 PM
Ravalo and Peace Chant are my picks. Maybe save under Vineyard Haven in perfectas.
joanied
10-24-2009, 02:52 PM
WOW :rolleyes:
Care to explain your reply to my post :confused:
TurfRuler
10-24-2009, 03:12 PM
October 24, 2009
Laurel – Frank J. De Frances Memorial Dash Stakes – Grade I
Turf Ruler Order
5-1 #5 True Quality TR 112, front runner, Grade II class, consistency 24; comments: Ready for this action, the shorter the better.
8-5 #1 Vineyard Haven TR 107, front runner, Grade I class, consistency 19; comments: Will put his foot down like the Clydesdale or a well trained circus performer.
8-1 #3 Ravalo TR 91, closer, Grade II class, consistency 24; comments: Don’t under estimate his chances, is well placed wherever he goes.
12-1 #9 Ah Day TR 86, Grade I class, closer, consistency 12; comments: My favorite but not Ravalo’s.
9-2 #4 Fleet Valid TR 80, front runner, Stakes class, consistency 26; comments: Who says there is no such thing as class, just watch this one.
6-1 #2 Roaring Lion TR 77, front runner, GR II class, consistency 12; comments: Another pretender for an upgrade in Graded Company, too many front runner and Ravalo to prove best.
15-1 #7 Sacred Journey TR 72, front runner, Stakes class, consistency 16; comments: If this one wins I’m calling Andy.
12-1 #6 Peace Chant TR 68, closer, Stakes class, closer, consistency 9; comments: Can’t believe in the hot weather invader, yet he closes with a rush.
bisket
10-24-2009, 04:39 PM
1$ tri box
:1: vineyard haven
:3: ravalo
:7: sacred journey
:9: ah day
2$ tri box
:3: - :7: - :9:
5$ win ah day
will probably add an exacta either up the win bet on ah day or add another win bet. i'll wait until a little closer to race time to decide.
bisket
10-24-2009, 05:01 PM
i don't see any real track bias. speed has won about as many times today as closers. if you got to fast early you get punished at the end. if you go to slow the speed holds. thats why the four horse tri is appropriate. this is what you see the majority of times at laurel and pimlico. no real bias and a fair track. the one bias you will see at md tracks is alot of times horses in the three and four path have an edge.
Aerocraft67
10-24-2009, 05:04 PM
I'm mostly with Bisket but I like :4: more than :9:
bisket
10-24-2009, 05:05 PM
track is sealed and sloppy
bisket
10-24-2009, 05:17 PM
5$ exacta box
:7: - :9:
bisket
10-24-2009, 05:18 PM
i think sacred keeps vineyard pinned on the rail!!!!
Aerocraft67
10-24-2009, 05:21 PM
Keyed :4: with :3: :7: :9: in exacta.
bisket
10-24-2009, 05:28 PM
impressive winning on the inside in the slop at laurel is no easy task
the_fat_man
10-24-2009, 05:30 PM
impressive winning on the inside in the slop at laurel is no easy task
As all the experts would tell you, horses don't like to run on the inside.:rolleyes:
bisket
10-24-2009, 05:33 PM
well at laurel the inside is the worst pat of the track. its very slow when its wet. obviously you beat the bias. hats off at 4-5 and beating the bias. he's a bet against in my book every time. it tip my cap
CBedo
10-24-2009, 05:34 PM
It didn't seem he loved the footing, and I don't think it's his best distance, but he was just so much better than these that he was able to overcome it all.
the_fat_man
10-24-2009, 05:37 PM
well at laurel the inside is the worst pat of the track. its very slow when its wet. obviously you beat the bias. hats off at 4-5 and beating the bias. he's a bet against in my book every time. it tip my cap
I didn't bet the race. What you think is a tough trip figured, in advance, to be a perfect setup for this horse.
WinterTriangle
10-24-2009, 05:39 PM
Bisket, good luck with your pick. I haven't handicapped it thoroughly yet but those Malibu Moon's are doing well, Devil May Care won the Frizzette Stakes recently....
It's anyone's race.
Ravalo has 9 stakes wins at this distance, and like Ah Day, should stalk the pace and come closing. Fleet Valid is coming off 4 straight wins, Roaring Lion is in good form and is 3 for 3, and I'm also looking at Sacred Journey, who has 3 wins at this distance, good post position for winners, and good trainer. True Quality may be good in the slop.
I have to wait and see what kind of condition the track is in, but leaning toward Ravalo, Fleet Valid, Roaring Lion, Sacred Journey, and True Quality right now, with Ravalo in the WIN position.
gotta look up the wet stats.
I didn't end up playing, looked too chalky, but I took out Roaring Lion, decided he was a pretender not up to this.
Vineyard did great and pulled it off in the end. My other runners were all in the superfecta.
Not sure what the argument is about the fat man, at 8/5 VH was a bet against for anyone playing. Bisket is a good handicapper, posts his picks and they are often right on. Nothin' wroing with really liking a horse, like Richard's Kid ya know
VH *barely* pulled it off.
joanied
10-24-2009, 05:54 PM
Well, I didn't do good...but I am very glad that VH pulled it off...I haven't seen the replay yet, I missed watching TVG/HRTV today...but, I like VH so much...happy:jump: he won!!
PS...hey, fat man...you still haven't explained your reply to my post:bang:
CBedo
10-24-2009, 05:58 PM
I didn't end up playing, looked too chalky, but I took out Roaring Lion, decided he was a pretender not up to this.
Vineyard did great and pulled it off in the end. My other runners were all in the superfecta.
Not sure what the argument is about the fat man, at 8/5 VH was a bet against for anyone playing. Bisket is a good handicapper, posts his picks and they are often right on. Nothin' wroing with really liking a horse, like Richard's Kid ya know
VH *barely* pulled it off.I disagree on the bet against at 8/5. At 4/5 or even money, I totally agree. At 8/5 I'm emptying the bank account on him in this spot. On my line, I had him winning 50-60% of the time.
I didn't think he was a play against at any odds, which was the point I was trying to make. There are times to play against the favorite, and times to watch. This was the latter.
I'm interested in hearing what the jock had to say about VH in the stretch. Appeared to me he found better footing / extra gear along the rail late in the race. At least in comparison to how he looked during the rest of the race comfort wise.
the_fat_man
10-24-2009, 06:55 PM
I didn't think he was a play against at any odds, which was the point I was trying to make. There are times to play against the favorite, and times to watch. This was the latter.
One way I gauge the quality of the opinion of forum participants is by which horses they try to beat.
When I read that they're throwing this horse out or think 6F is too short for him or that he'll be battling for the lead, I tend to think that some reevaluation is needed.
toetoe
10-24-2009, 07:21 PM
One way I gauge the quality of the opinion of forum participants is by which horses they try to beat.
When I read that they're throwing this horse out or think 6F is too short for him or that he'll be battling for the lead, I tend to think that some reevaluation is needed.
I like to gauge the willingness to engage in respectful give-and-take with others sharing one's passion, if not one's picks. Still raveling and reraveling this thread.
the_fat_man
10-24-2009, 07:25 PM
I like to gauge the willingness to engage in respectful give-and-take with others sharing one's passion, if not one's picks. Still raveling and reraveling this thread.
I forget which historical figure referred to another of his era as 'The Great Paradoxer', because the latter made the simple difficult in his exposition. To read even a few of your posts is to know what he meant. :bang:
WinterTriangle
10-24-2009, 07:35 PM
I like to gauge the willingness to engage in respectful give-and-take with others sharing one's passion
:ThmbUp:
Being right is what I hope to do when actually placing a wager.
Talking on forums about race outcomes, and giving one's reasoning, is about contributing one's time and thought toward a discussion, and participating in commraderie among people who enjoy this sport.
I wasn't aware that posters were being *judged* here. Is it a contest--- or a discussion forum?
Anyone who has to come behind afterwards and laugh or deride others perplexes me.:confused: A simple: I don't agree and here's why would suffice?:sleeping:
WinterTriangle
10-24-2009, 08:05 PM
CB and CJ,
I get ya. You believed in the horse, so 8/5 wasn't a problem.
I think it also depends on your wagering style / bankroll. For *me*, he was a bet against, actually, a non wager, simply because:
I have a limited amount to play with every week, so if I have a choice about an 8/5 that will "probably win", and an 18-1 that nobody else thinks will win but I feel strongly about, I'm going with the latter.
A strong win wager for me, at my level of comfort and , would be $50. That's about all I have to risk on one race. And I only have about 5 races in any weekend where I would play it.
I would get $87.50 on VH, minus my $50 win bet, for a profit of $37.50. On Ariana D, in a race I was discussing in another topic, I got $1,100 for my win bet.
I guess I meant for *me*, VH was either a bet against or a no wager. It wasn't enough of a play for me to feel strongly about. At $1.60 profit per $2.00, I'm just not willing to put a $500 wager on an 8/5 horse to make $400. It's way too big of a risk for me to wager $500.
bisket
10-24-2009, 08:55 PM
I'm interested in hearing what the jock had to say about VH in the stretch. Appeared to me he found better footing / extra gear along the rail late in the race. At least in comparison to how he looked during the rest of the race comfort wise.
vineyard ran evenly in the stretch. while the others were backing up. which was why i liked ah day. yes ah day hasn't ran this year to his previous capabilities, but until today he hasn't had a race set up to his liking either. other than the tobaggan. after today i believe he's lost something. many handicappers tend to make decisions like this because the horse just hasn't raced well this year. ah day has only been in one race like today that set up to his liking, and he won that one. by sticking with horses of this sort i'll win more cake than i'll lose. some may be critical, but i've got big shoulders and can handle it. ah day didn't race to his previous capabilities today, but if he had i'd be reasonably happy right now. still wouldn't have hit the exotics, but would have been no worse to the wear. the fact of the matter is vineyard breaks well and runs an even race afterwards. he's still vulnerable to a good closing sprinter, and i'll be there to pounce again. it appears kodiak will probably be the one to collar him in the future. i'll get my cake back in that one.
bisket
10-24-2009, 09:00 PM
incidentally who made vineyard look so good in the last one? speed backing up!!
bisket
10-24-2009, 09:09 PM
anybody who can say with a certain amount of smugness that vineyard was a lock today only loses money slowly at the track.
anybody who can say with a certain amount of smugness that vineyard was a lock today only loses money slowly at the track.
If you mean me, I never said he was a lock. I said he was a horse I would not want to bet against because he was vastly superior to the others on his best day. Since, in my opinion and on my numbers, his best day was his last race, I wanted no parts of trying to beat him.
I'd like to know how choosing not to bet against a superior favor makes somebody a loser.
CBedo
10-24-2009, 10:02 PM
anybody who can say with a certain amount of smugness that vineyard was a lock today only loses money slowly at the track.If 50-60% chance to win is a "lock," I guess I said that, but I don't think a legit even money shot is ever a lock! I just had similar thoughts to CJ (shocker since I was using his numbers), and thought Vineyard Haven was heads and shoulders over these today.
bisket
10-24-2009, 10:25 PM
if your not that certain that a 4-5 choice is going to win. thats an excellant betting opportunity. if you think he's going to win then you play the exotic straight. he only won by a 1/2 length. if valid and sacred trade spots i've got a 120$ tri win, but thats the breaks. if ah day runs his usual race on a setup like this i'm really looking good. there were only two horses moving forward at the end, and all they were doing was running evenly. ah day and vineyard. if ah day is closing like usual he's right there at the end.
WinterTriangle
10-24-2009, 10:25 PM
How bad did VH bump roaring lion in the stretch? Seems that RL fell back from that.
CBedo
10-24-2009, 10:56 PM
if your not that certain that a 4-5 choice is going to win. thats an excellant betting opportunity. if you think he's going to win then you play the exotic straight. he only won by a 1/2 length. if valid and sacred trade spots i've got a 120$ tri win, but thats the breaks. if ah day runs his usual race on a setup like this i'm really looking good. there were only two horses moving forward at the end, and all they were doing was running evenly. ah day and vineyard. if ah day is closing like usual he's right there at the end.If a frog had wings..... :rolleyes:
j/k, I understand what you're saying. What do you think Vineyard's fair odds should have been?
Bochall
10-24-2009, 11:10 PM
What I saw today was a horse winning on pure class. VH clearly wasnt his best and Garcia was riding him into the turn, seemingly to no avail, but he appeared to regain his footing in the lane and catch sight of his competition. He just ran 'em down from there. I posted earlier that Ravalo was clearly the play here at 8-1 ML and I tried to beat VH...too bad for me. I believe I was 'thinking right' in trying to beat an underlaid VH (he is now a 4 time Gr 1 winner...errrrrr, make that 3 via DQ). Yeah, maybe a saver VH-Ravalo-all tri was in order...Anyway, I did get a nice thrill with the 7 leading into the lane and Ravalo at his neck (see my earlier post). Thought I was home with a nice win bet on Ravalo, too. Shucks!
Ah day is not of this caliber anymore. He is over the hill and has been all year. He will never run back to his best races, probably not even back to his last two wins, which were inferior to today's race by an easy margin. Cheap ungraded stakes are the brightest his future holds. Six year old do not recover thier graded stakes past very often, especially those who fail to contest the pace. 108....98....94....92...his last four wins. I see a trend.
bisket
10-24-2009, 11:20 PM
3 to 1 he figured to be on the inside the entire race, and with his running style 7-8 furs are his best distance. for a sprinter he actually runs an even race other than the first 1/4. this isn't a good running style for sprints. a good sprinter has the ability to run a 11 second furlong in either the last 1/4 or the second to last 1/4. he has yet to do this. so he's vulnerable to either a speed horse that doesn't fade or a closer. he doesn't have a quick burst to beat them. his last two wins have been picture perfect set ups. fading speed, and closers who get held up in the stretch or don't show up. thats the only type of race that he'll be capable of winning. in another words he can't control his own destiny as far as winning. he depends on others inability or racing luck.
Bochall
10-24-2009, 11:24 PM
Tom is right. Ah Day has seen his best days. Hope they retire him instead of sssssssssliding down the class ladder. My favorite horse, Phantom On Tour, wound up a piss ant 4k Clm at Penn.
bisket
10-24-2009, 11:26 PM
Ah day is not of this caliber anymore. He is over the hill and has been all year. He will never run back to his best races, probably not even back to his last two wins, which were inferior to today's race by an easy margin. Cheap ungraded stakes are the brightest his future holds. Six year old do not recover thier graded stakes past very often, especially those who fail to contest the pace. 108....98....94....92...his last four wins. I see a trend.
that was not evident until today. he depends on a certain set up for his wins. which i explained in my thoughts before the race. this is the first time he recieved the set up and didn't win. if you made that judgement before this race you got lucky today. he's like macho again without his set up he appears ordinary. his other races this year are nothing new. he's looked ordinary many times before and come back to look like a million bucks when he gets the race he likes.
bisket
10-24-2009, 11:29 PM
ah day is breed and owned by king leatherbury, and i don't ever see leatherbury running him for a tag. he may continue to race him as long as he's competitive, but he's not going to chance losing him. he may not be a graded stakes horse anymore but he can still win races.
the_fat_man
10-24-2009, 11:45 PM
Tom is right. Ah Day has seen his best days.
Ummmm
Even if Ah Day runs his best race, he still doesn't win today. Not only does he need the race to collapse but he needs to last move the closers. I don't have charts for all his races but he's certainly never run AGAINST the grain in a field that was even remotely as good as the one he faced today.
The analysis today was a joke. People are expecting the race to collapse and plugs like Ah Day to pick up the pieces. But VH never figured to go to the lead as he was cutting back and just wasn't fast enough to run early with the speed. And, if this weren't enough, he certainly wasn't going to do it from the rail. (Even the shuffle back was predictable.) In other words, VH figured to get the perfect trip that he did (in terms of setup and ground covered). Even with Garcia pushing him early, a dumbass ride, he still won because he's just better. One would think this was obvious.
bisket
10-24-2009, 11:49 PM
3 to 1 he figured to be on the inside the entire race, and with his running style 7-8 furs are his best distance. for a sprinter he actually runs an even race other than the first 1/4. this isn't a good running style for sprints. a good sprinter has the ability to run a 11 second furlong in either the last 1/4 or the second to last 1/4. he has yet to do this. so he's vulnerable to either a speed horse that doesn't fade or a closer. he doesn't have a quick burst to beat them. his last two wins have been picture perfect set ups. fading speed, and closers who get held up in the stretch or don't show up. thats the only type of race that he'll be capable of winning. in another words he can't control his own destiny as far as winning. he depends on others inability or racing luck.
cbedo what i'm trying to explain is that vineyard needed an opportune set up like ah day, and he got it. thats not a good bet unless you can at least triple your earnings playing him to win.
bisket
10-24-2009, 11:54 PM
i don't know if we were watching the same race, but the race did fall apart. they ran a 12 4/5 last 1/4. its just a shame that this happens and theres no longshot there to capitalize for the poor old bisket
Bochall
10-24-2009, 11:55 PM
Even if Ah Day runs his best race, he still doesn't win today. Thats what I meant when I said he's seen his best days. He was nowhere in my analysis or on my ticket. Simmer dude. I thought the trip was the only thing that could beat VH, and it damn near did. There was VALUE in Ravalo IMO, so I took my shot with him. Tough tits for me.
CBedo
10-24-2009, 11:58 PM
cbedo what i'm trying to explain is that vineyard needed an opportune set up like ah day, and he got it. thats not a good bet unless you can at least triple your earnings playing him to win.I totally understand what you're saying. I don't necessarily agree 100%, but I understand and respect the position. That's why this intellectual challenge we call handicapping is so awesome!
And I do appreciate you explaining your thinking. I'll always listen to anyone who can help me get a little better at this thing.
bisket
10-25-2009, 12:03 AM
i actually thought ravalo would end up at 3-4 to 1. there was a write up in the front page of our local paper today, and thought he would be hit harder than he was. thats why i played him in the tri, but didn't put anymore money on him. the biggest overlay of the whole race ended up being sacred journey at 18-1.
bisket
10-25-2009, 12:07 AM
Ummmm
Even if Ah Day runs his best race, he still doesn't win today. Not only does he need the race to collapse but he needs to last move the closers. I don't have charts for all his races but he's certainly never run AGAINST the grain in a field that was even remotely as good as the one he faced today.
The analysis today was a joke. People are expecting the race to collapse and plugs like Ah Day to pick up the pieces. But VH never figured to go to the lead as he was cutting back and just wasn't fast enough to run early with the speed. And, if this weren't enough, he certainly wasn't going to do it from the rail. (Even the shuffle back was predictable.) In other words, VH figured to get the perfect trip that he did (in terms of setup and ground covered). Even with Garcia pushing him early, a dumbass ride, he still won because he's just better. One would think this was obvious.
do you just make this stuff up. inside on a muddy track is a picture perfect setup?
Ah Day is way, way past his best. He has had several races with favorable set ups and has shown he just isn't good enough any more for this type race.
The horse followed a 7 month layoff with a poor race and another 6 month layoff. He hasn't come close to replicating his earlier ability, even when winning, in his next eight races.
bisket
10-25-2009, 12:39 AM
Ah Day is way, way past his best. He has had several races with favorable set ups and has shown he just isn't good enough any more for this type race.
The horse followed a 7 month layoff with a poor race and another 6 month layoff. He hasn't come close to replicating his earlier ability, even when winning, in his next eight races.
and exactly which races did he get his set up and lose because i don't see them
toetoe
10-25-2009, 12:04 PM
I forget which historical figure referred to another of his era as 'The Great Paradoxer', because the latter made the simple difficult in his exposition. To read even a few of your posts is to know what he meant. :bang:
Thanks for the flattery and the tip. I shall now reread as many of my posts as possible ... unless I don't. Please help me with an out-of-yer-@$$ diagnosis, Doctor. :cool: .
and exactly which races did he get his set up and lose because i don't see them
The Carter for one. But even in those he won when getting his set up as you say, he didn't run fast enough to beat quality stakes horses.
toetoe
10-25-2009, 12:14 PM
The analysis today was a joke ... One would think this was obvious.
Are you Alec Baldwin, sir ?
My reasoning:
1) You are always right.
2) You know it, and you willingly share this knowledge.
3) You put the apostates, those that dare to disagree and/or fail to grasp your point, into their places.
4) You are a master of the subjunctive mood.
Sincerely,
Kitty Carlisle
P.S. Do I win ? Am I right ? :jump: . (:Squealing.)
bisket
10-25-2009, 02:28 PM
The Carter for one. But even in those he won when getting his set up as you say, he didn't run fast enough to beat quality stakes horses.
this field was no better than the field he faced in the toboggan.
o_crunk
10-25-2009, 02:50 PM
ah day is breed and owned by king leatherbury, and i don't ever see leatherbury running him for a tag. he may continue to race him as long as he's competitive, but he's not going to chance losing him. he may not be a graded stakes horse anymore but he can still win races.
Ah Day was in for 100k tag in July at DEL.
the_fat_man
10-25-2009, 03:03 PM
Field, in order of finish
CARTER
Kodiak Kowboy
Fabulous Strike
Driven By Success
Biker Boy
True Quality
Ah Day
Understatement
Tale of Ekati
TOBOGGAN
Ah Day
Eternal Star
Saint Daimon
Lucky Island
Driven By Success
Joey P.
West Coast Flier
Grand Champion
Place Your Bet
No doubt, not much difference in the quality of these fields. :rolleyes:
Imriledup
10-25-2009, 04:16 PM
This was a tough loss for the serious players who bet against a horrible 4-5 shot who figured to be shuffled from post 1 and get mud kicked in his face. He climbed on the turn and appeared done. Good win for the dummies who made this horse 4-5.
This was a tough loss for the serious players who bet against a horrible 4-5 shot who figured to be shuffled from post 1 and get mud kicked in his face. He climbed on the turn and appeared done. Good win for the dummies who made this horse 4-5.
Most smart handicappers knew not to try to beat this horse. It does not mean they bet on him. Your definition of a horrible 4 to 5 is vastly different from mine. He was by a ton the most talented horse in the field.
bisket, come on, you can't possibly compare those fields. The pace was very fast, fast enough that KK could run down Fabulous Strike, while Ah Day couldn't come close.
CBedo
10-25-2009, 04:34 PM
Most smart handicappers knew not to try to beat this horse. It does not mean they bet on him. Your definition of a horrible 4 to 5 is vastly different from mine. He was by a ton the most talented horse in the fieldFor sure! If he hadn't been on the Laurel rail covered by a couple other speed horses and the track had been fast, 4/5 would have been a good bet.
bisket
10-25-2009, 07:17 PM
i think you both misunderstood what i said. i said this field wasn't any better than THE TOBAGGAN field!!!!!! his race in the carter was just like his other race in the carter a few years back. i want to be sure i understand what you two are saying because trust me your gonna hear about it again. :p you are saying that vineyard haven is in the same league with kodiak cowboy and fabulous strike?
o_crunk
10-25-2009, 08:27 PM
i think you both misunderstood what i said. i said this field wasn't any better than THE TOBAGGAN field!!!!!! his race in the carter was just like his other race in the carter a few years back. i want to be sure i understand what you two are saying because trust me your gonna hear about it again. :p you are saying that vineyard haven is in the same league with kodiak cowboy and fabulous strike?
I'll say VH is in the same league as Fabulous Strike and Kodiak Kowboy.
Fabulous Strike is one of my favorites but he hasn't won a G1 this year. Earlier in the summer he ducked the added weight & Munnings at 7F in the Tom Fool. He lost to True Quality in February at Laurel. VH crushed True Quality yesterday and beat Munnings in the King's Bishop (off a layoff).
Kodiak Kowboy could be a different animal now after getting the change back to Assmussen and typical move up. His form was in and out under Larry Jones.
I don't see anyway VH would not be competitive against those two.
bisket
10-25-2009, 08:33 PM
true quality didn't beat anyone yesterday
http://drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=LRL&CTY=USA&DATE=20091024&RN=9
o_crunk
10-25-2009, 08:38 PM
true quality didn't beat anyone yesterday
http://drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=LRL&CTY=USA&DATE=20091024&RN=9
Yeah, exactly. :rolleyes: :bang: :confused:
postpicker
10-26-2009, 12:19 AM
What has True Quality done this year to merit any respect. Yes he won the General George, but when he was alone on the lead going the half in :47 1/5 in a seven furlong race, even a cheap claimer can win with a pace advantage like that. I can't think of the last graded sprint stakes (7 furlongs and shorter) with a half as slow or slower than this year's General George. Plus, chances are Paragallo is doing the hidden ownership again like he did with his daughters, so you know who is still calling the shots. The linemaker making him 5-1 ML third choice yesterday is absurd. He needs his head examined for that one.
WinterTriangle
10-26-2009, 12:35 AM
What has True Quality done this year to merit any respect. Yes he won the General George, but when he was alone on the lead going the half in :47 1/5 in a seven furlong race, even a cheap claimer can win with a pace advantage like that. I can't think of the last graded sprint stakes (7 furlongs and shorter) with a half as slow or slower than this year's General George. Plus, chances are Paragallo is doing the hidden ownership again like he did with his daughters, so you know who is still calling the shots. The linemaker making him 5-1 ML third choice yesterday is absurd. He needs his head examined for that one.
PP the only reason I put TQ in my exotic was because of the off track. If the track wasn't slop, I would not have put him in because he is was too slow against these. Perhaps thats what the linemaker was thinking. TQ had a shot in mud
bisket
10-26-2009, 08:24 PM
still no word from the speed handicappers who love betting the fav all the time. cj and cbedo is vineyard haven in the same league as kodiak kowboy and favorite strike?
CBedo
10-26-2009, 08:39 PM
I tend not to make broad comparisons out of the context of a specific race, but I'll try to take a look at the numbers I used in their last races. CJ would be the better person to comment on ability since they are his numbers and he probably knows what they both ran in their last race.
bisket
10-26-2009, 08:54 PM
try not to make broad comparisons? you said vineyard was head and shoulders above the other horses in the defrancis dash. well ah day finished 3 lengths back from kodiak and strike in the carter. that would say to me that kodiak and strkie are better than ah day, but that's not "head and shoulders better". the statement you made about vineyard. one of the biggest things i use when handicapping male horses is class. when ah day got two 22 second first 1/4's in a sprint previously i rated him ON THE SAME LEVEL CLASS WISE AS VINEYARD!!. just a notch below kodiak and strike!! which was the basis of my wager. i didn't rate anyone in this field as a top of the heap grade 1 sprinter, and still don't.
try not to make broad comparisons? you said vineyard was head and shoulders above the other horses in the defrancis dash. well ah day finished 3 lengths back from kodiak and strike in the carter. that would say to me that kodiak and strkie are better than ah day, but that's not "head and shoulders better". the statement you made about vineyard. one of the biggest things i use when handicapping male horses is class. when ah day got two 22 second first 1/4's in a sprint previously i rated him ON THE SAME LEVEL CLASS WISE AS VINEYARD!!. just a notch below kodiak and strike!! which was the basis of my wager. i didn't rate anyone in this field as a top of the heap grade 1 sprinter, and still don't.
Sure, I think Vineyard Haven is in their league, but not just because of figures. He has won 4, count them, 4 G1 races at 6f, 7f twice, and a mile. His poor efforts came first in the mud, and second in Dubai.
As for Ah Day, he sat way off a blistering pace in the Carter and was beaten nearly four lengths while never a factor to horses that were much closer to that same pace. He was a total non factor. There is a lot more to this game than beaten lengths at the finish. Even if there weren't, 4 lengths is quite a bit...about the difference between winning a G1 and a money allowance. He had his preferred setup and ran basically the same race he did in the Toboggan, just against much better horses.
Listen, we all posted our opinions before the race. Some were right, some were wrong. In my case, I said a favorite was going to be very tough to beat...big effing deal, I was right this time.
Most of us are wrong much more than we are right in this game. Some of us just handle it better than others apparently.
I'll jump in...I think he will be in or above those two eventually. His numbers look explosive and his handling of the bad trip Saturday impressed the hell out of me. His numbers going in were not any I would bet against. I like horse that show his pattern early on. Hey, remember, Forego got 4th in Secretariats' Derby. He turned out pretty nice.;)
bisket
10-26-2009, 09:43 PM
i don't rate 2 year old wins with older horse wins. i have a short memory when it comes to twoyear olds. i just think he's been placed well these last two. i don't like horses that run evenly in sprints. i like horses with some explosion. whether its early or late makes no difference. if theres a large group in the race that likes the lead i go with the horse with the late burst. if it appears the early speed will go without a challenge by another class horse i like them for the win. most time even type runners are a good bet to fill out the exacta. the beyer for this race is way to high, and isn't based on sound information. i think the track was still pretty quick. its obvious they changed the criteria for this race as opposed to the others on saturday because of the rain. incidentally a horse that runs like vineyard, and doesn't like dirt in his face is a bad combination.
CBedo
10-26-2009, 09:46 PM
try not to make broad comparisons? you said vineyard was head and shoulders above the other horses in the defrancis dash. well ah day finished 3 lengths back from kodiak and strike in the carter. that would say to me that kodiak and strkie are better than ah day, but that's not "head and shoulders better". the statement you made about vineyard. one of the biggest things i use when handicapping male horses is class. when ah day got two 22 second first 1/4's in a sprint previously i rated him ON THE SAME LEVEL CLASS WISE AS VINEYARD!!. just a notch below kodiak and strike!! which was the basis of my wager. i didn't rate anyone in this field as a top of the heap grade 1 sprinter, and still don't.Stop twisting my words Bisk! I said "out of the context of a specific race." I said VH was heads and shoulders over this group in this race, and that is what I meant, nothing less, nothing more. It might or might not make sense to relate VH to Kodiak by way of beaten lengths of Ah Day. If it does, then it might matter that I thought VH hated this track and where he was down on the rail and still got it done, which could imply that he is better than he showed here, but that's for me to determine later probably.
I'm not saying anything about anything else except this race. I got it right for once. Maybe it was just luck, maybe it wasn't, but who cares now? It was just one race. I'm over it....
Bochall
10-26-2009, 10:15 PM
. His numbers look explosive and his handling of the bad trip Saturday impressed the hell out of me. His numbers going in were not any I would bet against. I like horse that show his pattern early on. .;)
See Tom, we do have some common ground...when it comes to the horses! My thoughts exactly regarding VH. Methinks it was class class class that carried him through when he was taking the worst of it down low on the rail...impressive.
bisket
10-27-2009, 08:27 PM
cj and cbedo. i'm just trying to get some insight on the statements you made. i always look at who other handicappers are playing. without knowing what insights another handicapper uses to make their choices its hard to understand why another handicapper likes a certain horse or decides against another. i now know that cj takes a horses 2 year old performances into consideration for graded races against older horses. i don't. so i now know why he''l pick a horse in the future with a similar line. bottom line on my feelings before the race is there wasn't enough information in vineyards past performances that says to me he's a legitimate grade 1 sprinter. which is why i went against him. there were plenty of others in this race that seemed to be knocking on the door to graded status. so there was a questionable grade 1 sprinter; class wise; running against a bunch that were testing the graded stakes waters. ah day is not quite grade1 (never was), and he seems to have slipped from graded staus period. one thing to keep in mind with an older horse that closes like ah day is that they pretty much begin to run their own races, and if it appears to them they can't reach the front they'll just pack it in. so this years carter was a throwout for me.
bisket
10-28-2009, 08:37 PM
also in response to the beaten lengths in the carter. if the carter were run in 112 ah day would have been 3-4 lengths off the winners. if it were run in 107 and change ah day would have been 3-4 lengths of the winners. its plain to see you don't take into consideration class in your handicapping.
Robert Fischer
10-28-2009, 10:49 PM
there wasn't enough information in vineyards past performances that says to me he's a legitimate grade 1 sprinter.
that's fine but if that is the case, then you have to say there isn't a rival close to grade 1 status in that field.
also in response to the beaten lengths in the carter. if the carter were run in 112 ah day would have been 3-4 lengths off the winners. if it were run in 107 and change ah day would have been 3-4 lengths of the winners. its plain to see you don't take into consideration class in your handicapping.
He just finished first, though DQed, in a G1 at Saratoga. Say what you will about it being for 3yos, but at that time of year it is a very classy race. Nothing else in the field was above the G3 level at best, and most weren't that good any longer.
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